UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2 (July 25, 2015)

UncleChael · 07-19-15, 04:28 PM

I think TJ knocks him out again.

UncleChael · 07-19-15, 04:30 PM

Felder shifts to a pick-em.

UncleChael · 07-19-15, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Maybe? You get past Daron's karate crap style he's beatable for sure..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daron-Cruickshank-53717

Only problem is James Krause just isn't that great of a fighter either.. He's been dropped before from kicks to the body and that's Daron Cruickshanks strength.. Just saying....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/James-Krause-31766

Idk. I just think Cruickshank sucks.. Krause dropped by 40 cents.

JIBBBY · 07-19-15, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Tate drops 45 cents and Eye drops 35 cents? Now -165 Tate. +125 Eye.

Line did move in a hurry after coming out.. Miesha is solid though, only chicks that really beat her recently are Rhonda Rousey and Cat Zingano.. Only chick to beat Zingano was Rousey by the way. ..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cat-Zingano-33932

With that being said I think Rhonda Rousey and Cat Zingano would both beat Jessica Eye.. Miesha Tate has to be considered in that same class as Rousey and Zingano anyways still at only age 28... Hard to bet against Tate IMO in this matchup.. Tread lightly my friend as Miesha is always a gamer... Fight probably goes the distance anyways and the most active chick wins..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Miesha-Tate-26252

JIBBBY · 07-19-15, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Idk. I just think Cruickshank sucks.. Krause dropped by 40 cents.

I think I might agree with ya here Unc.. Cruichshank is probably more flashy then good these days..

UncleChael · 07-19-15, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Line did move in a hurry after coming out.. Miesha is solid though, only chicks that really beat her recently are Rhonda Rousey and Cat Zingano.. Only chick to beat Zingano was Rousey by the way. ..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cat-Zingano-33932

With that being said I think Rhonda Rousey and Cat Zingano would both beat Jessica Eye.. Miesha Tate has to be considered in that same class as Rousey and Zingano anyways still at only age 28... Hard to bet against Tate IMO in this matchup.. Tread lightly my friend as Miesha is always a gamer... Fight probably goes the distance anyways and the most active chick wins..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Miesha-Tate-26252

Line was too high? They want ppl on eye? I thought -150 Miesha.

bjpenn85 · 07-19-15, 07:52 PM

There is only one lock on the entire card, any takers?

JIBBBY · 07-19-15, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

There is only one lock on the entire card, any takers?

TJ Dill in my opinion is the lock.. Eddie Wineland seems like a solid play to me after careful review also.....

Keeping it simple -

Eddie Wineland doesn't lose by submissions in fights and his opponent Caraway only wins by submissions. Eddie's fought and lost to some of the best in the division only.. Coming off a loss I think he will come out on fire in this fight... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bryan-Caraway-13791

This fight has EW winning written all over it. At -125 the odds are nice too....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Eddie-Wineland-4173

mirinquads · 07-19-15, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

There is only one lock on the entire card, any takers?

Cummings, aka the Cummin' man...

mirinquads · 07-19-15, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

TJ Dill in my opinion is the lock.. Eddie Wineland seems like a solid play to me after careful review also.....

Keeping it simple -

Eddie Wineland doesn't lose by submissions in fights and his opponent Caraway only wins by submissions. Eddie's fought and lost to some of the best in the division only.. Coming off a loss I think he will come out on fire in this fight... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bryan-Caraway-13791

This fight had EW winning written all over it.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Eddie-Wineland-4173

Rani Yahya choked Wineland out in a minute (Remember, the guy who was gnawing at the angles of a Japanese can just now, and had to get a gift decision to win) and most of Caraways wins has been him dominating in the wrestling, just snatching up a sub. Outboxed Perez too in his last fight.

Not saying you're jibbbying here Jibbby, but you can't really set breakdowns up like that.

MMA_Oracle · 07-19-15, 08:59 PM

Anyone who thinks Dillashaw is gonna run away w this fight is delusional. I favor him to win but not as a -200 favorite, that's insane for how talented Barao is

JIBBBY · 07-19-15, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Rani Yahya choked Wineland out in a minute (Remember, the guy who was gnawing at the angles of a Japanese can just now, and had to get a gift decision to win) and most of Caraways wins has been him dominating in the wrestling, just snatching up a sub. Outboxed Perez too in his last fight.

Not saying you're jibbbying here Jibbby, but you can't really set breakdowns up like that.

Wineland is athletic enough to deal with Caraways wrestling and Rani Yahya is a ground master that sub'd out Wineland 6 years ago. Caraway isn't the same as Rani Yahya was on the ground 6 years ago or today, and Wineland has improved alot from 6 years ago..

My simple breakdown is spot on mate...

mirinquads · 07-19-15, 09:15 PM

Wineland talked retirement after Edurado murdered him last year. I agree stylistically it favours Wineland, but his chin has been shaky lately, and Caraway is tough as shit.

And no, your simple breakdown is absolutely terrible, because you write things like "Caraway only wins by submission" "Wineland never get's submitted." That's not how this stuff works, and you should know this by now. Wineland could easily get controlled from top after a knockdown/if his TDD isn't up to snuff.

JIBBBY · 07-19-15, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by MMA_Oracle

Anyone who thinks Dillashaw is gonna run away w this fight is delusional. I favor him to win but not as a -200 favorite, that's insane for how talented Barao is

I do and I think the odds should be closer to -300..

TJ Dil is faster of foot, better with his striking and is also the better wrestler.. I don't see how Barao can match the speed or cardio of TJ in this rematch.. Barao wins this fight if he lands a big shot, that's it... I'm not betting on that...

Barao seems to have lost a step and his mental edge to me in the last few years as well.. Seems he lost his confidence and mojo even with his last fight win to the very average Mitch Gagnon.. In Barao's prime he would have got the Canadian Mitch Gagnon out of there in the first round..

TJ is riding a confidence high right now and is the UFC champ.. Gonna take a superman effort from Barao to take that belt away from him anyways is my tinking...

JIBBBY · 07-19-15, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Wineland talked retirement after Edurado murdered him last year. I agree stylistically it favours Wineland, but his chin has been shaky lately, and Caraway is tough as shit.

And no, your simple breakdown is absolutely terrible, because you write things like "Caraway only wins by submission" "Wineland never get's submitted." That's not how this stuff works, and you should know this by now. Wineland could easily get controlled from top after a knockdown/if his TDD isn't up to snuff.

Wineland has only lost by submission once in 12 years.. Rani Yahya like you said.. At age 31 I don't think he's gonna retire either anytime soon while still being employed in the UFC. Fighters say alot of things after a bad loss but don't really mean it..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Eddie-Wineland-4173

Caraway has 1 KO in 26 fights... That tells me Winelands jaw should hold up.. The numbers don't lie pal and it doesn't get more black and white then that....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bryan-Caraway-13791

mirinquads · 07-19-15, 09:32 PM

Well, Wineland wins by KO mostly, and Caraway has never been KO'ed. Where's your god now?

And Wineland has lost by submission 4 times. Says so right there in the little thing you posted your self.

MMA_Oracle · 07-19-15, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I do and I think the odds should be closer to -300..

TJ Dil is faster of foot, better with his striking and is also the better wrestler.. I don't see how Barao can match the speed of TJ in this rematch and win this fight unless he lands a big shot.. Barao seems to have lost a step and his mental edge in the last few years as well.. Seems he lost his confidence and mojo even with his last fight win to the very average Mitch Ganon.. In Barao's prime he would have got the Canadian Mitch Gagnon out of there in the first round..

TJ is riding a confidence high right now and is the UFC champ.. Gonna take a superman effort from Barao to take that belt away from him anyways is my tinking...

Based on what, his fight against unranked Joe Soto? If you want to play that game, it took TJ 5 rounds to beat Soto, who was then knocked out in less than 2 minutes in his next fight to an unranked opponent. I don't agree that Dillashaw's striking is better. I firmly believe that Barao underestimated TJ, as most MMA fans and books did (Barao was over a -400 favorite in the first fight), and he just got caught in the first round. I don't think anyone will disagree with me when I say Barao was in la-la land for the rest of the fight leading up until the finish after that big shot in the first round. Do i think its a foregone conclusion that Barao will win? Obviously not. If Barao shows up to the weigh ins looking in great shape and doesn't look like it was a tough cut, he is the right play at over +180. If i were to set a line for this fight, I'd set it closer to -150/+120 in favor of TJ

UncleChael · 07-20-15, 12:43 AM

I'll put my neck out on the line and tell you Edson is gonna win and it's a pick-em.

bjpenn85 · 07-20-15, 02:18 AM

I do agree with your points, but hes not a lock..its a reason why kalikas went even on this fight. Caraway may grind wineland up against the cage, or drag him down, make it ugly right, so its not a lock. But its one of the better ones on this card, but you know, this card is brutal, all fights screams avoid like a women being raped in south africa.

bjpenn85 · 07-20-15, 02:24 AM

Congratulations pal. Cummings should KO this niggah eeeeeeeeeasily. Better standing, better on the ground, faster, more experience, faced stiffer competition, i mean, what advantages do not zak cummings have on paper? This guy lost to brian rogers, ryan thomas etc, he loses to crap people, while zak cummings tearing through cabral like nothing. COMPLEEEEEEEEEEETE MISMATCH, and yet people talking about winelands and the lauzons...unbelievable, unreal.

GoBlue77 · 07-20-15, 02:25 AM

no locks but..

TJ wins (better in every regard)

Eye wins (everyone talking Rousey/Tate 3 already, nope. everyone will bet tate low odds and based off name). also fight of the night contender, cupcake does have heart and this prob goes the distance.

Felder Barboza (fight of night) tough call, keep going back and forth on this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uj4yXKmuEgY

bjpenn85 · 07-20-15, 02:27 AM

if youre going back and forth, you probably should stay away. Most legit bets are easy to pick the winner. Trust me, im a longtimer, a long dicker, an allnigher.

GoBlue77 · 07-20-15, 02:36 AM

Originally posted by UncleChael

I'll put my neck out on the line and tell you Edson is gonna win and it's a pick-em.

leaning that way. but expect fireworks there.

CaptChaos145 · 07-20-15, 02:51 AM

I'm shocked Barboza/Felder is even right now. I'm betting the house on Barboza. He has waaay more experience and is the better stand up fighter and probably the better ground. Paul is a very good striker but he's not at Barboza's level. Trust me I've watched them both several times cage side at regional shows. I don't see how Barboza loses. Michael Johnson really pressured Barboza but he also has the wrestling to threaten and he was a southpaw. Plus he was on a mission that night. In order to beat Barboza you have to back him up.

I also like Eye and Miller. Miesha has eeked out a few wins lately. I think she has a setback against Jessica. Plus who wants to see Rousey/Tate 3? Not I.

UncleChael · 07-20-15, 03:34 AM

Miesha will win.

mirinquads · 07-20-15, 05:03 AM

Did you see Eye's takedown defense against Alexis Davis?

bjpenn85 · 07-20-15, 06:46 AM

Bla bla, its eyes time, miesha has eeked out a few wins no. Besides losing to rhonda and cat, shes hasnt lost since 2009. Shes like a womens uriah faber, only looking really unimpressive standing on the feet, like most women do. I mean, theres not a women in the world that i wouldnt beat, like seriously, and i have boxed maybe 8month. Anyway im like 16-5 per event this far, and pickratio is almost to good to be true, my pick ratio is probably somewhere between 80-90%. I dooooubt that going against my opinion is something you would do by regularity. Thats just a fact.

mirinquads · 07-20-15, 09:22 AM

Meisha it is, thanks.

CaptChaos145 · 07-20-15, 10:49 AM

Phillips fought Duke 3 years ago in the ammys and Duke won by sub in the 2nd round. Maybe Phillips spilt dec loss to Dudieva is playing a role since Dudieva is pretty good.
Phillips -180
Duke +150

Sanity Check · 07-20-15, 11:07 AM

What's the word on Andrew Holbrook.

He has 9 fights. 9 finishes via sub in the 1st/2nd round.

Is he good? Has anyone seen him fight?

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

I'm shocked Barboza/Felder is even right now. I'm betting the house on Barboza. He has waaay more experience and is the better stand up fighter and probably the better ground. Paul is a very good striker but he's not at Barboza's level. Trust me I've watched them both several times cage side at regional shows. I don't see how Barboza loses. Michael Johnson really pressured Barboza but he also has the wrestling to threaten and he was a southpaw. Plus he was on a mission that night. In order to beat Barboza you have to back him up.

ITT - Barboza's suspect chin makes it even.

Felder could have improved a lot. The way he dominated and finished Danny Castillo in his last fight was amazing.

JIBBBY · 07-20-15, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Congratulations pal. Cummings should KO this niggah eeeeeeeeeasily. Better standing, better on the ground, faster, more experience, faced stiffer competition, i mean, what advantages do not zak cummings have on paper? This guy lost to brian rogers, ryan thomas etc, he loses to crap people, while zak cummings tearing through cabral like nothing. COMPLEEEEEEEEEEETE MISMATCH

Agreed after a closer look at this fight..

This is Steele's first fight in the UFC, beating a bunch of bums in lessor organizations.. Zac could be in another league then Dominique Steele... His only chance of beating Zac is out working him on the feet, other then that I can't see how he can win this fight..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dominique-Steele-47845

Zac should beat this chump.. Probaly even finishes him before the final bell....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Zak-Cummings-31808

A solid play for sure even at -260...

<small>UFC on Fox 16 - Welterweight 3 rounds - United Center - Chicago, Illinois - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 7/25	2101 Dominique Steele	<input id="radiox" value="M1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">+200	<input id="radiox" value="L1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -125
4:00PM	2102 Zak Cummings	<input id="radiox" value="M2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">-260	<input id="radiox" value="L2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ -105

Sanity Check · 07-20-15, 11:19 AM

Zak Cummings is a wrestler/grappling specialist.

Not sure what Dominique Steele's game is. His wrestling and sub game is about to be tested.

JIBBBY · 07-20-15, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Zak Cummings is a wrestler/grappling specialist.

Not sure what Dominique Steele's game is. His wrestling and sub game is about to be tested.

Try to keep the fight standing at all costs and out box Zac to a decision should be his only game plan.. Not happening though... I normally don't like betting straight at these odds but just can't help myself..

Locked and loaded!!!

ONLINE
07/20/2015
09:17 AM

[Ticket #: 218903267] STRAIGHT BET

07/25/2015 @ 05:00 PM

MU

[24346] ZAK CUMMINGS -250
(DOMINIQUE STEELE vrs ZAK CUMMINGS)

250.00

100.00

Sanity Check · 07-20-15, 11:41 AM

I've never seen Dominique Steele fight. Clueless as to what his skill level is.

He beat the ultimate fighter contestant Chuck O'Neil in his last outing via decision & took this fight on only a few weeks notice. He might have some decent skills but the safe money says his cardio isn't likely to last very long unless he lives in his gym.

bjpenn85 · 07-20-15, 11:42 AM

i havent seen tomuch of him. I saw his fight with ryan thomas which is decent on the ground. Steele was able to stifle him up against the cage and take him down a couple of times, but he pass guard, and has 0 damage from top. Actually hes best skill is standing where he has a lot of power, although a suspect chin, or bad defence have see him loose by KO three times already.

Zak cummings is more technical on the feet, more diverse, more speed. And on the ground, thats where the biggest difference is, zak cummings got very nice ground controll, sub defence /awareness and slick translations...Zak cummings actually isnt that bad. He is kind of good. Steele is utterly shit. -260 will be -400 by saturday, just mark my words.