[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Movsar Evloev vs. Dan Ige
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Trizano
Poliana Botelho vs. Karine Silva
Alonzo Menifield vs. Askar Mozharov
Felice Herrig vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

ESPN+ 1:00 pm ET
Alex Da Silva vs. Joe Solecki
Daniel Argueta vs. Damon Jackson
Zarrukh Adashev vs. Ode Osbourne
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Niklas Stolze
Tony Gravely vs. Johnny Munoz
Jeff Molina vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Rinat Fahretdinov vs. Andreas Michailidis
JJ Aldrich vs. Erin Blanchfield

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -




135 lbs.: Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Tony Gravely

The UFC debut for Johnny Munoz Jr. (11-1) pitted him against Nate Maness, who survived “Kid Kvenbo’s” grappling onslaught to hand him his first-ever defeat. Jamey Simmons wasn’t so lucky, succumbing to Munoz’s rear-naked choke midway through the second round.
All nine of his stoppage wins have come within two rounds.
A one-sided rout of Ray Rodriguez on Contender Series capped off a seven-fight win streak for Tony Gravely (22-7), punching his ticket to the Octagon proper. He’s since gone 3-2, including a decision over fellow Contender Series alum Saimon Oliveira in his most recent effort.
He stands four inches shorter than Munoz and gives up two inches of reach.
This is another fight where Gravely will have to walk a tightrope. He’s by far the better boxer and wrestler of the two, but Munoz’s submission game is lethal enough that he only needs one opening to ruin Gravely’s day.
After watching the Oliveira fight, though, I think Gravely can manage. His cardio held up nicely after failing him in the past and he managed to completely neutralize a very dangerous ground game, which bodes well for his chances here. Between his experience and his aforementioned technical advantages, he’s got the tools to control the stand up and sneak in the occasional takedown en route to victory.
Prediction: Gravely via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Jeff Molina vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Jeff Molina (10-2) kicked off his UFC career in dramatic fashion, as he successfully out-warred Aoriqileng to claim “Fight of the Night” at UFC 261. He was even more successful against Daniel da Silva, whom he knocked out early in the second to secure his ninth consecutive win.
“El Jefe” has secured five submissions and three knockouts during his five years as a professional.
Reeling from consecutive losses to Raulian Paiva and Amir Albazi, Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-6) finally entered UFC’s win column with a vicious guillotine finish of Jerome Rivera. The win earned him a crack at Manel Kape, who wound up handing Zhumagulov his first stoppage loss since 2015.
“Zhako” gives up two inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach to Molina.
You really have to feel for Zhumagulov. That’s because he deserved the win against Paiva and the other losses came against some of the best prospects the division has to offer. Maybe that’s swaying my thinking, but I actually really like his chances here. Molina’s on the wrong end of a speed discrepancy, is the lesser wrestler on paper, and has struggled with aggressive opponents in the past. Zhumagulov has a lot more depth to his striking than Aoriqileng and has the gas tank to maintain his offense late, so I can definitely see him finding greater success against Molina.
The two big areas of concern are the younger Molina’s improvement and Zhumagulov’s confidence, which may be a bit shaky after getting leveled by Kape. Still, Zhumagulov’s output and relentless forward motion should let him punish Molina’s slow start and hold his own once Molina finds his footing.
Prediction: Zhumagulov via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Volkov Battles ‘Bigi Boy’ In Vegas!


170 lbs.: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Andreas Michailidis

Rinat Fakhretdinov (20-2) rode a 13-fight win streak into Lookin’ for a Fight, where he got the chance to face TUF and UFC veteran Eric Spicely in front of Dana White. It’s fair to say “Gladiator” made the most of it, sparking out Spicely cold with a right hand just 55 seconds into the first round.
This marks his first appearance in more than 16 months.
Andreas Michailidis (13-5) put his unsuccessful Octagon debut behind him with a unanimous decision win over K.B. Bhullar. Then came kickboxing legend Alex Pereira, who floored “The Spartan” with a vicious flying knee after spending much of the first round on his back.
His 11 finishes include six (technical) knockouts.
I don’t see Fakhredtinov having a particularly lengthy stint in the Octagon. Despite what the Spicely knockout would have you believe, he’s an incredibly passive grappler who built his record almost exclusively on bottom-of-the-barrel opposition. Luckily for him, Michailidis has most of the same issues, but less stopping power and cardio to compensate.
The only way Michailidis wins this is if the cut to 170 pounds turns him into a completely new fighter, and seeing as he’s already 33 and fighting out of a relatively poor camp, that’s not happening. In short, Fakhretdinov scores regular takedowns and grinds his way to 30-27s across the board.
Prediction: Fakhretdinov via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Erin Blanchfield vs. J.J. Aldrich

Erin Blanchfield (8-1) lived up to her nickname by mauling Contender Series veteran, Sarah Alpar, in her Octagon debut. The next bout for “Cold Blooded” pitted her against fellow prospect, Miranda Maverick, who similarly struggled to handle Blanchfield’s grappling.
She boasts two knockout wins and one submission as a professional.
TUF 23 veteran, J.J. Aldrich, started her UFC career 4-3 before embarking on her current three-fight win streak. The most recent of those wins came over castmate Gillian Robertson, whom Aldrich out-classed on her way to a wide unanimous decision.
She stands one inch taller than Blanchfield and will enjoy a 1.5-inch reach advantage.
I’ve been guilty of underestimating Aldrich in the past. She’s improved considerably throughout her UFC tenure and deserves to be recognized as a genuine threat at 125 pounds.
But man, Blanchfield is something special. Her combination of volume striking, quality wrestling and a lethal top game have turned her into a contender after just two UFC fights. Though Aldrich managed to keep it standing against a very capable takedown artist in Robertson, Blanchfield is both more aggressive than Robertson and much more capable on the feet, meaning she’ll have more success setting up her shots. In the end, expect another strong performance as she holds her own in the standup before dragging Aldrich to the mat and mauling her en route to a wide decision.
Prediction: Blanchfield via unanimous decision



155 lbs.: Joe Solecki vs. Alex da Silva

Joe Solecki (11-3) followed his Contender Series graduation with three straight victories, including a decision over the resurgent Jim Miller. His fourth Octagon effort saw him start strong against Jared Gordon, only to struggle down the stretch en route to a split decision loss.
He gives up 2.5 inches of reach to “Leko” despite being one inch taller.
Though he couldn’t overcome Alexander Yakovlev’s ground game in his UFC debut, Alex da Silva (21-3) got back on track with a decision over “Kazula” Vargas. A year-long layoff followed, which he ended with an entertaining and hard-fought decision loss to Brad Riddell.
All but one of his wins have come inside the distance, 13 of them via knockout.
I genuinely believe da Silva has a lot more potential than he’s shown in the Octagon. He’s certainly got Solecki beat on the feet and can theoretically hold his own in both the wrestling and submission games. The upset’s feasible, but “Leko’s” cardio keeps me from pulling the trigger. He faded badly against Riddell despite largely dominating the first round, which suggests that even if he can shut down Solecki when he’s fresh, he can’t do so for long.
I expect something similar to da Silva’s fights with Yakovlev and Riddell wherein he looks like a million bucks in the first round before fading and allowing Solecki to take over. In the end, Solecki finds his neck in the middle portion of the bout.
Prediction: Solecki via second round submission
145 lbs.: Damon Jackson vs. Daniel Argueta

Damon Jackson (20-4-1) announced his return to the Octagon by stunning Mirsad Bektic on short notice, only to fall to Ilia Topuria his next time out. He’s since won two straight, out-lasting Charles Rosa and submitting Kamuela Kirk in successive efforts.
Fifteen of his 18 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Daniel Argueta (8-0) — Brian Ortega’s first pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 29 — put on one of the season’s best fights, but ultimately fell short in his quarterfinal clash with eventual winner, Ricky Turcios. He has since bounced back by winning and defending the LFA Bantamweight title.
He steps in for Darrick Minner on short notice and makes his second appearance in less than one month.
Even putting aside the fact that Argueta took quite a bit of damage in a five-round war just a few weeks back, this is just a bad match up for him. His style relies on wrestling opponents to the mat and mauling them from top position, which he’ll find incredibly difficult against a far larger man in Jackson who’s a very capable ground artist in his own right. Argueta doesn’t figure to fare much better on the feet, either, as he’s defensively inept and a fair bit less rangy than “The Leech.”
None of this is to say Argueta can’t win — he’s definitely the better wrestler of the two pound-for-pound and his grit is not to be underestimated. Between the short notice, the size difference and the clash of styles, though, I see this going poorly for him. In short, Jackson physically overwhelms him to a decision win.
Prediction: Jackson via unanimous decision
Related
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125 lbs.: Ode Osbourne vs. Zarrukh Adashev

Ode Osbourne (10-4) defied the odds to submit Armando Villareal and claim a UFC contract on Contender Series’ 2019 season. “The Jamaican Sensation” has alternated wins and losses in the Octagon proper, most recently turning aside a late surge to beat C.J. Vergara by decision.
He has submitted five foes and knocked out another three.
Zarrukh Adashev (4-3) Adashev had the misfortune of facing Tyson Nam and Sumudaerji in his first two UFC bouts, resulting in a winless (0-2) start in the promotion. With his back against the wall, he out-struck Ryan Benoit to secure a spot in the UFC win column.
He stands two inches shorter than Osbourne and gives up eight inches of reach.
I won’t lie and say that Osbourne’s lived up to the promise he appeared to show on Contender Series, but this sure looks winnable for him. Adashev has had real issues navigating reach disparities during his Octagon tenure, and eight inches is significant enough that even a flawed striker like Osbourne should be able to keep him at a distance without issue. Plus, if Adashev does manage to get inside, Osbourne has enough functional wrestling skill to at least disrupt the pure striker with takedown attempts.
The only major concern is Osbourne’s cardio, which should hold up long enough to bank at least two rounds. Expect a repeat of the Vergara fight as he controls the early and middle portions with long-range offense before hanging on to survive a rally.
Prediction: Osbourne via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Niklas Stolze vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Niklas Stolze (12-5) joined the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) on the heels of four consecutive wins, three of them inside the distance. “Green Mask” is still looking for his first UFC victory, however, dropping consecutive bouts to Ramazan Emeev and Jared Gooden.
He’ll enjoy two inches of height and an inch of reach on Saint Denis.
France’s Benoit Saint Denis (8-1) made his name in the Brave CF promotion, racking up four stoppage wins and defeating UFC veteran Luan Santiago along the way. “God of War” wasn’t quite as successful in his UFC debut, which saw him absorb an ungodly amount of punishment from Elizeu “Capoeira” for his first-ever defeat.
All of his wins have come by stoppage, including seven submissions.
Both of these men have a lot to prove after some disastrous performances, but while getting sparked in 68 seconds is never a good look, Stolze actually raised fewer red flags. It’s not just that Saint Denis showed zero defensive skills against Zaleski dos Santos, he couldn’t consistently take or hold down “Capoeira” despite the latter’s historically shaky takedown defense and his own grappling pedigree.
Stolze has a clear edge in speed and technique on the feet and generally does a good job of stopping takedowns and/or getting back to his feet. Even if Saint Denis wasn’t reeling from the beating of a lifetime, it’s just a bad style match up. Once the dust settles, Stolze pieces him up for his first UFC win.
Prediction: Stolze via unanimous decision

[hankcream]

I think there is money to be made on this card but what the fukk is the UFC thinking giving us Herring vs Kowlkawircz as the featured prelim. Thes old hags have no business being in the UFC, Herring has an Only Fans page with foot fetish shit and the other girl has checked out of fighting

Ige & Rozenstruik look like decent dog plays

[JIBBBY]

A few dogs could bark on this card. I'm still capping the fights.

[Brandt Moat]

I am air betting these picks. Got a Cornhole tourney. Ohio will get sportsbook at start on 2023. Driving 2 hours both ways to put in some small wagers is out anyway. Gas prices cuts into the profits. Parlay favs with a plus $$ fighter. Can lower your wager and hopefully still get paid. I like Fakhretdinov (-270),Menifield (-220) with Zumagulov (+160) Play that at +420 for those odds. Longer shot is Munoz (+115), Desilva (+150), Andeshiev (+160) that pays +1300. My best bet is Stolze @ +135. I'm in agreement. Looks like a dog card. GL

[Demonata]

Early fight card.

[JIBBBY]

Early fight card.

Sure is.. I saw that Dem.. I don't like these early cards.

UFC needs to stay consistent especially when the cards are in the US and in Las Vegas. Dana White messing around with my time clock.

[JC2008]

Sure is.. I saw that Dem.. I don't like these early cards.

UFC needs to stay consistent especially when the cards are in the US and in Las Vegas. Dana White messing around with my time clock.

It's early because ESPN is going to show the Boxing 135 lb. unification fight, between George Kambosos and Devin Haney at Marvel Stadium in Australia.

[Demonata]

Sure is.. I saw that Dem.. I don't like these early cards.

UFC needs to stay consistent especially when the cards are in the US and in Las Vegas. Dana White messing around with my time clock.

Me neither buddy. I don't like drinking in afternoon. Prefer night time.

If it's in USA it should always be at night our time.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

It's early because ESPN is going to show the Boxing 135 lb. unification fight, between George Kambosos and Devin Haney at Marvel Stadium in Australia.

Me neither buddy. I don't like drinking in afternoon. Prefer night time.

If it's in USA it should always be at night our time.

To each their own, I love these early fight cards!!

[JIBBBY]

Me neither buddy. I don't like drinking in afternoon. Prefer night time.

If it's in USA it should always be at night our time.

Exactly!

Can't be boozing up in the AM hours! Come night time you'll be burnt and tired out.

[JIBBBY]

It's early because ESPN is going to show the Boxing 135 lb. unification fight, between George Kambosos and Devin Haney at Marvel Stadium in Australia.

I guess. UFC should be priority on ESPN and demand normal time slots. MMA is on the map now and deserves that kind of respect damn it!

[hankcream]

1st dog of the day
1 unit Zhalgas +160

[Merlin21]

30-27?? LMAO .... Come on man

[hankcream]

Screwed by shitty judging once again. What the hell was that idiot who scored it 30-27 Molina watching

3.6 units Menefield ITD -115

[Thrilla]

What a fukkin idiot Mozarov

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

murked em'

[209 Life]

Left hook from hell. Trizano folded

[hankcream]

African power baby
1.5 units Roizenstruik by KO/TKO /DQ +200

[Brandt Moat]

Losing all my air bets makes me realize why you don't put heavy money on just anything. Zumagulov coasted the 3rd rd. and lost a Maority dec. because of it. Hey kid your fighting for your career! Finish the fight. Some of these guys are not even close to the smartest dog running around your house. Making the correct decision on what to do next is most of their problems. Its "NOT" fight I.Q. IT'S I.Q. DeSilva comes out and has good success putting hands on Solecki. He takes Solecki to the mat and that's where the fight went the rest of the way??? Just dumb fooks! As for my Stolze 3 Star Pick(lol) I was betting against Saint Denis being o.k. from his last fight. Frenchies are notorious pucies. Benoit in no way falls into that class. He took a flush knee to the dome and counter punched. A bit of an exaggeration! But, seem to not even notice. Hope ya'll did good!

I am air betting these picks. Got a Cornhole tourney. Ohio will get sportsbook at start on 2023. Driving 2 hours both ways to put in some small wagers is out anyway. Gas prices cuts into the profits. Parlay favs with a plus $$ fighter. Can lower your wager and hopefully still get paid. I like Fakhretdinov (-270),Menifield (-220) with Zumagulov (+160) Play that at +420 for those odds. Longer shot is Munoz (+115), Desilva (+150), Andeshiev (+160) that pays +1300. My best bet is Stolze @ +135. I'm in agreement. Looks like a dog card. GL

[Brandt Moat]

White Russian Power!

African power baby
1.5 units Roizenstruik by KO/TKO /DQ +200

[Brandt Moat]

Sal D'Amato(Known Fixer) had it 29-28. Maness(Another Fixer?) 30-27. I feel some heavier hitter had a chunk on Zhmagulov or a bunch of our types had him in every parlay. Would have killed my 3 leg parlay, if I made it to casino. It's rigged guys. Don't bet heavy on these fights!

Screwed by shitty judging once again. What the hell was that idiot who scored it 30-27 Molina watching

3.6 units Menefield ITD -115