UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 (August 15, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier (for heavyweight title)
Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera
Junior Dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
John Dodson vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba

ESPN 8:00 pm ET
Jim Miller vs. Vinc Pichel
Livinha Souza vs. Ashley Yoder
Herbert Burns vs. Daniel Pineda
Felice Herrig vs. Virna Jandiroba

UFC Fight Pass 7:00 pm ET
TJ Brown vs. Danny Chavez
Chris Daukaus vs Parker Porter



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[WolfTicketDealer]

Going to be pretty big on Merab. Also have exposure on O'Malley and Ankalaev.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Going to be pretty big on Merab. Also have exposure on O'Malley and Ankalaev.

Liking where your head is at. Time for a Merab avy?

[Sanity Check]

Pineda's 1st fight coming off his PED suspension.

Will he be rocking the low testosterone, post steroid, dad bod.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Pineda's 1st fight coming off his PED suspension.

Will he be rocking the low testosterone, post steroid, dad bod.

Worth monitoring for sure. He looked ripped fighting for PFL.

[frankieunits2685]

I’m so excited for this card

[WolfTicketDealer]

Liking where your head is at. Time for a Merab avy?

You know it!

[magpie878]

I think Cormier learned from his idiocy last match, abandoning what was working, etc etc. Was winning early, then poof.

He's stuck to training and seems(?) much more focused and doesn't want to potentially go out looking like a bozo.

I lost big money on Cormier last bout (didn't even think to live hedge), and I'll be on Cormier again, just not as much.

[JIBBBY]

I think you gotta go with Stipe again. DC is a hundred years old now and should have stayed retired.. All in on Stipe as he gonna whooop that ass again.. BLM!! .

[PaperTrail07]

Only one going to be exposed again is Cutebala lol...

Going to be pretty big on Merab. Also have exposure on O'Malley and Ankalaev.

[UncleChael]

I think you gotta go with Stipe again. DC is a hundred years old now and should have stayed retired.. All in on Stipe as he gonna whooop that ass again.. BLM!! .

That little guy? I got the big white dude again

[magpie878]

DraftKings odds boosts:

Cormier to win by KO/TKO/DQ +335 (note, no submission in that prop)

Miocic/O'Malley/Rozenstruik all to win +350

[magpie878]

That little guy? I got the big white dude again

You guys might be right.

Or not. The little guy isn't little. Obviously, the record is 1-1 each, but the little guy has been better than the big guy over 50% of the time they've fought.

[Demonata]

I'm going with Cormier I decided.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Rooting for Cormier big time, this would be a nice feather in his cap to end his career. Hard fight to predict could go either way but leaning Cormier.

[frankieunits2685]

I dont think Omalley should be that big of a favorite, Chito is no joke. I really want to see Omalley get pressured a little and go to the ground. might sprinkle a little on Vera. We will see.

[WolfTicketDealer]

I dont think Omalley should be that big of a favorite, Chito is no joke. I really want to see Omalley get pressured a little and go to the ground. might sprinkle a little on Vera. We will see.

Chito's not much of an offensive wrestler. Have a lot of respect for his toughness but I think O'Malley is a bad stylistic matchup for Chito. Will be interesting to see how O'Malley's cardio holds up in the later rounds but if it's mostly a striking match (which I expect this one to be), he should be good for 3 rounds.

There will come a time to fade O'Malley but I don't think this is the spot for it.

[frankieunits2685]

Chito's not much of an offensive wrestler. Have a lot of respect for his toughness but I think O'Malley is a bad stylistic matchup for Chito. Will be interesting to see how O'Malley's cardio holds up in the later rounds but if it's mostly a striking match (which I expect this one to be), he should be good for 3 rounds.

There will come a time to fade O'Malley but I don't think this is the spot for it.

You definitely made some great points. I agree with Vera about how he is not an offensive wrestler, and lately chito has had a lot of confidence in his striking game, which stylistically against Omalley, will probably not play out well for chito. I would like to see Vera get on the inside and possibly get it to the ground. Either way, I'm stoked for this card.

[WolfTicketDealer]

You definitely made some great points. I agree with Vera about how he is not an offensive wrestler, and lately chito has had a lot of confidence in his striking game, which stylistically against Omalley, will probably not play out well for chito. I would like to see Vera get on the inside and possibly get it to the ground. Either way, I'm stoked for this card.

Think if you like Chito it's a fight to live bet. I don't expect O'Malley to slow down but will buy out of my exposure if it looks like he's slowing.

Solid main card that I'm looking forward to. Prelims are kinda meh but hopefully there are some good opps (Glad I got Merab at -175, I expect that line to keep getting wider).

[frankieunits2685]

Think if you like Chito it's a fight to live bet. I don't expect O'Malley to slow down but will buy out of my exposure if it looks like he's slowing.

Solid main card that I'm looking forward to. Prelims are kinda meh but hopefully there are some good opps (Glad I got Merab at -175, I expect that line to keep getting wider).

Merab up to -200 on my book, I saw you were big on him this week!

[PaperTrail07]

I have a ton of respect for Chito and everyone knows it LOL..hes just a gamer that finds a way to win.....

...I'm hoping he surprises everyone and gets TD into the RNC...Sugga is out of his element on the ground...

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I have a ton of respect for Chito and everyone knows it LOL..hes just a gamer that finds a way to win.....

...I'm hoping he surprises everyone and gets TD into the RNC...Sugga is out of his element on the ground...

OMalley gonna polish him off like a bag of Chitos

[PaperTrail07]

He's never been finished in his career BOLD, but I like it

OMalley gonna polish him off like a bag of Chitos

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cutelaba out with COVID-19. Sounds like their fight will be rescheduled for 8/29.

[JC2008]

Cutelaba out with COVID-19. Sounds like their fight will be rescheduled for 8/29.

Shiiiiit

[hankcream]

Cutelaba out with COVID-19. Sounds like their fight will be rescheduled for 8/29.

Damn I was hoping to hit a big dog parlay with Cutelaba & Dodson. May have to go Vera & Dodson

[Hugo de Naranja]

Damn I was hoping to hit a big dog parlay with Cutelaba & Dodson. May have to go Vera & Dodson

Why Dodson?

[ichiro4thehall]

Dodson has 2 paths to victory, Merab has 1.

I thought Merab could be an elite fighter when he arrived in UFC but he has been impressing less and less each fight. Of his last 4 wins only Kenney is a good-level UFC fighter. You could make an argument Dodson his toughest opponent yet. Merab would not make Dodson's top 10 list of toughest opponents. His last performance would worry me the most if I'm backing him, Gustavo Lopez ain't no UFC fighter, and was one of a bunch of guys to be given a chance due to Covid and Dana trying to put on a lot of cards in succession. Lopez should have been an easy ITD finish for any high-level UFC fighter.

If you're betting Merab the value is surely by decision. Dodson never been finished and he has fought the best of the best of the best.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Dodson has 2 paths to victory, Merab has 1.

I thought Merab could be an elite fighter when he arrived in UFC but he has been impressing less and less each fight. Of his last 4 wins only Kenney is a good-level UFC fighter. You could make an argument Dodson his toughest opponent yet. Merab would not make Dodson's top 10 list of toughest opponents. His last performance would worry me the most if I'm backing him, Gustavo Lopez ain't no UFC fighter, and was one of a bunch of guys to be given a chance due to Covid and Dana trying to put on a lot of cards in succession. Lopez should have been an easy ITD finish for any high-level UFC fighter.

If you're betting Merab the value is surely by decision. Dodson never been finished and he has fought the best of the best of the best.

I'm not sure how anyone can call Merab's run in the UFC unimpressive. The Saenz fight was a robbery IMO (and majority of media members scored it for Merab). The Simon fight was kinda unlucky, Merab would have won the decision if it went to the cards. Props to Simon for getting a last second choke (literally) but I'd take Merab confidently in a rematch. Every other fight has been either a 30-27 or 30-26 performance. Merab is an excellent wrestler (and round winner) with great cardio and a (to this point, anyway) good chin. Those are not the types of fighters I want to fade. Typically that's a recipe for a top 5 fighter, if not champ. I think it's a little early to call Merab a future champion, but the skill set is there. I wouldn't mind seeing the top 10 list of fighters you think Dodson's fought that are better than Merab. Personally I'd only put DJ, Dillashaw (who was very green at the time), Formiga, Yan, Moraes and Rivera. Even then, I think he would give Yan and Moraes a tough fight (Rivera would be a tougher style matchup for Merab).

And I wouldn't really put a whole ton of stock in him not finishing Lopez. Kamaru Usman didn't finish Emil Meek, Khabib didn't finish Pat Healy, and Colby Covington didn't finish Mike Pyle. All three are still elite fighters.

It's also worth noting that Merab is pretty easily the best wrestler/grappler that Dodson has faced since DJ, and we've seen Dodson get taken down in recent fights by Nathaniel Wood, Petr Yan, Pedro Munhoz and Marlon Moraes, none of whom are really known for their offensive wrestling abilities. The fact that this is in a smaller cage also benefits Merab in my opinion. Dodson's only path here is a KO, but the speed isn't what it used to be and if he's unable to catch Merab I think it'll be a wide decision for Dvalisvili.

[Unkclan]

I think there is some value on vera. He'll be omalleys toughtest test by far

[WolfTicketDealer]

Cutelaba out with COVID-19. Sounds like their fight will be rescheduled for 8/29.

Irritating. Had Ankalaev at -255 and my book canceled all wagers/parlays with it.

[Sanity Check]

If you're betting Merab the value is surely by decision. Dodson never been finished and he has fought the best of the best of the best.

Remember back when Dodson was a hot up and coming prospect?

Agree with value on Dodson.

All depends on how motivated he is.

[ichiro4thehall]

I'm not sure how anyone can call Merab's run in the UFC unimpressive. The Saenz fight was a robbery IMO (and majority of media members scored it for Merab). The Simon fight was kinda unlucky, Merab would have won the decision if it went to the cards. Props to Simon for getting a last second choke (literally) but I'd take Merab confidently in a rematch. Every other fight has been either a 30-27 or 30-26 performance. Merab is an excellent wrestler (and round winner) with great cardio and a (to this point, anyway) good chin. Those are not the types of fighters I want to fade. Typically that's a recipe for a top 5 fighter, if not champ. I think it's a little early to call Merab a future champion, but the skill set is there. I wouldn't mind seeing the top 10 list of fighters you think Dodson's fought that are better than Merab. Personally I'd only put DJ, Dillashaw (who was very green at the time), Formiga, Yan, Moraes and Rivera. Even then, I think he would give Yan and Moraes a tough fight (Rivera would be a tougher style matchup for Merab).

And I wouldn't really put a whole ton of stock in him not finishing Lopez. Kamaru Usman didn't finish Emil Meek, Khabib didn't finish Pat Healy, and Colby Covington didn't finish Mike Pyle. All three are still elite fighters.

It's also worth noting that Merab is pretty easily the best wrestler/grappler that Dodson has faced since DJ, and we've seen Dodson get taken down in recent fights by Nathaniel Wood, Petr Yan, Pedro Munhoz and Marlon Moraes, none of whom are really known for their offensive wrestling abilities. The fact that this is in a smaller cage also benefits Merab in my opinion. Dodson's only path here is a KO, but the speed isn't what it used to be and if he's unable to catch Merab I think it'll be a wide decision for Dvalisvili.

Good counter argument.

I did not say Merab's UFC record was unimpressive. I said I've been less impressed by him as each fight passes.

The top 10 thing was off the top of my head. It's impossible to argue objectively as a lot depends on how a fighter is viewed currently, particularly if they are at the end of their careers. For instance, is Wineland a tougher opponent than Merab? Now right away everyone says No way you clueless idiot! But flip it and ask, right now if we asked 100 UFC experts to do a mock hall of fame ballot on Wineland and Merab, without question Wineland gets more votes. Again, I'm not saying Wineland a tougher opponent.

I do think Lineker def should be on your list as a tougher opponent of Dodson's. I'd also say right now Munhoz would have to be as well, though I accept Merab would be fav if he fought Munhoz. My point I was getting at is Dodson has fought an incomparable level of fighter to Merab and Merab is 11-4.

Finally, my post was in reply to Hugo asking why bet Dodson. I do believe he has 2 paths to victory to Merab's 1 of win by decision. You can easily argue Merab is a great round winner and Dodson has no chance of the decision. I accept Dodson's chances of winning on the cards is a lot smaller than Merab's but it is def not close to zero whereas in reply to someone maybe arguing Merab also has a small chance of winning by ground and pound I'd say to them anyone who has fought DJ at the absolute peak of his game for 50 minutes and not been KO'd or subbed, who fought Lineker when he was a killer, fought Moraes when he was still a killer, fought Yan when he was and is still a killer and has never been stopped. I'll take that guy not to be stopped from a guy who couldn't stop Gustavo Lopez.

Anyway, I like reading your posts man. If Merab ever becomes a UFC champ I will give you all my points however many I have at that point. I actually really like him, just feel he's one of those guys who at best is top 5 for a short while and maybe gets a title shot - especially with his Serra connection - but he'll end up being a solid top 10 guy for the remainder of his UFC time. Kinda Paul Felder type level - who I am a big fan of also.

[PaperTrail07]

The sugga fight is a wild one IMO-if chito getd it to the ground Sugga is literally a fish out of water.....even if he cracks chito-and he goes down I think he will want it back up....does chito try to prove a point and box or does he go for the W.....either way I think thre is value in chito too and omalley by decision....I just really don't think chito get finished

[WolfTicketDealer]

Good counter argument.

I did not say Merab's UFC record was unimpressive. I said I've been less impressed by him as each fight passes.

The top 10 thing was off the top of my head. It's impossible to argue objectively as a lot depends on how a fighter is viewed currently, particularly if they are at the end of their careers. For instance, is Wineland a tougher opponent than Merab? Now right away everyone says No way you clueless idiot! But flip it and ask, right now if we asked 100 UFC experts to do a mock hall of fame ballot on Wineland and Merab, without question Wineland gets more votes. Again, I'm not saying Wineland a tougher opponent.

I do think Lineker def should be on your list as a tougher opponent of Dodson's. I'd also say right now Munhoz would have to be as well, though I accept Merab would be fav if he fought Munhoz. My point I was getting at is Dodson has fought an incomparable level of fighter to Merab and Merab is 11-4.

Finally, my post was in reply to Hugo asking why bet Dodson. I do believe he has 2 paths to victory to Merab's 1 of win by decision. You can easily argue Merab is a great round winner and Dodson has no chance of the decision. I accept Dodson's chances of winning on the cards is a lot smaller than Merab's but it is def not close to zero whereas in reply to someone maybe arguing Merab also has a small chance of winning by ground and pound I'd say to them anyone who has fought DJ at the absolute peak of his game for 50 minutes and not been KO'd or subbed, who fought Lineker when he was a killer, fought Moraes when he was still a killer, fought Yan when he was and is still a killer and has never been stopped. I'll take that guy not to be stopped from a guy who couldn't stop Gustavo Lopez.

Anyway, I like reading your posts man. If Merab ever becomes a UFC champ I will give you all my points however many I have at that point. I actually really like him, just feel he's one of those guys who at best is top 5 for a short while and maybe gets a title shot - especially with his Serra connection - but he'll end up being a solid top 10 guy for the remainder of his UFC time. Kinda Paul Felder type level - who I am a big fan of also.

Good and fair points. I definitely agree Dodson has fought much better competition and is better than most of the opponents Merab has faced to this point (Kenney IMO has top 15 potential). I also agree that Merab isn't likely to finish Dodson. Love Lineker as a fan but he does have clear weakness to wrestlers (or strikers who are more technical and can take his shots).

I do think Dodson will struggle to win rounds considering it'll be tougher for him to fight on the outside and keep Merab from taking him down. Especially given the smaller cage. If this were Dodson from 4-5 years ago when he had better TDD I'd be much more considering of a play on him here.

I do have respect for Dodson and what he's accomplished. For the most part he's only lost to the cream of the crop and has some great wins. Much respect if he gets the W here but I get the feeling that Merab will also be considered a "cream of the crop" fighter within the next year or two.