UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs. Thompson (February 06, 2016)

[JoshKnows46]

I like wonderboy but I think he gets starched in this one, hes been hit a few times and if that happens here I think he gets KO'd. Hendricks looks in shape wants that belt back bad.

Very possible, but ko is his only shot in this one, if your on wonderboy, hendrix by ko is a must hedge at plus 450. He can't win a dec against wonderboy, hendrix is good about jumping on guys when they get hurt, someone will be sleeping before the end of the 3rd, based on how I see the fight playing out mostly on the feet, hendrix confidents in his chin and striking will be his downfall in this one.

[JIBBBY]

JH hasn't had a KO in 4 years and Wonderboy had never been put to sleep.. Sketchy bet IMO Josh even as a hedge.. Percentages and numbers don't add up. I know it's about match ups but still...

I'm thinking decision myself for Wonderboy and maybe by split... Maybe JH if he wrestles his asss off and or there's a judging robbery...

Neither of these guys are getting knocked out cold I believe.. Too much at stake and on the line.. Both solid fighters that don't get finished.. Just keeping it simple...

[JC2008]

He can't win a dec against wonderboy

- Yes he can...

[Sanity Check]

I didn't realize Josh Burkman vs KJ Noons was scheduled for the 155 lb division.

I'm slippin.

Burkman should still win but his gas tank is in question. Cutting down to 155 from 170 might not do him any favors in the cardio department.

Too late to make adjustments, now. I'm committed to Burkman ML. lol

[Sanity Check]

Johnny Hendricks woke up at 169.8 pounds this morning according to himself at UFC open workouts. Johny gonna Johny in this one boys

Johny Hendricks put on a lot of muscle, kind of like Jon Jones did recently.

One common response to that is: "tacking all that muscle on will make it tougher to make weight!"

But, according to some nutritionists and weight cutting experts, its actually easier to make weight the more muscle someone has due to muscle retaining a higher quantity of water than fat.

[Sanity Check]

Why is it that people assume Thompson's cardio is better than Johny's? Thompson will gas quicker than Hendricks when the grappling starts. Sorry Josh, this is the one where I draw the line. I'm with you on literally everything else, but -210 is a gift

In the past, Johny Hendricks is known for obeying his hunger/thirst too much for his own good. Inbetween fights he's legendary for ballooning up to 220-230(?) lbs, iirc. Cutting all that weight down to 170 is the reason Hendricks got tired in his 5 round fights with Robbie Lawler and faded late. People have a tendency to expect history to repeat itself. It makes sense to fight Hendricks 5 rounds where he might gas late, rather than 3 rounds where Hendricks gas tank and eating habits won't be as much of an issue.

[Sanity Check]

Michael Bisping stop stealing my thoughts on the show..... Bastard!!!

Got JoeJitsu?

1331 Benavidez wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_84" size="4"> +460

I think he calls that move...

The Joe a Constrictor.

[Unwritten Law]

Noad Lahat
Sean Spencer
KJ Noons
Joe Benavidez
OSP
Wonderboy

[Sanity Check]

I have it something like this.

Johny Hendricks ? Stephen Thompson
Roy Nelson < Jared Rosholt
Ovince Saint Preux > Rafael Cavalcante
Joseph Benavidez > Zach Makovsky
Misha Cirkunov > Alex Nicholson
Mike Pyle > Sean Spencer

Josh Burkman > K.J. Noons
Derrick Lewis > Damian Grabowski
Ray Borg < Justin Scoggins
Noad Lahat > Diego Rivas

Mickey Gall > Mike Jackson
Artem Lobov > Alex White

Don't tail me, bro.

I didn't do my due diligence on this.

edit - nvm confused Michael Jackson with another Michael Jackson who fights in MMA.

[JIBBBY]

Unwritten you went with KJ Noons!!!.. Maybe the smart man...

I changed my mind on that pick.. Wouldn't be surprised if that Noons bet hits.... Noons looked pretty ripped and fit to me at weigh ins and he has the length, reach and boxing going in... Looks trained up to me..

On Josh Burkman now to the point of no return. . Original gut told me KJ Noons though... This should be interesting.. Burkman -170 too ouch.. Hate betting straights at - odds.. Errrr!!!

May still hedge with that KJ Noons by KO prop last minute if I really get cold feet come fight time..

1633 Noons wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_145" size="4"> +445

I am emotionally disturbed I shut the door on KJ Noons though just for the record.

[JIBBBY]

These are my picks going in.. Hope I represent better with this card parlay Lotto ticket this go around!!!..

I think I went 3-12 in my last one I posted up so I'm looking to redeem myself. That was my worst showing in years, seriously... Can't go out like a punk!!! .. Don't tail though as I can't be held responsible...

$5.00	$1,022.79	Pending	11 Team Parlay
				Pending	2/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Stephen Thompson +180* <small>vs</small> Johny Hendricks
				Pending	2/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jared Rosholt +140* <small>vs</small> Roy Nelson
				Pending	2/6/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Ovince Saint Preux -410* <small>vs</small> Rafael Cavalcante
				Pending	2/6/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Joseph Benavidez -440* <small>vs</small> Zach Makovsky
				Pending	2/6/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Misha Cirkunov -920* <small>vs</small> Alex Nicholson
				Pending	2/6/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Sean Spencer -165* <small>vs</small> Mike Pyle
				Pending	2/6/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Josh Burkman -165* <small>vs</small> K.J. Noons
				Pending	2/6/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Derrick Lewis +130* <small>vs</small> Damian Grabowski
				Pending	2/6/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Ray Borg -320* <small>vs</small> Justin Scoggins
				Pending	2/6/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Noad Lahat -300* <small>vs</small> Diego Rivas
				Pending	2/6/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2101 Artem Lobov -135* <small>vs</small> Alex White

[Unwritten Law]

KJ Noons did appear in great shape and he has decent TDD. I imagine this being a standup battle and don't see Burkman being able take Noons down, let alone submit him. He has 3 submission wins in the past 10 years. Majority if his submission wins were early in his career (2003). I think KJ lights up Burkman and eventually puts him out within 2.

[BELM0NT]

3 Team Parlay
Pending 2/6/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1057 Thompson / Hendricks starts round 2 -561* vs Fight won’t start round 2
Pending 2/6/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1137 Rosholt / Nelson starts round 2 -202* vs Fight won’t start round 2
Pending 2/6/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1204 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -515* vs Cavalcante / Saint Preux goes 3 rnd dist

[JIBBBY]

Fight day has arrived!!!!

[JoshKnows46]

- Yes he can...

No he can't

[latarianmilton]

I'm a bit nervous about my bet on Lobov, the guy is way better than his record indicates and Alez White will give him the opening he need to make his striking flow but he's very unreliable and could have a brainfart like the guys from Connors camp love to do, i can easily see him just eating shot after shot and looking confused.

[JoshKnows46]

I'm a bit nervous about my bet on Lobov, the guy is way better than his record indicates and Alez White will give him the opening he need to make his striking flow but he's very unreliable and could have a brainfart like the guys from Connors camp love to do, i can easily see him just eating shot after shot and looking confused.

Alex White is hand picked to give lobov a win, if he doesn't get a win in this matchup, then he doesn't belong in the ufc. That said, it's a no play for me.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Unwritten you went with KJ Noons!!!.. Maybe the smart man...

I changed my mind on that pick.. Wouldn't be surprised if that Noons bet hits.... Noons looked pretty ripped and fit to me at weigh ins and he has the length, reach and boxing going in... Looks trained up to me..

On Josh Burkman now to the point of no return. . Original gut told me KJ Noons though... This should be interesting.. Burkman -170 too ouch.. Hate betting straights at - odds.. Errrr!!!

May still hedge with that KJ Noons by KO prop last minute if I really get cold feet come fight time..

1633 Noons wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_145" size="4"> +445

I am emotionally disturbed I shut the door on KJ Noons though just for the record.

disagree with your prop hedge...Burkman has been KO'd once in his career...I think the proper prop hedge is Noons by decision +373

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Josh, you at all worried about Borg or Burkman lines dropping?

[Suggartown]

I'm excited for this. I'm still new to the MMA though I have about 6 months of not missing a UFC event under my belt. Some of these people are still quite new to me.

What are some resources (pages) that yall use to handicapp fights? Or is most of the work you put in to pick your bets purely from your own experience watching said fighters?

Thank You

[JoshKnows46]

Josh, you at all worried about Borg or Burkman lines dropping?

Not at all, doesnt take much money to move lines in mma in comparison to other sports. Rumble Johnson line decreased drastically after weignins and I hit it for another 2,000. Scroggins has no path to victory, he has good scrambles, but he will get taken down at will, and noons has a very small punches chance, and nothing more. Trying to pick the best time to add more to borg. I already have enough on burkman with my probs and straight wager. Never let your opinion be based on a line. Reverse line movement means something in other sports when they have more volume of people that bet that sport, it means nothing in mma, just gives a oppurtunity to add more.

[TPowell]

OSP down to - 320 too

[JoshKnows46]

Too often people allow outside forces to affect what they see. I watch the fights, trust what I see to be correct, and base my bets on what I see. If I let others opinions affect me, I would have never bet alverez by dec, werdum over cain, brian Barberena, dustin. Poirier over duffy, rda over pettis, rockhold over weidman, mcgregor over aldo, people see a big number and they start to think what do the lines makers know that I dont, they let it limit them, they get afraid of what others will think. They then see a big favorite number and don't want to lay it because they don't want to look square, they see the line move and think the people betting know something. Me I trust what I see, I know what I see, it is best to get the best line you can, but line movement doesn't matter, trusting what you see is what matters. That's the best advice I can give on the subject. Yesterday i got the best line on 3 fights, all fights the odds got worse, so it looked great before the fight, but those 3 bets lost, so goes to show you, line movement means nothing, just worry about getting the best line and making the correct selection.

[Suggartown]

Thanks for the insight Josh

[Shagdogy]

Rosholt vs. Nelson - When was the last time Roy Nelson used his BJJ for anything positive in the octagon (other than to get back to his feet)? Meanwhile Rosholt is a freaking decision machine who can also finish people occasionally. Won't he be able to take Roy down and at the very least lay on him? I'm not worried about a Roy sub cause that would be coming out nowhere at this point. Anyone have thoughts on this one?

[JoshKnows46]

Rosholt vs. Nelson - When was the last time Roy Nelson used his BJJ for anything positive in the octagon (other than to get back to his feet)? Meanwhile Rosholt is a freaking decision machine who can also finish people occasionally. Won't he be able to take Roy down and at the very least lay on him? I'm not worried about a Roy sub cause that would be coming out nowhere at this point. Anyone have thoughts on this one?

roy finish in the 1st round is my bet, he got a bunch of finishes in the first round, after the 1st roy slows down, and rosholt has been training in elevation. if roy doesn't finish in the first, i believe rosholt can lay on him the 2nd and 3rd, i'll probable bet rosholt if he survives the first round, which isnt likely as he doesn't like to be hit, has a weak chin, roy has good takedown defense and is good at getting back up, big power, and rosholt has no striking defense and never moves laterally, only forward or back, best bet to make is roy to finish in the first, and probable a live bet on roshot if he is able to survive the first round, and it looks like he can get roy down in the first, which would be the only way he survives the first.

[TPowell]

so excited for live action for this event with 5 Dimes. I'll def be looking at Rosholt if this goes past the 1st round no matter what

[JIBBBY]

disagree with your prop hedge...Burkman has been KO'd once in his career...I think the proper prop hedge is Noons by decision +373

Can't argue this logic Jakester..

However, Burkman is coming off that KO loss and probably dropped alot of weight for this fight.. Chin could still be a little weak and ripe for the KO still...

I just figured if Patrick Cote can knock out Burkman in that last fight it's not unthinkable to suggest KJ Noons can as well.. Noons has 9 KO's on his record against only 4 decision wins also....

I have not hedged this fight yet and probably won't because it could go to decision like you say though.. The hedges are a gamble in itself either way in this fight, but the KO prop has better odds..

[JoshKnows46]

Can't argue this logic Jakester..

However, Burkman is coming off that KO loss and probably dropped alot of weight for this fight.. Chin could still be a little weak and ripe for the KO still...

I just figured if Patrick Cote can knock out Burkman in that last fight it's not unthinkable to suggest KJ Noons can as well.. Noons has 9 KO's on his record against only 4 decision wins also....

I have not hedged this fight yet and probably won't because it could go to decision like you say though.. The hedges are a gamble in itself either way in this fight, but the KO prop has better odds..

Theres absolutly no reason to hedge this fight, its burkmans fight, he can win by dec, sub, or ko, the slim chance of a noons ko isnt worth a hedge, burkman will mix in takedowns, and win a dec easily if noons doesn't tap out before then.

[JoshKnows46]

My Full Card:
Stephen Thompson +210 Risking $900
Stephen Thompson +248 Risking $300
Zac Makovsky by dec +400 Risking $300
Makovsky/Benavides Over 2.5 Rounds -255 Risking $1500
Ovince Saint Preux -380 Risking $2400
Noad Lahat -290 Risking $600
Ray Borg -300 Risking $1500
Ray Borg -220 Risking $1500
Joshua Burkman -170 Risking $1500
Props and Hedges:
Joshua Burkman By sub +300 Risking $200
Joshua Burkman inside the distane +160 Risking $100
Johnny by ko +450 $200 (hedge)
Thompson by ko +375 $100
Pyle wins inside distance +225 $100
Nelson wins in round 1 +175 $100
Lewis wins inside distance +160 $100

[JoshKnows46]

My Full Card:
Stephen Thompson +210 Risking $900
Stephen Thompson +248 Risking $300
Zac Makovsky by dec +400 Risking $300
Makovsky/Benavides Over 2.5 Rounds -255 Risking $1500
Ovince Saint Preux -380 Risking $2400
Noad Lahat -290 Risking $600
Ray Borg -300 Risking $1500
Ray Borg -220 Risking $1500
Joshua Burkman -170 Risking $1500
Props and Hedges:
Joshua Burkman By sub +300 Risking $200
Joshua Burkman inside the distane +160 Risking $100
Johnny by ko +450 $200 (hedge)
Thompson by ko +375 $100
Pyle wins inside distance +225 $100
Nelson wins in round 1 +175 $100
Lewis wins inside distance +160 $100

I am the game, you don't wanna play me.
I am control, no way you can change me.
I am heavy debt, no way you can pay me.
I am the pain and I know you can't take me.

Look over your shoulder, ready to run.
Like a good little bitch, from a smoking gun.
I am the game and I make the rules.
So move on out here and die like a fool.
Try to figure out what my moods gonna be.
Come on over sucker, why don't you ask me?
Don't you forget that the price you can pay
Cause I am the game and I want to play....

[JIBBBY]

Theres absolutly no reason to hedge this fight, its burkmans fight, he can win by dec, sub, or ko, the slim chance of a noons ko isnt worth a hedge, burkman will mix in takedowns, and win a dec easily if noons doesn't tap out before then.

Hope you're right on this Josh.. I will pass on the KO hedge and just continue on with my Burkman straight play at -170..

Burkman line also dropped to -140 now which pisses me off!!!

<small>UFC Fight Night 82 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1</small>
Sat 2/6		1601 Josh Burkman		<input id="radiox" value="M1_6" name="radiox" type="radio">-140	<input id="radiox" value="L1_6" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -110
9:30PM		1602 K.J. Noons		<input id="radiox" value="M2_6" name="radiox" type="radio">+120	<input id="radiox" value="L2_6" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ -110

[JoshKnows46]

Hope you're right on this Josh.. I will pass on the KO hedge and just continue on with my Burkman straight play at -170..

Burkman line also dropped to -140 now which pisses me off!!!

<small>UFC Fight Night 82 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1</small>
Sat 2/6		1601 Josh Burkman		<input id="radiox" value="M1_6" name="radiox" type="radio">-140	<input id="radiox" value="L1_6" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -110
9:30PM		1602 K.J. Noons		<input id="radiox" value="M2_6" name="radiox" type="radio">+120	<input id="radiox" value="L2_6" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ -110

sometimes you pick the correct spot when to bet, and sometimes you don't, it doesn't change the outome, you pay no juice on a winner...like i told someone through pms before the the lines come out, i'm overjoyed if i can get anything under -200, i have him handicapped at -330, hopefully he fights smart and takes the easy road.

[GoBlue77]

Not really sure why Borg line keeps dropping??

-315 yesterday to -215 today. line movement doesn't mean much but this is weird here

[JoshKnows46]

Not really sure why Borg line keeps dropping??

-315 yesterday to -215 today. line movement doesn't mean much but this is weird here

Dont worry about why it's happening, just get more money in on borg.