[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Paramount 9:00 pm ET
Roy Nelson vs Matt Mitrione (heaveyweight grand prix)
Derek Campos vs Patricky Freire
Liam McGeary vs Vadim Nemkov
Heather Hardy vs Ana Julaton
Tywan Claxton vs Jose Perez

[UncleChael]

Fukk yeah!!! Big Country!!!!

[JIBBBY]

MMAMANIA -


265 lbs.: Matt Mitrione (12-5) vs. Roy Nelson (23-14)

Roy Nelson jumped ship from UFC and signed with Bellator MMA last May. I immediately predicted that the promotion would try to pair him with Matt Mitrione in a rematch of the fight they had at The Ultimate Fighter 16 (TUF) Finale, a fight “Big Country” won by putting heavy hands on Mitrione’s chin, being awarded the technical knockout victory as a result. For some that came as a surprise given Mitrione is the more physically intimidating fighter, 6’3” and around 250 pounds, while Roy Nelson is a ROUND 265 pounds at just over six feet tall. That never stopped him from winning the IFL Heavyweight Title or season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter though.
Indeed — Roy Nelson’s popularity as a fighter stems from the fact that even though he may look like the “Average Joe” to some viewers he does the things that Joe Schmoe simply can’t do. 14 of Nelson’s 23 career wins come by knockout, and for “Big Country” it seems that the bigger they come the harder they fall. The list of behemoths that Nelson has laid out with his prodigious punching power include “Skyscraper” Stefan Struve, “Bigfoot” Antonio Silva and “The Darkness” Cheick Kongo. Those who ignore the right hand at the end of his 72” reach make a HUGE mistake.
Meanwhile Mitrione had a memorable but middling career in UFC before he made his own jump to Bellator, at which point he promptly ran off a three fight win streak peaking with an amazing Fedor Emelianenko fight at MSG which featured a highlight reel simultaneous knockdown. The younger and presumably less rattled Mitrione recovered first and secured the knockout win, but it was yet another reminder that “Meathead” often has a suspect chin. His promotional debut against Carl Seumanutafa was nearly a disaster when he got dropped by a right hand, but again it was his quick recovery from having the lights switched off that stopped the bout from being waved off.
It wouldn’t be inconceivable for Mitrione and Nelson to unintentionally repeat the famous double knockdown from Bellator NYC given 11 of Mitrione’s 12 wins come by KO, and his 79” reach should (in theory) touch Nelson’s chin. What Nelson has now though is exactly what he had the first time they met the first time — veteran experience. Nelson knows how to cut angles and make larger opponents overextend their reach, at which point he steps smoothly to the side and pops off his hands. He’s also not afraid to clinch for a takedown if he’s getting rocked, and as the late Kimbo Slice said once you’ve got “the moon” sitting on you it’s hard to get back to your feet.
Despite this I feel Mitrione has the one advantage you can’t measure on paper — confidence. He just knocked out one of the all-time legends of MMA, while Nelson had to settle for a decision with Javy Ayala in his promotional debut last year. Even though a lot of prognosticators will pick Nelson and say that history will repeat itself, I feel that Mitrione has learned his lesson with Nelson the hard way and won’t let “Big Country” reach out and touch him quite so easily.
Final prediction: Matt Mitrione wins a unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Patricky Freire (18-8) vs. Derek Campos (19-6)

Bellator previously tried to put this rematch together at Bellator 167 only to have Freire withdraw due to injury. They targeted Bellator 181 for the same fight but ultimately changed their minds and had Campos face Brandon Girtz a third time. That victory put Campos at four straight in the highly competitive Lightweight division, while Freire comes in with impressive back to back wins of his own facing two former champions: Josh Thomson and “Smooth” Benson Henderson.
The first time these two met at Bellator 117 it was Freire who won the day via TKO. Knockouts are a staple of the way the elder “Pitbull” fights as 11 of 18 wins (61%) have seen a man crash to the canvas. He packs a lot of muscle and power into a 5’7” frame with a 71” reach. Campos is the taller man at 5’9” but actually gives up three inches on his punch, sporting a 68” wingspan by comparison. Campos is a more balanced fighter on paper though with six knockouts and five submissions in his 19 wins, and given Freire’s propensity to stand and bang there’s an ample opportunity for Campos to score takedowns and even fish for submissions on the ground.
Final prediction: Derek Campos wins via split decision

205 lbs.: Liam McGeary (12-2) vs. Vadim Nemkov (8-2)

It’s been a rough fall from grace since Liam McGeary submitted Tito Ortiz at Bellator 142. In two of his last three fights, McGeary has been exposed as a fighter with virtually no takedown defense, seeing both “Mr. Wonderful” Phil Davis exploit that weakness to take his title and then being humbled by “The Swarm” Linton Vassell to earn a world title shot. While McGeary is a tall drink of water at 6’6” with an 81” span, none of that matters when he’s on his back, and those same jiu-jitsu skills that saw him tap Ortiz to an inverted triangle choke seem to vanish.
Thankfully for him Vadim Nemkov is not likely to play the takedown game. The Russian brawler has finished 87.5% of his wins by knockout including his promotional debut against Phillipe Lins at Bellator 182. This fight is tailor made for McGeary to get back on track given he has six knockouts to go along with his five submissions, and Nemkov gives up plenty of size at only 6’0”, although he may be fresher and less drawn out than McGeary in what is probably an exhausting weight cut for a monstrous Light Heavyweight. Still I expect this is Bellator’s way to get McGeary back into the contender’s picture and hopefully give him time to shore up his takedown defense.
Final prediction: Liam McGeary wins by TKO in the second round

125 lbs.: Heather Hardy (1-1) vs. Ana Julaton (2-3)

It’s hard to be overwhelmingly impressed with either woman’s MMA career at this point despite their extensive professional boxing experience. Hardy is a stellar 20-0 with one draw inside the squared circle but looked really bad at Bellator 185 against an unknown Kristina Williams, getting her nose destroyed in the process. Julaton boasts a 14-4-1 boxing record and multiple world titles but went 2-2 in ONE Fighting and lost a split decision to Lisa Blaine in her Bellator debut. Can either of these women find their form in mixed martial arts? Matching them with each other may be the only way to find out. I favor Hardy because of her age (25 vs. 37) and because she was at least impressive in HER Bellator debut. She’s got more time left to get better at a second sport provided she remembers how to check kicks and not get creamed right in the schnozz. I doubt Julaton has developed enough kickboxing skills over five fights to do what Williams did.
Final prediction: Heather Hardy wins a unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Tywan Claxton (1-0) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (0-1)

There’s literally only one reason this fight exists and is on the main card of a Paramount Network show and that’s Tywan Claxton’s flying knee of doom last year. Can he make that magic happen again? They’re giving him every chance in the world by pairing him with a 0-1 fighter, but it’s not as though Claxton is more experienced as a pro. I’ll pick Claxton regardless but a sensational finish is far from guaranteed.
Final prediction: Tywan Claxton wins via third round TKO

[MMANick]

Man, I think Nemkov has a real shot to win this thing. People seem to forget that he is a very accomplished Sambo practitioner. If he wants a takedown, it's almost certain to be there.

[PaperTrail07]

I amm hesitant to pull the trigger on Mcgeary .....

Man, I think Nemkov has a real shot to win this thing. People seem to forget that he is a very accomplished Sambo practitioner. If he wants a takedown, it's almost certain to be there.

[PaperTrail07]

100.00

317.20

Fighting - 24206 D. Cormier -320 for Game Fighting - 24246 I. Makhachev -215 for Game Fighting - 24310 M. Chandler -285 for Game Fighting - 7100004 Matt Mitrione -165 for Game

Take it home MEATY

[MMANick]

I amm hesitant to pull the trigger on Mcgeary .....

Dude can't stop a TD.

[JIBBBY]

I'm giving the dogs a chance in this Bellator event for a change.. Taking the doggies in this one fellas.. Hope it doesn't back fire..

Fat Boy Roy already beat Meat Head.. Meat Head doesn't have much head movement and that big head of his should be an easy target for Roy to hit again..

Derek Campos should be very game against an aging Pit Bull Patricky...

Leary fight is toss up for me... Russian could get it.. Not sure????

Heather Hardy by decision looks good to me.. Small chicks typically do go the distance more often then not..

Claxton the huge favorite should win, odds are to jacked up, no play on that fight..

[PaperTrail07]

Say it aint so lol>...

i'm giving the dogs a chance in this bellator event for a change.. Taking the doggies in this one fellas.. Hope it doesn't back fire..

Fat boy roy already beat meat head.. Meat head doesn't have much head movement and that big head of his should be an easy target for roy to hit again..

[PaperTrail07]

Right....Phil davis made him look like a fool....but then again he did that to a lot of people.....over 1.5 might be the play..

Dude can't stop a TD.

[JIBBBY]

Say it aint so lol>...

Gotta do it Paper this go around.. Gottta say soooo ..

[PaperTrail07]

lol....well GL.....I honestly think Freire and Mitrione will easy.... The rest I agree....things could happen.....IF mcgreay wins...guessing round 1 TKO.....

[MMANick]

Right....Phil davis made him look like a fool....but then again he did that to a lot of people.....over 1.5 might be the play..

Tito, Vassell, Newton, Anundson. These guys all managed takedowns.

[MMANick]

lol....well GL.....I honestly think Freire and Mitrione will easy.... The rest I agree....things could happen.....IF mcgreay wins...guessing round 1 TKO.....

I agree w/ Mitrione & Patricky.

[TPowell]

Think I'm rolling with Julaton ML. Some sharps on Twitter on her and the price has dropped today. I also think whoever wrote that preview above needs to do more research. Hardy is 36 years old as well and Julaton at least somewhat of a kickboxing background as she's a black belt in some weird discipline that has kenpo karate parts.

[Fence]

Agree with TPowell on this one - have watched some of her (ana's) mma fights and she is way more well rounded. Doing research it seems that Hardy is still trying to pick up the basics - it took her getting her nose shattered by a novice mma fighter to find out that you can't just box in mma and win.

Although I will hand it to Hardy - she really is tough. Julaton can kick (TKD black belt I believe) and has decent takedowns for someone who has only fought in mma for 3-4 years. Training with Reyes and Mir - hopefully picking up more knowledge and technique.

This should be a pick'em fight.

I'd take Julaton ML no question for the value alone.

[Fence]

Well - should be "closer" to a pick'em due to Hardy's popularity and marketability which has blown up the line - same thing with PVZ. Hardy can box though - it'll be an interesting match up.

[TPowell]

Yep I'm on it for a unit myself.

[TPowell]

In Hardy's debut she fought somebody who was willing to push forward and fight in a phone booth which really helped her. Her opponent also threw ZERO kicks essentially. She did beat her up in the clinch though. When she fought a decent kickboxer, she was pieced up. I'm a little scared of what may happen if Hardy can push forward in this fight without pressure and kicks keeping her at bay though.

[Richard Clock]

In Hardy's debut she fought somebody who was willing to push forward and fight in a phone booth which really helped her. Her opponent also threw ZERO kicks essentially. She did beat her up in the clinch though. When she fought a decent kickboxer, she was pieced up. I'm a little scared of what may happen if Hardy can push forward in this fight without pressure and kicks keeping her at bay though.

Hardy has the "Van Zant" effect, which is to say being propped up by an organization because she is marketable. Maybe a little harsh and unfair to Hardy, but I believe it has some truth, and relevancy from a handicapping aspect. Her sole win was against a 4-6 fighter and is a more than 2 to 1 favorite? Please put me down for 1 degen unit

[TPowell]

Hardy has the "Van Zant" effect, which is to say being propped up by an organization because she is marketable. Maybe a little harsh and unfair to Hardy, but I believe it has some truth, and relevancy from a handicapping aspect. Her sole win was against a 4-6 fighter and is a more than 2 to 1 favorite? Please put me down for 1 degen unit

Yep. You can make that case about Julaton as well but its clear to see that her MMA game is MUCH more diverse even if she isn't the level of boxer that Hardy is

[Fence]

Agree, if this was boxing, I’d understand the line. But being MMA and 4 months since Hardy got exposed, I’m not convinced she has picked up the necessary skills to warrant being a 2 to 1 favorite (more than).

I don’t even think she has been training MMA full time during this period either. Let’s not forget that 2 of Ana’s 3 losses were by split decision and really close – and seemingly to fighters with a more well-rounded base.

Hardy may very well win this (I believe she’ll have the strength advantage) but probably should not be favored by that much.

If Julaton game-planned appropriately and practiced grappling, takedowns, top-control and submissions she should very well take this with her having 4 times the experience in MMA. But if she makes this a boxing match, it could be anyone’s match to win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nemkov (+200) 2u
Julaton (+310) 1u

[TPowell]

Surely Nelson can win a round right? He only needs 1 on a couple scorecards to cover this

Nelson +5.5 (-105)

[Fence]

If he drops the one-trick pony - head hunting with the over hand right strategy - absolutely. I heard his last fight was a good indication he is going back to being an MMArtist. Hard to tell, though.

[JIBBBY]

Gonna be DVR'd on this event.. Check in later... GL fellas!!!

[Unwritten Law]

Went with Nemkov, Fedor's protege and RIZIN fighter. Hoping for a KO on McGeary.

[TPowell]

Damn Nemkov is the real deal.

[Fence]

Good call to the Nemkov backers. McGeary is too worried about that TD - hampering his SU.

[TPowell]

That was hard to watch......

[Unwritten Law]

Nemkov is a beast, hope he comes back to fight in RIZIN again.

[Richard Clock]

I told myself I wasn't going to drink tonight

[Fence]

Well - didn't expect Ana to come out that flat. Good play to Hardy.

[Unwritten Law]

This one is unbearable to watch.

[Fence]

You'd figure 3 to 4 years would be enough training to put away a complete novice.