UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis (April 15, 2017)

[firekillex]

karate hottie is 100% being pushed way more then rose by the UFC , shes being pushed with PVZ the most out of any 115er then JJ in europe...

but to think the refs / judges give any shit if the fighter is a big name would be false imo, theyre part of a commission that have nothing to do with the UFC or have any interest at all to help them, hence pulling big fights/ fighters from cards for drug tests or other things. Dana white hates mostly all commissions , refs and judges lol his plans for starts have been screwed multiple times by all 3 its a gamble in the end of things, theres a few good refs in the sport and a ton of unintelligent judges who dont even know the sport, the sports still super young but even in older sports like boxing judges are horse shit so who knows if thatll ever be truly right .. What would be cool is if the UFC engaged the fans more and had a judging system where say 25% of the decision was to a fan vote where 50% was judges and 25% was fighters or something like that to make it really fair but i doubt thatll ever happen

[GoBlue77]

karate hottie is 100% being pushed way more then rose by the UFC , shes being pushed with PVZ the most out of any 115er then JJ in europe...

but to think the refs / judges give any shit if the fighter is a big name would be false imo, theyre part of a commission that have nothing to do with the UFC or have any interest at all to help them, hence pulling big fights/ fighters from cards for drug tests or other things. Dana white hates mostly all commissions , refs and judges lol his plans for starts have been screwed multiple times by all 3 its a gamble in the end of things, theres a few good refs in the sport and a ton of unintelligent judges who dont even know the sport, the sports still super young but even in older sports like boxing judges are horse shit so who knows if thatll ever be truly right .. What would be cool is if the UFC engaged the fans more and had a judging system where say 25% of the decision was to a fan vote where 50% was judges and 25% was fighters or something like that to make it really fair but i doubt thatll ever happen

was just going to post something like this

WATTERSON is the UFC's golden child. They want her to win BAD! REALLY BAD!

I would not bet against her, entire week has been a Karate Hottie promotion. Some how some way she will get the W I'm thinking

[Hugo de Naranja]

was just going to post something like this

WATTERSON is the UFC's golden child. They want her to win BAD! REALLY BAD!

I would not bet against her, entire week has been a Karate Hottie promotion. Some how some way she will get the W I'm thinking

Not if she gets subbed. Hoping someone gets finished here. Both are good finishers (for Strawweight women) and both are also prone to putting themselves in bad positions/gassing.

[firekillex]

Not if she gets subbed. Hoping someone gets finished here. Both are good finishers (for Strawweight women) and both are also prone to putting themselves in bad positions/gassing.

agreed hugo, both are very solid finishers... i actually like fight doesnt go the distance +115 for this scrap the more i look into things because i could see either winning i dont wanna take one straight up to win , toss up fight imo

[RussianMike]

karate hottie is 100% being pushed way more then rose by the UFC , shes being pushed with PVZ the most out of any 115er then JJ in europe...

but to think the refs / judges give any shit if the fighter is a big name would be false imo, theyre part of a commission that have nothing to do with the UFC or have any interest at all to help them, hence pulling big fights/ fighters from cards for drug tests or other things. Dana white hates mostly all commissions , refs and judges lol his plans for starts have been screwed multiple times by all 3 its a gamble in the end of things, theres a few good refs in the sport and a ton of unintelligent judges who dont even know the sport, the sports still super young but even in older sports like boxing judges are horse shit so who knows if thatll ever be truly right .. What would be cool is if the UFC engaged the fans more and had a judging system where say 25% of the decision was to a fan vote where 50% was judges and 25% was fighters or something like that to make it really fair but i doubt thatll ever happen

Maybe. But then again theres a certain part of me that knows it can easily skew that way despite the theatrics Dana or whomever puts on. I mean, we are talking about business, right? Everything else coming up rigged, why not UFC , especially in desperation? Lemme put it to ya like this, was there any doubt in anyone's mind who won the second Diaz/McGregor fight? Sure. Probably split around 50/50, right? Was there any doubt in anyone's mind who would be called the winner after the last round? Fook no, we all were certain McGregor would be winner. Why?
I certainly think UFC is in contact with commission. Our stock markets, medical system, legal, judiciary, political, school, corporate systems... All our shit rigged , you think I'm not tossing few duckets on the fight game having a little somethin somethin up with it, you crazy. Will def consider tossing Water+over into some parlay fliers.

[RussianMike]

agreed hugo, both are very solid finishers... i actually like fight doesnt go the distance +115 for this scrap the more i look into things because i could see either winning i dont wanna take one straight up to win , toss up fight imo

Does anyone here by any chance know a site or somewhere I can look at 5Dimes lines without opening an account? Maybe a site like VegasInsider, but with full online book menus w odds? Also, here in Vegas, the don't have distance odds, but Waterson fight is at 2.5 , with the under sitting at +145. When comparing to distance odds online, what would be best way to figure out/look for value on either/or line?

[Ty$]

Pumped for the fight tonight!!! Who saw Patrick Williams is up to +600... that's kinda nuts vs a UFC newcomer

[Shagdogy]

I have Whittaker here because I think his footwork will help him stick-and-move to a decision where he hurts Jacare a few times. I hedged with Jacare Round 1 since I think if Jacare gets a TD it's over. He is a very good finisher and has 17 first round finishes, including some over solid UFC competition.

I really like Whittaker and I thought I would see it this way too, but after going back and watching tape I just think it's not a matter of if, but when Jacare gets a takedown. I know Whittaker has never been taken down and kept down, but who would have done that to him? Brunson was too busy running around with his chin high. Clint Hester? No.

I know you've been watching a lot of tape Hugo... did you see anything in particular that makes you think Whittaker can stop Jacare's takedowns in particular? I'm just conflicted. I think maybe he can, but I just haven't seen it yet since he hasn't been tested the way Jacare will. Been going back and forth on this one for a long time now.

[Shagdogy]

Not if she gets subbed. Hoping someone gets finished here. Both are good finishers (for Strawweight women) and both are also prone to putting themselves in bad positions/gassing.

I have this one super close like everyone else, but I think Waterson's strength in the grappling game will be the difference. She is just physically stronger than Rose and I think that will lead to an advantage in the takedowns and time in top control. Think she will outwork Rose on the mat.

[Shagdogy]

I don't like to play a lot of specific outcomes, but Bobby Green vs. Rashid Magomedov seems perfect for playing Magomedov by TKO at +275 hedged with Green by dec. at +400. Any thoughts?

[bjpenn85]

I don't like to play a lot of specific outcomes, but Bobby Green vs. Rashid Magomedov seems perfect for playing Magomedov by TKO at +275 hedged with Green by dec. at +400. Any thoughts?

Magomedovs primary method of winning is by dec at ufc level. If you look at his record + tape, that is so evident and true, its almost a natural law.

So for that to NOT to happen, he needs to hunt for the finish, or meet a guy with really bad chin, or that isnt on his level.

In this particular event green is a good enough fighter and has good enough chin to sustain three rounds. He probably wont clown magomedov to the degree that hes getting KOed twice in a row.

Additionally, Magomedov is a pretty bad finisher, not because of skills, but hes very risk adverse. So as long as a fighter are not basically dead and unconscious he will stick to the "wait and see" approach, unfortunately letting people back into the fight. Take a look at the gilbert Burnes fight, dreadful.

He hurt every opponents in his ufc fight except dariush, but has only 1 KO out of 4 wins.

Logically, if he couldn't finish Tony Martin, Damm or Burns, why should he finish Green, which is the vastly better striker of the above mentioned?

Obviously, life isnt constant and non-developing, teams make adjustment, fighter progress and become better, and what do i know, maybe magomedov get the late finish, but under normal circumstances, the logical pick here is magomedov by dec.

[bjpenn85]

Magomedov was 5 sec away, not getting the finish of Silverio..then he would have had 4 dec out of 4 wins. Green fights like an idiot. But he also fought competitively with Edson Barboza. Barboza is a lot more aggressive than Magomedov and barboza wasnt close...not by a mile, to finish green off.

[Shagdogy]

Magomedov was 5 sec away, not getting the finish of Silverio..then he would have had 4 dec out of 4 wins. Green fights like an idiot. But he also fought competitively with Edson Barboza. Barboza is a lot more aggressive than Magomedov and barboza wasnt close...not by a mile, to finish green off.

Agree with everyone's assessments of Magomedov. I guess I just really don't trust Green or his chin right now.

Edit: Also, my thinking with the Green by dec. hedge is that if Magomedov does not get the TKO then Green will win because he will be more active.

[Ty$]

Hugo where's your plays? Your hedge game is on point!💰

[Pinoy-T-X]

Liking the
over 1.5 on Nelson/volkov
and the over 2.5 on green/magomedov

[bjpenn85]

Agree with everyone's assessments of Magomedov. I guess I just really don't trust Green or his chin right now.

Edit: Also, my thinking with the Green by dec. hedge is that if Magomedov does not get the TKO then Green will win because he will be more active.

Thats also true. Can one trust Green at this point? Probably not. So that is two fold, he can be good enough, or he may not be at all, clowning and what not. So for that reason, you should have a high number on magomedov to finish to even take the chance. With more or less degree of reluctancy involved, one should also ask, why am i even making the bet, if im that reluctant?

Magomedov also has a habit of fighting in a pace and with a rate of offence making sure hes winning. So if green turns up the volume, will magomedov do that the extent that know he wins every round. In his last fight he didnt, because of the pressure Dariush put on him.

Natural question is then, did he learn something from that fight, and will he make the necessary adjustments to counter that?

at -300 it seems a bit unfair withouth a hedge on green by dec. If it wasnt for the inactivity of magomedov the fight wouldn def be easier. But you will always have some sort of limiting factor on all bets. No bets are 100% clear cut.

[firekillex]

Maybe. But then again theres a certain part of me that knows it can easily skew that way despite the theatrics Dana or whomever puts on. I mean, we are talking about business, right? Everything else coming up rigged, why not UFC , especially in desperation? Lemme put it to ya like this, was there any doubt in anyone's mind who won the second Diaz/McGregor fight? Sure. Probably split around 50/50, right? Was there any doubt in anyone's mind who would be called the winner after the last round? Fook no, we all were certain McGregor would be winner. Why?
I certainly think UFC is in contact with commission. Our stock markets, medical system, legal, judiciary, political, school, corporate systems... All our shit rigged , you think I'm not tossing few duckets on the fight game having a little somethin somethin up with it, you crazy. Will def consider tossing Water+over into some parlay fliers.

imo it was fairly obvious mcgregor won that decision, i was with around 10 people half who hated mcgregor and every person in the room had mcgregor winning the decision ... i think its mostly haters online who tried to say he lost, it was a close fight but no way he lost that , mostly just conspiracy theories people saying the refs/judges and ufc are in cahoots together with some master plan , the ufc has been screwed by way to many suspensions/decisions for me to agree

http://www.mmaodds.com/

btw for odds all sites

[Ty$]

Liking the
over 1.5 on Nelson/volkov
and the over 2.5 on green/magomedov

I like the call but not the odds

[A.M.S.]

Hey russian... u can just look at sbr odds http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/

[BIGDAY]

It's FIGHT NIGHT!

[Teem]

What do you guys think of Stephens v Moicano? Moicano hasn't fought in a year and he didn't do too well after a long break before that. I'm thinking Stephens gets a KO here.

[TPowell]

Sorry guys, started a new job and have been busy lately but still going strong on ToutMaster and making plays. Hugo and I have made respectable showings so far. Top 35 out of nearly 200 people. Anyways, my thoughts on this card is CHALK


Parlayed up Cummings with Sanchez and Magomedov at plus money and Cummings again with Stephens at -115 or so.

I LOVE Nelson/Volkov going the distance so I have the OVER 1.5 parlayed with the Evans Smith OVER 2.5 at better than even money. I also have Volkov by DEC at +170 as a solid play.

Taking a shot on Augusto Mendes at +350 against Sterling. Doubt Sterling wants to mess around too much on the ground with him and Sterling has ZERO pop on his punches. Should be a borefest and I'll take the big dog that will last 3 rounds easily in a tight fight.

Going with Rose as well. Not sure anybody can say Waterson is so great. She hasn't faced ANY competition while Rose just went tooth and nail for KK, the second best technical striker in the division.

Prop shots- Stephens in R3, Smolka by SUB, Reis by SUB, and Vieira by SUB for a hedge

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo where's your plays? Your hedge game is on point!

Thanks man! Still finalizing a few things.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I really like Whittaker and I thought I would see it this way too, but after going back and watching tape I just think it's not a matter of if, but when Jacare gets a takedown. I know Whittaker has never been taken down and kept down, but who would have done that to him? Brunson was too busy running around with his chin high. Clint Hester? No.

I know you've been watching a lot of tape Hugo... did you see anything in particular that makes you think Whittaker can stop Jacare's takedowns in particular? I'm just conflicted. I think maybe he can, but I just haven't seen it yet since he hasn't been tested the way Jacare will. Been going back and forth on this one for a long time now.

Brunson attempted a few good TDs on him and was close but Whittaker wiggled out. I was impressed with his ability to stay calm under crazy pressure from Brunson. I think Jacare relies a lot on getting opponents against the cage to score TDs. In pretty much all of the Whittaker fights I watched he doesn't get trapped with his back to the cage because of his footwork. I like his chances to keep the fight in open space.

One thing Jacare did against Boetsch was to shoot a telegraphed TD in open space to at least get the clinch so he could start working for a better TD against the fence. I think Whittaker will deny him that opportunity to clinch up. I see this fight sort of like Ferguson vs. Dos Anjos where both guys have pressure backgrounds but one (Dos Anjos) really needs the fence to be successful. In that fight, Ferguson was able to keep the fight at range and touch Dos Anjos up with jabs and unorthodox strikes. Whittaker's unorthodox striking may be able to catch Souza with something like a lead uppercut coming in. I see Whittaker/Jacare going similarly to Ferguson/Dos Anjos.

On paper, Whittaker is probably the worst matchup in the division for Jacare (imo worse than Romero, and even Rockhold) so I'm comfortable with the bet at (+201) and certainly won't lose sleep if Jacare takes him down and insta subs him.

[PaperTrail07]

Its time big country baby

[Ty$]

Its time big country baby

How do you see him winning? KO or DEC?

[Sanity Check]

karate hottie is 100% being pushed way more then rose by the UFC , shes being pushed with PVZ the most out of any 115er then JJ in europe...

The UFC isn't pushing Michelle Waterson.

A good part of her exposure comes from her samsung sponsorship/samsung commercials.

PVZ has a mobile PCS sponsorship, was on dancing with the stars and a cooking reality tv show.

Those big corporate sponsorships are what people like Waterson and PVZ have that other strawweights don't.

Its like Jon Jones and his nike sponsorship, before nike decided to drop him.

[JIBBBY]

Stunk up the UFC last card early on but killed it in the end by loading up on Mousasi and DC.. Overall though my W/L performance for that card was garbage.. Hoping to do better with this card..

Playing this card a bit more conservative.. Playing straights when I don't see the finishing props as a promising and definite out come for that fighter....

These are my plays.. Mostly $100-$200 wagers on each fight with no load ups...

1) Ashley Smith Straight
2) Coy/Cummins O1.5
3) Sanchez ITD/and KO small
4) Clark Straight
5) Sterling by Dec
6) Smolka Straight/ and Sub small
7) Magomedov by Dec
8) Dequesnoy by KO
9) Volkov Straight/and KO small
10) Stephens by KO/hedge Miocano by dec
11) Whittaker straight/hedged Jacare by Sub (larger wagers)
12) Rose/Hottie 02.5 and Rose Straight
13) Mighty Mouse by dec

Good luck gents..

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 24: Johnson vs. Reis Picks:
Ashlee Evans-Smith Round 3 TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Zak Cummings Round 1 Submission (D’Arce Choke)
Andrew Sanchez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Devin Clark Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Aljamain Sterling Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Tim Elliott Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Rashid Magomedov Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Tom Duquesnoy Round 1 KO (Standing Elbow)
Roy Nelson Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Renato Moicano Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Robert Whittaker Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Rose Namajunas Round 1 Submission (Kimura)
Demetrious Johnson Round 4 TKO (Knees and Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 24: Johnson vs. Reis Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Demetrious Johnson ($9,800)
Tom Duquesnoy ($9,300)
Ashlee Evans-Smith ($8,500)
Robert Whittaker ($7,500)
Augusto Mendes ($7,400)
Louis Smolka ($7,200)

Risk: 1u

UFC on Fox 24: Johnson vs. Reis Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Demetrious Johnson ($9,800)
Zak Cummings ($9,400)
Rose Namajunas ($8,200)
Roy Nelson ($8,100)
Augusto Mendes ($7,400)
Bobby Green ($7,100)

Risk: .2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 24: Johnson vs. Reis

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Evans-Smith vs. Vieira
Evans-Smith -3.5 (+175) .5u
Evans-Smith ITD (+299) 1u
Evans-Smith Round 2 (+775) .5u
Evans-Smith Round 3 (+1325) .5u

Fight #2: Cummings vs. Coy
Cummings+Coy Under 1.5 (+160) 1u
Cummings Submission (+255) .5u
Cummings Round 2 (+400) .25u

Fight #3: Sterling vs. Mendes
Mendes (+265) 2u
Mendes Submission (+1350) .25u

Hedge:
Sterling Round 3 (+1325) .5u

Fight #4: Sanchez vs. Smith
Sanchez Decision (+160) .5u

Fight #5: Clark vs. Collier
No Bet

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #6: Elliott vs. Smolka
Smolka (+230) 1u
Smolka ITD (+750) 1u

Hedge(s):
Elliott -3.5 (+135) .5u
Elliott Submission (+474) .5u

Fight #7: Magomedov vs. Green
Magomedov Decision (-115) 1.15u to win 1u

Fight #8: Duquesnoy (DEBUT) vs. Williams
Duquesnoy+Williams Under 1.5 (-110) 2.2u to win 2u
Williams (+600) .5u
Williams Submission (+1465) .25u

Fight #9: Nelson vs. Volkov
Nelson Scorecards = No Action (+100) 2.25u
Nelson Decision (+479) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #10: Stephens vs. Moicano
Moicano Decision (+350) 1u
Moicano Submission (+650) .5u

Hedge:
Stephens Round 3 (+1050) .25u

Fight #11: Souza vs. Whittaker
Whittaker (+201) 2.5u
Whittaker Decision (+650) .5u

Hedge:
Souza Round 1 (+250) 1u

Fight #12: Namajunas vs. Waterson
Namajunas Submission (+415) 1.5u

Hedge(s):
Waterson Submission (+585) 1u
Waterson Round 3 (+1700) .25u

Fight #13: Johnson (C) vs. Reis
Johnson Unanimous Decision (+160) 1u
Johnson ITD (+162) 1u
Johnson KO/TKO (+210) 1u
Johnson Round 4 (+1450) .25u
Johnson Round 5 (+2150) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Duquesnoy+Williams Under 1.5/Johnson (+104) 1u
Cummings/Magomedov+Green Over 2.5 (+105) 1u
Sanchez/Magomedov+Green Over 2.5 (+125) 1u
Cummings/Duquesnoy+Williams Under 1.5 (+129) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Magomedov -3.5/Johnson -5.5 (+117) 1u
Nelson+Volkov GD/Namajunas+Waterson WGD (+302) 1u
Evans-Smith/Cummings+Coy WGD/Sanchez+Smith WGD (+367) .25u
Sterling Decision/Magomedov Decision/Duquesnoy KO (+598) .5u
Whittaker/Namajunas/Johnson+Reis GD (+879) .25u
Clark Decision/Sterling Decision/Elliott+Smolka GD (+1082) .25u
Mendes Decision/Whittaker (+1965) .25u
Magomedov Decision/Duquesnoy KO/Nelson/Moicano (+1994) .25u
Evans-Smith ITD/Whittaker KO/Johnson+Reis WGD (+3259) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+223) 1.25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+550) .5u
Duquesnoy Wins Fastest KO (+700) 1u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+1525) .25u
Over 10.5 Fights Go Distance (+6100) .1u

[firekillex]

The UFC isn't pushing Michelle Waterson.

A good part of her exposure comes from her samsung sponsorship/samsung commercials.

PVZ has a mobile PCS sponsorship, was on dancing with the stars and a cooking reality tv show.

Those big corporate sponsorships are what people like Waterson and PVZ have that other strawweights don't.

Its like Jon Jones and his nike sponsorship, before nike decided to drop him.

waterson literally had a press conference on a card she wasnt fighting lol....
its obvious whos being pushed by the ufc when they hold press conferences/scrums for people theyre being pushed heavily
example, cody garbrandt, francis ngannou, michelle watterson, PVZ just to name a few

[Shagdogy]

Clark 3u, -143
Waterson 1u, Even
Mendes .66u, +323

Not much on these tonight... good luck everyone. Really looking forward to watching some of these fights, just couldn't find bets for most of them.

[JIBBBY]

Early start time today boys.. Got NBA playoffs as well.. Sports filled Saturday for Sure!!

Early prelims start in an hour!!




Got this little 2 team ML parlay in the works on all books for a nickel. I think it's a lock..

Ticket#:3478826 Apr 15 05:30 PM Apr 15 03:00 PM

Apr 15 12:46 AM

NBA NBA

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [504] TORONTO -310 [502] CLEVELAND -410

500.00 / 322.58

[Marillion]

Excited for tonight's fights.. even if it is a Fight Night, it has tons of exciting fights, ranked fighters etc... unlike UFC 210, where both the main event and the co-main event included 1 guy who wanted to get out of the octagon ASAP lol.

Clark 1.70
Sanchez within the distance 2.20
Cummings distance 1.66
Evans-Smith distance 4.50
Evans-Smith by decision 2.20
Reis distance 12.00
Stephens 1.57
Jacare distance 2.00
Volkov 1.62
Smolka 2.75
Smolka distance 7.50
Williams 9.00...
Yeah I hate those American-style odds. Used to the decimals since I was 5 and my dad was betting on soccer games lol.
I have a lean on Waterson but not touching it... I think.