[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Ben Rothwell
Leah Letson vs. Felicia Spencer
Kyle Daukaus vs Roman Dolidze
Julio Arce vs. Song Yadong

ESPN+ 1:00 pm ET
Joel Alvarez vs. Thiago Moises
Andrea Lee vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Miguel Baeza vs Khaos Williams
Collin Anglin vs. Sean Woodson
Courtney Casey vs. Liana Jojua
Rafael Alves vs. Marc Diakiese
Da Un Jung vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu

[hankcream]

Why in the hell would they have Rothwell vs de Lima as the co-main event & Spencer vs Letson on the main card? Every one of the prelim fights are better than those 2 crappy fights.

[Sanity Check]

Its been said prelims of a big UFC PPV event are the best place for young up and coming fighters, looking to make a name for themselves.

Free prelim fights of pay pre view cards, have more viewers and greater exposure. Than $$ fights on the main PPV card.

The conventional wisdom could carry over to televised events. But to be honest I've never heard a clear explanation for the format.

[LBfightlife]

Chaos Williams hits like a heavy weight. Haven't seen his opponent.

Not a fan of Yair but -600 is too expensive to play the blessed express

[Sanity Check]

Yair looked exhausted by round 3 of his last fight with Jeremy Stephens.

The line looks to be set on an assumption Yair won't hang with Max Holloway's 744 significant strike attempts in 25 minute pace.

[magpie878]

Rothwell by sub

[hankcream]

I would rank Baeza & Song Yadong on the same level of a prospect as Sean O’Malley but the UFC isn’t babying them like they do with O’Malley. The UFC gives O’Malley 2 petty easy fights after his 1st loss, these 2 guys have been fighting studs from the beginning

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups MMAMANIA -





145 lbs.: Sean Woodson vs. Collin Anglin

Sean Woodson (8-1) parlayed a flying knee knockout of Terrance McKinney on “Contender Series” into an Octagon career, debuting with a wide decision over Kyle Bochniak. Though he fell victim to a comeback submission from Julian Erosa in his second effort, he bumped his record back over .500 by beating Youssef Zalal one year later.
“The Sniper” stands five inches taller than Anglin and sports an eight-inch reach advantage.
Collin Anglin (8-2) survived a brutal first round to beat Muhammadjon Naimov by decision on “Contender Series,” earning a UFC contract in the process. He wasn’t quite as successful against fellow series graduate Melsik Baghdasaryan, who snapped Anglin’s seven-fight win streak with a brutal second-round head kick.
He has scored four (technical) knockouts as a professional.
Though he usually prefers to fight it out on the feet, Anglin would be well-served leaning on his solid wrestling background. Woodson makes up for his lack of punching power with high volume and a crafty boxing attack that makes excellent use of his towering frame. Unfortunately for Anglin, Woodson seems to have evolved past the point where Anglin could control him on the ground, as both Erosa and Zalal struggled mightily to keep him down.
That said, Erosa did admittedly manage to finally get his wrestling going late in their fight, and Anglin is nothing if not persistent. If he can keep Woodson uncomfortable and sap his gas tank, he’s got a chance to take over. More likely, Woodson racks up another triple-digit striking performance en route to a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Woodson via unanimous decision
Related
COMING. UP. NEXT!

125 lbs.: Cortney Casey vs. Liana Jojua

Cortney Casey (9-9) ended her 4-5 UFC Strawweight run on a loss to Cynthia Calvillo, but started her Flyweight tenure strong with an armbar finish of Mara Borella. The momentum wasn’t to last, as she went on to suffer consecutive losses to Gillian Robertson and J.J. Aldrich.
She’ll have three inches of height and five inches of reach on Jojua.
Liana Jojua (8-4) entered the Octagon on a five-fight win streak, capped off by an upset decision over unbeaten Marina Mokhnatkina. “She-Wolf” is 1-2 since, a comeback submission of Diana Belbita sandwiched between technical knockout losses to Sarah Moras and Miranda Maverick.
Six of her seven professional finishes have come in the first round.
Underwhelming and prone to bizarre judges’ decisions though she may be, There’s more to like about Casey’s UFC run than Jojua’s. The Georgian got mauled in her two defeats and was getting lit up by Belbita before “Warrior Princess” threw the fight away by diving into Jojua’s wheelhouse. Even a striker as technically limited as Casey should take Jojua apart on the feet, and I don’t trust Jojua to replicate the wrestling success Robertson and Aldrich enjoyed against “Cast Iron.”
Casey could absolutely still throw this away or get screwed by the judges, as four of her last five decisions have been split, but her size and raw horsepower should let her batter Jojua standing to the point where not even the most skeptical of judges could take the win from her. Provided she doesn’t foolishly initiate the wrestling on her own, expect an awkward demolition job.
Prediction: Casey via unanimous decision
Related
Watch UFC Live Stream On ESPN+

155 lbs.: Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Alves

An undefeated (3-0) Octagon start — highlighted by a 30-second “Knockout of the Night” of Teemu Packalen — carried Marc Diakiese (14-4) into contention, only for three straight losses to knock him back down the ladder. He got back on track with consecutive decisions over Joe Duffy and Lando Vannata got him back on track, though he fell short against Rafael Alves in his most recent effort.
This will be his first fight in almost 16 months.
Rafael Alves (19-10) entered the world’s largest fight promotion with the Titan FC Featherweight title around his waist and a dominant finish on “Contender Series” behind him, but grievously missed weight ahead of a planned debut against Pat Sabatini. He would not step foot in the Octagon until May 2021, when he dropped a decision to division dark horse Damir Ismagulov.
He has knocked out and submitted seven opponents apiece.
Looking back, they really did throw Diakiese to the sharks, didn’t they? Drakkar Klose, Dan Hooker and Nasrat Haqparast are a hell of a sequence, and Rafael Fiziev’s a scary bastard in his own right. I still think “Bonecrusher” is a solid fighter, and he’s definitely a more reliable one than Alves.
Beyond giving up height and reach, Alves lacks what you might call a “neutral game,” staying passive between his explosive bursts instead of working more traditional techniques in the interim. While he’s waiting for his opportunity to step in with spinning shenanigans or wild flurries, Diakiese will be taking his lead leg apart, and the Brazilian’s lack of set ups will make it difficult for him to actually get into firing range. So long as Diakiese doesn’t shoot headfirst into a guillotine, Diakiese picks him apart at range to re-enter the win column.
Prediction: Diakiese via unanimous decision
Related
Giga: Holloway ‘Easier Fight’ Than Volkanovski

205 lbs.: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Da Un Jung

It took him two tries, but Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-1) finally graduated from “Contender Series” with a head kick knockout of Dennis Bryant, only to suffer a comeback submission loss to Paul Craig in his Octagon debut. “African Savage” has since won two straight, respectively claiming “Fight of the Night” and “Performance of the Night” for his finishes of Carlos Ulberg and Danilo Marques.
He’ll enjoy 4.5 inches of reach on “Sseda.”
Da un Jung (14-2-1) went from starting his pro career 1-2 to rattling off a 10-fight winning streak, which earned him a spot in the Octagon in 2019. He now sits at 3-0-1 in the world’s largest fight promotion, the sole blemish a split draw with Sam Alvey.
His 12 finishes are split 10/2 between knockouts and submissions.
Nothing like throwing two very fun, very flawed fighters at each other and seeing what happens. Nzechukwu continues to win through raw gas mileage, while Jung’s gameness and physicality have thus far made up for his general awkwardness. I don’t see either of them getting through some of the monsters lurking at the top of the division, but I’ll happily tune in to watch either of them go at it.
I like Nzechukwu here. The guy just never stops punching, and though the takedown game Jung showed against William Knight could give him issues, “African Savage” tends to get stronger as the fight goes along. It’s worth remembering that Jung got pieced up by and arguably lost to Sam Alvey despite a massive size advantage, so while he has the firepower edge, Nzechukwu’s going to have a clear edge in significant strikes. In the end, Nzechukwu weathers early trouble like he did against Ulberg and Marques, snowballing to victory through volume punching.
Prediction: Nzechukwu via unanimous decision



125 lbs.: Cynthia Calvillo vs. Andrea Lee

The 5-1-1 Strawweight run for Cynthia Calvillo (9-3-1) came to an end in 2021, when she had her second Octagon scale fail ahead of a draw with Marina Rodriguez. Her Flyweight tenure has been more mixed, as her debut decision over Jessica Eye gave way to losses to Katlyn Chookagian and Jessica Andrade.
She steps in for Eye on less than one month’s notice.
Andrea Lee (12-5) lived up to the hype early in her UFC career with three straight wins, but proceeded to lose three consecutive close decisions to Joanne Calderwood, Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi. “KGB” finally got back on track in May, tapping Antonina Shevchenko with a triangle armbar.
That win marked her fifth professional submission and seventh professional stoppage overall.
This is a last-chance fight for both women, who will see any chance at all of a Flyweight title shot vanish with a loss. Neither has yet fought up to their potential, but while Lee is the more consistent of the two, the stylistic match up is too weighted in Calvillo’s favor. Every single Octagon opponent who’s tried to takedown Lee has done so at least once, and Calvillo’s top game is strong enough that she only really needs one takedown per round to cinch this up.
That’s assuming that Calvillo follows the right gameplan, of course. That’s because we’ve seen her fall in love with her striking before, and that’s an area where “KGB” has a clear edge. Still, Calvillo’s wrestling looks like too potent a weapon for me to pick against her, so expect her to grind out a comfortable decision win.
Prediction: Calvillo via unanimous decision
Related
Watch UFC Live Stream On ESPN+

170 lbs.: Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams

Though he failed to find the finish on “Contender Series,” Miguel Baeza (10-1) got back to ending things early in the Octagon itself, stopping his first three foes and racking up two post-fight bonuses along the way. Then came Santiago Ponzinibbio, who survived “Caramel Thunder’s” brutal low kicks to take over late and claim victory in their “Fight of the Night.”
He has scored seven pro wins by knockout and one by submission.
Khaos Williams (12-2) immediately set the tone for his UFC run by knocking out Alex Morono and Abdul Razak Alhassan in a combined 57 seconds to earn two “Performances of the Night” awards. “The Oxfighter” failed to do the same to Michel Pereira in his next effort, but returned to the win column in June 2021 with a decision over Matt Semelsberger.
He stands one inch shorter than Baeza, but sports a 2.5-inch reach advantage.
I simply do not understand why UFC brass elected to bury this fight on the “Prelims” when the likes of Felicia Spencer vs. Leah Letson got main card billing. This is an immediate frontrunner for “Fight of the Night” between two immensely dangerous strikers, neither of whom is particularly concerned with defense. Indeed, it’s as volatile a match up as they come and Williams tends to make me look stupid, but I favor Baeza.
Between Baeza’s size, better overall striking technique, and game-changing leg kicks, I don’t see Williams’ berserker offense holding up for long. “Caramel Thunder” is durable enough to survive the early blitz, and once he starts compromising Williams’ footwork, “The Oxfighter’s” tendency to leave his chin out while he throws will prove his undoing. In the end, Baeza ends a brutal firefight around the midway point.
Prediction: Baeza via second round technical knockout

[JIBBBY]

Gotta try Yair at those odds.

[povis]

Yair +1000 to win itd is tempting.

[unitedlad]

I think Max gets it done in round 3 or 4.

[magpie878]

Yair +1000 to win itd is tempting.

Since 2/2012, Holloway has lost five fights. All by decision. Good luck.

[Sanity Check]

Bellator 271 later tonight.

[JIBBBY]

Another early start! GL everyone!

I'm liking the dogs in this event and ITD. Let's do this!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Picking Nzechukwu Decision and Diakiese R3 TKO For first two fights. No bets on them though

[PaperTrail07]

what a finish by Jung.....

Cavillo
Baeza
song
anglin

Lets go

[JIBBBY]

Jung Bruce Lee elbowed him to death. Brutal.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

big KO

[PaperTrail07]

Tossed in Alves w the upset here....tough and hopefully juiced

[PaperTrail07]

Bingo Nice Win!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

another finish....

[JIBBBY]

That ball shot to start the fight helped him out. Dog ITD at +275 hits there ..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Picking Casey Decision and Woodson Decision

[JIBBBY]

Picking Casey Decision and Woodson Decision

Casey by decision seems like the call. I agree.

[JIBBBY]

Casey may finish late

She really busting up Jojua standing in round 1.

[JIBBBY]

Whew that works!!

Chick fights do usually go the distance in the UFC. Decision bets never a bad idea.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Woodson's legs look like they can snap at any second

[Hugo de Naranja]

Baeza UD
Calvillo R2 Submission
Moises UD
Arce UD
Rothwell R1 Submission
Spencer UD
Holloway UD

Calvillo Submission (+600) 0.12u
Arce (+122) 0.41u
Arce Decision (+290) 0.16u
Rothwell KO/TKO (+375) 0.1u
Rothwell Submission (+420) 0.15u
Y. Rodriguez Decision (+1600) 0.1u

[JIBBBY]

Woodson's legs look like they can snap at any second

Skeletor is hard to deal with even with those stick legs.

[JIBBBY]

Joel Alvarez another dog lands ITD at +430 .. That works for me.

[frankieunits2685]

Huge win for Alvarez.

[JIBBBY]

Let's keep these dogs winning ITD. Khaos Williams got next hopefully..

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

asian fade may no longer apply.....

[Kermit]

Great. Just got home from work and the card is almost over.

[JIBBBY]

That's one badass China man. Asian fade does not apply with this dude.