UFC Fight Night - Through Bread's Eyes
It seems like it’s been awhile since there has been some MMA. The break gave me some time to donate money on March Madness. The UFC returns on Wednesday and hopefully it continues to be good to me so that I can recover a portion of those lost funds. Martin Kampmann faces Carlos Condit in the headliner, and in a strange twist of events, I’m not really that interested in it. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure I’ll throw something on it right before the match. I’m silly like that. Probably Kampmann at -120 to give me some action. But I’m much more interested in four undercard fights for this one.
Ryan Bader -435
Carmelo Marrero +325
Nobody can ever accuse Marrero (10-2-1) of ducking quality opponents. He has defeated Cheick Kongo, and also owns two first round losses to Wilson Gouveia and Gabriel Gonzaga as his only defeats. Unfortunately, Ryan “Darth” Bader (9-0-0) will probably add to his list of early exits.
Winner gets a check-up
I admit it. I was wrong about Bader. In last year’s TUF finale, I predicted that Vinicius Magalhaes would put a hurting on this meathead. I will usually always take a proficient jiu-jitsu guy over a proficient wrestler/striker. I didn’t think that Bader could withstand Magalhaes’ deadly repertoire of submission attempts. He didn’t have to turn him back for too long before he sent him to the mat out cold. I actually saw several letter Z’s floating above Vinny’s head before he came back to life.
I underestimated Bader throughout the entire show and it cost me. He is the real deal, and could make some noise as he constantly adds diversity to his superior wrestling game. Huge chalk here, but might be worth throwing in some parlays to beef up those payouts.
Tyson Griffin -470
Rafael Dos Anjos +345
Upsets happen in the UFC often. You just have to try to spot the potential before it happens so you can partake in the underdog payday. I’m taking a shot here with Dos Anjos (11-3-0). His name translates to “of the angels,” so I already feel like God is on my side. God wants me to win money, and for that, I am eternally grateful.
Griffin (12-2-0) is an exciting little fighter and I enjoy watching him. He had won four in a row over quality opponents like Clay Guida, Gleison Tibau and Thiago Tavares before losing out to Sean Sherk. The problem is, for all of the energy that Griffin brings to the Octagon, he possesses zero knockout or submission ability. Six of his seven fights (and six in a row) have gone to the judges. That’s a little bit disheartening.
UFC fans will only remember Dos Anjos as the guy who got brutally knocked out by Jeremy Stephens via Popeye punch. Fair enough, he got caught in a bad way in his first UFC fight. It happens. I took a look at his other bouts in smaller leagues and it looks like a lot of choke out/submission victories. Chances are that Griffin’s odds are so high because people know who he is, and they only remember Dos Anjos doing his best Bluto impersonation. I smell an opportunity for a nice paying upset here.
My financial Angel
Cole Miller -135
Junie Browning +105
I was shocked when I saw these odds. Dana White’s little white trash project, Browning (3-1-0) was sure to be setup to face creampuff after creampuff. They first gave him Dave Kaplan, who was far more entertaining entering the ring than he was in it. Next up is Cole Miller (14-3-0). I remember Cole from the 5th season of The Ultimate Fighter as being a joke. He didn’t seem serious and the other fighters in the house didn’t seem to show him a lot of respect.
Since the show, Miller beat Andy Wang, who might be the most hilariously baffling contestant in the history of TUF. He also took out Leonard Garcia, which is pretty impressive. Then a loss to Jeremy Stephens, and a submission victory over Jorge Gurgel, which sent Gurgel packing from the UFC. Could it that this kid can fight now? Throw in the fact that he is a triathlete, fighting against a guy whose stamina was a huge question mark on the show, and I’m starting to understand these odds a little better.
“The Lunatic” Browning was asked when and why he started training for fights. Browning said “Three years ago I started because I can’t read very good.” Wow. God bless a Kentucky education. His smarts notwithstanding, I’m a strong believer in the guys who Dana wants to win. Junie looks 50 times better in his training footage than he ever did on the show. I’m HOPING that his cardio holds up and I’m HOPING that the four inch height differential doesn’t present a huge problem. But I’m BANKING that Dana’s guy will win this fight. They usually do.
Take him to the bank, hope he doesn’t rob it
Gleison Tibau -140
Jeremy Stephens +100
This fight takes me back to my theory on BJJ guys versus straight strikers. I tend to like the strikers to wear themselves out, assuming the other guy can endure his early assault, and then find themselves tapping out in a later round. The fact that Tibau looks like the creepy janitor that we all had in high school makes it even better. Or maybe that makes it worse. I don’t know.
Tibau (28-5-0) recently sent Rich Clementi packing from the UFC via first round choke hold. Just under two months ago, Stephens (16-4-0) threw his best punches at Joe Lauzon, who was able to survive and catch him in an arm lock in the 2nd round. I’m hoping for this fight to play out the same way with Tibau coming out on top.
Tibau of the Custodian Arts
