[imgv94]

Let me show you one example, I have a parlay going tomorrow
from Seattle -4(NBA) to Blue Jays(MLB) and it is paying +208
for 1 unit. So now I only risked 1 unit to make 2 units. Sounds
good to me.

Yeah Parlays are sucker bets!! LOL!!!
NOT!!!!!!!!!

[Ganchrow]

Obviously there are many factors involved, none greater than the individual handicapper's ability to pick winners.

Indeed. But of course even a bettor with no actual handicapping skill might in theory still have an edge betting correlated parlays.

Assume a starting bank roll of $880. You bet on 2 games each day. Odds on both are -110. ... 50% chance you split (-$20)

(In the case of a split you'd of course only lose $10 ($100 win - $110 loss = $10 net loss) ... but your final values still hold.)

In the end, you lose total of $40. End bankroll is $840.

Placing 8 $110 bets, yes, your expectation is a loss of $40 ($880 * -4.55% = $40)

Now let's do parlays instead. Same bankroll of $880 ... In the end, you lose $78. End bankroll is $802.

Using true 2-team parlay odds off a -110 line set, yes your expectation placing 4 $220 parlays is a loss of about $78.

So indeed, if you're a coin flip bettor you'd do worse percentage-wise betting parlays than you would placing straight bets. (Of course if you're a coin flip bettor you'd do better still not placing ANY bets at all.)

But if you're let's say a break-even bettor, then your expectation is exactly the same whether you bet parlays or straight bets. And if you're a positive expectation bettor then you'd do better with parlays then you would with straight bets. I posted a primer on parlays describing this a few months back.

Now for someone like the OP who so clearly considers himself a positive expectancy bettor (as misguided as you or I might suspect him of being), it would make sense (from his perspective) to bet parlays. Of course if he's sufficiently overestimating his level of skill then he'll certainly lose more quickly using this tactic ... but at least he'd have been internally consistent in his reasoning.

Anyway though, good post ... I always do appreciate a little math.

[imgv94]

maritime and ganchrow are cool!!!

[tacomax]

I keep waiting for the punchline....

But it was sweet of imgv94 to invite his brother to the SBR forums.

[imgv94]

I have no idea who flamers is?

[tacomax]

Parlays are the way to go for baseball. If the White Sox could have kept the lead, I would have won $400 yesterday betting only $100.

I've highlighted the key word for you there.

Everyday in Baseball you should put together a 5 or 6 team parlay for $50/$100 and you could win $3,000-$4,000.

And by the same reasoning, everyday you should be able to go out and pull Jessica Alba and you could end up shagging her up the arse all night.

But in all liklihood, the reality is that you'll spend the night jacking off into a Kleenex.

[Ganchrow]

But in all liklihood, the reality is that you'll spend the night jacking off into a Kleenex.

Don't knock my hobbies.

[mlwitchking]

question for you all:
does pinnacle offer parlays or teasers on any sport?

Edit:
I found the answer.


New question:
How are parlays for baseball calculated for money lines?

[Ganchrow]

How are parlays calculated for money lines?

1. Convert odds to decimal
2. Take the product of all the decimal odds
3. Subtract 1

Example:
Parlaying two money lines of -110
Converting -110 to decimal odds gives us decimal odds of 1.91
Multiplying 1.91 x 1.91 ≈ 3.64
Subtracting 1 gives us 2.64.

This means that for every $1 bet on the parlay you'd receive $2.64 if it wins.

[bigboydan]

mlwitchking, in regards to your parlay being calculated. heres an easier way for you to do your figuring those out. pinnacle has a Multi-Way Calculator on there site. it's the 6th option down on the left hand side, under the change language option.