1. #1
    Illusion
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    Capping and Discussions 4/4

    Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

  2. #2
    mlwitchking
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    Should I take Yankees (Mussina) at +103 versus the A's (Harden)?
    I like the under for twins and blue jays, since halladay and santana are pitching. leaning red sox as well. waiting on result of yankees / a's game ...

  3. #3
    Razz
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    Well, Opening Day looks like Fave Day [at the time I write this the faves are 8-1 (the one dog that covered was Even money), with one game that went off flat], so hopefully I rebound on Day 2, which can't be a repeat of this.

    There is a game I love tomorrow - and I would be betting it big later in the season, but at this stage things seem so unpredictable that I'm being careful, especially after today's struggles. I'm personally waiting for 5Dimes 5 cent lines before making final decisions.

  4. #4
    Alamorich
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    No reason to start betting large just yet..I would wait till everybody gets through their rotations one time.

  5. #5
    juuso
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    Quote Originally Posted by Razz
    Well, Opening Day looks like Fave Day [at the time I write this the faves are 8-1 (the one dog that covered was Even money), with one game that went off flat], so hopefully I rebound on Day 2, which can't be a repeat of this.

    There is a game I love tomorrow - and I would be betting it big later in the season, but at this stage things seem so unpredictable that I'm being careful, especially after today's struggles. I'm personally waiting for 5Dimes 5 cent lines before making final decisions.
    Was a fave day. I got killed betting all those home dogs, but still think they were good bets from the value standpoint. Hit only Milwaukee -1.5. Glad i bet only small stakes. Will up my stakes more when the season progresses. Poor start for me, but i'm fully confident i will be in profit after 100 bets.

  6. #6
    Winston Smith
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    Something I picked up on last year:

    Freddy Garcia over his career:

    39-13 (.750), 3.39 ERA in day games.
    60-49 (~.550), 4.22 ERA in night games.


    Game time is 2 ET today.

  7. #7
    Willie Bee
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    Boston (T.Wakefield) at Texas (V.Padilla)

    Wakefield 2-4 with 6.00 ERA in last 7 starts v. Rangers; 2-3 in last 5 starts at The Ballpark That Dubya Built with 4.64 ERA. Wakefield is 7-2 in April the last three years against all opponents. Phil Nevin (.375, 2 HR), Kevin Mench (.357), Rod Barajas (.333) and Laynce Nix (.333) give Wakefield the most trouble.

    Padilla is 3-9 with a 4.42 ERA in 13 April starts from 2003-05. He’s made one start against Boston the last three years and was blasted, never getting out of the fourth frame. Many of those batters he faced in that game are no longer with the Red Sox. This is his first start in Arlington. Alex Cora (.462) and Mark Loretta (.357) have hit Padilla pretty well in the past, so it will be interesting to see if BoSox manager Terry Francona tries to work both of them into the lineup together.

    The over (10½) isn’t great value (-120), but it’s easy to envision 11 runs or more in this matchup.





    Florida (S.Mitre) at Houston (A.Pettitte)

    Mitre has made just one start against the Astros, and pitched a nice game, allowing a pair of runs in 7 innings with no decision. This is his first start at Arthur Andersen Memorial in Houston. Craig Biggio had two of the five hits Mitre allowed in that game. Preston Wilson is 2-for-2 against Mitre in his career with a tater. Mitre had a 4.29 ERA in 21 spring innings.

    Likewise, Pettitte has made just one start against Florida in the last three regular seasons, tossing 8 innings of 5-hit ball and earning a win. Pettitte is 12-8 in 25 career starts in Houston with a 3.06 ERA. With all of the youngsters on the FLA roster, Pettitte has only 18 official at bats against the present Marlins. Of those 18 AB, 10 have been against Wes Helms who has just one hit. Miguel Cabrera is 1-for-3 with a homer and Miguel Olivo is 1-for-2 with a homer. Pettitte tossed 14 innings this spring with a 1.93 ERA.

    Again, it’s not great value and offense isn’t that difficult to come by in Houston. But with these lineups and considering the opener yesterday between the same two teams, the under (8½, -120) would appear the way to go.

  8. #8
    Razz
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    Good stuff Willie Bee - I think that Rangers game will be pretty high-scoring, mostly from the home team hopefully.

  9. #9
    mlwitchking
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    indians win 8 to 2.

  10. #10
    Willie Bee
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    Four Left Coast Games...

    NY Yankees (M.Mussina) at Oakland (R.Harden)

    Mike Mussina is 2-0 in his last four starts against the A’s, sporting a rather nifty 2.17 ERA in 29 IP. He is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA his last two starts at Oakland. Frank Thomas, however, was not in those A’s lineups and he tears Moose up hitting .397 in 73 at bats with 9 doubles, 8 HR and 11 additional walks. Eric Chavez (.219) and Mark Kotsay (.211) might take some notes when they watch Big Hurt bat tonight.

    Rich Harden likes NetAss/McAfee/Charlie Finley Park as well, posting a 14-7 record with a 3.01 ERA in 34 games (32 starts, 206 IP). He apparently hasn’t faced the Yankees there too often since he owns a 5.55 ERA and 1-2 record in four career starts opposite the Pinstripers. The batters he needs to watch for are Derek Jeter (.417) and Hideki Matsui (.400). Harden has done remarkably well against Alex Rodriguez who is batting just a buck-54 when facing the young Oakland righty.

    Mussina was pounded this spring to the tune of a .313 batting average against, including 5 HR in less than 20 IP. Conversely, Harden was strong in spring action, holding the opposition to a .167 average. With the way NYY opened on offense, and Mussina’s spring troubles, I’m expecting more than 8½ runs where VIP is breaking their line right now.


    LA/Anaheim (J.Lackey) at Seattle (J.Pineiro)

    John Lackey has made 10 starts against Seattle the past three seasons with a 4-5 record and 3.78 ERA in those games, 2-3 (3.89) at Seattle. He is a notorious slow starter (6.66 ERA, .306 BAA in April). Ichiro Suzuki is below his norm against Lackey, hitting .289 in 45 AB. The three Mariners hitters to watch for tonight are Raul Ibañez (.375, 24 AB), Carl Everett (.462, 13 AB) and Richie Sexson (.375, 8 AB). Lackey did not have the best of springs (5.52 ERA, 19 IP). And the reports are he just signed a fat new contract that could bring in between $17-$27 million over the next 3-4 years. Perhaps he will relax and just pitch, or maybe he’ll get a bit lazy like others when they sign new deals guaranteeing such security.

    Joel Pineiro has made eight starts against the Angels the past few years, going 4-2 with a 4.42 ERA in 55 frames. He is 18-17 in 43 starts in Seattle during the same time with a 4.23 ERA in 281 IP. Pineiro owns Chone Figgins (.118, 17 AB), but is owned by Angels catcher Jose Molina (.455, 11 AB). Vladimir Guerrero and Garret Anderson have each taken Pineiro deep twice. Pineiro had about the same kind of spring as Lackey.

    I’m looking for Lackey to come out and bear down tonight to help the Angels take home a dubya.




    San Francisco (M.Morris) at San Diego (S.Estes)

    Matt Morris makes his Giants debut after being knocked around a bit in spring action (.306 BAA). He’s also been knocked around by the Padres the past few years to the tune of an 8.38 ERA in three starts that totaled less than 11 IP. Those starts came a while back, as this is his first go at Pet Food Park in San Diego. Among the hitters he’ll likely face tonight, the trio of Mike Piazza (.385, 26 AB), Brian Giles (.417, 2 HR, 24 AB) and Mike Cameron (.500, 12 AB) are his biggest worries.

    Veteran lefty Shawn Estes gets the nod for the Friars after a decent spring in which he whiffed 21 against eight free passes in 22 IP. He’s had some trouble with the Giants, his former team, in the past with a 5.48 ERA in four starts covering 21 frames. This will be his first start at San Diego’s new park. Jose Vizcaino (.444, 18 AB) has given Estes trouble, but will Viz start this game? Mike Matheny (.438, 16 AB) and Moises Alou (.316, 19 AB) have also spanked Estes around a bit. Barry Bonds is 3-for-8 (.375) with a walk against Estes.

    I like the Giants in this one based on value alone (+130). Hard for me to take the Padres at -150 with Estes on the hill.


    Atlanta (J.Smoltz) at Los Angeles (B.Penny)

    John Smoltz had a terrific spring and will be making just his second start against the Dodgers since 2003. Smoltz posted a 1.93 ERA with five saves in six save opportunities during that time covering 14 IP. Smoltz has had reasonable success against Jeff Kent over his career, limiting Kent to a .235 AVG in 51 AB with two of the 12 hits allowed going yard. Bill Mueller, the new LA 3B, has given Smoltz fits with a .474 AVG (19 AB). Kenny Lofton, Ricky Ledee, JD Drew and Jose Cruz Jr have a combined .064 AVG against Smoltz in 31 AB.

    Brad Penny has been hot-&-cold against the Braves since 2003, starting nine games with a 3-3 record and 5.56 ERA. In 17 career starts at Chavez Ravine, Penny is 6-4 with a 2.88 ERA over 103 IP. He simply has to keep Andruw Jones off the bases. Andruw has a .366 career average against Penny with 6 HR in 41 AB. The other Jones boy, Chipper, is hitting .314 off Penny with a homer in 35 AB. Edgar Renteria (.250) and Adam LaRoche (.200) are the easiest outs for Penny in this lineup.

    After the two teams combined for 21 runs last night in a rare offensive outbreak in LaLa Land, look for the runs to come way down tonight. I like Smoltz and the Braves, even if the value (-127) isn’t all that sweet.
    Last edited by Willie Bee; 04-04-06 at 04:16 PM.

  11. #11
    Illusion
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    Anybody here take Santana tonight?

  12. #12
    mlwitchking
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    yea. just about every gut feeling bet has gone astray. Boston losing 4-0 end 2. Minnesota losing 3-1 end 5. Indians beat White Sox 8-2. The only things going are Toronto and Minnesota still under 7 and the Angels haven't had an opportunity to lose because the game has not started yet. I'm not too happy because I didn't bet my gut yesterday and it went 6-0. I bet my gut today and start off poorly. Luckily, there is still time for boston to come back and minnesota to win 4-3.

  13. #13
    mlwitchking
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    toronto 4-1 now. minnesota has no offense and the ump is calling against santana. i hope the under holds. minnesota's bullpen is solid.

  14. #14
    mlwitchking
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    santana pulled with two outs in the sixth, toronto up 4-1, runners at 1st and 2nd. come on bullpen!

  15. #15
    Illusion
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    Now the bases are loaded. We need a stop right now!!!

  16. #16
    Illusion
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    Alright, we got out of it. Now we need some runs.

  17. #17
    imgv94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Illusion
    Anybody here take Santana tonight?
    I took Blue Jays tonight. Sorry!!!

  18. #18
    moses millsap
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    Capuano has a great pickoff move.

  19. #19
    Alamorich
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    Quote Originally Posted by mlwitchking
    santana pulled with two outs in the sixth, toronto up 4-1, runners at 1st and 2nd. come on bullpen!
    I'm on the under with ya! Go Under!

  20. #20
    Razz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alamorich
    I'm on the under with ya! Go Under!
    IMGV and I hope you push.

  21. #21
    mlwitchking
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    over has it. 6 to 3 going into the top of the ninth. lets recap for me: lost ml on white sox, lost under on twins, about to lose ml on twins, boston losing 7 to 1.
    So,
    going into my last pick (Angels ML), I am 0-2 (about to be 0-3) and not much hope. if i end up 2-3 it would be amazing.

  22. #22
    Willie Bee
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    Let's see, I discussed six games yesterday and went 1-4 with a push thanks to a rainout [roll eyes].

    I'm already establishing myself as someone to fade and we're just two full days into the season

  23. #23
    Illusion
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie Bee
    Let's see, I discussed six games yesterday and went 1-4 with a push thanks to a rainout [roll eyes].

    I'm already establishing myself as someone to fade and we're just two full days into the season
    I'm also off to a slow start. You will get it back Willie.

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