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Wrong fight, my bad. Was the XFC Casey fight, not Cooper. LOL, the one where dude comments on fighting w/ cornrows. Priceless
the Still thinkComment -
Whatvabout Oliviera?
Man, is anyone else thinking about playing Oliviera against Brooks? Not super familiar with Brooks, but based off styles, I always play a flier parlay on any jiu jitsu Underdog matched up with a wrestler. Play it with the under. Guess you guys have better ways to play those with all the online props.
Still, anyone here have an opinion on Oliviera/Brooks number? Vegas has Oliviera +225 currently.Comment -
Here's how I played it so far. Oliveira is a known quitter but he can sub anyone and Brooks isn't a great earlier finisher so he should have some good opportunities to get the tap here.
Fight #9: Brooks vs. Oliveira
Oliveira (+250) 1u
Oliveira ITD (+380) 1u
Oliveira Submission (+475) .5uComment -
Right on. I'm in Vegas and pretty much just playing ML on fighters and parlaying w round totals. Somewhat similar, except it's not, but yeah I played on the same assumptions. Under your same assumptions, why not put unit or half unit on Oliveira in the 2nd and Oliverira in the 3rd? Best time to catch a wrestler for the tap, I'm sure the odds pretty good too (haven't seen em). BTW saw the Cooper Cavillo fight and now understand why Cavillo big favorite. Still playing Pearl at +225 but man Cavillo looks like she's getting stronger, and that broad, once she gets a bitch down, starts working transitions for that back like a meth-head working rooster for a rock. Her standup got stronger too, but she still throws lead jab like she's keeping too much distance, afraid of the counter.
Considering how hard she works, wasting no time, I think a play on under 2.5 at +170 might be the best bet on the card.Comment -
You don't feel like you're oversimplifying this? Jury has fought some tougher guys, sure, but then you have 1) He's been out of action for a year and a half, 2) He looked terrible, physically, in his first fight at 145, and De La Torre fights comfortably there and regularly keeps a fast pace, and has been an active fighter the past year and a half.Comment -
Give me Burgos FTW. Rosa's standup is whack and Burgos is gonna counter over the top of his kicks and crack him again and again. When Rosa looks for takedowns, Burgos will stuff them and get back to work. I wish the line was closer, but Burgos is a winner here.Comment -
Was a little agnostic on Mousasi/Weidman but then got to thinking about the King Mo / Mousasi fight. I fail to believe Mo has better TDs/grappling than Weidman. I think the size/strength difference between Mo and Weidman, if any, is negligible. Why is Mousasi the favorite here in a 15 minute scrap?Comment -
Usman should win but the line is screaming Strickland Plus $$$$...thoughts? He is no easy out to lay -350Comment -
Simple works for me Shagster.. Remember it's just a fight..
You start over analyzing and you can miss the obvious.. I like Jury in this fight, Jury has the advantage on the ground I believe the advantage standing.. I can see Jury landing a Submission late in the fight maybe, De La Torre has a pretty good chin so not convinced Jury can drop him but maybe he can...... De La Torre was sub'd out in his last fight RNC anyways..
De La Torre is win one lose one in recent fights and it's not like he's fighting top 10 guys either.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mike-de-la-Torre-17915
12 of Jury 15 wins have come ITD also.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Myles-Jury-34236
These are the trends and numbers and they don't lie...Comment -
Disagree that DLT has a good chin. On the under here at (+165)Comment -
Could be a dog play, I'm not sold on Usman in this scrap myself.... Strickland has twice as many pro fights on his resume and only 1 loss on his record (decision loss).. Chance Strickland could get the KO or SUB late in this fight maybe.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sean-Strickland-30452
UFC 210 - Welterweight 3 rounds - KeyBank Center - Buffalo, New York - FS1Usman could put Strickland on his back round after round and work his way to a decision win though..Sat 4/8 1601 Sean Strickland +290 o2½ -255 9:00PM 1602 Kamaru Usman -350 u2½ +215
The odds makers sure are thinking this based on the odds for this prop anyways..
1611 Usman wins by 3 round decision -140 Comment -
very difficult to say Mo brings something to the table Weidman can't - especially after his performances as of late. He made it look too easy against Mousasi / Mousasi has not been up against anybody with the TD ability of Weidman.
I think Weidman times a few shots perfectly and is able to stifle Gegard on the ground en route to a decision. Love Mousasi and how he's a killer w/ ice water in his veins but that also comes out as a lack of sense of urgency. Did nothing against Mo in 25 min, not sure what I expected vs Machida, should have put Jardine away. Weidman is a bad matchup for himComment -
really like Cote over Alves at -155Comment -
Word on the street
Any chance anyone here know what's up w Cormier camp and/or how he's mixing that in with his FOX commitments? Been a while since he's fought, and being 40 myself I understand how easily complacency breeds lethargy at that age.Comment -
This looks like a very profitable card, guys!Comment -
Trying to picture this match up?.. Cote probably is the call I agree if he isn't washed up and flabby looking now.. He looked soft in his last fight and got dropped.. I'm waiting til weigh ins to see what Cote looks like..
Patrick is 37 years old now and no spring chicken..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Patrick-Cote-6612
Alves still 33 and battle tested himself.. Always a tough out.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Thiago-Alves-5998
UFC 210 - Welterweight 3 rounds - KeyBank Center - Buffalo, New York - PPVSat 4/8 1301 Thiago Alves +135 o2½ -200 10:30PM 1302 Patrick Cote -155 u2½ +170
If Cote looks in shape at weigh ins I'm leaning him by decision...
1311 Cote wins by 3 round decision +191 Comment -
Part 2 -MMA Mania prelims PART 1 -
155 lbs.: Gregor Gillespie vs. Andrew Holbrook
A highly touted wrestling standout, Gregor Gillespie (8-0) took a sizable step up in his UFC debut opposite The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” 4 winner Glaico Franca. Despite this, he managed to overpower the Brazilian in hostile territory and take home a unanimous decision.
He will give up two inches of height to the 5’11” Andrew Holbrook (12-1).
Holbrook got off to a bumpy start in the world’s largest MMA promotion, controversially edging Ramsey Nijem before suffering a 34-second knockout loss to Joaquim Silva. Undaunted, he defied four-to-one odds to win a decision over Australia’s Jake Matthews in Melbourne.
Nine of his 10 stoppage wins have come by submission.
I honestly believed Gillespie was in over his head against Franca, but he pulled out a good win against a very capable Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist. Though Holbrook lacks Franca’s cardio issues, his relative lack of physicality may cost him dearly.
Gillespie goes to the ground where and how he decides to; as good as Holbrook’s scrambling is, it likely isn’t enough to either bring Gillespie down or keep him there should “The Gift” elect not to engage. Expect Gillespie to control the temp on his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Gillespie via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Josh Emmett vs. Des Green
Josh Emmett (11-0), a regional champion, turned heads in his debut when he out-dueled veteran Jon Tuck, surviving a gruesome finger injury to do so. Seven months later, he faced another stiff test in Scott Holtzman and passed with a unanimous decision.
Three of his five stoppage wins have come by knockout, including one over UFC veteran Christos Giagos.
Though he fell short against Daniel Weichel in a Bellator tournament final, Des Green (19-5) proved his mettle by winning the Titan FC Featherweight title two fights later. He lost the title to Kurt Holobaugh and dropped a decision to Andre Harrison in his next title challenge, but enters UFC having won four straight.
He stands two inches taller than Emmett at 5’10.”
This is another of those frustrating fights that boil down to takedown offense vs. takedown defense. Though Green isn’t a slouch on the feet, he is a wrestler first and foremost, not quite savvy enough to handle Emmett’s high-speed boxing offense. By the same token, Emmett won’t be a factor off of his back should Green put him there.
My gut says Emmett. Team Alpha Male tends to produce elite takedown defense and Green can be overpowered if he can’t get comfortable in top position. Green faded badly in his last bout and Emmett presents the same sort of scrambling prowess that drained him. Emmett steadily takes over, landing enough power punches to take the decision.
Prediction: Emmett via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Irene Aldana
Katlyn Chookagian (8-1), the CFFC Flyweight and Bantamweight champion, followed up a 45-second knockout of Stephanie Bragayrac with an upset decision over Lauren Murphy in her Octagon debut.
Two of her three professional finishes have come in the first round.
Irene Aldana’s (7-3) seven first-round finishes carried her into her Octagon debut against Leslie Smith as a sizable favorite, the third-largest on the UFC on FOX 22 card. Despite the hype, she struggled with her opponent’s pressure and power en route to a unanimous decision loss.
Five of those seven stoppages have come by knockout.
I’ve still got high hopes for Aldana’s future — she packs serious power for the division and, when given room to operate, can put together some downright scary combinations. Chookagian is effective and well-rounded, but I’m not sure she can handle the firepower discrepancy.
Though Aldana’s ground game and issues with pressure fighters remain cause for concern, Chookagian simply isn’t well-equipped to exploit those difficulties. Aldana overpowers her on the feet for an early finish.
Prediction: Aldana via first-round technical knockout
125 lbs.: Jenel Lausa vs. Magomed Bibulatov
Jenel Lausa (7-2), a former professional boxer who amassed an undefeated (7-0) record in his native Philippines, picked up the PXF Flyweight title to cap off a four-fight win streak and earn a crack in UFC. He debuted in Dec. 2016, out-slugging Zhikui Yao to take home a unanimous decision Melbourne.
“Demolition Man” has knocked out and submitted two opponents apiece.
After cutting his teeth in Europe, Magomed Bibulatov (13-0) dominated Donavon Frelow in his WSOF debut to win the promotion’s vacant flyweight title. He promptly dropped it and returned to Russia, where he dispatched three more opponents in 2016. He owns wins over UFC veteran Taylor Lapilus, TUF: “Brazil” 4 competitor Giovanni “Soldado,” and current Akhmat Fight Show Bantamweight Champion Said Nurmagomedov.
I’m pulling for Lausa, but this is Bibulatov’s fight to lose. Though Lausa’s overall wrestling game is better than one would expect out of a converted boxer, Bibulatov’s world-class takedown ability far outstrips the Filipino’s ability to handle it. Bibulatov is also no slouch on the feet, packing solid hands and an impressive kicking arsenal.
Bibulatov has all the tools to be an elite Flyweight — if he’s given the opportunities to get there, he could easily fight Demetrious Johnson by the middle of next year. He dominates Lausa with relentless takedowns, eventually locking up a submission.
Prediction: Bibulatov via second-round submission
145 lbs.: Myles Jury vs. Mike De La Torre
Myles Jury (15-2) — whose run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15 ended early with a split decision loss to Al Iaquinta, opened his UFC career with six consecutive victories. A loss to Donald Cerrone sent “Fury” down to Featherweight, where an overweight Charles Oliveira tapped him with a guillotine.
This will be his first fight in nearly 16 months.
The first two UFC bouts for Mike De La Torre (14-6) saw him give Mark Bocek a stiff challenge despite +500 odds and then suffer a 99-second submission loss to Brian Ortega that a failed drug test later overturned. He has since alternated wins and losses, most recently tapping to a Godofredo “Pepey” rear-naked choke in Brazil.
His 12 stoppage wins include six knockouts and six submissions.
Though Jury is not the ferocious finisher his pre-UFC record suggests, he’s well-rounded enough to pose a significant threat to chunks of the 145-pound division. De La Torre, unfortunately, is among those chunks, hard-headed and hard-nosed, but without the focus to overpower Jury in any area.
“Fury” has a mean right hand and a quality wrestling game to back up the Brazilian jiu-jitsu that forms the core of his game. One or the other will put De La Torre on the mat, where Jury will lock up the finish before long.
Prediction: Jury via first-round submission
170 lbs.: Kamaru Usmanvs. Sean Strickland
Kamaru Usman (9-1) opened and closed the show for the Blackzilians on TUF 21, defeating Michael Graves in the first episode and choking out Hayder Hassan at the Finale. Though he’s yet to secure a second UFC finish, he has looked dominant against the likes of Leon Edwards and Warlley Alves in his recent fights.
Five of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Sean Strickland (18-1) earned some quick hype in UFC with a submission over Bubba McDaniel in his Octagon debut, only for a controversial decision Luke Barnatt and a loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio to drain his momentum. He bounced back with a three-fight win streak, most recently edging Tom Breese at UFC 199.
He stands an inch taller than Usman at 6’1.”
I can’t imagine how frustrating it would be to be a big fan of Strickland. He’s enormous for the division, a strong wrestler, and a capable boxer with absolutely zero sense of urgency. He could easily be 3-3 in UFC and that’s almost entirely due to how passive he is.
Usman is every bit his physical equal and has the sort of suffocating pressure game that’s vexed “Tarzan” in the past. Strickland has a chance if he comes out slinging right hands, but the more likely outcome is that Usman drowns him in volume punching and takedown attempts, landing enough to take a clear decision.
Prediction: Usman via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Shane Burgos vs. Charles Rosa
Shane Burgos (8-0) — with seven finishes under his belt — stepped up on short notice against Brazilian slugger Tiago “Trator” in Albany when Zubaira Tukhugov failed a drug test. Burgos’ superior power carried the day as he out-slugged his foe for a career-first decision win.
At 5’11”, “Hurricane” is two inches taller than Rosa.
Charles Rosa (11-2) jumped right into the deep end in his UFC debut, a late-notice bout with Dennis Siver in Stockholm. He has since won two of three, losing to Yair Rodriguez between wins over Sean Soriano and Kyle Bochniak.
This will be the first fight for “Boston Strong” since beating Bochniak in Boston two Januarys ago.
Oh, this should be fun. Both of these guys are relentless, proven finishers with plenty of moxie. Though Rosa could certainly surprise me, I’m leaning towards Burgos.
“Hurricane” figures to be the far stronger fighter on the feet, where Rosa isn’t terribly difficult to hit. Further, his physical strength and grappling ability ought to keep him afloat even if Rosa does manage to bring him down early. There’s also the layoff to consider, which could prove costly considering Rosa’s customary pace.
Burgos’ hands-down style may bite him in the rear before long, but it won’t on Saturday. He sprawls-and-brawls to a dominant victory.
Prediction: Burgos via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Patrick Cummins vs. Jan Blachowicz
Patrick Cummins (8-4) put the memory of his debut loss to Daniel Cormier behind him with three straight wins, including one over touted TUF: “Brazil” winner Antonio “Cara de Sapato.” He has since struggled to regain that form, suffering knockout losses in three of his last four fights.
He owns four wins by (technical) knockout, two of them in UFC.
Jan Blachowicz (19-6) started strong in UFC with a body kick knockout of Ilir Latifi that extended his win streak to six. Like Cummins, however, he enters this bout on a 1-3 stretch, though all of his losses came by decision.
He will have a two-inch reach advantage on fight night.
I’ll admit that my assessments of Cummins have been inaccurate before. The man simply does not have the durability to survive the top of the division; sure, all four guys who have put him away have a history of stunning knockouts, but he should be able to take punches from a fossilized Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
Or at the very least not get hit by him.
Luckily for “Durkin,” Blachowicz is every bit the underachiever. Despite his striking background, he has just one (technical) knockout finish since 2010 and his wrestling remains underdeveloped. Barring a Hell of a surprise, expect Cummins to ground him early and pound away for the full 15 minutes.
Prediction: Cummins via unanimous decision
Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record for 2017: 36-16Comment -
Man, I really think "Ill' Will takes this scrap rather easily. He'll be able to dictate where the fight plays out, I think the only way he loses here is if he gets caught in a choke on a scramble, but I just don't see it happening. I'm going Brooks by wide decision or late TKO stoppage.Comment -
I like Cormier, Mousassi, Cote, Jury and Usman.
Cormier will ragdoll Rumble again assuming he doesn't get KO'd early on.
Mousassi has greatly improved the past few years and I think he gets it done against a fragile minded Weidman. Those of you that are looking at the fight he lost to King Mo are wasting your time, he is a completely different fighter now. Weidman on the other hand has been exposed and with 2 straight ugly losses, I see Moose's hand raised in this one.Comment -
I really dont get,why Cormier is the underdog in this fight,he should be in my eyes a 2-1 favorite! And why people here think Rumble can ko him?? Cormier took his Best punches and he wasnt even hurt!! Rumbles only chance is a miracle punch and That wont happend,and for this time Cormier will have a better plan to avoid being ko,Cormier and the Over is a gift,may throw something to the fight going the distance.Comment -
Well it's hard to beat a fighter twice at this level and DC isn't getting any younger at age 38 now..
I agree though DC should be a 2-1 favorite.. I also don't see how Rumble can beat DC unless he lands a clean bomb standing before he gasses out and gets grounded....http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-odds-analysisComment -
Cormiers inactivity has to be taken into consideration along with his injuries. I had multiple big plays on Cormier in the first fight, see it different this time around tho. Personally think Cormier has lost an edge of some sorts, commitments to the broadcasting team, age and inactivity all counting against him. Going with Rumble this time around.Comment -
Until I see DC get dropped and lose a fight other then to Jon Jones by decision I gotta roll with DC.. Dude is a tough out to go along with his Olympic Caliber wrestling..
Rumble doesn't have the wrestling or gas tank to beat DC I believe if he doesn't land something big early on... Bottom line..
DC is smart and will tie him up if he gets rocked early on also..
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Cormier pretty much has the blueprint to beat Rumble and the perfect style for it. Rewatching tape, Rumble gasses pretty much 3 minutes into the first round. At that point, wasn't even from swinging much, just wearing DC weight against the fence for about a minute, at which point he stops even attempting to get up or get his head out and begins conserving energy. Bet. Even if Rumble fights bit reserved 2nd fight, better be some long ass odds for fight going distance to even consider. Can't see it going past the 4th.
But nevertheless, Rumble KO in 1st always in play, and BTW, by now, calling any KO by Rumble a "miracle" just sounds retarded doesn't it?Comment
