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Prelim write ups MMA Mania -
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145 lbs.: Herbert Burns vs. Daniel Pineda
Herbert Burns (11-2) — two fights removed from consecutive losses in ONE FC — dazzled on “Contender Series” with an impressive triangle finish of Darrick Minner, earning himself a contract in the process. He’s been equally impressive in the UFC, dispatching Nate Landwehr and Evan Dunham in 4:03 combined.
“The Blaze” will have two inches of height and four inches of reach on Daniel Pineda (26-13).
“The Pit” left UFC in 2014 in the midst of a 1-4 stretch, then went on to win eight of his next 10 bouts. His efforts earned him a spot in PFL’s 2019 season, which saw him knockout tournament favorite Movlid Khaybulaev and choke out UFC vet Jeremy Kennedy before a failed drug test erased his efforts.
All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, 18 of them by submission.
I sorely underestimated Burns against Dunham, assuming that the Brazilian’s historically average wrestling would prove insufficient against a grappler of that caliber. Instead, he took the back and wrapped up the submission without issue, and I expect him to do the same to Pineda. Though “The Pit” is always dangerous, he’s not the caliber of wrestler that’s troubled Burns in the past and isn’t quite lethal enough on the feet to make up for that.
Pineda’s best chances lie in either catching Burns on the feet or hurting him in transition as the Brazilian hunts for a takedown, and neither seems particularly likely against Brazilian jiu-jitsu of this caliber. In short, Burns ensures Pineda’s UFC career picks up where it left off with another one-sided defeat.
Prediction: Burns via first-round submission
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145 lbs.: T.J. Brown vs. Danny Chavez
T.J. Brown (14-7) capped off a four-fight win streak by choking out Dylan Lockard on “Contender Series” to earn himself an Octagon contract. He looked to be in firm control in his promotional debut opposite Jordan Griffin, only to land in a fight-ending guillotine late in the second.
He has ended 13 of his 14 professional wins inside the distance, including every one since 2016.
Danny Chavez (10-3) — who first debuted in 2010 — spent two years on the shelf after consecutive losses to Jason Soares and Adi Alic. He returned in 2018 to score three consecutive first-round knockouts, the most recent of which came just last month.
He stands one inch shorter than Brown at 5’8.”
I’m going to be honest: I couldn’t find a single recent Chavez fight that wasn’t locked behind a paywall. The most useful available footage is a 48-second clip of him kicking his most recent opponent in the head; therefore, I’m essentially flying blind here.
That said, there’s enough on paper for me to confidently pick Brown. Though “Downtown” is a bit fragile, he’s far more proven and is versatile enough to hold his own wherever the fight ends up. He takes down “The Colombian Warrior” early and puts him away on the mat.
Prediction: Brown via first-round submission
155 lbs.: Jim Miller vs. Vinc Pichel
Jim Miller (32-14) — not long ago fighting for his UFC life in the midst of a 1-5 skid — enters the cage this Saturday having won three of his last four. All three victories came by first-round submission, two of which earned Miller “Performance of the Night” bonuses.
“A-10” has tapped 18 professional opponents overall and knocked out another four.
Vinc Pichel (12-2) returned from three years away to knockout Damien Brown in 2017, then followed that up with a narrow victory over then-unbeaten Joaquim Silva. Gregor Gillespie soon ended Pichel’s win streak at four, though he got on track a year later with a decision over another unbeaten in Roosevelt Roberts.
“From Hell” will have one inch of height and two inches of reach on Miller.
As far as odds go, this is tied with the main event for closest fight on the card, and I’m inclined to agree with the bookies. Both men have clear avenues of victory: Miller is the far smoother striker and the more dangerous submission artist, while Pichel has a notable size advantage and considerably less wear.
Fond as I am of Miller, I’m leaning toward The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran. Miller needs a slip or a knockdown to put Pichel on his back, while Pichel can ostensibly take him down whenever things get hairy on the feet. Expect something like Miller’s recent fight with Scott Holtzman, where he starts strong but ultimately fades under his opponent’s superior physicality.
Prediction: Pichel via unanimous decision
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115 lbs.: Felice Herrig vs. Virna Jandiroba
Despite falling to Randa Markos in the second round of TUF 20, Felice Herrig (14-8) established herself as a Strawweight contender with wins in five of her first six Octagon appearances, including a notable upset of Alexa Grasso. “Lil’ Bulldog” enters the cage this weekend on the heels of two consecutive losses, having dropped a split decision to Karolina Kowalkiewicz and a unanimous one to Michelle Waterson.
A torn ACL (details) makes this her first fight in nearly two years.
Virna Jandiroba (15-1) defeated Mizuki Inoue to claim the Invicta Strawweight title in 2018, then followed that up with a submission win over Janaisa Morandin in her first defense. Though she felt to Carla Esparza in her Octagon debut, she rebounded eight months later by tapping “Contender Series” veteran Mallory Martin in Washington D.C.
Twelve of her professional wins have come by submission.
“Carcara” may be the more one-dimensional of the two, but that one dimension is so good that the distinction ceases to matter. Herrig’s Octagon success has come in large part because of her unexpectedly stout wrestling, an area in which Jandiroba has her sorely out-classed, and Herrig’s striking is nowhere near enough to make up the difference.
Even at the best of times, Herrig would struggle mightily with Jandiroba’s lethal ground game. With two years of rust behind her, it goes from difficult to downright unreasonable. Jandiroba overpowers her on the mat for either a wide decision or late submission.
Prediction: Jandiroba via second-round submission
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265 lbs.: Christopher Daukaus vs. Parker Porter
Christopher Daukaus (8-3) — brother of “Contender Series” alumnus Kyle Daukaus — won four straight before suffering a comeback knockout loss to UFC veteran Zu Anyanwu in a bid for the Cage Fury Heavyweight title. He returned to action five months later, knocking out Danny Holmes with a head kick just 90 seconds into their bout.
Eight of his professional wins, including his last five, have come by form of knockout.
Parker Porter (10-5) made his first walk to the cage in 2007, facing the likes of Jon Jones and Gabriel Gonzaga in his first 10 fights. After a nearly 2.5-year hiatus, he got back to work with wins in three of his next four, the only loss coming by disqualification.
He gives up two inches of height to Daukaus.
Interestingly, both men present stylistic issues that the other has recently struggled with. Daukaus fell to a heavy-handed slugger in Anyanwu after a strong start, while Porter was losing ground against the boxing attack of Dirlei Broenstrup before turning things around with a left hook. Though deceptively savvy with his head movement and counters, Porter will likely spend most of the fight playing catch-up as Daukaus puts his hands to work, especially since the threat of Daukaus’ knees neuters the clinch work that is Porter’s best weapon.
The question, then, is whether Daukaus can avoid the game-changing counter long enough to land the telling blows. Between his crisper punches and height advantage, I say yes. He clips Porter late in the first or early in the second.
Prediction: Daukaus via second-round technical knockout
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115 lbs.: Livinha Souza vs. Ashley Yoder
Livinha Souza (13-2) — the former Invicta Strawweight champion — kicked off her Octagon career with a dominant 81-second submission of Alex Chambers, then followed that up with a narrow decision over Sarah Frota. The wins set up a clash with Phoenix Series winner Brianna Van Buren, who out-hustled Souza en route to a unanimous decision victory.
Eight of her professional wins have come by submission.
Ashley Yoder (7-5) pulled herself out of a three-fight slump with consecutive decisions over Amanda Cooper and Syuri Kondo, upping her professional record to 3-3 since her unsuccessful TUF bid. Late replacement Randa Markos proved too much to handle, however, and handed Yoder a split decision loss in Oct. 2019.
“The Spider Monkey” is the taller woman by four inches and will have a 3.5-inch reach advantage.
If Souza fights to the best of her abilities, she’s a nightmare to deal with, combining surprisingly powerful strikes with top-notch judo and lethal submissions. As we saw against Frota and Van Buren, though, she can be frustratingly inactive and reticent to use her best weapons. Luckily for her, she has Yoder sufficiently out-classed that I can pick her with confidence.
Though the taller of the two, Yoder lacks the physicality that Souza’s last two opponents used to great effect against her, leaving her unable to compensate for the technical disparity in the striking and grappling. She’s unlikely to outwrestle Souza or pose a notable finishing threat anywhere the fight goes; so long as Souza puts forth even a modicum of effort, superior stand up and long stretches of top control carry her to victory.
Prediction: Souza via unanimous decisionComment -
I'm not a huge MMA bettor or anything but wasn't Cormier a fairly big fav over Miocic in the second fight? Dominated it through 3 rounds and got too cocky in rd 4. I have to fire a max wager on Cormier at near even odds. I truly cannot believe the line is so low.Comment -
I agree with pretty much all that - cream is subjective anyway. For the record I am not betting Dodson this fight.
Depending on odds I hope to bet fight goes the distance if I can get -250 or better. I also might lay Merab to win if he drops below -200 and bet him to win by decision at -110 ish hopefully creating an arb(in my mind at least) on a Merab win.Comment -
How big of a factor is smaller 25 ft cage compared to 30 ft cage? I think it favors DC slightly in that aspect alone.Comment -
DC may have the wrestling advantage in a smaller cage but that doesn't mean he has the cardio advantage if he goes into wrestling mode.. Stipe will spring right back up.. That will tax old man DC if he decides to go that route..
If DC just comes forward and start swing in the first round I think that will be his best chance to win.. Stipe has the better stand up and boxing though if the fight continues.. At this point maybe the better chin also..
Just my take.Comment -
@Ichiro and WolfTickets
Cheers to both of you for having a reasoned, well thought out discussion with no name calling. This forum could use more of that.Comment -
Nobody really talks about the ongoing eye pokes Stipe received from Cormier, in BOTH previous fights.Comment -
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You as well Hugo buddy.
Nothing is ever guaranteed in this sport at this level but I just gotta go with the younger dude.. Revenge is a bitch though.. DC did clip Stipe on the chin before a while back but I always thought that was a lucky punch in the clinch.. Stipe learned from this as we witnessed that in the second rematch fight...
Stipe again on this next go around is my call..Comment -
Odds haven't changed a bit on dimes since I placed a few days ago.. Let's get this Frankie!!
Current odds still the same today..
UFC 252 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - UFC Apex - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV any venue has action Sat 8/15 1001 Stipe Miocic -105 o2½ -145 11:59PM 1002 Daniel Cormier -115 u2½ +125 Comment -
@Jibby
I was at their first fight. Amazing crowd for that one.Comment -
Any drunk fans getting frisky around you?
I find drunk fans get very loud and frisky around me at the end of these MMA or Boxing events when attending in the past even with good seats.. I almost got in a few fights.. I always made the peace though even though I was drunk probably as well at the time
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I'm retired for attending live UFC or BOXING events especially when they are serving alcohol at those venues these days.. Would rather stay at home and watch and live bet now..
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There were some Stipe fans who might have been from Croatia. They had the flags and everything. They were PISSED when Cormier knocked him out.Any drunk fans getting frisky around you?
I find drunk fans get very loud and frisky around me at the end of these MMA or Boxing events when attending in the past even with good seats.. I almost got in a few fights.. I always made the peace though even though I was drunk probably as well at the time..
I'm retired for attending live UFC or BOXING events especially when they are serving alcohol at those venues these days.. Would rather stay at home and watch and live bet now..Comment -
Unless he's lost a step I think Dodson has too much speed and power and I don't think Merab has the defense to avoid being caught by a big shot. If Merab scores takedowns he doesn't seem to be able to hold the other guy down and they just go back up to the feet, I don't think he can beat Dodson that way without taking a big shot.Comment -
yeah its harder to see in the cage than most people think.....you need amazing seats for events to be good, even then I like to see shit on TV lol....Any drunk fans getting frisky around you?
I find drunk fans get very loud and frisky around me at the end of these MMA or Boxing events when attending in the past even with good seats.. I almost got in a few fights.. I always made the peace though even though I was drunk probably as well at the time..
I'm retired for attending live UFC or BOXING events especially when they are serving alcohol at those venues these days.. Would rather stay at home and watch and live bet now..Comment -
I was up top at the Garden for 244, view wasn't too bad, but then again I dont think there's a bad seat at MSG, it's tiny. I had bought floor seats for Ferguson/Khabib @ Barclays a couple months ago, then everything went to shit with Covid. Fortunately, I got a full refund, I can't wait for the next live event with a crowd.Comment -
I like dogs on the main card except JDSComment -
Fair points. As a 35 year old natural Flyweight I think Dodson has been slowing down for years. But that said, he is still significantly faster than most Bantamweights. I think Merab's striking and wrestling output will win him the decision but I see where you are coming from.Comment -
Stipe down to -104 on my book.Comment -
Press conference should be starting any minute.Comment -
Fukk
Cormier gonna wrestle Stipe this time. Rip Stipe backers
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If Cormier weighs in under 245 I'll throw 2 units on himComment
Probably will make or break the event for me.
