UFC on FOX 18: Johnson vs. Bader (January 30, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

Went with Bader in rounds 4 and 5 for 10 bucks a pop just for giggles and kicks also.. Odds are fat and you never know? If Rumble is completely gassed out and getting ground and pounded on Bader could get the late stoppage..

$10.00

$337.50

Pending

1/30/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1021 Bader wins in round 4 +3375* <small>vs</small> Any other result

$10.00

$437.50

Pending

1/30/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1023 Bader wins in round 5 +4375* <small>vs</small> Any other result

That wraps up all my betting on this fight!!!.. Locked and loaded!!! No need to wait for weigh-ins as both these guys always look the same and the odds could change......

[Sanity Check]

Main event is tough to call.

Johnson hits hard. Bader is elusive and hard to hit.

Johnson has never gone 5 rounds before, with his cardio being suspect.

Can Johnson land a solid shot on Bader before gasing out?

Full odds are out. Could be some dogs on this card.

[TPowell]

Holy cow, Randy Brown is over -200 against Dwyer. I realize Brown may be the more athletic guy here and maybe even better on the feet, but he has ZERO wrestling. Like been in the sport 1.5 years ZERO

[TPowell]

Caceres currently at -350.... I'll probably end up making him a parlay piece and maybe betting ITD unless the line drops. I'm very confident in this fight, but I don't like making it a habit to put money on guys like Caceres

[mirinquads]

Main event is tough to call.

Johnson hits hard. Bader is elusive and hard to hit.

Johnson has never gone 5 rounds before, with his cardio being suspect.

Can Johnson land a solid shot on Bader before gasing out?

Full odds are out. Could be some dogs on this card.

Ye, he's basically the Mayweather of our sport

[Sanity Check]

Ye, he's basically the Mayweather of our sport

Bader is elusive, now. He was a brick with legs and two left feet, earlier in his career. But now he is elusive.

Rashad had a lot of trouble landing solid shots on Bader when they fought. Bader is a lot harder to hit than he used to be.

[mirinquads]

Bader is elusive, now. He was a brick with legs and two left feet, earlier in his career. But now he is elusive.

Rashad had a lot of trouble landing solid shots on Bader when they fought. Bader is a lot harder to hit than he used to be.

Yeah he's the Dom Cruz of the LHW division

[getlucky2win]

Bader is elusive, now. He was a brick with legs and two left feet, earlier in his career. But now he is elusive.

just cuz u keep repetitively saying something doesnt make it true. bader is fairly quick and not slow, but def has bad defense and is very hittable. washed up rashad has trouble hitting anything that moves faster than roy nelson

[Sanity Check]

Take Johnson by KO then if you think Bader is an easy target.

[JIBBBY]

Rumble doesn't throw straight punches, he's not very technical, he loads up and loops bombs.. Bader does move well enough to probably evade and move away from those hay makers.... I'm with Sanity on this.. I think Bader has enough movement to not get clipped hopefully...

[yisman]

A. Holbrook (undisclosed injury) has withdrawn from the UFC bout vs S. Northcutt. B. Barberenera will replace A. Holbrook

[TPowell]

May be some value on Damon Jackson as well. Been subbed his first 2 UFC fights but 1 was on short notice against Yancy Medeiros at 155 pounds and the other was against Rony Jason. Both guys are solid wrestlers. I'm not sure why Levan is so highly thought of. His last fight against Hacran Dias was awful. I can't see Levan subbing Damon Jackson and Jackson has a lot of subs in the regional scene. This fight is going to be an absolute borefest. Jackson's nickname is the Leach because he just attaches himself to you in the clinch and on the ground. The O/U right now is OV 2.5 (-145). I might have to make a play on this one for sure and some on Jackson at 200+

[JoshKnows46]

A. Holbrook (undisclosed injury) has withdrawn from the UFC bout vs S. Northcutt. B. Barberenera will replace A. Holbrook

Dammit, Holbrook was easy money.

[TPowell]

Not sure what George Sullivan has anymore. Seems like he's aging, but he's still a decent grinder. If the Russian pushes the pace on the feet, he should be able to wear Sullivan down pretty easy and win the fight, but coming up from 155 to 170 after a 1 fight experiment against Maynard last fight isn't very reassuring. He did beat Paul Daley before debuting in the UFC and he's a solid striker but I wouldn't call him overwhelming. Will probably be Yakovlev or pass. The O/U is slanted heavily towards it going the distance. Looking like a complete pass for now

[bjpenn85]

May be some value on Damon Jackson as well. Been subbed his first 2 UFC fights but 1 was on short notice against Yancy Medeiros at 155 pounds and the other was against Rony Jason. Both guys are solid wrestlers. I'm not sure why Levan is so highly thought of. His last fight against Hacran Dias was awful. I can't see Levan subbing Damon Jackson and Jackson has a lot of subs in the regional scene. This fight is going to be an absolute borefest. Jackson's nickname is the Leach because he just attaches himself to you in the clinch and on the ground. The O/U right now is OV 2.5 (-145). I might have to make a play on this one for sure and some on Jackson at 200+

Jakcson is the one that has looked awful, i mean theres a difference losing by stoppage multiple times while looking very sloppy on the feet than being conservative and boring?

[bjpenn85]

Makashveli can probably withsthand jacksons takedown, and thats a problem for jackson who likely isnt going to outstrike Makashveli on the feet. Makashveli is to conservative finding home for a TKO so best play is probably 3.dec prop.

[mirinquads]

Jackson is getting absolutely stomped.

[bjpenn85]

Jackson is getting absolutely stomped.

i have makasvhili and a parlay for several reasons. I think he has better striking and better wrestling and overall defence. Jackson has already proven to have questionable submission defence regardless of short notice or not. he was submitted quite early so if cardio is one of the element of that argument i cant see that as the deciding factor both of those fights. I find it also hard to believe that Makashvili would have lost so clear against both fighters as Jackson did. I think Tpowell is off picking jackson but the fight goes the distance may have some value due to makashvilis tendency to go the distance, although trusting jackson to not get finished at this point is a bit naiv.

[TPowell]

i have makasvhili and a parlay for several reasons. I think he has better striking and better wrestling and overall defence. Jackson has already proven to have questionable submission defence regardless of short notice or not. he was submitted quite early so if cardio is one of the element of that argument i cant see that as the deciding factor both of those fights. I find it also hard to believe that Makashvili would have lost so clear against both fighters as Jackson did. I think Tpowell is off picking jackson but the fight goes the distance may have some value due to makashvilis tendency to go the distance, although trusting jackson to not get finished at this point is a bit naiv.

Levan is no medeiros or Jason on the ground. Medeiros is the equal to Levan at 155 in overall fighter talent IMO. I think it has to go the distance and if Jackson can stuff a couple takedowns, he has a shot against a very inactive fighter on the feet

[capone1899]

Dammit, Holbrook was easy money.

We know....everything is easy money. Just like : Seattle ML,Condit and Dillashaw

[TPowell]

Just locked in the following parlay after the massive drop in price on Bruce Leeroy. This is almost even money!

Caceres (-270)
Tarec (-230)

[JoshKnows46]

Makashveli can probably withsthand jacksons takedown, and thats a problem for jackson who likely isnt going to outstrike Makashveli on the feet. Makashveli is to conservative finding home for a TKO so best play is probably 3.dec prop.

Jackson is reckless bro

[bjpenn85]

Jackson is reckless bro

Too reckless, box a brawler...

[JIBBBY]

I see Josh is taking a stab at the upset.... Barberena ITD at +600 too..

<small>UFC on Fox 18 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Prudential Center - Newark, New Jersey - Fox</small>
Sat 1/30		1301 Bryan Barberena		<input id="radiox" value="M1_3" name="radiox" type="radio">+375	<input id="radiox" value="L1_3" name="radiox" type="radio">o1½ -135
8:00PM		1302 Sage Northcutt		<input id="radiox" value="M2_3" name="radiox" type="radio">-470	<input id="radiox" value="L2_3" name="radiox" type="radio">u1½ +115

I just don't see this kid Northcut losing any time soon and being derailed by a fill in fighter.. It sure wouldn't be good for Zuffa/UFC business anyways..... My money will be on Northcut but I'm not saying it's a bad bet at those odds to take a stab on Barberena straight and ITD.. Can't knock Josh for trying it..

Northcut is simply more technically sound standing and or on the mat and that should make the difference in this fight as it goes along..Barberena is a tough guy and very hard to finish.. Sage will have his work cut out for him in this fight that's for sure... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bryan-Barberena-51471

[TPowell]

Looking at this Ortiz/Reis fight and I'm not sure I see a play here. Both guys are top 10 flyweights potentially, but Ortiz was destroyed by JB over 3 rounds and was pushed VERY hard by Borg and Scoggins (split decision wins). Borg is probably a better fighter than Ortiz though and deserving of a top 10 spot. Wilson Reis wins so far haven't been impressive to me. Sanchez is very young and nowhere near either guy in terms of skills, Jorgensen is on the decline for sure, and the other guy was a scrub. He did win the 3rd round against a top 10 quality guy in Formiga but it was pretty clear he was coasting after the first couple rounds went his way. Alcantara was a very tight fight, but I would probably put Ortiz above him and he did lose that fight to Iuri by split decision. I think Ortiz by decision is easily the most likely outcome. Might even be one of those Jibby specials with Ortiz by split decision

[JIBBBY]

Looking at this Ortiz/Reis fight and I'm not sure I see a play here. Both guys are top 10 flyweights potentially, but Ortiz was destroyed by JB over 3 rounds and was pushed VERY hard by Borg and Scoggins (split decision wins). Borg is probably a better fighter than Ortiz though and deserving of a top 10 spot. Wilson Reis wins so far haven't been impressive to me. Sanchez is very young and nowhere near either guy in terms of skills, Jorgensen is on the decline for sure, and the other guy was a scrub. He did win the 3rd round against a top 10 quality guy in Formiga but it was pretty clear he was coasting after the first couple rounds went his way. Alcantara was a very tight fight, but I would probably put Ortiz above him and he did lose that fight to Iuri by split decision. I think Ortiz by decision is easily the most likely outcome. Might even be one of those Jibby specials with Ortiz by split decision

I appreciate your takes on these fights Tpow!!!..

I'm gonna start capping all the other fights this week.. You guys got the jump on me with this event, had other stuff going on..... All the prelim write ups are coming out in the next day or two anyways as well..

[TPowell]

Rewatched the Hall/Natal fight. Hall was able to slam Natal a few times, mostly in the 2nd round. I think Casey has a shot in this fight, but with him currently going off at like +140 or so, I'm not sure its worth it. I think Casey could be too physical and just bully Natal on the ground. On the feet, if Natal is winging punches like normal, Casey has the power to get him out of there with a well timed counter. Will have to think about this one some more

[JIBBBY]

Take Johnson by KO then if you think Bader is an easy target.

I only see this fight going 2 ways -

Bader could win by sub, pound out or decision...

Rumble Johnson only by KO and probably early on..

[getlucky2win]

That's like 4 ways jib

[JIBBBY]

I'm starting to implement unanimous decision props for strong wrestlers/grinders...

For example, like in this Rumble Johnson fight, chances are Bader is gonna win all the later rounds on points and dominate a tired out Rumble IF the fight lasts.. So if this fight does go to decision the judges should see it all the same way for Bader... I just used this fight as an example and I'm not saying it necessarily goes the distance...

You can certainly get better value on the UD's over the Decision Win Props when you really think a fighter will grind out or lay and pray to a dominate decision win anyways..

Odds comparison -

1007 Bader wins by 5 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +775

1043 Bader wins by 5 round unanimous dec

<input id="editx" name="M1_20" size="4"> +1115

[JIBBBY]

That's like 4 ways jib

Well getlucky how about these 2 ways then

Bader for the straight win at +380 and or Rumble by KO at -180..

[FreddieUFC]

Holy cow, Randy Brown is over -200 against Dwyer. I realize Brown may be the more athletic guy here and maybe even better on the feet, but he has ZERO wrestling. Like been in the sport 1.5 years ZERO

Seriously considerin going with Dwyer on this one, but a little concerned I'm letting my losses on the last card influence me. You pulling the trigger on this one TPow?

[TPowell]

Seriously considerin going with Dwyer on this one, but a little concerned I'm letting my losses on the last card influence me. You pulling the trigger on this one TPow?

already in at +165 or +175. Don't remember

[FreddieUFC]

already in at +165 or +175. Don't remember

Good lad, decision made so. Nice one, mate.

[getlucky2win]

Well getlucky how about these 2 ways then

Bader for the straight win at +380 and or Rumble by KO at -180..

where is bader +380? line dropped wks ago