MMA_Oracle: Plays, Discussions, Bets

[mirinquads]

On the card, not even close, but it's no doubt the way you want to go with it- I believe it was +250 or so, that's more than decent

[JIBBBY]

Magny has been taken down and held down by a lot worse wrestlers than Maia.

Thank you Miri finally someone understands.. Josh I hope you are reading in..

[MMA_Oracle]

On the card, not even close, but it's no doubt the way you want to go with it- I believe it was +250 or so, that's more than decent

I'd love it at +250. What's your favorite play this weekend?

[MMA_Oracle]

UFC 190 Finalized Plays:

Rousey by TKO (+350) Risk: 1u

Shogun (-190) Risk: 7.6u; Shogun wins in Round 1 (+265) Risk 0.25u

Glaico Franca (-175) Risk: 1.75u

Bigfoot Silva ITD (+257) Risk: 2u; Silva wins in Round 2 (+900) Risk: 0.1u; Silva wins in Round 3 (+1625) Risk: 0.1u

Neil Magny by DEC (+232) Risk: 1u

Cummings by DEC (+180) Risk: 1u ; Feijao by TKO (+250) Risk: 0.4u

Vitor Miranda by TKO (+307) Risk: 1u

edit: typo on Franca's risk

[MMA_Oracle]

Added: Leandro Issa by DEC (+460) Risk:0.25u

[MMA_Oracle]

Added plays:

Rousey by TKO (+194) Risk: 0.5u (adding to my 1u; 1.5u total)
Franca (-185) Risk: 1.85u (adding to my 1.75u; 3.6u total)
Jake Shields (-155) Risk: 3.1u *WSOF*

[MMA_Oracle]

UFC 190 Results:

Rousey by TKO (+350) Risk: 1u ; Rousey by TKO (+194) Risk: 0.5u 4.47u

*WSOF* Jake Shields (-155) Risk: 3.1u 3.1u- dirty ass Palhares. I'll be so happy when someone breaks his arm

Shogun (-190) Risk: 7.6u; Shogun wins in Round 1 (+265) Risk 0.25u 3.75u

Glaico Franca (-175) Risk: 1.75u; Franca (-185) Risk: 1.85u 2u

Bigfoot Silva ITD (+257) Risk: 2u; Silva wins in Round 2 (+900) Risk: 0.1u; Silva wins in Round 3 (+1625) Risk: 0.1u 5.94u

Neil Magny by DEC (+232) Risk: 1u 1u

Cummings by DEC (+180) Risk: 1u ; Feijao by TKO (+250) Risk: 0.4u 1.4u

Leandro Issa by DEC (+460) Risk: 0.25u 0.25u

Vitor Miranda by TKO (+307) Risk: 1u 3.07u


August 1 Total: 13.73u

[bjpenn85]

well done. I lost after betting sao palelei.

[MMA_Oracle]

well done. I lost after betting sao palelei.

thank you. i dont blame you, if Soa had a decent gas tank, i would have been on him as well. you'll get it back next week!

[fitguy67]

[siefer]

congrats man. The card went sour for me after palelei lost, but just a set back.

[MMA_Oracle]

congrats man. The card went sour for me after palelei lost, but just a set back.

Oh man. I wish you and bjpenn85 would have checked in and asked for my thoughts before placing your bets on Soa. The fight went exactly as I thought it would and I am kicking myself for not putting a full unit on the round 2 and round 3 props (i wouldn't be saying this if he lost, though ). This fight was very reminiscent of Mir-Duffee in the sense that the more talented and accomplished fighter was the underdog because of losses to much better opponents. And while I understand being hesistent on betting Bigfoot, you have to pick and choose who you fade him against. You'll win your money back next weekend, chin up

[siefer]

Oh man. I wish you and bjpenn85 would have checked in and asked for my thoughts before placing your bets on Soa. The fight went exactly as I thought it would and I am kicking myself for not putting a full unit on the round 2 and round 3 props (i wouldn't be saying this if he lost, though ). This fight was very reminiscent of Mir-Duffee in the sense that the more talented and accomplished fighter was the underdog because of losses to much better opponents. And while I understand being hesistent on betting Bigfoot, you have to pick and choose who you fade him against. You'll win your money back next weekend, chin up

Yeah, I'll definitely be more proactive about my picks for next week. Live and learn.

[bjpenn85]

Oh man. I wish you and bjpenn85 would have checked in and asked for my thoughts before placing your bets on Soa. The fight went exactly as I thought it would and I am kicking myself for not putting a full unit on the round 2 and round 3 props (i wouldn't be saying this if he lost, though ). This fight was very reminiscent of Mir-Duffee in the sense that the more talented and accomplished fighter was the underdog because of losses to much better opponents. And while I understand being hesistent on betting Bigfoot, you have to pick and choose who you fade him against. You'll win your money back next weekend, chin up

I hedged with Silva TKO, but i should have hedged to cover 100% of the wager. Annoys me. I knew Soa was bad standing up, but i thought silva was worse.I feel like harassing Soa on social media.

[MMA_Oracle]

I hedged with Silva TKO, but i should have hedged to cover 100% of the wager. Annoys me. I knew Soa was bad standing up, but i thought silva was worse.I feel like harassing Soa on social media.

It happens. I hope you didn't lose too much. Soa only has one round in him. If you had access to live betting, that fight would have been an easy killing that rarely comes along

[MMA_Oracle]

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 73: Early Play

Like last week I'm going to play a line early because I think it has massive value and I want to take advantage of it before it drops. After briefly looking at the lines, I don't think I will have as many plays as I did yesterday. Maybe more props than straight bets

St. Preux by DEC (+900) Risk: 1u
Glover has only been stopped once in his career and that was a very long time ago. I think OSP's speed and length can give Glover a tough fight but I'm not entirely sure I think OSP wins this fight. I just feel like IF OSP were to win, more often than not, it would be by decision.

[BASSENCO]

Won on Palhares

I picked up $274 betting on Palhares on Saturday night (MMA-WSOF). I had predicted a KO, but am glad the sportsbook offered only "Palhares inside the distance," since he ultimately used a kimura to end it. But it was a successful couple of bets for me (as I bet both the win and the inside distance).

[MMA_Oracle]

I picked up $274 betting on Palhares on Saturday night (MMA-WSOF). I had predicted a KO, but am glad the sportsbook offered only "Palhares inside the distance," since he ultimately used a kimura to end it. But it was a successful couple of bets for me (as I bet both the win and the inside distance).

[ATTACH]83547[/ATTACH]

Palhares has never won by tko while Shields has only been stopped by strikes once in the last 15 years. I'm glad you won but betting on Palhares by KO would have been insane.

[BASSENCO]

Palhares has never won by tko while Shields has only been stopped by strikes once in the last 15 years. I'm glad you won but betting on Palhares by KO would have been insane.

Haha! Thanks! I'm glad I won, too! But I did put down only a few dollars on the "inside distance" (or would have been KO). I wasn't so sure about that. The inputs I use suggested a brief fight, and since I do boxing more than MMA, my default was KO. God helps fools, apparently. I felt like I should have checked in here on the forum before I bet, but I was running out of time. Next time, I'll plan better.

[MMA_Oracle]

Haha! Thanks! I'm glad I won, too! But I did put down only a few dollars on the "inside distance" (or would have been KO). I wasn't so sure about that. The inputs I use suggested a brief fight, and since I do boxing more than MMA, my default was KO. God helps fools, apparently. I felt like I should have checked in here on the forum before I bet, but I was running out of time. Next time, I'll plan better.

Sometimes its better to be lucky than good but yeah, betting on Palhares to finish the fight (sub or tko) was a good bet since he probably wasn't going to win a decision had it gone the 5 rounds. That's just his fighting style. So you automatically would get better odds on betting Palhares. I didn't think he would be able to sub Shields since Shields is pretty damn good on the ground as well. That fight, aside from the dirty-ness, just showed that Palhares is top tier on the ground. I know nothing about boxing so if you got any plays, please check in and let me hear them! Check in next Saturday for more finalized plays for the UFC card next weekend

[BASSENCO]

I know nothing about boxing so if you got any plays, please check in and let me hear them! Check in next Saturday for more finalized plays for the UFC card next weekend

Thank you! Right now my percentage for title fights is at 87% accuracy, but I have only 15 fights under my belt. This coming weekend is kind of a downer for boxing, but if I have a good pick, I will let you know. But you should know my record. I have correctly picked 13 of 15 title fights and muffed 2. I cannot always reach a conclusion: for example, the Payano Warren fight had me dumbfounded. And it turned out to be a very close fight with a split decision.

[mirinquads]

I'd love it at +250. What's your favorite play this weekend?

Sorry dude, didn't see.. Was pretty much on the same as you, except Maia big and Paleli.. Was huge on Glacio.. He was like 2 weightclasses bigger, better everywhere and -155.. Didn't get that line at all.

This card is much harder to bet though imo.. Only on Watson +160 and McCAN -180 so far.

[siefer]

Thoughts on Uriah Hall vs Oluwale Bamgbose? I know Hall hasn't performed up to his "expectation" but hes a solid fighter. All of his losses has been to stiff competition and they were split decisions with the only true big loss to Weidman (which is understandable). I feel like he should be able to beat Bamgbose pretty decisively. Bamgbose is only 5-0 and has just been knocking out cans, I think the octagon jitters and "big show" will affect him as well. He is also coming in at short notice. Maybe put a unit or 2 on this fight? What do you think?

His last fight

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Oluwale-Bamgbose-103153

[mirinquads]

Uriah hall has been supposed to easily beat every single opponent he has faced in the UFC.

[MMA_Oracle]

Sorry dude, didn't see.. Was pretty much on the same as you, except Maia big and Paleli.. Was huge on Glacio.. He was like 2 weightclasses bigger, better everywhere and -155.. Didn't get that line at all.

This card is much harder to bet though imo.. Only on Watson +160 and McCAN -180 so far.

No worries. I agree about Glaico, I wish I would have played him bigger. I should have listened about Maia/Magny; Magny was just outclassed. Preliminary overview and I think I like Saenz but that's about it. Waiting for the props in the main and co-main to make a play in those

Thoughts on Uriah Hall vs Oluwale Bamgbose? I know Hall hasn't performed up to his "expectation" but hes a solid fighter. All of his losses has been to stiff competition and they were split decisions with the only true big loss to Weidman (which is understandable). I feel like he should be able to beat Bamgbose pretty decisively. Bamgbose is only 5-0 and has just been knocking out cans, I think the octagon jitters and "big show" will affect him as well. He is also coming in at short notice. Maybe put a unit or 2 on this fight? What do you think?

His last fight

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Oluwale-Bamgbose-103153

Uriah hall has been supposed to easily beat every single opponent he has faced in the UFC.

Exactly what mirinquads said. This should be a fight for Hall to showcase his talents and get in the W column but no way will I bet him straight. I might throw something on his opponent if he hits +350-400

[JIBBBY]

^^ This is whom Bamgbose trains with at C1 New York in this picture below.. I don't see anyone in this picture that I recognize besides Bamgbose..

Bamgbose does look quick on his feet and appears to pack some power with his punches.. Undefeated so far at only 5-0 all by 1st round KO's....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Oluwale-Bamgbose-103153 Uriah Hall kinda sucks also..

I might also try this no name kid against Hall as well if the odds jump over +300.. With ya MMA Oracle on that..

[MMA_Oracle]

^^ This is whom Bamgbose trains with at C1 New York in this picture below.. I don't see anyone in this picture that I recognize besides Bamgbose..

Bamgbose does look quick on his feet and appears to pack some power with his punches.. Undefeated so far at only 5-0 all by 1st round KO's....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Oluwale-Bamgbose-103153 Uriah Hall kinda sucks also..

I might also try this no name kid against Hall as well if the odds jump over +300.. With ya MMA Oracle on that..

Thank you for posting that picture. Recently there have been a good amount of late replacement fighters filling in and getting a UFC contract in the process. Their record hasn't been too good. And like siefer said earlier, Hall has only lost to solid UFC-level competition. Bamgbose's youtube fights are fun to watch so I'm hoping he shows us something good this weekend, win or lose

[MMA_Oracle]

UFC Fight Night 73:

Dustin Ortiz by DEC (-125) Risk: 2.5u

[MMA_Oracle]

^^ i'm not liking my bet on Ortiz by DEC anymore. i think he wins but i can see him getting a tko or sub. ah jumped the gun on that one

UFC Fight Night 73 Added Plays:

Dariush by SUB (+375) Risk: 0.5u

Alvey by TKO (+500) Risk: 0.1u

Not liking this card at all. I'm still undecided on the main event but that might just limit myself to my 1u play on OSP by decision. I usually lose a fair amount if I try to find value when it's not there

[siefer]

I also like Dariush for this fight...

[MMA_Oracle]

I also like Dariush for this fight...

i don't really know how I feel about Dariush straight up winning this fight. I favor MJ and would bet him at even odds but I think Dariush's sub line is pretty good seeing as that is probably his most likely way of winning. I think the chances of him winning a stand up battle are pretty low. So in my mind, I'm betting Dariush to win the fight at +375. I'd also be shocked if he would successfully wrestle MJ without subbing him. I'm not sure if that makes sense but it does in my mind

[MMA_Oracle]

Finalized UFC FIGHT NIGHT 73 Plays:

St. Preux by DEC (+900) Risk: 1u; *hedging out* NOT St. Preux by DEC (-635) Risk: 8.64u 0.36u

Texeira (-105) Risk: 2.1u; Texeira by Sub (+422) Risk: 1u

Johnson (-155) Risk: 3.1u

Dariush by SUB (+375) Risk: 0.5u

Bamgbose by TKO (+509) Risk: 0.5u

Alvey by TKO (+500) Risk: 0.1u

Dustin Ortiz by DEC (-125) Risk: 2.5u* i don't like this play as much as I originally did. Ortiz probably gets it done but he might pull a sub. I'm just gonna let it ride though instead of trying to add on his sub prop

Geane Herrera (+378) Risk: 0.5u

McMann by TKO (+370) Risk: 0.5u

I don't really like this card. Most confident bet tonight is Glover

[MMA_Oracle]

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 73 Results:

St. Preux by DEC (+900) Risk: 1u; *hedging out* NOT St. Preux by DEC (-635) Risk: 8.64u 0.36u

Texeira (-105) Risk: 2.1u; Texeira by Sub (+422) Risk: 1u 6.22u

Johnson (-155) Risk: 3.1u 3.1u

Dariush by SUB (+375) Risk: 0.5u 0.5u

Bamgbose by TKO (+509) Risk: 0.5u 0.5u

Alvey by TKO (+500) Risk: 0.1u 0.1u

Dustin Ortiz by DEC (-125) Risk: 2.5u 2.5u

Geane Herrera (+378) Risk: 0.5u 0.5u

McMann by TKO (+370) Risk: 0.5u 0.5u

meh, should have only bet Glover

[siefer]

good calls on texeira and johnson (sorry about the robbery).

my results:

[MMA_Oracle]

good calls on texeira and johnson (sorry about the robbery).

my results:

i dont like the juice but i like the results. be careful with that. glad to see you're up