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I like this event.. I think there is some money to be made.. Gonna start capping this tomorrow
... Report back to this thread shortly..
I am liking Derek Brunson at those odds so far.. Slight chance he could get knocked out by Whittaker but I doubt it.. Had to jump on the -125 odds now before it slips further..
Brunson is on a solid 5 fight winning streak.. I think he takes this fight. Derek has been knocking people out in the 1st round like it's nothing lately.. I'm not convinced he's gonna drop Whittaker in the first but I wouldn't be surprised if he does.. Wonderboy knocked out Whittaker in the first round.. I may try the Brunson KO prop when it comes out anyways....
..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Derek-Brunson-68494
$250.00 $200.00 Pending 11/26/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Derek Brunson -125* vs Robert Whittaker
Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-22-16, 05:08 PM.Comment -
Main event underdogs are due for a win. I'll bet Whittaker to win this fight.Comment -
I don't know who half of the names on the card are.
Might skip this one.Comment -
So you're betting on Whittaker just because the dogs haven't hit lately in the main events? Am I understanding this correctly? That's no way to cap fights Gunny, perhaps you should look at the fighters and not the main event win and lose trends as that seems a bit more factual when capping fights...
GL with that anyways if you do.. It is a fight and yes at this level anything is possible..Comment -
Sounds like a "regression toward the mean" betting angle. Not for me either...Comment -
Wonder if Roundtree cleaned up his takedown defense yet? If so he should starch that Aussie pretty easily.Comment -
UFC Fight Night 101 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Rod Laver Arena - Melbourne, Australia - FS1Sat 11/26 1101 Andrew Holbrook +230 o1½ -185 11:59PM 1102 Jake Matthews -270 u1½ +160
I usually don't post prop ideas prior to figuring them out completely but I'm bored and already starting to cap this event.. Why not share ideas on SBR I say.....
Clear signs so far in this match up -
Mathews ITD, hedge Holbrook by submission when the props come out for me is what I see so far... I'll explain my initial thoughts on hard based stats and trends.. I do know both fighters and their fighting styles just for the record also..
Mathews only went to decision 1 time in his entire career and is coming off a KO loss to the beast Kevin Lee. Mathews has been sub'd one time also in the UFC....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jake-Matthews-122139
Flip -
Holbrook also only went to decision 1 time in his entire MMA career and is also coming off a KO loss as a first... 9 wins by submission.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrew-Holbrook-78384
So the question is - which fighter responds better after a loss? Mathews has already proved he can respond already, but Holbrook hasn't yet.. So any one straight play on either fighter should be a concern..
Mathews ITD, hedge Holbrook by submission for me seems to be the most logical play..
This is how I begin to cap fights fellas.. Determine whether to hedge or not.. That is the secret to my prop play in most fights.. Break down records and current trends first and see the recent trends IN THE UFC.. Finally check prop odds and watch last fight videos again for style match up comparisons..
Not rocket science just takes time and effort... Thought to share.. This is what it takes to win in this sport.. If I get lazy I lose, if I don't I win.. Just that simple..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-23-16, 06:29 PM.Comment -
Not decision ONLY submission as that was a typo I edited already.. Remember both fighters only went to decision one time in their MMA careers.. So any chance of this fight going to decision is HIGHLY unlikely...
Thanks for pointing that out Hugo.. I'll be leaning harder on Mathews ITD on the hedge play...Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-22-16, 10:48 PM.Comment -
Ever since the UFC started the USADA Drug Testing crackdown since last year underdogs have been winning more main events. Looking back on BestFightOdds to make sure. Maybe it's just a coincidence. The math has always backed up parity.
^PaperTrail07 read this. I never said I blindly bet that way.Last edited by GunShard; 11-23-16, 11:08 PM.Comment -
I'm taking Brunson, think it's good value at -140. I think he could make a run to the title. He quickly KOed Hall, whereas Whittaker beat Hall in a competitive decision. Whittaker had trouble with Natal, who I'm sure Brunson would also KO like Boetsch just did. Whittaker has a few KOs but it's up against not very good competition. Brunson KOed Alvey on the feet which isn't an easy task. And Brunson can always fall back on his wrestling and outmuscle Whittaker if he's losing in the standup. Whittaker used to be welterweight, and Brunson is a big, strong Middleweight. But, Brunson seems to be the one that the public expects to win, I'm always suspicious of that, so maybe Whittaker is the dog that will win.Comment -
Maybe there is something to event trends for dog play.. Gun I'm sorry for calling you out on that.. I do remember you used this theory in a past event and won big.. Left me scratching my head but you were right..
I've just always been a believer in fighter trends over main event trends... If it works for you then cash it and laugh all the way to the bank buddy!!!
I never took this trend into consideration and maybe I should...
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Maybe there is something to event trends for dog play.. Gun I'm sorry for calling you out on that.. I do remember you used this theory in a past event and won big.. Left me scratching my head but you were right..
I've just always been a believer in fighter trends over main event trends... If it works for you then cash it and laugh all the way to the bank buddy!!! I never took this trend into consideration and maybe I should...
It's important to cap the fighter but also important to be aware of line trends. Know when to fade the public.
Well in any sports, I never seen a favorite win 100 times in a row and an underdog win 100 times in a row.
When favorites or underdogs wins too much, parity is due. This is obvious.
For everyone else, I have a public sports betting record of 80% wins on MMA: https://gunshard.blogabet.com
I won 12 of my last 13 NFL bets:
You cannot fake your records on Blogabet and Wagerminds or they will suspend you. I am proving my handicapping skills based on fading the public and using the math to my advantage. I encourage everyone to do the same.Last edited by GunShard; 11-24-16, 02:50 AM.Comment -
I'll play the Reaper in his hometown, ya'll nuts.
When Whittaker comes out to Roy Jones Jr. you'll know.
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A lot of "experts" think Whittaker is going to win this. Interesting. They keep mentioning that Brunson keeps his chin up high and is susceptible to getting caught by a high level striker like Whittaker. I don't see it. I think Brunson is too quick to get caught by Whittaker. But I am a little hesistant to put a bet down on Brunson since I have lost money betting on the fan favorite before.Comment -
MMA MANIA PART 1...
115 lbs.: Seo Hee Ham vs. Danielle Taylor
Seo Hee Ham (16-7) saw her six-fight win streak go up in smoke at the hands and knees of Joanne Calderwood in her Octagon debut, but showed her mettle in a gritty decision over Cortney Casey her next time out. This past March, "Hamderlei Silva" fought Bec Rawlings in hostile territory wound up losing a contentious decision.
She stands two inches taller than the 5’0" Danielle Taylor (7-2).
"Dynamite," having avenged her sole career loss in her previous bout, stepped in for Justine Kish against Maryna Moroz last August. Faced with a seven-inch height disadvantage, she struggled to generate consistent offense and ultimately lost a split decision.
She was originally supposed to face Ham at the ill-fated Fight Night 97 in Manila, Philippines.
Ham’s greatest issue is her lack of size -- she’s a natural Atomweight who appeared utterly dwarfed by the likes of Casey and Rawlings. With a rare height advantage against Taylor, I expect her to be far more successful. Though Taylor has fought at Flyweight before, she’s much less experienced as a professional and her stature should give her issues against Ham’s pressure.
Taylor didn’t show much besides a decent right hand against Moroz and Ham -- whose sole (technical) knockout loss was a stoppage between rounds in 2011 -- ought to be able to take that and keep going. She’s simply too proven and too relentless for Taylor, taking an entertaining three-round decision.
Prediction: Ham via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Tyson Pedro vs. Khalil Rountree
Fighting out of the same camp as Heavyweight prospect and fellow UFC signee Tai Tuivasa, Tyson Pedro (4-0) debuted in 2013 with a 31-second knockout. He returned to the cage this past March and has won three straight, all by first-round submission.
He stands two inches taller than Khalil Rountree (4-1) at 6’3."
Rountree brought some hype into his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, where he became Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s second Light Heavyweight pick. Though he lost to Cory Hendricks in the quarterfinals, Hendricks’ neck injury allowed him to return and ultimately reach the finals, losing via decision to Andrew Sanchez of Team Claudia Gadelha.
Two of his professional wins have come by first-round knockout.
There are several variables here. Pedro’s very big and physically strong, but doesn’t share Rountree’s amateur experience and has yet to leave the first round. Rountree, meanwhile, is the better striker, but has struggled with wrestling bigger men, possibly because of spending most of his career at Middleweight.
The key intangibles may be their respective surroundings. Rountree has trained with the likes of Anderson Silva and Wanderlei Silva and operates out of Syndicate MMA, while Pedro’s most notable associates are James Te Huna and the aforementioned Tuivasa. Rountree has the people around him to correct the issues he showed during TUF and is more proven in the cage; therefore, expect him to have some trouble early, but take over once he drags Pedro into uncharted waters.
Prediction: Rountree via second-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Marlon Vera vs. Ning Guangyou
This is the third time these two have been booked to fight. I’m just going to copy-paste what I wrote for the first one if it’s all the same.
Marlon Vera's (9-3-1) upkick knockout produced one of the best highlights on TUF: "Latin America," although a skin infection sadly cut his run short. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist has gone 1-2 in UFC proper, earning a "Performance of the Night" bonus for his submission of Roman Salazar.
He is three inches taller than Ning Guangyou (5-3) at 5’8."
"Smasher" scored two impressive knockouts on TUF: "China" before dispatching Yang Gianping in Macau. A knockout of Royston Wee followed, after which he dropped to Bantamweight and lost an uneventful split decision to Marco Antonio Beltran.
Three of his five wins have come by knockout.
Vera simply hasn’t shown the level of wrestling a jiu-jitsu specialist needs to excel in UFC. Attacking from his guard worked against Roman Salazar, but he had few answers for Davey Grant’s takedown game. Though Ning is fairly raw, he’s an excellent wrestler out of a great camp in Tiger Muay Thai, giving him the edge in the stylistic match up.
Ning’s power makes him the bigger threat on the feet and I’m not convinced Vera can put him on his back. If he can avoid the passivity that screwed him against Marco Beltran and allowed a woefully outclassed Royston Wee to last two rounds, I expect TUF winner to earn the victory.
Prediction: Ning via second-round knockoutComment -
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I disagree with Jason Knight. Knight is a rubber guard specialist who has NOTHING to fall back on. Hooker is a tough well rounded fighter who is easily the better striker because Knight is clueless and Knight won't be able to get this fight to the ground. Even if he does, Hooker isn't bad on the ground by any stretch. Hooker is probably one of my favorite plays on the card outside of Kyle Noke. 2 BAD fighters and I get Kyle Noke at home at +150?Comment -
Tuck and Meunier look like decent favorites as well. Damien Brown can be aggressive on the feet at times but he's mostly just a wrestler. Tuck should be able to pick him apart on the feet in this one if he can stay upright. Meunier is a virtual unknown. He fought a couple decent guys on the regional scene and finished them but it was Canada. Only UFC fight was short notice against Covington where he predictably got grapple fooked. My only reason for being high on him is that IF he's UFC caliber, he'll get the win over Richard Walsh. Walsh has zero technique on the feet or on the ground and gets by on being stronger than his opponents and clinching against the cage and such, plus he's a tough guy that never quits. He isn't really UFC caliber but gets by on being a warrior.Comment -
MMA MANIA PART 1...
115 lbs.: Seo Hee Ham vs. Danielle Taylor
Seo Hee Ham (16-7) saw her six-fight win streak go up in smoke at the hands and knees of Joanne Calderwood in her Octagon debut, but showed her mettle in a gritty decision over Cortney Casey her next time out. This past March, "Hamderlei Silva" fought Bec Rawlings in hostile territory wound up losing a contentious decision.
She stands two inches taller than the 5’0" Danielle Taylor (7-2).
"Dynamite," having avenged her sole career loss in her previous bout, stepped in for Justine Kish against Maryna Moroz last August. Faced with a seven-inch height disadvantage, she struggled to generate consistent offense and ultimately lost a split decision.
She was originally supposed to face Ham at the ill-fated Fight Night 97 in Manila, Philippines.
Ham’s greatest issue is her lack of size -- she’s a natural Atomweight who appeared utterly dwarfed by the likes of Casey and Rawlings. With a rare height advantage against Taylor, I expect her to be far more successful. Though Taylor has fought at Flyweight before, she’s much less experienced as a professional and her stature should give her issues against Ham’s pressure.
Taylor didn’t show much besides a decent right hand against Moroz and Ham -- whose sole (technical) knockout loss was a stoppage between rounds in 2011 -- ought to be able to take that and keep going. She’s simply too proven and too relentless for Taylor, taking an entertaining three-round decision.
Prediction: Ham via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Tyson Pedro vs. Khalil Rountree
Fighting out of the same camp as Heavyweight prospect and fellow UFC signee Tai Tuivasa, Tyson Pedro (4-0) debuted in 2013 with a 31-second knockout. He returned to the cage this past March and has won three straight, all by first-round submission.
He stands two inches taller than Khalil Rountree (4-1) at 6’3."
Rountree brought some hype into his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, where he became Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s second Light Heavyweight pick. Though he lost to Cory Hendricks in the quarterfinals, Hendricks’ neck injury allowed him to return and ultimately reach the finals, losing via decision to Andrew Sanchez of Team Claudia Gadelha.
Two of his professional wins have come by first-round knockout.
There are several variables here. Pedro’s very big and physically strong, but doesn’t share Rountree’s amateur experience and has yet to leave the first round. Rountree, meanwhile, is the better striker, but has struggled with wrestling bigger men, possibly because of spending most of his career at Middleweight.
The key intangibles may be their respective surroundings. Rountree has trained with the likes of Anderson Silva and Wanderlei Silva and operates out of Syndicate MMA, while Pedro’s most notable associates are James Te Huna and the aforementioned Tuivasa. Rountree has the people around him to correct the issues he showed during TUF and is more proven in the cage; therefore, expect him to have some trouble early, but take over once he drags Pedro into uncharted waters.
Prediction: Rountree via second-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Marlon Vera vs. Ning Guangyou
This is the third time these two have been booked to fight. I’m just going to copy-paste what I wrote for the first one if it’s all the same.
Marlon Vera's (9-3-1) upkick knockout produced one of the best highlights on TUF: "Latin America," although a skin infection sadly cut his run short. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist has gone 1-2 in UFC proper, earning a "Performance of the Night" bonus for his submission of Roman Salazar.
He is three inches taller than Ning Guangyou (5-3) at 5’8."
"Smasher" scored two impressive knockouts on TUF: "China" before dispatching Yang Gianping in Macau. A knockout of Royston Wee followed, after which he dropped to Bantamweight and lost an uneventful split decision to Marco Antonio Beltran.
Three of his five wins have come by knockout.
Vera simply hasn’t shown the level of wrestling a jiu-jitsu specialist needs to excel in UFC. Attacking from his guard worked against Roman Salazar, but he had few answers for Davey Grant’s takedown game. Though Ning is fairly raw, he’s an excellent wrestler out of a great camp in Tiger Muay Thai, giving him the edge in the stylistic match up.
Ning’s power makes him the bigger threat on the feet and I’m not convinced Vera can put him on his back. If he can avoid the passivity that screwed him against Marco Beltran and allowed a woefully outclassed Royston Wee to last two rounds, I expect TUF winner to earn the victory.
Prediction: Ning via second-round knockout
PART 2 -
170 lbs.: Richard Walsh vs. Jonathan Meunier
Richard Walsh (9-4), representing Australia, reached the semifinals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Nations" before falling to Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He has gone 2-3 in UFC proper, including a close decision loss to Viscardi Andrade last time out.
He will give up three inches of height to Jonathan Meunier (7-1).
Meunier entered UFC with two regional title under his belt and less than a month’s layoff since his previous bout. He did not manage to keep that momentum going in his late-notice debut, which saw him succumb to Colby Covington’s suffocating wrestling.
He has stopped all seven of his victims, six of them in the first round.
Walsh is honestly better than his record suggests. He deserved the win over Kiichi Kunimoto and he had Andrade dead to rights before getting taken down. He’s kind of a diet Zak Cummings, relying on physical pressure and decent power to overwhelm opponents.
Meunier may not have the firepower to put him away and, if the Covington fight is any indication, probably won’t enjoy the kind of pressure "Filthy Rich" exerts. I’m not saying Walsh is anywhere near Covington’s level, but he’s a stylistic hazard with home-field advantage. He rumbles past Meunier with steady volume striking and clinchwork.
Prediction: Walsh via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Ben Nguyen vs. Geane Herrera
Ben Nguyen (15-6) parlayed his viral fame into a UFC call up, which he took full advantage of with first-round finishes of Alptekin Ozkilic and Ryan Benoit. "Ben 10" last fought in July, losing to but putting on a terrific fight with Louis Smolka.
Eight of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Geane Herrera (9-2) came up short in his Octagon debut opposite top prospect Ray Borg, but rebounded with an impressive knockout of Joby Sanchez. He welcomed Ali Bagautinov back to the Octagon in June and gave the former title challenger a quality challenge in defeat.
He has submitted five opponents in the first round.
This is easily "Fight of the Night" material. Nguyen is pure excitement in the cage and Herrera is durable and well-conditioned enough to give him plenty of hell. Despite fading against the relentless pressure of Smolka, I’m leaning toward Nguyen, whom I have underestimated before and whose power is a terrific equalizer.
Herrera just doesn’t have the same level of suffocating grappling that Smolka does and, on the feet, appears sorely out-gunned. Nguyen sprawls-and-brawls his way to a technical knockout finish sometime in the first.
Prediction: Nguyen via first-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: Daniel Hooker vs. Jason Knight
Daniel Hooker (13-6) opened his UFC career by savaging Ian Entwistle with elbows to extend his win streak to six. He has been even (2-2) since, picking up impressive stoppages of Hatsu Hioki and Mark Eddiva along the way.
His 12 finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Jason Knight (15-2) punched his ticked to UFC with an upset submission of top prospect Musa Khamanaev, but could not replicate the feat against Tatsuya Kawajiri's legendary top game. Undaunted, he battled English grappling ace Jim Alers in July, winning both "Fight of the Night" and the ensuing split decision.
He is two inches shorter than Hooker at 5’10."
While Hooker is inordinately tough, Knight impressed me quite a bit against "The Beast," demonstrating striking and wrestling that I honestly didn’t expect out of a guard specialist. He should be able to keep up with Hooker on the feet and, should he elect to take it south, I’m not convinced "The Hangman" has the defensive wrestling or Brazilian jiu-jitsu prowess to survive.
At just 24-years-old, Knight has the potential to be a very interesting factor at Featherweight in the future. He slugs it out with Hooker for a bit before taking him down and locking up something weird.
Prediction: Knight via first-round submission
125 lbs.: Yao Zhikui vs. Jenel Lausa
Competing at Featherweight on TUF: "China," Yao Zhikui (2-3) knocked out Allen Chong before losing a decision to Yang Jianping in the semifinals. He is 1-2 in UFC proper, opening with a controversial loss to Royston Wee and most recently suffering a grievous arm injury against Fredy Serrano.
He and enel Lausa (6-2) were originally set to fight on the ill-fated Manila card.
After opening his MMA career 2-2, Lausa racked up four straight wins under the well-regarded PXC promotion. In his last fight, he defeated Crisanto Pitpitunge for the vacant flyweight title and has since won two boxing matches. In addition to his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) record, Lausa is undefeated (7-0) as a professional boxer with four knockouts and a minor Filipino title.
Lausa actually looked pretty solid in the footage I saw. He’s not quite as crisp and disciplined as one might expect considering the boxing background, but he hits hard, picks his shots well, and has solid takedown defense and defensive grappling to back it up. Zhikui’s an excellent first opponent, a game scrapper with power of his own who could make for a great fight.
Zhikui’s willingness to trade may be his undoing. Lausa’s more disciplined and possibly more powerful on the feet and can wrestle if needed. Zhikui’s better than his professional record suggests, but Lausa’s got more upside. He out-boxes Zhikui on his way to a fun decision win.
Prediction: Lausa via unanimous decisionComment -
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may play the under here, dont love brunsons striking defense.... whittaker much more technical but not as explosive, if he can survive the first round and stop some of the clinch/ takedowns i could see him getting the KO here should be a barnburner of a fight though
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Off topic.. DC just got injured and is out..
.. I thought this would be easy money... Should get the refund any minute now on this..
$280.00 $200.00 Pending 12/10/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Daniel Cormier -140* vs Anthony Johnson Comment -
That is my opinion too. The not going the distance prop is only like -210. Seems too easy....Comment -
Smh bought tickets to this card last night just my luckComment
