UFC on FOX 18: Johnson vs. Bader (January 30, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

I think we all agree there are several dog plays to be had on this card just like the last card.. With that being said -

The double up dog theory could work and should work with this card.. I might actually try it live during the fights just to see how it plays out, use 50 bucks as a starting point with the first fight.. Double up on the next dog if I lose, etc.. Dog hits should be spread out over this card and maybe Bader finishes it all off with the final dog win...

Just a thought to consider... I really don't think more then 3 favorites will hit in a row with this card and the way the fight schedule is lined up... You can be drunk and still do this type of gambling as well, not alot to figure out..

[UncleChael]

See ya

We'll see.

[JIBBBY]

We'll see.

Unc you getting tired of SBR and gambling? I see your SBR PRO status expired.. Thinking exit rather then reload, I understand..

Bold statement to say "I'm gone" if B Roth loses.. I'll miss ya Unc if that happens... GO BIG BEN!!

[UncleChael]

Unc you getting tired of SBR and gambling? I see your SBR PRO status expired.. Thinking exit rather then reload, I understand..

Bold statement to say "I'm gone" if B Roth loses.. I'll miss ya Unc if that happens... GO BIG BEN!!

I make my own luck. I ain't going anywhere.

[JIBBBY]

Live weigh in video for later on today.. -

[Killer_Demo]

Will the sage hype-train derail and explode?

[JC2008]

Will the sage hype-train derail and explode?

Probably not but you can probably get a better number on him LIVE. Also remember he is moving up to Welterweight for this fight. I like the over 1.5 personally.

[Deceptakhan]

-188 Northcutt fight starts round 2

[JoshKnows46]

-188 Northcutt fight starts round 2

Great play, I'm on that, the over 1.5, brain..smaller plays brian itd, and Brian finishes in the 3rd round.

[JIBBBY]

Will the sage hype-train derail and explode?

It will at some point but not this early in the game... Kid can still get taken down by the strong wrestlers quite easily, that will be his un-doing at some point..

I'm gonna try Sage ITD, and may try the Sub win prop also for small.. Wanna see what Barberena looks like standing first side by side at weigh ins..

1309 Northcutt wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_105" size="4"> -115

1331 Northcutt wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_116" size="4"> +349

[PaperTrail07]

lol joe rogan wanting a piece of sage LOL LOL

[PaperTrail07]

Rivera looking like the bet FOR SURE.

[PaperTrail07]

Rumble-from Missing weight--to weigh in w pants on ---cant make this shit uP

[getlucky2win]

he hasnt missed weight since 2012. like 10 fights ago. moving up 2 weight classes will do that

[JIBBBY]

Rumble ain't no joke and I'm honestly nervous for Bader early on in this fight!!!

Fun trend to consider - Bader has a knack for beating up scary black dudes lately.. He's beat the last 4 black dudes he's faced in the UFC..... 5 black dudes if you consider Cavalcante half black? Check for yourself.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ryan-Bader-22858

Got white power!! LOL..

He did get dropped by a heavy hitting Glover Tex in round 1 but he was white...

He did rock Glover a few times before getting dropped though.. Bader is pretty good at seeing those looping over hand punches coming, look closely at the gifs below.. He fires that quick left and that lands first.. Bader ducks under hooking punches well.. Rumble throws those exact same right swinging looping punches..





Bader got a little too exited in this fight with Glover.. I hope he doesn't try to do the same with Rumble.. These were rapid fire straight punches that clipped Bader and Rumble doesn't throw straight punches like Glover did in this gif..



This is rumble bombing away with that same telegraphed looping over hand right..

[Killer_Demo]

Nobody else playing rumble vs bader total? Im on over 1 1/2 -125

[JIBBBY]

Nobody else playing rumble vs bader total? Im on over 1 1/2 -125

No I didn't play the over but I did try this for 20 bucks.. Couldn't pass on these odds.. Only a 20 spot why not..

Pending

1/30/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1043 Bader wins by 5 round unanimous dec +1115* <small>vs</small> Any other result

[JC2008]

I've never seen Masio Fullen fight before but they said on the weigh-in coverage that his father recently passed away so I expect an absolutely spirited effort from him. +240, +450 by decision. Cacares is no world-beater.

[TPowell]

i've never seen masio fullen fight before but they said on the weigh-in coverage that his father recently passed away so i expect an absolutely spirited effort from him. +240, +450 by decision. Cacares is no world-beater.

lmao

[JoshKnows46]

Nobody else playing rumble vs bader total? Im on over 1 1/2 -125

It will depend on baders gameplan, if he over commits to a takedown, as he will have to eventually to be able to take rumble down, who has a very high percentage of stuffed takedowns in his career, since moving to light heavyweight, it took a Olympic medalist in cormier to take him down, if bader comes in trying to implement the same gameplan and pressure rumble, to try to get him tired and really go after the takediwn, it will be finished in under 2 minutes, if bader does like he usually does and attempt half ass takedowns and not put the pressure on, it could look similar to the Phil Davis fight, and Rumble will take the 5 round dec, exept bader doesn't have the chin Phil has, or the wrestling cormier has, johnson could have went another 6 rounds in that Phil fight at that pace. If bader wants to win he's gonna have to take some punishment and commit to the takedown like cormier did, and if that's baders gameplan then there's a good chance there's a ko in the first, it's dangerious for bader but it's his only chance to win. If I had to guess I'd say that over has 40 percent chance of hitting and I wouldn't bet it unless I was getting plus money.

[JoshKnows46]

B]My Final Card:[/B]
Tarec Saffiedine -200 Risking $1200 to win $600
Jimmie Rivera -160/-140/-155/+105 Risking $2575.60
Rumble Johnson by ko/tko*-245 $245
Rumble Johnson inside the distance -270 $920
Natal -150 $1500
Dwyer +170 $600
Bryan Barberena +350 $900 to win $3150
Bryan Barberena inside the distance +630 $100 to win $630
Brian/sage over 1.5 -125 Risking $1000
Brian finishes in round 3 +1900 Risking $100
Carlos Diego Ferreira +230 Risking $150
Carlos Diego Ferreira in the distance +405 Risking $150

Parlay:
Brian +350
Carlos +225
Dwyer +160
$100 to win $3702.50

[JoshKnows46]

added 1 more:

Ortiz finishes in round 3 +1475 Risking $50 to win $737.50 (of ortiz's last 4 finishes, all 4 were in the 3rd round, dated back to 2010, he either wins in the 3rd or his fights have gone the distance, this is a close match-up, so it should last at least till the 3rd, so think this is worth a stab.) ( (I'm not, but you can hedge with dec prob if you like, and this becomes basically a free roll for $700, because this is a close fight and I expect it to go to the 3rd round at minimum.)

[mirinquads]

I've never seen Masio Fullen fight before but they said on the weigh-in coverage that his father recently passed away so I expect an absolutely spirited effort from him. +240, +450 by decision. Cacares is no world-beater.

Agree with the play, not sure about the reasoning. The new Buster Douglas?

[TPowell]

Agree with the play, not sure about the reasoning. The new Buster Douglas?

Really mirin? Masio is a bum and by far the worst guy caceres has fought in probably years

[Sanity Check]

5 hours, 8 minutes till prelims. This could be a tricky card to play, lots of unknowns, lots of guys moving camps and changing trainers. 2 guys who never fought in the UFC before. Some names on the card who haven't fought in nearly a year. A few fighting at different weight classes. Good luck 2 all.

[Sanity Check]

Really mirin? Masio is a bum and by far the worst guy caceres has fought in probably years

Masio is one of the guys who used to train in mexico that moved to alliance MMA with Dominik Cruz. If he locked himself in the gym for 3 months and did nothing but eat, sleep and shit training he could actually beat Caceres. The things Caceres is best at are cardio and triangle subs. Caceres never really developed into a complete fighter. His growth got stunted and he fell short of expectations for whatever reason. Maybe its because he trains out of MMA Lab and they're one of the worst big name MMA gyms as far as skill and technique go.

[PaperTrail07]

So ready

[BIGDAY]

It's fight day fellas!!!!!

[JC2008]

Agree with the play, not sure about the reasoning. The new Buster Douglas?

I don't know. Odds are he won't win but no way am I laying a tag with Alex f ucking Cacares.

[JC2008]

It's fight day fellas!!!!!

Any fights that stand out in particular to you, BIGDAY?

[BIGDAY]

Any fights that stand out in particular to you, BIGDAY?

Barberena, Bader, and Rothwell.

I really think Northcut get pressured here. He's my top play.

GL!

[JC2008]

Barberena, Bader, and Rothwell.

I really think Northcut get pressured here. He's my top play.

GL!

I agree about the Barberena fight. GL to you as well and nice dogs.

[JIBBBY]

Locked and loaded across the board.... Ready to go.... Bring it!!!!!

[Sanity Check]

Barberena, Bader, and Rothwell.

I really think Northcut get pressured here. He's my top play.

GL!

I have Bader in some baller on a budget parlays.

Rumble faded bad when he fought DC, and also in his fight with Andrei Arlovski. I don't know if he has the gas tank to match Bader's pace for 5 rounds if he doesn't get the early finish and Bader has been elusive and hard to hit lately.

[Kermit]

I was surprised that Bader looked so much bigger than Rumble.