UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs. Thompson (February 06, 2016)

[opinionator]

i remember reading schoomaker's psychology of poker, in which he explained that your job as a winning player is to figure out what the losing players are getting in exchange for losing their money (ego validation, the thrill of competition, social connection/approval, love of action etc.) and giving it to them so they'll give you what you want (their money).

i'm glad you're getting something out of all this jibbs

[JoshKnows46]

Yep can't argue that Joshster.. I hedge to cover my initial investment alot of the time also and pick a side like in my superbowl bet that TPOW talked me into... I do hedge to win both ways only when I'm a bit unsure and or see a solid angle both ways for profit..

I like to play the entire card which is my deal and I'm trying to tone that down.. I really enjoy being entertained watching the entire event and all fights though with action.

If want action every fight and your un sure about a fight, you could always wait to live bet it, or just put a partial unit on it. If I was you, and had that carolina ml for the superbowl, I'd try to middle it with broncos plus the points and win both bets.

[JIBBBY]

If want action every fight and your un sure about a fight, you could always wait to live bet it, or just put a partial unit on it. If I was you, and had that carolina ml for the superbowl, I'd try to middle it with broncos plus the points and win both bets.

I am into live betting now but I think to play that only when I see a solid angle for odds.. Doesn't matter who I have action on either or in any fight.. If you see something very obvious you play it... I am just getting into live betting now... I've had some success with that in the last couple events..

I actually play alot of live betting with NBA and NFL.. Starting to see the light with live betting in MMA now.. Just limited to one Bookie though and that's usually 5d on the fly which kinda sucks.. I can't keep up with all the other books on the fly especially when I'm drinking and posting here live time... Bookmaker and 5D I have live bet though between rounds but that's it..

I also learned my lesson the hard way a couple of times in the past when betting while tipsy and try to avoid it.. Wake up the next morning and say to myself why did I bet that much and lose??? Oh I was drinking and felt invincible SOB!!!.. Liquid courage works with women but not with gambling.. Lol...

[JIBBBY]

i remember reading schoomaker's psychology of poker, in which he explained that your job as a winning player is to figure out what the losing players are getting in exchange for losing their money (ego validation, the thrill of competition, social connection/approval, love of action etc.) and giving it to them so they'll give you what you want (their money).

i'm glad you're getting something out of all this jibbs

Been gambling sports for 25 years now and still learning new ways to win and reduce risk, it's a never ending process... There is always something you can pick up on even when you think you got it all figured out and have played everything in every way.. My take anyways... MMA I'm still learning, live betting is the new trick for me now... That's pretty straight forward though..

MLB, NFL and NHL not so much though, just an old dog in those 3 sports.. Tennis too...

[JC2008]

I am rolling with Thompson before the fight like most here but there is a chance Hendricks takes him down and wins the first round, then we will be able to get a better number on Thompson LIVE as well.

[JIBBBY]

I am rolling with Thompson before the fight like most here but there is a chance Hendricks takes him down and wins the first round, then we will be able to get a better number on Thompson LIVE as well.

Those live betting odds can get pretty crazy after a fighter has dominated in that 1st round.. I can't remember if Wonderboy is a slow starter or not? This is a 5 rounder so good luck...

[JC2008]

Those live betting odds can get pretty crazy after a fighter has dominated in that 1st round.. I can't remember if Wonderboy is a slow starter or not? This is a 5 rounder so good luck...

Oh I know! It's great because of the shady judging!

[JIBBBY]

I'm really liking Jared Rosholt at +140.. I think he will press, bull rush, drop down and grab old Roy Nelsons legs and put him on his back round after round and then proceed to beat on him to a unanimous decision win.. We've seen Roy get grapple focked before and gas out in fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jared-Rosholt-76763

I think Roy is gonna gas out fast after desperately trying to get back up early on and at age 40 he has to be slowing down physically...When Roy is gassed out then this will be Rosholts fight to win!!! DC and Josh Barnett did a grapple fock job on Roy Nelson recently for decision wins so Rosholt can do the same... Rosholt just needs to avoid the looping bombs early on and clinch up.. All but one of Roy Nelson's decision losses have come by way of unanimous...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Roy-Nelson-10249

The unanimous decision prop isn't up yet but the standard decision prop is at +195 so you know the unanimous decision prop might be in the +300 range... Something to think about with the 29 year old wrestler in Jared Rosholt whom is pretty much a decision machine himself....

1107 Rosholt wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_31" name="radiox" type="radio">+195

He's gotta avoid this -

[UncleChael]

Nelson round 2 Jibbs. I'm calling it now. I predict these things. Roy Nelson is my.fav fighter and he's one of the easiest to know the outcomes. Watch, Roy gets taken down after a few exchanges, round 2 starts Jareds more tired, he can't take him down and he gets floored on the feet. I predict deez these tings.

[TPowell]

Johnny Hendricks woke up at 169.8 pounds this morning according to himself at UFC open workouts. Johny gonna Johny in this one boys

[JIBBBY]

Nelson round 2 Jibbs. I'm calling it now. I predict these things. Roy Nelson is my.fav fighter and he's one of the easiest to know the outcomes. Watch, Roy gets taken down after a few exchanges, round 2 starts Jareds more tired, he can't take him down and he gets floored on the feet. I predict deez these tings.

Roy is an old man UNC at 40, he hasn't won a fight in 2 years and that was against an old Big Nog with no chin.. He's just 1-5 in his last 6 fights.. If it wasn't Roy Nelson he'd already be cut from the UFC.. He's gonna be put on his back in this one Unc.. Don't bet on the lucky haymaker punch landing at - odds.. It's a bad gambling move IMO...

This much younger elite wrestler Rosholt has been improving fight to fight as I've seen them all.. He's a very determined strong wrestler that is relentless with his doubles and singles.. Watch his recent fights.. He sizes up well with Roy as well... This should be a wrestling clinic with Roy on his back the entire fight breathing hard...

I'm going big on Rosholt myself at +140.. May hedge a bit with the 1st round Roy Nelson KO prop at +170 but haven't yet.. Nelson ITD -120 if I don't wanna get greedy..

[UncleChael]

Roy is an old man UNC at 40, he hasn't won a fight in 2 years and that was against an old Big Nog with no chin.. He's just 1-5 in his last 6 fights.. If it wasn't Roy Nelson he'd already be cut from the UFC.. He's gonna be put on his back in this one Unc.. Don't bet on the lucky haymaker punch landing at - odds.. It's a bad gambling move IMO...

This much younger elite wrestler Rosholt has been improving fight to fight as I've seen them all.. He's a very determined strong wrestler that is relentless with his doubles and singles.. Watch his recent fights.. He sizes up well with Roy as well... This should be a wrestling clinic with Roy on his back the entire fight breathing hard...

I'm going big on Rosholt myself at +140.. May hedge a bit with the 1st round Roy Nelson KO prop at +170 but haven't yet..

Your boy bet Nelson R1 against nog at +500 the fight he won. Nelson BJJ won't have him in any trouble and don't let the big boy back on his feet or it's lights out. Rosholt can't keep this man down and he won't be able to strike with him.

[UncleChael]

Johnny Hendricks woke up at 169.8 pounds this morning according to himself at UFC open workouts. Johny gonna Johny in this one boys

Haha it's going to be a good one!

[jt315]

Johnny Hendricks woke up at 169.8 pounds this morning according to himself at UFC open workouts. Johny gonna Johny in this one boys

The new nutritionist will make a world of difference in the fight for him.
We all know his weight cut problems.

[TPowell]

I really don't see why Josh and others are on Thompson. The guy beat Whitaker who has an awful chin at 170 and Patrick Cote. Hendricks is extremely motivated and in great shape and could win this fight standing for 25 mins IMO

[JIBBBY]

I really don't see why Josh and others are on Thompson. The guy beat Whitaker who has an awful chin at 170 and Patrick Cote. Hendricks is extremely motivated and in great shape and could win this fight standing for 25 mins IMO

I'm not super confident at all now that Wonderboy wins this.. JH looks in great shape and seems ready to go, he's got the experience, granite jaw and wrestling too... Wonderboy has that "IT" factor and hes longer with the more dynamic striking and decent ground.. Gonna be interesting how this fight plays out..

I'm gonna hedge this baby to sleep for sure.. I'm Wonderboy straight now at +210 which I hit when the line first came out..

Got Hendricks by decision +165 for the hedge that I just hit. I'm nervous though with the possibility of JH finishing.. I'll be holding my breathe hoping Wonderboy wins the fight but if that doesn't happen then I'll be hoping it goes the distance.....

[JoshKnows46]

I'm not super confident at all now that Wonderboy wins this.. JH looks in great shape and seems ready to go, he's got the experience, granite jaw and wrestling too... Wonderboy has that "IT" factor and hes longer with the more dynamic striking and decent ground.. Gonna be interesting how this fight plays out..

I'm gonna hedge this baby to sleep for sure.. I'm Wonderboy straight now at +210 which I hit when the line first came out..

Got Hendricks by decision +165 for the hedge that I just hit. I'm nervous though with the possibility of JH finishing.. I'll be holding my breathe hoping Wonderboy wins the fight but if that doesn't happen then I'll be hoping it goes the distance.....

Hendrix can not win a dec against wonderboy. The hedge you should make is hendrix by ko at +450, majority of the fight will be on the feet, and wonderboy has been wobbled before and hendrix has power, but if it goes the distance, wonderboy wins 80 percent of the time. I'm not betting the distance prob, because this fight will be over before the championship rounds begin.

[JIBBBY]

I think you can surely win money if you bet both props against the other to make profit both ways.... Just thinking but not placing, thought to share..

Rosholt wins by decision +185
Roy Nelson ITD win -120

This prop is certainly a lock and almost the same but better -

1112 Not Nelson by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M2_34" name="radiox" type="radio">-1415

(It's very hard to finish Roy Nelson on the ground with ground and pound, and it's almost impossible to think Roy Nelson can win a decision against anyone let alone a good wrestler)

[JIBBBY]

Hendrix can not win a dec against wonderboy. The hedge you should make is hendrix by ko at +450, majority of the fight will be on the feet, and wonderboy has been wobbled before and hendrix has power, but if it goes the distance, wonderboy wins 80 percent of the time. I'm not betting the distance prob, because this fight will be over before the championship rounds begin.

Recent stats and trends when it comes to prop play me tinks!!! =



JH last 5 fights have gone the distance, hasn't got a KO win in 4 years.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Johny-Hendricks-24539

Wonderboy has never been KO'd and he's gone to decision a bunch of times also in his career.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stephen-Thompson-59608

[TPowell]

Why is it that people assume Thompson's cardio is better than Johny's? Thompson will gas quicker than Hendricks when the grappling starts. Sorry Josh, this is the one where I draw the line. I'm with you on literally everything else, but -210 is a gift

[JoshKnows46]

Recent stats and trends when it comes to prop play me tinks!!! =



JH last 5 fights have gone the distance, hasn't got a KO win in 4 years.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Johny-Hendricks-24539

Wonderboy has never been KO'd and he's gone to decision a bunch of times also in his career.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stephen-Thompson-59608

Diffrent matchup jibby

[JoshKnows46]

Why is it that people assume Thompson's cardio is better than Johny's? Thompson will gas quicker than Hendricks when the grappling starts. Sorry Josh, this is the one where I draw the line. I'm with you on literally everything else, but -210 is a gift

Stick with what you see, a Key to being successful at this is trusting what you see and blocking out others opinions. Good luck, we,ll both be well in the money by the main event anyway, so it's gonna be house money.

[TPowell]

Stick with what you see, a Key to being successful at this is trusting what you see and blocking out others opinions. Good luck, we,ll both be well in the money by the main event anyway, so it's gonna be house money.

hear hear, I don't plan on going that big on Hendricks but if the event is good to me, I'll probably toss 3-4 units on it.

[JIBBBY]

Why is it that people assume Thompson's cardio is better than Johny's? Thompson will gas quicker than Hendricks when the grappling starts.

I think everyone saw the UFC tonight show and heard Thompson say he wanted this fight with JH and is even happier that's it's a 5 rounder.. Don't think wonderboy will gas if it stays standing. Hendricks does look in great shape though..

Like I said I'm really curious to see how this fight plays out in the championship rounds.. GO WONDERBOY!!!!

[TPowell]

I think everyone saw the UFC tonight show and heard Thompson say he wanted this fight with JH and is even happier that's it's a 5 rounder.. Don't think wonderboy will gas if it stays standing. Hendricks does look in great shape though..

Like I said I'm really curious to see how this fight plays out in the championship rounds.. GO WONDERBOY!!!!

I would agree with that, but Johny Hendricks WILL get him on the ground. ST isn't some defensive wrestling elite or anything. Thompson hasn't really been taken down since 2012 and he GASSED so bad in that fight when the grappling started. I get that was 4 years ago, but the old adage that strikers get tired grappling is very true and will be true Saturday night

[JIBBBY]

I would agree with that, but Johny Hendricks WILL get him on the ground. ST isn't some defensive wrestling elite or anything. Thompson hasn't really been taken down since 2012 and he GASSED so bad in that fight when the grappling started. I get that was 4 years ago, but the old adage that strikers get tired grappling is very true and will be true Saturday night

Yeah, but Wonderboy has been training with Chris Weidman lately with his wrestling and that's a bad boy to train with in that department.. Wonderboy seems very comfortable fighting strong wrestlers... I think that's why he wanted this fight to begin with.. Don't over look Wonderboys ground and certainly don't over look his striking.... He actually surprised me with his own wrestling in past fights.. Can he out wrestle JH no, but can he become a defensive wrestler in this fight maybe yes..

I don't think JH leans on his wrestling that much anyways in fights.. He's fought solid strikers before and just elected to stand and bang most of the time.. Wonderboy starts peppering and lighting him up standing after a round or 2 then we could start to see JH get desperate and start shooting in..

That's when the fight will get interesting...

1045 Thompson wins by 5 round split/maj dec

<input id="editx" name="M1_21" size="4"> +1350

[JIBBBY]

Michael Bisping stop stealing my thoughts on the show..... Bastard!!!

Got JoeJitsu?

1331 Benavidez wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_84" size="4"> +460

[TPowell]

Yeah, but Wonderboy has been training with Chris Weidman lately with his wrestling and that's a bad boy to train with in that department.. Wonderboy seems very comfortable fighting strong wrestlers... I think that's why he wanted this fight to begin with.. Don't over look Wonderboys ground and certainly don't over look his striking.... He actually surprised me with his own wrestling in past fights.. Can he out wrestle JH no, but can he become a defensive wrestler in this fight maybe yes..

I don't think JH leans on his wrestling that much anyways in fights.. He's fought solid strikers before and just elected to stand and bang most of the time.. Wonderboy starts peppering and lighting him up standing after a round or 2 then we could start to see JH get desperate and start shooting in..

That's when the fight will get interesting...

1045 Thompson wins by 5 round split/maj dec

<input id="editx" name="M1_21" size="4"> +1350

You think Weidman has been there to help much lately? That was going to be my next point actually

[JIBBBY]

Live weigh ins later on today -

[TPowell]

235 for Grabowski? Wow, he's giving up a lot of weight in this fight. Burkman and Noons both at 156 is what I was curious about. Noons showed more energy, but that isn't the best indicator. Nicholson proposes to his girlfriend and comes in at 201 pounds LOL. Guessing he's been pounding it out all week lmao. Misha is so damn big, weighed in at 206 obviously.

[JC2008]

Noons looked drained.

[JIBBBY]

Side by side still photos, quick version which I prefer... Wonderboy towering over Johny Hendricks..

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/02/ufc-fight-night-82-weigh-in-photos-the-ultimate-face-off-a-wedding-proposal#slideIdslide-8

[TPowell]

Side by side still photos, quick version which I prefer... Wonderboy towering over Johny Hendricks..

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/02/ufc-fig...slideIdslide-8

Hendricks was giving up 6+ inches to Matt Brown and Lawler as well

[JoshKnows46]

Side by side still photos, quick version which I prefer... Wonderboy towering over Johny Hendricks..

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/02/ufc-fig...slideIdslide-8

hendrix shoes off vs wonderboy shoes on...looked like a 5-6 inch height advantage, but its really only about 3 inch diffrence, reach advantage is huge though, gonna keep little johnny on the end of his punches all night, till he finishes him with a head kick.

[Sykes]

I like wonderboy but I think he gets starched in this one, hes been hit a few times and if that happens here I think he gets KO'd. Hendricks looks in shape wants that belt back bad.