UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis (April 15, 2017)

[Kermit]

No fight night bonus for Rose.

[Shagdogy]

Clark 3u, -143
Waterson 1u, Even
Mendes .66u, +323

Not much on these tonight... good luck everyone. Really looking forward to watching some of these fights, just couldn't find bets for most of them.

Adding Nelson/Volkov o1.5, 2.35u, -235. Not real sure how this fight is gonna go but I'm gonna bank on Volkov's chin to at least go 1.5 rds.

Card Total: 2-2, +1.44u
2017 YTD: 35-19, +20.86u

This really should have been a much better night, but I didn't bet with confidence. I stayed off Whittaker even when the odds went up for him late. I believed in his skills and really like him, but got scared off it since we had never seen him fight a grappler like Jacare and had no examples of how he would do. And I did the same with Moicano. I really liked him to get the win but didn't play it because I couldn't find tape of his offensive takedown ability. A win is a win, and I have been winning consistently, but this should have been a much better night if I was willing to take a bit more risks and trust my gut.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Card Total: 2-2, +1.44u
2017 YTD: 35-19, +20.86u

This really should have been a much better night, but I didn't bet with confidence. I stayed off Whittaker even when the odds went up for him late. I believed in his skills and really like him, but got scared off it since we had never seen him fight a grappler like Jacare and had no examples of how he would do. And I did the same with Moicano. I really liked him to get the win but didn't play it because I couldn't find tape of his offensive takedown ability. A win is a win, and I have been winning consistently, but this should have been a much better night if I was willing to take a bit more risks and trust my gut.

I tried to convince you with that reply to your concerns about Whittaker lol. Either way profit is profit and you haven't had a losing night in a while. Keep up the good work!

[Shagdogy]

I tried to convince you with that reply to your concerns about Whittaker lol. Either way profit is profit and you haven't had a losing night in a while. Keep up the good work!

Yeah you and Jibbs both had Whittaker from the jump and never second guessed. My initial thoughts were Whittaker as well, but then I over thought it after watching tape. The real mistake I made was not hitting it late when the line went up and up. At that point he was worth a play even if I did have questions to Jacare's grappling. No way Whittaker should've been over 2-1.

[Sanity Check]

I'm fustrated to have hit both Whittaker and Anthony Smith & still not do as well as I would have liked.

[JIBBBY]

Yeah you and Jibbs both had Whittaker from the jump and never second guessed. My initial thoughts were Whittaker as well, but then I over thought it after watching tape. The real mistake I made was not hitting it late when the line went up and up. At that point he was worth a play even if I did have questions to Jacare's grappling. No way Whittaker should've been over 2-1.

Yep, i had thought Whittaker was quicker then people thought he was and Jacare is a bit cement footed and methodical with his movement.. I thought Whittaker would be able to defend the take downs or stay at distance and out of the clinch situations with foot speed and movement. That was the case as he slowly took his time and started landing strikes on Jacare until he knocked him out..

Whittaker is someone you really don't wanna fight right now..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Very happy with over +20u on the night as well as some exact picks throughout. Won on Cummings Under + Sub, Magomedov Decision, Duquesnoy Under, Moicano Decision, Whittaker, Namajunas Submission, Straight Parlays, Prop Parlays, and Full Card Props. Lost on Evans-Smith, Mendes, Smolka, Nelson, Johnson KO, and live betting. Missed cashing my DK Double Up by 1 significant strike which was annoying but overall it was a really fun night of fight betting. Glad to see lots of other posters making $$$. On to the next boys!

[Pinoy-T-X]

Very happy with over +20u on the night as well as some exact picks throughout. Won on Cummings Under + Sub, Magomedov Decision, Duquesnoy Under, Moicano Decision, Whittaker, Namajunas Submission, Straight Parlays, Prop Parlays, and Full Card Props. Lost on Evans-Smith, Mendes, Smolka, Nelson, Johnson KO, and live betting. Missed cashing my DK Double Up by 1 significant strike which was annoying but overall it was a really fun night of fight betting. Glad to see lots of other posters making $$$. On to the next boys!

good job, Hugo!

[Shagdogy]

Very happy with over +20u on the night as well as some exact picks throughout. Won on Cummings Under + Sub, Magomedov Decision, Duquesnoy Under, Moicano Decision, Whittaker, Namajunas Submission, Straight Parlays, Prop Parlays, and Full Card Props. Lost on Evans-Smith, Mendes, Smolka, Nelson, Johnson KO, and live betting. Missed cashing my DK Double Up by 1 significant strike which was annoying but overall it was a really fun night of fight betting. Glad to see lots of other posters making $$$. On to the next boys!

Killing it lately! Making me think I need to start betting props more often... scary.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Killing it lately! Making me think I need to start betting props more often... scary.

I think there's a lot of value in prop trends. JIBBBY has been betting UFC props forever so I've been learning from the best.

[JIBBBY]

I think there's a lot of value in prop trends. JIBBBY has been betting UFC props forever so I've been learning from the best.

You took it a step further then I Hugo.. You bet round props, and other abstract props that I typically don't touch... Round props, N/A decision props, etc..

You hit those rare round props you get paid cause the value is so great... That's what you've been doing and it's paying off.. Maybe I need to learn from you now Hugo..

I still wanna start playing the 2,3 and 4 team prop parlay's with each card for $20 a pop.. Those are like hitting the lotto if they hit considering most prop plays are valued at +250 or higher with each play pick. I'm still considering playing those in the future, just been lazy and haven't gotten around to it yet....

Many times in the past I can get on rolls and can hit 2, 3 and 4 fight props in a row.. I need to remember that and place in certain spots on each card from now on..

For example on this card I hit the last 2 props in a row.. If I just parlay'd these 2 up for giggles and kicks I would have had a big payout..

The Whittaker and Rose back to back wins would have parlay'd out nicely.. I was thinking about that Whittaker KO prop but didn't play it because I had a good amount riding on the straight already as I doubled up..

Would have loved to parlay up these last two big picks of mine on the card which I felt pretty good about at the time.. Even at $20 bucks just these 2 parlay'd up would have giving me another decent payout..

$100.00

$235.00

Win

4/15/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Robert Whittaker +235* vs Ronaldo Souza

$79.00

$434.50

Win

4/15/17 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1131 Namajunas wins by submission +550* vs Any other result

[JIBBBY]

I think there's a lot of value in prop trends. JIBBBY has been betting UFC props forever so I've been learning from the best.

I'm not the best just a grinder trying to squeak out event wins..... You are too humble Hugo..

Last 2 events you kicked my ass... You and Shaggy killing it..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think there's a lot of merit to the idea of getting on rolls with fights. For a 12 fight card I usually make four 3-team prop parlays that summarize my picks for each group of 3 fights. I toss a quarter unit on each and hit them enough to profit without much downside risk since I usually only need to win about 1 in 10 to break even. Definitely something I would recommend to SBR posters. I've also been making these parlays a bit simpler of late which has been paying off. Instead of the way I used to play all props I'll mix props and moneylines and take a little lower value with a higher chance of hitting. I.e. Gillespie -3.5/Cummins/Burgos -3.5 (+896) or Calvillo ITD/Mousasi/Cormier (+990) from the UFC 210 card. Finally, I think there is value in parlaying a few props that represent the most likely outcome in a fight. Last week I did a Sterling Decision/Magomedov Decision/Duquesnoy KO parlay for .5u at (+598). I got great value by combining 3 props that were all small minus odds into a single prop parlay which paid out.

[Ty$]

I think there's a lot of merit to the idea of getting on rolls with fights. For a 12 fight card I usually make four 3-team prop parlays that summarize my picks for each group of 3 fights. I toss a quarter unit on each and hit them enough to profit without much downside risk since I usually only need to win about 1 in 10 to break even. Definitely something I would recommend to SBR posters. I've also been making these parlays a bit simpler of late which has been paying off. Instead of the way I used to play all props I'll mix props and moneylines and take a little lower value with a higher chance of hitting. I.e. Gillespie -3.5/Cummins/Burgos -3.5 (+896) or Calvillo ITD/Mousasi/Cormier (+990) from the UFC 210 card. Finally, I think there is value in parlaying a few props that represent the most likely outcome in a fight. Last week I did a Sterling Decision/Magomedov Decision/Duquesnoy KO parlay for .5u at (+598). I got great value by combining 3 props that were all small minus odds into a single prop parlay which paid out.

Hugo you're a boss! 😂 This is how I make my big pay days unfortunately. I mean the big nights like put in $150 end w $1500. I hit a small 4 propper sat. Elliot/Mag/Volkov/Sterling all by decision $5 won $70 and saved most my night from my dumbass betting on the hottie

[PaperTrail07]

For sure---Ive been blind and cold as ICE.....betting dumb as well.....back on track next event ....its happens though-its rough---even ole JIBBERs questioned the game at one point haha...hes a grinder tried and true

I'm not the best just a grinder trying to squeak out event wins..... You are too humble Hugo..

Last 2 events you kicked my ass... You and Shaggy killing it..

[Hugo de Naranja]

For sure---Ive been blind and cold as ICE.....betting dumb as well.....back on track next event ....its happens though-its rough---even ole JIBBERs questioned the game at one point haha...hes a grinder tried and true

We've all been there before. Just got to keep putting in the work and not get discouraged.

[Ty$]

I went cold as ice towards last September. Literally only bet UFC 205 since and lost again then came back after football and have been doin pretty good overall. I think stepping away and just watching for a bit helps a ton. Might sound odd but I also felt this forum persuades me in directions I usually wouldn't take. Cuz of all the "experts"... its mma anything can happen and does a lot ...

[PaperTrail07]

100%.....trust your game

We've all been there before. Just got to keep putting in the work and not get discouraged.

[Shagdogy]

I went cold as ice towards last September. Literally only bet UFC 205 since and lost again then came back after football and have been doin pretty good overall. I think stepping away and just watching for a bit helps a ton. Might sound odd but I also felt this forum persuades me in directions I usually wouldn't take. Cuz of all the "experts"... its mma anything can happen and does a lot ...

For sure... I value the opinion of a lot of people here but if you watch tape and make your pics based on your own research, you will be much happier with the results when you win, and it will be easier to live with the losses.

Sometimes I'm going against the masses and I win, and sometimes I go against them and I lose, but at least they're my picks. One thing I've noticed about myself is that I tend to be more confident and invested in the undercard fighters than most on here. Devin Clark, for example this card. Not popular here at all, but my biggest play. On the flip side, Whittaker was very popular and I researched myself right off that play. Works both ways, I just feel like I find most of my gems on the undercard.

[Hugo de Naranja]

For sure... I value the opinion of a lot of people here but if you watch tape and make your pics based on your own research, you will be much happier with the results when you win, and it will be easier to live with the losses.

Sometimes I'm going against the masses and I win, and sometimes I go against them and I lose, but at least they're my picks. One thing I've noticed about myself is that I tend to be more confident and invested in the undercard fighters than most on here. Devin Clark, for example this card. Not popular here at all, but my biggest play. On the flip side, Whittaker was very popular and I researched myself right off that play. Works both ways, I just feel like I find most of my gems on the undercard.

All good points. I've definitely noticed you hitting on a lot of undercard fights that I've passed on betting so props to you on that.