UFC 154: St-Pierre Vs Condit(Nov 17th, 2012)

[zoo youk]

I have a question and it may have been already addressed but didn't ready every comment in this thread.

everyone seems to assume that GSP is going to take down Condit and win the match on the mat with ground and pound

my question/point is, GSP has improved light years on his striking, in his last 5 fights or so I can not even remember him going to the the mat or shooting for a take down. so why does everyone think that will be his game plan? especially when going to shoot for a take down may give him doubts in his mind if he still doesn't trust his knee.

[Beelzebubzy]

Ring is out. I hope bocek gets main card

[feijao]

nevermind

[PunisherIND]

I have a question and it may have been already addressed but didn't ready every comment in this thread.

everyone seems to assume that GSP is going to take down Condit and win the match on the mat with ground and pound

my question/point is, GSP has improved light years on his striking, in his last 5 fights or so I can not even remember him going to the the mat or shooting for a take down. so why does everyone think that will be his game plan? especially when going to shoot for a take down may give him doubts in his mind if he still doesn't trust his knee.

Gsp is very cerebral. It may seem like he hasn't shot in ages, but in reality its only been 2 fights: shields and koscheck. Both of them are stronger on the ground so gsp kept it standing. If you go back to the hardy fight, you see gsp took it to the ground. Here, condit is clearly stronger on the feet, so I think its logical to think gsp will make every effort to take him down.

[PunisherIND]

Ring is out. I hope bocek gets main card

What a f\*g

[JoshB]

I have a question and it may have been already addressed but didn't ready every comment in this thread.

everyone seems to assume that GSP is going to take down Condit and win the match on the mat with ground and pound

my question/point is, GSP has improved light years on his striking, in his last 5 fights or so I can not even remember him going to the the mat or shooting for a take down. so why does everyone think that will be his game plan? especially when going to shoot for a take down may give him doubts in his mind if he still doesn't trust his knee.

???? he shot for takedowns against everyone of his last 5 opponents except for shields

[NunyaBidness]

Ring is out. I hope bocek gets main card

Dammit, was huge on the Greek.

[zoo youk]

Gsp is very cerebral. It may seem like he hasn't shot in ages, but in reality its only been 2 fights: shields and koscheck. Both of them are stronger on the ground so gsp kept it standing. If you go back to the hardy fight, you see gsp took it to the ground. Here, condit is clearly stronger on the feet, so I think its logical to think gsp will make every effort to take him down.

true. you just have to wonder though, going for shoots and take downs is going to put a lot of pressure on that knee, so if something doesn't feel right the first time he goes for one than he may be hesitant to go for them again.

than again he has had to been working on them during his camp. but we have no idea how the knee feels when he goes for the take downs. only he does.

[zoo youk]

this fight might be better suited to watch see how the first round plays out and make a live bet

[PunisherIND]

true. you just have to wonder though, going for shoots and take downs is going to put a lot of pressure on that knee, so if something doesn't feel right the first time he goes for one than he may be hesitant to go for them again.

than again he has had to been working on them during his camp. but we have no idea how the knee feels when he goes for the take downs. only he does.

Could very well happen that way. Imo gsp is the type to panic if things dont go according to plan. But at the same time, if he keeps it standing condit will try to leg kick him repeatedly, which may also cause him to panic.

[PunisherIND]

http://m.ufc.com/news/the-downes-side-ufc-154-predictions

Downes side

Phillipou tko - fwiw
Hominick decision
Carmont tko
Hendricks tko
Gsp unanimous decision

[pongo7890]

Dammit, was huge on the Greek.

he's not Greek he's Cypriot.

[PunisherIND]

Fock, just realized the ring injury voids my o4.5 canadians prop (really blows bc I was anticipating a loss for ring anyway) . And voids any fotn props on 5d (had a bit on kampmann/hendricks).

Although it seems my condit kotn play at bovada is still good. Only stipulation on that one was main and co-main events take place.

[MD]

he's not Greek he's Cypriot.

0/10

[MMAbetMASTA]

damn ring out, that blows. CP and RDA were the only favs I was really liking tonight.

I was gonna say ring looked a little shabby at the weigh in, his face looked all pale and had big bags under his eyes... Sick with a fever I guess.

[PunisherIND]

I was gonna say ring looked a little shabby at the weigh in, his face looked all pale and had big bags under his eyes... Sick with a fever I guess.

Not only that, but, incredibly, he looked even fruttier than usual with the village people mustache action going on.

[NunyaBidness]

he's not Greek he's Cypriot.

Lol, whatever. Next you're going to tell me that Menjivar isn't Mexican.

[BIGDAY]

Chicken Wings on the grill spun in BWWs sauses, beer on ice, pals over, UFC in HD... Does it get any better????

[BIGDAY]

Oh ya,, a profit would be nice. Lol

[Vaughany]

ha was gonna say Hendricks could KO Kampmann in 10 seconds! Then I saw ur post above!

[Imsmarterthanu]

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

• Champ Georges St-Pierre vs. interim champ Carlos Condit (welterweight-title unification)
• Johny Hendricks vs. Martin Kampmann
• Tom Lawlor vs. Francis Carmont
• Constantinos Philippou vs. Nick Ring
• Mark Hominick vs. Pablo Garza

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX, 8 p.m. ET)

• Patrick Cote vs. Alessio Sakara
• Cyrille Diabate vs. Chad Griggs
• John Makdessi vs. Sam Stout
• Mark Bocek vs. Rafael dos Anjos

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 6 p.m. ET)

• Antonio Carvalho vs. Rodrigo Damm
• Azamat Gashimov vs. Ivan Menjivar
• Darren Elkins vs. Steven Siler
• John Maguire vs. Matt Riddle

[Vaughany]

Ah well that's my Philippou play out the window. Most annoying thing is I had fight goes distance with Condit Not by Sub and Mack Not Inside! Gonna have -2000 double now!

[MD]

I'm on Kampmann moderate, GSP by decision moderate, Siler small-moderate, although I think it's a very winnable fight for Elkins. I'm not convinced I'm on the right side here, but I'm banking on Siler's size and athleticism to stuff Elkins for the duration. Elkins has a very good top game and a fantastic, Fitch-like mentality, but his takedowns are some of the worst I've ever seen from a wrestling specialist.

EDIT: Also on Bocek.

I have a parlay-based prop bet going on with a friend, so here's some winnerz-tier parlays:

Riddle/Siler/Bocek: +598
Philipou/Riddle/Siler: +329
Carmont/St-Pierre dec./Philippou dec./Siler/Riddle/Bocek/Hominick: +5165
Carmont/Philippou/Cote/Riddle/Hominick: +450

There's some more, but they're even worse, so I'll spare you.

Anyway, expecting a profitable weekend, between this and Bellator.

Arbing Kampmann bet, and gonna bet on him again when his odds inevitably go back to >/=+110. Arbing Siler and Riddle, also.

Updated:

Kampmann moderate (+arb)
Riddle moderate (+arb)
Siler small-moderate (+arb)
Bocek small
GSP by decision large
GSP by unanimous decision large
Condit wins KO of the night small (Punisher <3)

Riddle/Siler/Bocek: +598
Philipou/Riddle/Siler: +329
Carmont/St-Pierre dec./Philippou dec./Siler/Riddle/Bocek/Hominick: +5165
Carmont/Philippou/Cote/Riddle/Hominick: +450

I'm pounding Kampmann at +125 on PP, and Hendricks at -112 on 5D.

[gabe]

Money coming in on Kampmann and Dos Anjos. I'm in Vegas, fellas!!! Typing this from inside te monte Carlo, sitting in front of a slot machine Lol'd

[MMAbetMASTA]

Not only that, but, incredibly, he looked even fruttier than usual with the village people mustache action going on.

OH NO YOU DIDN'T MISTER!!!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Money coming in on Kampmann and Dos Anjos. I'm in Vegas, fellas!!! Typing this from inside te monte Carlo, sitting in front of a slot machine Lol'd

Ya I'm pissed at myself... I thought money would come in on bocek last minute not RDA and I was gonna wait to double up on RDA, now I'm looking at paying -180 when he was -150 yesterday...

Good luck in vegas, don't get your winnings jacked at roulette after you come up your thousands...

[zoo youk]

Phillipou fought already? wtf u guys talking about?

[MMAbetMASTA]

Anybody else love the kid Riddle? Already he's looked impressive to me.

As much as I wanna back maguire, I think riddle is a bad style for him. Neverthless, I had to take a small sprinkle at +172, I capped a play on him at +160 so I took it small, there is a tid bit of value but I really think riddle is gonna stuff him all night and win an ugly brawling match.

[zoo youk]

nvm who got hurt?

[zoo youk]

damn ring out, that blows. CP and RDA were the only favs I was really liking tonight.

I was gonna say ring looked a little shabby at the weigh in, his face looked all pale and had big bags under his eyes... Sick with a fever I guess.

arghh

[BIGDAY]

Hope you bring down Vegas Gaber!

[MMAbetMASTA]

nvm who got hurt?

ring is sick with a fever, not cleared to fight... he done got the ring of fire last night after a brutal come from behind pounding rolling around with da boys.

[Vaughany]

Got Sakara by decision opener at +975! DAI CAZZZZZOOOOOOOO WAR LEGIONARIUS!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Here's what I got... Still planning to double up on RDA if I'm up going into that fight (even though I'll be paying ridiculous juice at -200 when he was just -160ish this morning... )

Not really confident in any of my dogs, only put sprinkles out of value (although I think kapman is def live and legit). Still a little bitter that CP got pulled, he and RDA were my money bets and the only real favs I liked. Gonna be a tough card me thinks and I think I spread around too many plays and prob should have stuck with just a couple, but trying to remain positive!!! GL today everyone, should be a solid show.

89233952-1	11/17/2012 2:24 AM	Money Line	160.00	100.00	Other Sports - 24234 R Dos Anjos -160 for Game
89241644-1	11/17/2012 12:30 PM	Money Line	25.00	30.00	Other Sports - 24205 M Kampmann +120 for Game
89241644-2	11/17/2012 12:30 PM	Money Line	25.00	52.50	Other Sports - 24209 T Lawlor +210 for Game
89254064-1	11/17/2012 4:11 PM	Money Line	20.00	34.40	Other Sports - 24245 J Maguire +172 for Game
89255030-1	11/17/2012 4:38 PM	Money Line	55.00	50.00	Other Sports - 24250 D Elkins -110 for Game

[DirtyX]

Damn lil dog... I got RDA at -150 holmes.. I got Kampmann, Condit, and RDA so far. Tempted to pull the trigger with a small play on your boy the gipsy... I hate Riddle...