UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis (April 15, 2017)

[GoBlue77]

Rose has some heat behind those hands

http://www.mmafighting.com/2017/4/13/15296124/rose-namajunas-ufc-on-fox-24-open-workout-video

[rsynweap84]

Oh man, Smolka was showing the pain on his weight cut just now when he weighed in he did make it, but...wondering if he'll be okay for the fight tomorrow, hopefully it doesn't impact him to bad, he's such a good dog to bet on...

[Shagdogy]

Looking at Smith and Mendes as live dogs. Sterling should be favored here but no way he should be -425 or more. That's crazy. And as for Smith, his TDD is horrendous, but Sanchez has a habit of standing on the outside and keeping his hands low. He should be favored for sure, but the line is a bit inflated.

[rsynweap84]

Everyone made weight fights look like a go again! Very nice!

[PaperTrail07]

Does APPEAR that way for now LOL....

Everyone made weight fights look like a go again! Very nice!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Looking at Smith and Mendes as live dogs. Sterling should be favored here but no way he should be -425 or more. That's crazy. And as for Smith, his TDD is horrendous, but Sanchez has a habit of standing on the outside and keeping his hands low. He should be favored for sure, but the line is a bit inflated.

Sterling is an autofade for me at these odds. Smith KO/TKO or ITD may be worth a look but I think it's very unlikely that he wins a decision.

[Shagdogy]

Sterling is an autofade for me at these odds. Smith KO/TKO or ITD may be worth a look but I think it's very unlikely that he wins a decision.

Mendes might have something. Beating Frankie Saenz on the feet is a solid feather in his cap, and even though he's not young, he should show some improvements since he's pretty green in MMA. He's a proven world class competitor in BJJ, and if he did that with work ethic and athletic ability, he might surprise people with his MMA career. This fight in particular would really show something. Sterling's grappling is good but his pure wrestling is not that strong. Mendes needs to press him to the cage and see if he can get him on the ground and make it a BJJ match. If he tries to strike, Sterling will probably be too long for him.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Smashed Nelson Scorecards = No Action at (-133). May play line movement and freeroll. Not sure yet

[Hugo de Naranja]

Mendes might have something. Beating Frankie Saenz on the feet is a solid feather in his cap, and even though he's not young, he should show some improvements since he's pretty green in MMA. He's a proven world class competitor in BJJ, and if he did that with work ethic and athletic ability, he might surprise people with his MMA career. This fight in particular would really show something. Sterling's grappling is good but his pure wrestling is not that strong. Mendes needs to press him to the cage and see if he can get him on the ground and make it a BJJ match. If he tries to strike, Sterling will probably be too long for him.

Sterling throws almost all kicks, with the exception of R3 of the Assuncao fight where he FINALLY threw some fuckingg punches

[Shagdogy]

Sterling throws almost all kicks, with the exception of R3 of the Assuncao fight where he FINALLY threw some fuckingg punches

Yeah. Agreed. He will let his hands go a bit more when he's countering. He doesn't like to strike first and when he's forced to it's very very kick heavy. The problem in that Assuncao fight is it was two guys who like to counter. That issue won't play into this fight because Mendes will come forward. That could actually help Sterling get his offense going though. He'll have plenty of opportunities to counter and Mendes will close the distance for him, so his hands should come into play here. Stick and move for Sterling versus use strikes to close distance and clinch/trip/grapple for Mendes.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah. Agreed. He will let his hands go a bit more when he's countering. He doesn't like to strike first and when he's forced to it's very very kick heavy. The problem in that Assuncao fight is it was two guys who like to counter. That issue won't play into this fight because Mendes will come forward. That could actually help Sterling get his offense going though. He'll have plenty of opportunities to counter and Mendes will close the distance for him, so his hands should come into play here. Stick and move for Sterling versus use strikes to close distance and clinch/trip/grapple for Mendes.

My pick is Sterling by a very tight decision but I think there's value on Mendes at this price. I also took a small stab on Mendes Sub at (+1350).

[Shagdogy]

I wish the line wasn't so absurd so we could be talking about how excited we are for Duquesnoy to be in the UFC... but if you pay -850 for anything in MMA you're nuts.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I wish the line wasn't so absurd so we could be talking about how excited we are for Duquesnoy to be in the UFC... but if you pay -850 for anything in MMA you're nuts.

I have a big play on the under 1.5 with a few units on (-110) and 2 parlays with it. Took Williams + Sub for small. Think that could be a one round war. Both guys with exciting styles but Williams is chinny and has no gas tank

[Teem]

Pretty sure these are my picks:

Evans-Smith
Cummings
Sterling
Sanchez
Magomedov
Duquesnoy
Stephens
Souza
MM

All have to win for a payout.

The only ones I'm concerned about are Sterling and Magomedov.

Fading big country and Volkov. Although I do think Clark lays on Collier, I'm staying away. I believe Elliot will do well striking against Smolka and lock in a decision but I'm fading this one as well. I can't decide on the Namajunas v Waterson fight so I'm not gonna bother with it.

BOL to all!

[Shagdogy]

I have a big play on the under 1.5 with a few units on (-110) and 2 parlays with it. Took Williams + Sub for small. Think that could be a one round war. Both guys with exciting styles but Williams is chinny and has no gas tank

Probably a good call with the under. I might take a look at that myself.

[Sanity Check]

Anyone got Bellator 177 results?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone got Bellator 177 results?

I think Dantas and Weichel both won split decisions

[Sanity Check]

I think Dantas and Weichel both won split decisions

Thx for info.

I only need Dantas to cash.

[JIBBBY]

Bellator delayed again on Spike.. Some results already in and won't be the spoiler..

I decided to fade Dantes for a 50 spot this go around.. On all the other favorites..

[Shagdogy]

Started really capping the Whittaker/Jacare fight and I was thinking that I'd like Whittaker in this spot. I won money on him vs. Brunson and I really like the trajectory he is on and the sprawl and brawl style that he imposes on people, BUT there's a big problem. Whittaker has stuffed a number of takedown attempts up against the cage in his previous fights, and Jacare does not fail on his takedowns if he can get you backed up to the cage. I think this fight is 100% about where it takes place. In the center, Whittaker will land more shots and will be able to avoid the takedowns of Jacare. Against the cage, Jacare drags it to the ground and he's the first guy to pin Whittaker there in the UFC. There's a certain inevitability to Jacare's grip and strength in his takdedowns IF he can get you to the cage. I'm banking on it. Great fight here, but I think Jacare will be just too much for Whittaker.

[Shagdogy]

IDK? I don't ever remember seeing Whittaker taken down and controlled.. He's quick too and has big legs and probably pops right back up.. Souza isn't a wrestling based fighter either with world class take downs...

I think this fight is up in the air.... Flip a coin.. I think Whittaker has a very good chance if this one stays standing..

Whittaker has a great chance if it stays standing, but he absolutely MUST stay off the cage for that to happen. In recent fights he has fought off takedowns while using the cage, and that just won't work vs. Jacare. Also, I was buying into Whittaker's TDD for a while and I still think it is very good, BUT it's impossible to say yet if it's good enough to survive Jacare. He just hasn't fought anyone with the ability and desire to take him down like Jacare will attempt. Watch all the tape you want and you really can't piece together what's going to happen in this fight, but historically, you're better off taking the guy with the incredible skill in takedowns and control. This is a great fight, but man, Jacare won't be denied if he can back you up to the cage and it's a tall order to ask Whittaker to stick and move without ever getting backed up for the entire fight. Give me Jacare by a slim margin.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Whittaker has a great chance if it stays standing, but he absolutely MUST stay off the cage for that to happen. In recent fights he has fought off takedowns while using the cage, and that just won't work vs. Jacare. Also, I was buying into Whittaker's TDD for a while and I still think it is very good, BUT it's impossible to say yet if it's good enough to survive Jacare. He just hasn't fought anyone with the ability and desire to take him down like Jacare will attempt. Watch all the tape you want and you really can't piece together what's going to happen in this fight, but historically, you're better off taking the guy with the incredible skill in takedowns and control. This is a great fight, but man, Jacare won't be denied if he can back you up to the cage and it's a tall order to ask Whittaker to stick and move without ever getting backed up for the entire fight. Give me Jacare by a slim margin.

I have Whittaker here because I think his footwork will help him stick-and-move to a decision where he hurts Jacare a few times. I hedged with Jacare Round 1 since I think if Jacare gets a TD it's over. He is a very good finisher and has 17 first round finishes, including some over solid UFC competition.

[Ty$]

Bovada still has the Dantas fight up and line is still moving?

[JIBBBY]

Thx for info.

I only need Dantas to cash.

Good call on Dantas Sanity!!!!.. I tried to get cute and pick a dog at +190 and failed.. I thought Dantas might get muscled on the ground.. It never went there...

Favorites cash again in Bellator anyways!!.. I did come out on top though and didn't go crazy with fading Dantas...

This is how I bet the event and these are the results....

$140.00

$100.00

Win

4/14/17 4:00pm Bellator Fighting 3302 Lena Ovchynnikova -140* vs Helen Harper

$160.00	$164.60		Win	2 Team Parlay
									Win	4/14/17 5:00pm Bellator Fighting 3101 Daniel Weichel -165* vs John Teixeira
									Win	4/14/17 4:30pm Bellator Fighting 3202 Adam Borics -380* vs Anthony Taylor

$50.00

$95.00

Loss

4/14/17 5:30pm Bellator Fighting 3001 Leandro Higo +190* vs Eduardo Dantas

Total profit for event $214.00 ... I'll take it .. Hope I do better tomorrow night..

[Ty$]

I put $25 on the over of Dantas after I saw Hugo's post... they paid me

[Sanity Check]

Good call on Dantas Sanity!!!!.. I tried to get cute and pick a dog at +190 and failed.. I thought Dantas might get muscled on the ground.. It never went there...

Favorites cash again in Bellator anyways!!.. I did come out on top though and didn't go crazy with fading Dantas...

This is how I bet the event and these are the results....

$140.00

$100.00

Win

4/14/17 4:00pm Bellator Fighting 3302 Lena Ovchynnikova -140* vs Helen Harper

$160.00	$164.60		Win	2 Team Parlay
									Win	4/14/17 5:00pm Bellator Fighting 3101 Daniel Weichel -165* vs John Teixeira
									Win	4/14/17 4:30pm Bellator Fighting 3202 Adam Borics -380* vs Anthony Taylor

$50.00

$95.00

Loss

4/14/17 5:30pm Bellator Fighting 3001 Leandro Higo +190* vs Eduardo Dantas

Total profit for event $214.00 ... I'll take it .. Hope I do better tomorrow night..

Nice.

I went back to try and bet on Borics and Lena about 6 hours ago, but I was too late, lines were closed.

Dantas already faced Joe Warren, one of the best wrestlers in the division. Dantas also fights out of Nova Uniao one of the best gyms to train wrestling defense, I didn't think Higo would have anything for him in the grappling/wrestling department.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I put $25 on the over of Dantas after I saw Hugo's post... they paid me

Lol nice.

[JIBBBY]

Bovada still has the Dantas fight up and line is still moving?

I know years ago with delayed events the lines would sometimes still be up on the board after the fight finished live.. I thought the books caught on to that by now..

Perhaps Bovada fell asleep????... Hope you maxed it on Dantes Ty if that was the case.. ...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good call on Dantas Sanity!!!!.. I tried to get cute and pick a dog at +190 and failed.. I thought Dantas might get muscled on the ground.. It never went there...

Favorites cash again in Bellator anyways!!.. I did come out on top though and didn't go crazy with fading Dantas...

This is how I bet the event and these are the results....

$140.00

$100.00

Win

4/14/17 4:00pm Bellator Fighting 3302 Lena Ovchynnikova -140* vs Helen Harper

$160.00	$164.60		Win	2 Team Parlay
									Win	4/14/17 5:00pm Bellator Fighting 3101 Daniel Weichel -165* vs John Teixeira
									Win	4/14/17 4:30pm Bellator Fighting 3202 Adam Borics -380* vs Anthony Taylor

$50.00

$95.00

Loss

4/14/17 5:30pm Bellator Fighting 3001 Leandro Higo +190* vs Eduardo Dantas

Total profit for event $214.00 ... I'll take it .. Hope I do better tomorrow night..

Nice job bud. Profit is profit.

[Ty$]

I know years ago with delayed events the lines would sometimes still be up on the board after the fight finished live.. I thought the books caught on to that by now..

Perhaps Bovada fell asleep????... Hope you maxed it on Dantes Ty if that was the case.. ...

I went small assuming they'd cancel it odds were shit

[JIBBBY]

Nice.

I went back to try and bet on Borics and Lena about 6 hours ago, but I was too late, lines were closed.

Dantas already faced Joe Warren, one of the best wrestlers in the division. Dantas also fights out of Nova Uniao one of the best gyms to train wrestling defense, I didn't think Higo would have anything for him in the grappling/wrestling department.

Warren was old and worn out..

I thought since Higo missed weight and was 5 pounds heavier at weigh ins he might be huge and actually muscle Dantes against the cage and on the ground.. Higo did have his moments against the cage but that was it.. Lost by Split..

Good call Sanity, you got that right!!!!

[JIBBBY]

Nice job bud. Profit is profit.

Right on Hugo let's kill it tomorrow night!! You killed it last event and I hope your luck continues!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Right on Hugo let's kill it tomorrow night!! You killed it last event and I hope your luck continues!!

You too bud!

[RussianMike]

Nope---And I totally agree....the ref can change the game----

Always keeping refs in mind, especially fights that should go distance. Waterson could possibly get favor from refs in a tight fight as well, since it's very noticeable UFC are looking to create stars who are appealing. Just something to think about.

[JIBBBY]

Always keeping refs in mind, especially fights that should go distance. Waterson could possibly get favor from refs in a tight fight as well, since it's very noticeable UFC are looking to create stars who are appealing. Just something to think about.

Rose might be just as appealing if not more so then Karate Hottie.. It's close... Remember Rose had her segment on the UFC tonight show for fan recognition right before she fought Karolina in her last fight. Shaved her head and all for that fight....

I do agree that the refs could favor bigger name fighters in close decisions.. I think we saw that tonight in Bellator with the Daniel Weichel spit decision call. Not sure he won that fight..