UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee (April 21, 2018)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-15-18, 12:22 AM

Thanks for creating the thread Locky!

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 04-15-18, 01:09 AM

**Shagdogy** · 04-15-18, 02:20 PM

My last max bet was my avatar, Justin Williams. Does he come through for me here again?

**firekillex** · 04-15-18, 03:23 PM

Kevin Lee or Barboza hmmmmm
leaning KLEE

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-15-18, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

My last max bet was my avatar, Justin Williams. Does he come through for me here again?

*Justin Willis

**frankieunits2685** · 04-15-18, 04:40 PM

Frankie Edgar the hometown boy!

**Sanity Check** · 04-15-18, 04:41 PM

New rule: bet on the guy with "Magomed" in his name.

Justin Willis needs one of those.. "I'm what Willis was talking about" shirts.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-15-18, 10:43 PM

I think Edgar ITD (+515) is worth a look. Swanson has been Submitted in all four of his UFC losses and Edgar is an underrated finisher on the mat. I could see him getting a GnP stoppage or another submission win here.

**Shagdogy** · 04-16-18, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think Edgar ITD (+515) is worth a look. Swanson has been Submitted in all four of his UFC losses and Edgar is an underrated finisher on the mat. I could see him getting a GnP stoppage or another submission win here.

The super fast turnaround off the KO stoppage, plus his father dying within the month makes me very skeptical of where Frankie’s head is at. I respect the guy but I think this is all too much too soon. I’ll root for him but not gonna bet this one at all.

**MMANick** · 04-16-18, 02:44 PM

I really like Barboza and Kevin Lee, but I think the wrong guy is favored here. Edson has great TDD, and his striking is top notch. I don't think Lee will score enough TD's to avoid the knockout blow... He's a bit chinny.

**Sanity Check** · 04-16-18, 02:50 PM

Did everybody hear Frankie Edgar's manager saying something like.. "I'm going to kill Conor McGregor. I'm going to kill that mutha phucka." On tape inside the bus when Conor & friends were throwing things at that bus window?

Fade the guy with the Don King manager could be in effect here like it was with Brian Ortega.

**Shagdogy** · 04-16-18, 02:55 PM

Justin Willis opens -215 and is now at -260. Cat’s out of the bag. Damn.

**Shagdogy** · 04-16-18, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Justin Willis opens -215 and is now at -260. Cat’s out of the bag. Damn.

-335 now... damn the secret is really out. Line still not on BookMaker so I guess I’m just a spectator for this one.

**Shagdogy** · 04-16-18, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by MMANick

I really like Barboza and Kevin Lee, but I think the wrong guy is favored here. Edson has great TDD, and his striking is top notch. I don't think Lee will score enough TD's to avoid the knockout blow... He's a bit chinny.

Hard to argue but Barboza took a pretty serious beating not that long ago and Kevin Lee does seem to be making progress each time out.

**SmellMyFinger** · 04-16-18, 06:37 PM

might be some room for live betting barbosa if lee dose not finish him early and the leg kicks start to affect his drive

**SmellMyFinger** · 04-16-18, 06:49 PM

anybody like branch at +185 vs tiago santos ? seems to me like if he can avoid getting ko'ed it should be his fight to win, maybe worth a hedge, live bet it after round 1 (if it ever lasts that long).

**Shagdogy** · 04-16-18, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by SmellMyFinger

anybody like branch at +185 vs tiago santos ? seems to me like if he can avoid getting ko'ed it should be his fight to win, maybe worth a hedge, live bet it after round 1 (if it ever lasts that long).

Love the way Santos has been looking lately but Branch is going to be a real solid test. Santos needs to put his power on display, be explosive, and avoid the grind. Branch gets inside and makes it dirty he has a solid shot.

**UncleChael** · 04-17-18, 07:59 AM

Kevin Lee gonna put a beatdown on this boy worse than Khabib.

**MMANick** · 04-17-18, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Kevin Lee gonna put a beatdown on this boy worse than Khabib.

If he beats him, it'll be by SUB. Definitely not a beating.

**Thrilla** · 04-17-18, 01:49 PM

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-17-18, 11:58 PM

Have a bunch of parlays going so far

**JIBBBY** · 04-18-18, 02:54 PM

Write ups MMA MANIA coming in now -

170 lbs.: Ryan LaFlare vs. Alex Garcia

In Feb. 2017, Ryan LaFlare (13-2) returned to action after more than a year away, defeating Roan Carneiro to improve his UFC record to 6-1. He looked poised to make it 7-1 after controlling Alex Oliveira in the first round of their July 2017 clash, but ran headlong into an uppercut for his first-ever stoppage loss.

He will have four inches of height and two inches of reach on Alex Garcia (15-4).
“The Dominican Nightmare” got off to a perfect (2-0) UFC start before alternating losses and wins, starting with a narrow decision loss to Neil Magny. He is coming off an upset submission of striking standout Muslim Salikhov and is three fights removed from a one-punch, bonus-winning knockout of Mike Pyle at UFC 207.
He has knocked out and submitted six opponents apiece.
Garcia could be something special if he worked to evolve his striking beyond “hurl haymakers at opponent until he falls down” and improved his cardio, but as of now he’s simply dangerous and entertaining, which isn’t enough at the highest levels of the shark-infested Welterweight division. LaFlare — a competent striker and takedown artist — looks to be just beyond him. LaFlare can keep up with Garcia in the grappling and control him with range striking until Garcia’s gas tank empties, at which point it’s all one-way traffic.
Garcia definitely has the power to end LaFlare with one hit, but it’s not a possibility worth putting your hopes in. LaFlare outstrikes and outwrestles him on the way to a decision victory.
Prediction: LaFlare via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Magomed Bibulatov vs. Yuta Sasaki

Magomed Bibulatov (14-1) entered UFC with extremely high hopes behind him thanks to a standout run in Russia and a World Series of Fighting (WSOF) title victory over Donavon Frelow. After cruising past Jenel Lausa in his Octagon debut, Bibulatov entered his fight with John Moraga as a massive favorite, only to eat a lights-out left hook just 98 seconds into the fight.
He will give up five inches each of height and reach to Yuta Sasaki (20-5-2).
Consecutive stoppage losses to Leandro Issa and Taylor Lapilus sent “Ulka” down to Flyweight, where he choked out Willie Gates and gave Wilson Reis an unexpectedly tough out in his first two appearances. He went on to upset the painfully upset-prone Justin Scoggins, winning “Performance of the Night” in the process, but tapped to Jussier Formiga’s patented rear-naked choke in Sept. 2017.
He has submitted 11 opponents and scored (technical) knockout victories over another two.
Bibulatov still has all the skills needed to make a serious run at title contention, but he now bears the burden of a cracked chin. If his confidence remains intact, he remains a potential Top 5-ranked Flyweight. If it doesn’t, well, it’s not like anyone’s beating Demetrious Johnson anyway.
Even assuming the worst-case scenario, though, he should demolish Sasaki, whose fearsome grappling is hamstrung by lackluster wrestling and striking. Both Bibulatov’s kickboxing and takedowns are miles against of Sasaki’s, and so long as he’s even remotely close to his best, this is an extraordinarily winnable fights. He dominates in all areas for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Bibulatov via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Luan Chagas

Injuries, illnesses and other issues have held Siyar Bahadurzada (23-6-1) to just four Octagon appearances since his debut knockout of Paulo Thiago in 2012. He returned from two years away to choke out Brandon Thatch in March 2016, then stepped up in weight to knockout Rob Wilkinson 18 months later.
He is nine years older than Luan Chagas (15-2-1) and will give up three inches of reach.
“Tarzan” opened his UFC career with a rare 1-1-1 run, drawing with Sergio Moraes, tapping to Erick Silva in a “Fight of the Night” and submitting Jim Wallhead in sequence. He was set to face Niko Price in Oct. 2017 before breaking his foot, making this his first appearance in 10 months.
His 15 stoppage wins are split 9:6 between submissions and knockouts and 10 of them came in the first round.
As fun as Bahadurzada is, he’s slow and ungainly with his punches ... not to mention lackluster off of his back. In Chagas, he faces a far younger, far more athletic, and far more well-rounded fighter. His only real hope here is finding the Brazilian’s chin early, otherwise he’s in for a long, frustrating night.
Chagas is early enough in his career that Bahadurzada could, conceivably, catch him with an ugly punch as “Tarzan” overextends. More likely, Chagas uses his length and kicks to pick apart Bahadurzada with power shots all night.
Prediction: Chagas via unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Corey Anderson vs. Patrick Cummins

Corey Anderson (9-4) — the man formerly known as “Beastin’ 25/8” -- started his UFC career 5-1, beating the likes of Jan Blachowicz and “Filthy’ Tom Lawlor along the way. He currently finds himself in a 1-3 slump, however, suffering knockout losses to Jimi Manuwa and Ovince Saint Preux in 2017.
He will have an inch of height and three inches of reach on Patrick Cummins (10-4).
Three knockouts in four fights had Cummins on the figurative ropes, but he bounced back with victories in his last two fights. Last April, he fought back from a disastrous first round to take a decision over Jan Blachowicz, then edged Gian Villante four months later.
He was originally slated to fight Anderson in Nov. 2017 before the latter got staph.
Imagine how scary Cummins would be if he had a chin. He’s just so damn relentless when he’s stable, only to disintegrate when he can’t withstand the return fire. The question, then, is whether Anderson has enough firepower to halt Cummins’ inexorable advance. “Overtime” has a nifty kickboxing game, but he’s never been a devastating striker, instead relying on his wrestling to open up ground-and-pound.
Without the means to reliably take down Cummins or put him to sleep, Anderson’s going to have serious issues keeping “Durkin” off of him. He moves well, sure, but Anderson’s striking has never been a cohesive whole. I say Cummins marches through his best shots and wears him down for another close decision victory.
Prediction: Cummins via unanimous decision

**Shagdogy** · 04-18-18, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Have a bunch of parlays going so far

Big pretty anchoring any of those?

**SmellMyFinger** · 04-18-18, 05:33 PM

i think la flare might be anchoring a few of them while the price is still right

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-18-18, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Big pretty anchoring any of those?

He's in a few yup

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-18-18, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by SmellMyFinger

i think la flare might be anchoring a few of them while the price is still right

LaFlare in one as well. Will be adding more to him later on

**turbozed** · 04-18-18, 10:42 PM

I'm not liking the prices on any of these so far. All the good dog value is against fighters that I really like, like Santos and Ladd.

Will just watch a bit more tape but don't want to force any chalky plays.

Anybody got an angle in a fight that they can point me to do a full analysis for?

**SmellMyFinger** · 04-19-18, 03:35 AM

at the current price i think nakamura is worth a play vs martin, looking into the sasaki vs bibulatov matchup as well (sasaki is a good scrambler and has a good rnc) i fully expect him to get taken down, but i think there is a good chance of him winning a scramble and making his way onto bibulatov's back. bibulatov is a very good prospect but still not tested imo. Sasaki itd is +573, waiting for the by sub prop

**SmellMyFinger** · 04-19-18, 03:47 AM

scratching my head a bit at the sterling vs jons fight, big stepup for jons but he's getting sterling at a good time.
still think it might be a little too much for the moment, sterling by dec +158 1u maybe the play for me but might wait and live bet this

hooker was a play for me vs miller but the price got too stepp in ML, hooker itd is +220, but might play the, WGTD at +168 (just to protect against a possible miller sub)

**JIBBBY** · 04-19-18, 01:11 PM

More write ups coming in - Early prelims..

135 lbs.: Leslie Smith (10-7-1) vs. Aspen Ladd (6-0)

Smith, entering her ninth year as a professional, enters the cage this Saturday on a winning streak for the first time since 2013. Undaunted by her knockout loss to Cris Cyborg, Smith upset Irene Aldana in a Fight of the Night-winning brawl before beating down unbeaten Brazilian Amanda Lemos in Glasgow. “The Peacemaker” stands three inches taller than Ladd at 5’9”, but their reaches are identical.
Ladd went 8-1 as an amateur, losing only to Cynthia Calvillo, before making her Invicta debut in 2015. She beat the likes of Amanda Cooper and Sijara Eubanks on her way to the Octagon, where she pounded out Lina Länsberg midway through the second round. She has stopped four pro opponents with strikes.
Ladd is a quality talent, but the stylistic matchup does not favor her. She’s an aggressive, come-forward striker who absorbs an inordinate amount of strikes until she can lock up a takedown and go to work with ground-and-pound. The problem here is that Smith hits way harder than Ladd does, is inordinately difficult to finish, and does not get tired.
Ladd’s strategy of pushing the pace until opponents succumb is profoundly ill-suited to dealing with the indefatigable Smith. “The Peacemaker” wears her down with body shots for a late stoppage.
Prediction: Smith by third-round TKO

135 lbs.: Merab Dvalishvili (7-3) vs. Ricky Simon (12-1)

Dvalishvili, a product of the vaunted Serra-Longo team, flipped the script on “Lookin’ for a Fight” by knocking out the favored Raufeon Stots in just 15 seconds. This set up a UFC debut against Frankie Saenz, who narrowly edged the Georgian in a grappling-heavy contest. Two of his three pro stoppage wins have come by knockout.
Though Simon emerged victorious on the Tuesday Night Contender Series, his split decision over Donavon Frelow wasn’t enough to earn him a UFC contract. Undeterred, he went on to batter Chico Camus for the vacant LFA Bantamweight title before flattening Vinicius Zani in his first and only defense. He replaces Augusto “Tanquinho” Mendes, who ran afoul of USADA, on around a month’s notice.
Simon looked meh against Frelow, solid against Camus, and looked terrifying against Zani. He’s got great wrestling, great hands, and plenty of time to improve at age 25. The problem is that Dvalishvili is a tank of a bantamweight, incredibly strong and adept in the grappling. His strength and the threat of his takedowns are enough to shut down Simon’s high-octane striking.
It’s also worth noting that Simon slowed down against Camus right around the start of the third round, and Camus was not the sort of suffocating wrestler Dvalishvili is. The Georgian battles back from a rough first round to grind his way to a controversial split decision.
Prediction: Dvalishvili by split decision

170 lbs.: Tony Martin (13-4) vs. Keita Nakamura (33-8-2)

Cardio issues led Martin to start his UFC career 1-3, suffering submission losses to Beneil Dariush and Leonardo Santos despite starting strong in both fights He got back on track with three straight wins, only to lose a split decision to Olivier Aubin-Mercier in his last bout. This will be his first appearance at welterweight since his fourth pro fight in 2012.
“K-Taro” has alternated wins and losses since rejoining the UFC in 2015 with a come-from-behind submission of Li Jingliang that earned him Performance of the Night. Most recently, he rebounded from an entertaining loss to Elizeu Zaleski with a split decision over Alex Morono in Saitama. 15 of his 17 submission wins have come by rear naked choke.
I’m definitely interested in seeing how Martin looks at 170. His sheer physicality was a big part of his success at 155, but it also held him to only a few minutes of quality action. Nakamura is a quality test for him, incredibly savvy on the mat but frustratingly inconsistent with his fight IQ.
Though “K-Taro” is never far from an out-of-nowhere choke, Martin is the cleaner striker and his wrestling figures to be a match for Nakamura’s judo. In addition, I expect Martin’s gas tank to hold up far better at 170, giving him the energy needed to exploit Nakamura’s lapses. Martin grinds out a victory on the feet and the mat.
Prediction: Martin by unanimous decision

**JIBBBY** · 04-19-18, 01:50 PM

^^ Thanks Sanity for the biiiitch points.. I think you are the only one that appreciates me copy and pasting up the basic write ups and predictions with every event.. lol...

**Thrilla** · 04-19-18, 02:04 PM

**JIBBBY** · 04-19-18, 02:06 PM

Kevin Lee should use his wrestling and whooop dat assss.. I'm going with Kevin Lee by sub myself...

1039 Lee wins by submission

+165

**Shagdogy** · 04-19-18, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

I'm not liking the prices on any of these so far. All the good dog value is against fighters that I really like, like Santos and Ladd.

Will just watch a bit more tape but don't want to force any chalky plays.

Anybody got an angle in a fight that they can point me to do a full analysis for?

Getting the same feeling as you. Check out Chagas/Baha and let me know what you think. At pretty much even money I have a side I kind of like, and an over/under that I really like in that one.