UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia (August 01, 2015)

[JoshKnows46]

12 months after being knocked out by Anthony Johnson. Lil Nog enters the Octagon to fight Shogun, who is (1-4) in last five fights.

Wouldnt put money on either guy, both have power and declining chins, and both should want to put on a fight for their home town fans, under might be worth a look.

[bjpenn85]

Its not bizarre obviously, its because they are fat and have no skill.

[bjpenn85]

I know, while the distance prop often is juicy and unreliable. Or at least for me. I cant get those right anymore. I lost bigtime on joubain not going the distance..who saw that coming and that prop cost me -400.

[JoshKnows46]

I know, while the distance prop often is juicy and unreliable. Or at least for me. I cant get those right anymore. I lost bigtime on joubain not going the distance..who saw that coming and that prop cost me -400.

Bet against bad chins, against big power, or like you said the higher weight classes not going the distance, the lower weight classes going the distance, most women fights outside of cyborg and Ronda. Even money fights go the distance a good bit like we saw in the last card. Should have many finishes on this card. The under probs might be the way to go with this card, it's brutal to try to put your money on a side In the majority of these main card fights.

[bjpenn85]

Whole card out now on 5dimes. its a shame cummins have so poor defence. I would be all over him at this price, but i just cant put pull the trigger. Cavalcante got really god take down defence and good enough striking to knock him out. But he wont win a decision IMO

[richie360]

Think there is going to be a lot of short fights on this card. Unders and fights not to go the distance should be money.

[JIBBBY]

Big nog comes to fight in Brazil, Struve just isn't that good, I wouldn't lay those odds. Though I'm passing on this fight, big nog is the play.

Big Nog sucks Josh... Have you seen him in recent fights? Steam rolled in many of them, knocked out easily.. Sub'd out too.. He's not getting any younger and I don't care if this fight takes place in Brazil or on the moon..

Big Nog won't be able to get around the height of Struve before getting touched on that glass jaw of his.. Struve does kinda suck though but he is still better in every area of MMA then Big Nog right now IMO..

Struve - 18 submission wins, 7 Knockouts, he is younger, taller, bigger and heavier then Big Nog.. Struve has better standup and maybe better ground game then the 40 year old Big Nog right now.. Look for yourself in this link at Stuve's stats.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stefan-Struve-15063

I'm just not that impressed with Big Nogs legendary ground game or cardio either of late as he's been sub'd out twice in his last 3 losses.. Mir snapped his arm with ease also not to long ago.. Big Nog is now 1-3 in his last 4 fights since 2011 and is looking older and slower in every fight now.. He's only getting worse...

Struve has some power in his hands and that will be Big Nogs ticket to going to sleep.. Struve can match Big Nogs ground as well..

I love Struve in this one by KO or maybe even by Submission...

[JIBBBY]

I dont understand the Bigfoot/Soa line movement, I figured I was getting the best line at -210, it's down to -180... People are really betting Bigfoot? Guess some poor souls are goin dog hunting on the bigger name... Shoulda waited...

Loving it!!!!... Hope it gets down to -150 as I will pound that if it does...

This is another Brazilian HW that is gonna be put to sleep in Brazil in a hurry.. Don't care if this fight takes place on the moon either.. Big Foot can join Big Nog in nap time in this event....

[JIBBBY]

Liking Cavalante though as a dog fighting in Brazil against Patrick Cummings.. Home turf for the Brazilian might make a difference in this fight..

Patrick Cummings is facing another big hitter just like he did with OSP.. Cummings might get KO'd again late in this one.. Feijao has fought the very best in the division for a long time now and Patrick Cummins really hasn't... Experience edge Cavalante...Do I need to say anymore? Look for yourself in this link.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rafael-Cavalcante-16161

Gonna try Rafael Cavalante in this one at the +155 on home turf.. This dog might bark...

[the xx]

I'll be the only person playing Bigfoot likely, only other straight up play will be small on Taleb

[GoGoGadget]

Big Nog sucks Josh... Have you seen him in recent fights? Steam rolled in many of them, knocked out easily.. Sub'd out too.. He's not getting any younger and I don't care if this fight takes place in Brazil or on the moon..

Big Nog won't be able to get around the height of Struve before getting touched on that glass jaw of his.. Struve does kinda suck though but he is still better in every area of MMA then Big Nog right now IMO..

Struve - 18 submission wins, 7 Knockouts, he is younger, taller, bigger and heavier then Big Nog.. Struve has better standup and maybe better ground game then the 40 year old Big Nog right now.. Look for yourself in this link at Stuve's stats.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stefan-Struve-15063

I'm just not that impressed with Big Nogs legendary ground game or cardio either of late as he's been sub'd out twice in his last 3 losses.. Mir snapped his arm with ease also not to long ago.. Big Nog is now 1-3 in his last 4 fights since 2011 and is looking older and slower in every fight now.. He's only getting worse...

Struve has some power in his hands and that will be Big Nogs ticket to going to sleep.. Struve can match Big Nogs ground as well..

I love Struve in this one by KO or maybe even by Submission...

Struve fights so dumb and has been knocked out repeatedly, he has taken some brutal punishment in the UFC. not someone I would put money on. pass on that fight

[JoshKnows46]

Big Nog sucks Josh... Have you seen him in recent fights? Steam rolled in many of them, knocked out easily.. Sub'd out too.. He's not getting any younger and I don't care if this fight takes place in Brazil or on the moon..

Big Nog won't be able to get around the height of Struve before getting touched on that glass jaw of his.. Struve does kinda suck though but he is still better in every area of MMA then Big Nog right now IMO..

Struve - 18 submission wins, 7 Knockouts, he is younger, taller, bigger and heavier then Big Nog.. Struve has better standup and maybe better ground game then the 40 year old Big Nog right now.. Look for yourself in this link at Stuve's stats.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stefan-Struve-15063

I'm just not that impressed with Big Nogs legendary ground game or cardio either of late as he's been sub'd out twice in his last 3 losses.. Mir snapped his arm with ease also not to long ago.. Big Nog is now 1-3 in his last 4 fights since 2011 and is looking older and slower in every fight now.. He's only getting worse...

Struve has some power in his hands and that will be Big Nogs ticket to going to sleep.. Struve can match Big Nogs ground as well..

I love Struve in this one by KO or maybe even by Submission...

struve doesnt pack the punch of Nelson, he puts his head on a silver platter, nog will be the more aggressive striker, and Struve doesn't use his reach well, this is a even money fight, value is with nog, very winnable even with his decline... Ground advantage goes to nog, Struve doesn't have the brightest fighter iq, don't see him going to Brazil and betting nog. I'm not betting either, but I would never lay these odds on Struve, I only play over -200 on virtually locks, If you bet this fight, it should be big nog, Struve isn't gonna steam roll him like your thinking, nog has more ways to win. It's a all around bad matchup for Struve, plus a bad spot with him having to travel to Brazil, no value in betting him, you can get Soa at lesser odds, and make more money, just double your bet on him and pretend u put that money on struve, trust me and thank me later. You gotta know when to pass, this is a good fight to pass on.

[JoshKnows46]

Btw I'm a fan of Struve, he's a likable person, just not the best fighter to lay that juice, he has just as much chance to get knockout in this heavyweight fight, I always root for him though, and I'll be rooting for him in this fight.

[mirinquads]

Reports are that Nog can barely move, and literally has to warm up/stretch an hour before he can even train. This is back before the Nelson fight, where he also looked like hot garbage.

Going to be an ugly ass fight.

[JIBBBY]

As bad as Struve is and has looked in recent fights Nog has looked even worse and will continue to look worse especially at his age.. Big Nog isn't a Dan Hendo or Randy C on the juice kicking arse at 40... Big Nog is a legend of the sport and has big heart.... but his body is broken down and his chin is fragile, lastly he can't take PED's now if he ever did before..... Now that's a losing combination.. I'll take the tall 27 year old mentally challenged goof...

Nog has been rocked and wobbled in almost every fight for the last 5 years.. I'm really surprised if Big Nog doesn't have brain damage.. Dana should show mercy and show him the door after this loss......

[Unwritten Law]

Shogun hasn't looked good himself getting KO'd last two. Feels like these legends are well in their 40's. Both chins are shot. Hope they'll be okay after this.

[JIBBBY]

Shogun hasn't looked good himself getting KO'd last two. Feels like these legends are well in their 40's. Both chins are shot. Hope they'll be okay after this.

Shogun is only 33 years old compared to the legend bunch....Shogun also was beating the crap out of Hendo and winning that fight until he got clipped late with that sneaky upper cut..

[imadegen]

ah reminds me of some pride glory days...

[CaptChaos145]

My take:
Struve only loses to big punchers.... Nelson, Browne, JDS, Reem, & Hunt. Big Nog does not have the power any of those guys have.

Nog is 39 and hasn't fought in over a year. Struve is young but he has miles on him. Struve takes this fight even though he's not the smartest fighter. I wish he would use his reach better.

I'm shocked no one is talking about Maia & Magney. This will be Magneys toughest fight by far. Maia should easily get the TD and dominate. The line is a steal at -150 now. Aside from Tim Means does anyone know the other guys Magney has beat lately?

Shogun is back with Rafael Cordeiro now. How much did he improve? Who knows. I think it's risky to bet on either guy.

That's all I have for now

[Sato]

The only dog I could see winning is Antonio. Fights in brazil after all. And the over 1.5 at +300 for Bethe/Ronda is something Im looking at as well because the juice is real. Bethe isnt going to win...but is she going to last 7:31 in her homecountry? I tend to believe so because she fights at home and doesnt want to lose viciously to a blonde USA boobie girl.

[UncleChael]

The only dog I could see winning is Antonio. Fights in brazil after all. And the over 1.5 at +300 for Bethe/Ronda is something Im looking at as well because the juice is real. Bethe isnt going to win...but is she going to last 7:31 in her homecountry? I tend to believe so because she fights at home and doesnt want to lose viciously to a blonde USA boobie girl.

The Bell will ring and Bethe Correira will have a broken arm within 10 seconds.

[bjpenn85]

he made quick work of H.G.Lim, which is def a very tuf fighter. Magny survived the early onslaught and came back like a madman and finished him. Its scary betting against a magny now. Magnys is good keeping people at the end of his punches, and he may have some extra time given his length to time maias takedown. I slightly lean maia as well as he probably can get a takedown, and if he gets it, it could be difficult for him to get up. Only one more takedown after the first, and the whole fight may already been awarded to maia, but, there is a huge but, if maia struggles which is def a possibility, he wont stand a chance. So at -150 this is def not a good bet.

[UncleChael]

Maia held down Rory for a round and Magny ain't no Rory......

[Sato]

Probably. But the juice is real!

[JIBBBY]

Maia held down Rory for a round and Magny ain't no Rory......

Agreed, I think Maia gets the TD at some point and wins by submission or decision.. Magny is long, quick and evasive though and those TD's may not come easy for DM, magny will surely be looking to avoid the ground at all costs..

Smart money has to be on Demian Maia though..

[CaptChaos145]

Put the house on Maia. He takes just about everyone down and dominates with his BJJ. Ryan Laflare was stuck, Fitch was stuck, Story is a better wrestler than Magney and he got tooled. Magney has done well but he hasn't fought top flight comp. Maia all day. His grappling is on a totally different level. Plus he's a southpaw.

[GoBlue77]

The only dog I could see winning is Antonio. Fights in brazil after all. And the over 1.5 at +300 for Bethe/Ronda is something Im looking at as well because the juice is real. Bethe isnt going to win...but is she going to last 7:31 in her homecountry? I tend to believe so because she fights at home and doesnt want to lose viciously to a blonde USA boobie girl.

last 3 ronda fights COMBINED = 1 minute and change.

good luck with that.

[UncleChael]

Agreed, I think Maia gets the TD at some point and wins by submission or decision.. Magny is long, quick and evasive though and those TD's may not come easy for DM, magny will surely be looking to avoid the ground at all costs..

Smart money has to be on Demian Maia though..

I'll lean with the smart money. Maia is main eventing the under card in his home town. All of Brasil will be on Maia and he'll not let down, recently coming off 2 big wins. GL Magny. I think this is a good spot for Maia.

[JIBBBY]

My take:
Struve only loses to big punchers.... Nelson, Browne, JDS, Reem, & Hunt. Big Nog does not have the power any of those guys have.

Nog is 39 and hasn't fought in over a year. Struve is young but he has miles on him. Struve takes this fight even though he's not the smartest fighter.

^^^This... Hit the nail on the head with this post I believe Cap...

I'm not even sure Big Nog can punch that hard reaching up to Skyscrapers chin let alone connect on the button? Nog's only shot is to probably shoot for an early take down before he gasses out.. Old Nog I don't think has a good enough trip or double in him to take down Struve fresh, don't think he can submit or pound out Struve in top position either these days even if he does take him down....

I honestly just don't see how old Nog can win this fight? I may load up on this one.....

[fitguy67]

Liking Cavalante though as a dog fighting in Brazil against Patrick Cummings.. Home turf for the Brazilian might make a difference in this fight..

Patrick Cummings is facing another big hitter just like he did with OSP.. Cummings might get KO'd again late in this one.. Feijao has fought the very best in the division for a long time now and Patrick Cummins really hasn't... Experience edge Cavalante...Do I need to say anymore? Look for yourself in this link.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rafael-Cavalcante-16161

Gonna try Rafael Cavalante in this one at the +155 on home turf.. This dog might bark...

we're 100% on the same page here Jibs...this is the highest-value "far more than just alive" dog that leaped off the card at me, based on my first-pass of simple record-comparison...

"quality of competition" difference is night and day

very similarly-aged but Cummins has a considerably less-experience on the one hand (and what there is, is of generally a far lower calibre, with exactly 2 glaring exception in which he did not distinguish himself at all)...

only "plus" you can orchestrate is if you spin the above backwards and say Cummins suffered far less wear and tear=is younger in fight years=is less likely to be "shot"...but Cavalcante's last outing was going 15mins a year ago against the currently-very-beastly Bader...something i'd have a part time picturing Cummins being able to endure...

gun to the head, price-ignorant pick'da'winna: Cavalcante

throw in the +155 and it's a no-brainer...only way to lose is if Cummins is suddenly better than we've ever seen him before AND/OR Cavalcante has worsened markedly (aka. is now "shot" as can happen to long-on-the-odometer fighters without warning)

even if the latter is the case...unless the first one is also sufficiently true the diff in baseline-quality is strongly in favor of Feijao...and even a slower/de-chinned version may very well be enough to survive and win on guile, grit and power (thevery last thing to "go") against Cummins who's never demonstrated a chin against good UFC-calibre opposition

[slayer14]

Bethe believes she will be the fighter that remains undefeated through her whole ufc career that sort of confidence has to mean something these days.

[Thor4140]

Crazy to bet Rousey at these prices. This dude looks tough as nails. By the way i think Conner was on to something when he said steroids are a way of life for these Brazilians. Better off letting them take a fight with the new policies before betting on them. Wouldn't be surprise if they know it is their last fight they will be pumped to the gills with the juice. Doubt someone like big Nog would taint his legacy tho but who knows. Heck Vandy ran like a school girl when they wanted to test him.

[fitguy67]

Bethe believes she will be the fighter that remains undefeated through her whole ufc career that sort of confidence has to mean something these days.

can't understand how people so reluctant to take a sensible shot...

if the house is running a special +1000 payout on a 4-number section of a single-zero roulette spin...1 spin per customer per day...
actual prob of winning is 10.81% so fair payout is +825

you'd be stupid to not show up everyday and take a crack at it...and you'd be a winner in doing so over the long haul...with the occasional "big surprise" winning bets more than offsetting the $-erosion of the more frequent "no surprise" losing bets...

in MMA you can lose via a lot of weird shit, lucky punches (look at Lawlor's "out of the blue" fight-ender on Saturday...and injuries/dumbass doctor stoppages...and your fighter pulling a boneheaded move in the heat of the battle a la Rickles not long ago that was luckily for backers declared a NC and not a DQ)

Correia is a tough broad, fighting at home...and there's a factor-X...nobody knows how the pouty-faced princess will respond when she actually gets hurt in any way...she MAY rise to the occasion or she may just turtle up and go AWOL...nobody knows cuz it ain't happened yet...period...there's no training for "extreme adversity"...we know how Frankie Edgar or Matt Brown or Meisha Tate or Cat Zingano will respond to being hurt bad cuz we've seen them actually respond to it (positively in all these examples) ...but, in the case of a to-this-point dominant fighter, we have zero data so any surmising outside of that is just bullshit fiction...IF Rousey gets her bell rung for the first time...then it's a brand new fight to "cap" (many fighters are great hammers but shitty nails: think Grey Maynard, Alistair Overeem...others almost "need" to get hurt to fight at peak levels: think Robbie Lawler, Matt Brown)...

fighting at home in Brazil is BIG...and Correia's a straight-up powerful puncher who'll go balls to the wall trying to connect...furthermore, if the perma-scowl queen of armbars' ego takes over she might really want to implement her threat to "play with her food"...the longer a fight goes...the more opportunity there is for the improbable to happen

NOTE: the mistake people always make in betting is to mistake the word/concept "improbable" (aka. highly un-likely) for impossible...apparently and usually a small mistake, yet a fatal one in the long run (much like changing lanes relying on the mirrors, because you reckon a car being in your blind spot is SO UNLIKELY as to be logically ZERO)

____________

Like a single shot on 4 roulette numbers at +1000 (with a fair payout of +825) do i think a play on Correia is likely (aka. has >50% prob) to win? Clearly NO

But from what i know of MMA and all the ways for what you and everyone else deem BEFORE THE FIGHT most likely to happen to eventually NOT happen (such as Frankie Edgar beating BJ Penn, TJ beating Barao...etc. etc.), do i think Correia has better than the APPARENTLY NEGLIGIBLE 9.1% shot given by the +1000 odds

damn right, I do...and I'll take this kind of bet every time, for a suitably tiny stake...

If this was Ronda against some hi-school standin, i'd definitely give this a pass...but this is a fellow pro fighter, admittedly a very one-dimensional but hard-hitting one (capable of--under just the right circumstances--doing something to Ronda that noone has yet--hit her hard enough to truly test her chin), and one who'll go tooth and nail, with zero awe of her opponent, and infinite amounts of national pride and individual determination at this once-in-a-lifetime chance at mega-fame...

you just never know when lightning may strike or a plane goes down...depends on a lot of improbable events lining up just right...and this is the one sport that can change on a dime faster than any other

i say, put down 0.3u on a bankroll-enhancement lottery ticket to payout 3u...if it loses, who the frack cares...if Saturday's the night you'll have lifelong bragging rights on being one of the very few non-Brazilians who ACTUALLY bought a Correia money-line ticket

i've got winning huge-payout ML tickets on

*Newton over King Mo 1 (THAT spinning back-fist)
*Will Brooks over Chandler 1
*TJ over Barao

the multi-unit payouts on these few surprise 's offset a hell of a lot of fractional-unit losing lottery tickets of similar type...

always nice to be in with a smart small chance to add to this list of improbable (hence hi-payout) trophy-tickets

thinking that Ronda's or any-one's or any-team's small chances of losing are ZERO is dumb...

the chances of Correia are under-valued in this ridiculous price...

I'd buy a small bit of Correia's chance soon while it's still at +1000 levels...cuz i suspect that Brazilians will bet Brazil in those hours after Friday's pay-packets come in and the payout will drop somewhat

_______________

In the end, no matter how convinced you are that someone WILL win...and that their opponent has ZERO chance...ask yourself...why are they holding the fight?

summary: smart play here is a tootsie-roll on Correia to win a television set

[UncleChael]

Soa + Rousey under 1.5 + Claudia Gadelha. *Mic drop*

[UncleChael]

soa + rousey under 1.5 + claudia gadelha. *mic drop*

put the fukking farm on it, sbr!!