thanks for advice, I think I will put barboza as a single after all.. good luck to you this weekend as well.
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siefer, what makes you think Zak Cummings is worth the -260 price-tag...
in other words, why do you think he'd win more than 72.2% of the time this fight plays out under identical starting conditions (alternately, if the fight Saturday night is to be simultanously fought in 1000 different identical parallel universes, why u think Zak "the mini latifi" wins in at least 722 of 'em)...in the end we have no control over which one of these 1000 universes' results we get...so we structure our plays with sensible bet sizes cuz in some of the universes really weird shit happens
alternately with Steele at +220, a play on him requires a W% of just 31.25% to make sense...convince me that Steele has less than a 31.25% shot here (would win in less than 313 of our universes)
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going from a fan's perspective of painting one scenario of what WILL happen in an event, to a bettor's perspective of making money long-term by misplaced book-lines, you need to start thinking in terms of probabilities (aka. percentage of the "time"/"universes" the event plays itself out in such a way that the ticket you're thinking of buying cashes)
Cliff's Notes: smart betting comes down to "filling in the blanks" for yourself and buying a ticket ONLY if it makes sense
Cummings -260 ML cashes: ______% vs. 72.2% the book is charging me for
Steele +220 ML cashes: ________% vs. the 31.25% the book is charging me for
if one of your filled-in blanks beats the level the book implies (1/decimal price), you may go for it...otherwise the best play is stay out and just enjoy the fight as a fan
if you are doing this right, for most plays neither side is a go...cuz the book is really good in "drawing the line"
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ok, as a fan...breakdown this fight into a "probability that Cummings wins"...
I've been leaning toward Steele, but i'm very open to be talked off of it, perhaps even onto the other sideComment -
You will learn this eventually through harm, but putting one fighter in all your parlays is just not a good idea, especially in a sport as unpredictable as this. You will get burned at some point, even if you capped the fight completely right. Make one or two big parlays pr. card, or round robbins or whatever, but put the majority of your money on straight bets.
You're betting virtually ALL your money on Zak Cummings, and aren't even guaranteed to profit if he wins, due to having parlays the rest up. It's a terrible way to bet.Comment -
a little digging has convinced me that the regional fighter Dominique Steele should be a considerablly higher-payout dog...and that Cummings whose accounted for himself reasonably well with really good UFC'rs is a reasonable bargain at -260
similar situation in many ways with Nijem who's hung with the best (even has 2 impressive wins, at first blush, over Justin Edwards and Beneil Dariush)...against a guy who hasn't done anything of the kind just yet...at -140 seems to be a steal...if Holbrook is a wunderkind and keeps his "oh"in a debut against solid-gatekeeper competition like this, so be it
a parlay of cummings*nijem pays +137 (so -0.728u/+1u)...worth a 0.73-unit splash and a few uncomfortable "sweats" for a crack at a unitComment -
I was gonna comment earlier when you said you were leaning Steele. i think this fight is a significant mismatch. I dont really think too highly of Cummings or else he'd be in a large parlay (can't trust fighters on the bottom end of cards if you ask me). And Steele is filling in on short notice is another big factor in this fightComment -
Side note after looking at bestfightodds...
How in the world is Jose Aldo +155 against Conor? Absolute lunacy in my opinion. If I didn't mind having my money tied up for a really long time (remember, Conor is doing TUF), I'd absolutely hammer that line. It could be the line of the century
I also think Weidman has immense value over Rockhold at -160. I wouldn't knock a play on Rockhold by Decision because he obviously has better cardio than Chris and he can steal rounds later in the fight. But outside of outcardio-ing the champ, I don't see Luke winning that fight (at a 40% clip) since he's probably not going to KO or submit WeidmanComment -
The way I look at it is this.
- Cummings is a wrestler and can grind, which already is a stylistic advantage over steele.
-cummings is a lot more experienced and has faced much tougher competition that steele. Cummings only has 4 loses and 3 of them were to absolute monsters (tim kennedy, ryan jimmo who has going on a huge streak w/ huge confidence which is absolutely important part of the game, and gunnar nelson who just destroyed the "next big thing" brandon thatch). So almost all his loses, have been to stiff and top tier level competition. who has steele beat? all 5 of steeles loses have been to absolute nobodies.
-cummings has already faced ufc level competition which is, like everyone always says, its a whole 'nother ball game over here. He is 2-1 in the ufc, with the loss being to nelson. dominique has 3 ko's and 3 submissions in all of his career, even against the D class fighters. So, you think hes going to grind out a decision against a wrestler who are notoriously known as grinders? I don't think so.
All in all, there is still a chance we will end up in the universe that steele pulls off a win, but I just dont see it happening. So, when it comes to who to put my money on, il go with cummings.
Also just want to add, that every single mma source predictions are going with cummings, I don't think I have seen a single mma media outlet go with steele yet, if that counts for anything to ya.Comment -
Sorry man but a lot of what you posted here is wiki capping. Do you expect Cummings to win a decision? How likely is he to get a finish (TKO or SUB)? What is the most likely scenario in which you see him losing? Do either fighter have any red flags, ie bad gas tank, bad chin, or taking a short notice fight (this is a short notice fight for Steele, which you didn't mention? These are the answers you should be looking for, not looking at W's and L's on a guy's record. Steele is only 27 years old, he can be improving exponentially from fight to fight. You would never be able to know that without watching tape on the guy. I don't mean to pick on you, I hope you take this as constructive criticism
With all that being said, Cummings is the better fighter and should win outside of a brain fart on his end or back luckComment -
Those are great points Oracle, I put all of those things into consideration when making the decisions especially the late replacement factor. I just wrote a quick response to fitguy so I left out some important factors which you mentioned, but yeah, the only way I see this going sour is through bad luck.Comment -
all things considered, Cummings is solid value at -290...thus worthy of playing straight or parlaying with another -200/above ML if you choose to operate that way...
note: if you can't find another parlay-leg to combine with him this card...you can just lay down 1u to win 0.38u or somesuch as the 1st leg played straight right now...then u'r free to price shop at any book you have for a second leg that you may play at your leisure, as a fresh play that risks 1.38u...I NEVER unnecessarily tie myself up at one book to a set # of legs and to their price-offerings by locking myself into their "open parlay"...far better imo to just let your parlay unfold as you see fit as a sequential series of single plays, for as many legs as you see fit..."manual, sequential, step-by-step parlays" are a so much more flexible way to go when subsequent legs are "to be selected later" from another cardComment -
Part of me is leaning on not betting the fight at all, though. I've had pretty bad lucky backing moderate to big favorites early on the fight card. Nothing worth a substantial amount, but i'd normally throw them in a small parlay and have it bust really quickly. IDK, ill have to see how many bets I have after weigh ins tomorrow. Good luck w Cummings regardlessComment -
UFC on FOX 16 Bets:
Barao ITD (+305) Risk: 1.3u
I realize I've flip flopped on this fight multiple times but I like what I saw from the weigh ins to make a bet. With that being said, if Barao wins, he probably wins this fight inside the distance. With the massive weight cut he might be fading late. I will add small bets on Dillashaw in later rounds (see prop bets below)
Barboza (-130) Risk: 1.3u
This bet sort of feels like a square bet but I can't back Felder due to the fact that he hasn't fought top competition. Lighting up Danny Castillo is a totally different task than beating Edson. Barboza has had some issues with southpaw strikers but Felder is normally orthodox (he does switch his stance from time to time, though). I can definitely see him winning this fight but I've always been a fan of Edson's and I think his speed and experience make the difference here. If you're on Felder, I'd probably take a stab at his TKO prop
Nijem (-135) Risk: 1.35u
I don't really like what I've seen from Holbrook on the regional circuit scene. Nijem is a solid 2 or 3 steps up in competition from anyone Holbrook has fought. He is also taking this fight on short notice.
Parlay: Tate/Eye Goes to Decision (-245) + Gian Villante (-200) = (+111) Risk: 1.8u
Prop Bets:
Dillashaw wins in Round 3 (+850) Risk: 0.1u
Dillashaw wins in Round 4 (+1250) Risk: 0.1u
Dillashaw wins in Round 5 (+1650) Risk: 0.1u
Barao/Dillashaw wins FOTN (+200) Risk: 0.25u
I don't feel good about this event. I really wouldn't be surprised if I ended up losing money on this event because a lot of these fights are tough to call and accurately capped.Comment -
enjoyed the betting-focused baknforth in here the last few days...
keep this thread going forward, O..
and GL 2all on tonight's actionComment -
Added Parlay:
Cummings (-330) + Cruickshank (-175) = (+104) Risk: 1.9uComment -
Added:
Phillips (-145) Risk: 0.73uComment -
UFC on FOX 16 Results:
Barao ITD (+305) -1.3u
Barboza (-130) 1u
Nijem (-135) -1.35u
Parlay: Tate/Eye Goes to Decision (-245) + Gian Villante (-200) = (+111) -1.8u
Phillips (-145) 0.5u
Cummings (-330) + Cruickshank (-175) = (+104) -1.9u
Prop Bets:
Dillashaw wins in Round 3 (+850) -0.1u
Dillashaw wins in Round 4 (+1250) 1.25u
Dillashaw wins in Round 5 (+1650) -0.1u
Barao/Dillashaw wins FOTN (+200) -0.25u (hasnt been announced yet but its not gonna win FOTN lol)
terrible event, should have gone smaller. lost a little more than 4u tonight, which puts me in the red for YTD. i see what i did wrong (betting on Nijem and Villante because i couldnt find value anywhere else; although i do feel Nijem was robbed blind). i hope everyone else did better than i did
YTD: -1.05u
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I started off kinda "eh" but went well for me the second part of the card.
You'll make it back next card.
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UFC 190 Bets
I normally wait until weigh-ins to finalize bets but I think some of these lines are ridiculously priced and want to take advantage of them before they lose value. Luckily, these fighters have have pretty memorable fights so I don't feel like I have to watch tape before making them. Two plays right out of the gate
Shogun (-190) Risk: 7.6u; will add more via TKO prop when it becomes available
Rousey by TKO (+350) Risk: 1uComment -
Don't sweat one bad day, we all have them, youll
kill it next time, was a tough card, lines were spot on ..Best of luck with shogun, I'm with you on Ronda by Ko, very nice value.Comment -
rudester ? he deleted the screencaps he posted of his bet slips haha.Comment -
why are you so confident on shogun? he hasnt been looking too great lately...Comment -
Shogun has fought SOLID competition in his losses. He hasn't lost to anyone whom I'd consider to be a lesser fighter than Little Nog. Even if you look at those fights that Shogun has lost recently, he doesn't look like he's regressed too much in skill or athleticism (his chin is a different story but getting KOed by OSP and Hendo are nothing to hang your head on). Little Nog is the much older fighter, he can't stay healthy + hasn't fought in over a year, and other than a patty-cake session with Rashad, hasn't had a meaningful win since 2011 (and that was against Tito). I feel like this is a fight that I'd normally over analyze and talk myself out of making a bigger wager but I'm gonna keep it simple and roll w Shogun to win in Brazil. I wouldn't be surprised if Little Nog is just showing up for a payday and once last event in BrazilComment -
Going forward I might just make one "suggested" play per event and post my additional bets if anyone is interested.
So far I think my suggested play for next weekend might be Neil Magny +115 or his decision line when it comes out. I've been very high on him in his recent fights and I think he might be too much for Maia. Maia is pretty gritty though so I dont expect him to get finished. Either way, I'm hoping for a good line when that comes outComment -
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with much LESS pressure than usual to win for the homies, given that the crowd'll have a Brazzy winner either way...there'll be all sorts of warm huggies and flag-wavies in the midst of which either or both of the Nogs can announce what their wives have long been after them to do...
the life of a respected national-hero/legend/coach/ex-fighter is a hell of a lot nicer one for a 40yo than the same without the "ex"...punchy-face is a young-man's game and Rumble said that to him as "devastating and quickly" as possible (less painfully in total than Miocic did in saying it to Hunt, and certainly less painfully than Rockhold & Romero did in saying it to Machida)...
despite the nearly-identical bet-payouts, Big Nog's got a lot better chance (and more motivation as he'll be fighting a non-Brazzy) to "win one for the gym...and the country" vs the Clumsy Giraffe than Little Nog against the still-viable ShogunComment -
i agree with this. i cant realistically see how diet noguiera has anything for Shogun. Sure, Shogun has regressed a bit but Nog would lose against most of the division (that arent cans) at this point. and yeah, im prob gonna be on big nog too. backing struve as a favorite is just asking to be squareComment -
How does Magny win? Remember there aren't many guys Maia can't take down at 170. He is very good at TD's and then when he's on top he has a field day manipulating his opponent. Magny does not have that 1 punch KO power and Maia can take it. Rory lit him up and he hung in there. Maia all day!Comment -
I think you're looking at this fight in too much of a black and white matter. Maia hasn't done well when he has had to face a big disparity in reach, a la Silva and Rory. Magny had a great jab which he can use to keep Maia at bay. Maia also doesn't possess the top end athleticism to make up for that lack of reach. I can def see Maia getting a quick takedown and finishing it but I don't think he will be able to do it consistently. my pick is Magny by decision, the only reason I didn't post it is because that line hasn't been posted yetComment -
Magny is nowhere near Rory or Anderson's level. Maia has been able to take down everyone at WW and most of those guysthose guys were better grapplers than Magny.
Maia has only lost to the elite. I mentioned this is another post... 5 of his 6 losses were to former/current champs and/or fought for the belt. And he fought those guys in their prime. Rory, Jake, Munoz, Weidman, Anderson, Marquart.Comment -
Magny has been taken down and held down by a lot worse wrestlers than Maia.Comment -
Yes he has. But he's also improved a ton all around since then his earlier fights. He hasn't fought a wrestler in a while so it does worry me but I'm not planning on making a big bet on him. I think his decision line will probably have the most value on the card, thoughComment
