Notorious_Donk's MLB Props

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  • Notorious_Donk
    SBR MVP
    • 03-29-11
    • 2689

    #1
    Notorious_Donk's MLB Props
    This thread will consist of MLB props, such as 'score first', 'yes/no run in 1st inning', etc. I have been betting these props in the past, and I recorded my results on SBR from one month last season. Here they are...

    One month of 2011 Season: 39-21 (65% win pct.) +24.72 units


    Here is a link to my other MLB threads. The first one is from the 2011 season, which includes each wager and daily results. Second link is my previous thread for the 2012 season. I was planning on sticking to only first inning bets (hence the title name), but now I am focusing more on the 'score first' wagers so now I made this thread.

    Notorious_Donk's 1st Inning Statistics
    (2011 Season)

    1st Inning Wagering (Earlier 2012 Season)


    Best of luck to all!




  • Notorious_Donk
    SBR MVP
    • 03-29-11
    • 2689

    #2
    4/10/2012 Plays

    LAD scores first -130
    STL scores first -140
    NYM scores first +115
    Comment
    • Notorious_Donk
      SBR MVP
      • 03-29-11
      • 2689

      #3
      Addition:

      ARI scores first -135
      Comment
      • Notorious_Donk
        SBR MVP
        • 03-29-11
        • 2689

        #4
        4/10/2012 Results

        3-1 +1.22 units

        YTD Results

        7-5 -1.16 units


        I had a better night on the bases now that I am staying away from the 'yes/no run in first inning' prop and sticking with 'score first' prop. This loss today was only my second of the season, so let's hope this can stay consistent!
        Comment
        • Notorious_Donk
          SBR MVP
          • 03-29-11
          • 2689

          #5
          Waiting for all lines to come out.. leaning towards ARI, HOU, LAA, and LOS.
          Comment
          • Notorious_Donk
            SBR MVP
            • 03-29-11
            • 2689

            #6
            4/11/2012 Plays

            ARI scores first -130
            HOU scores first +120 [.5x]
            LAA scores first -170 [2x]
            LOS scores first +105 [.5x]


            I really like the Angels to score first today, and the bookies do also as it is juiced up to -170 or higher. Although it may not have much value at this line, this is still a very good play according to my filters so I will proceed with my 2-unit wager. D-Backs are one of the best scoring teams, as they have scored in 75% of first innings so far this season. For the two .5 unit plays, these are both still good underdog plays so I'm hoping at least one can win so we still come out positive. If both win, its a great day. BOL to all!
            Comment
            • Notorious_Donk
              SBR MVP
              • 03-29-11
              • 2689

              #7
              4/11/2012 Results

              3-1 +2.05 units

              YTD Results

              10-6 +0.89 units
              Comment
              • Notorious_Donk
                SBR MVP
                • 03-29-11
                • 2689

                #8
                4/12/2012 Plays
                MIL scores first -155
                ARI scores first -150
                Comment
                • Notorious_Donk
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-29-11
                  • 2689

                  #9
                  Addition:

                  Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 Innings -½ +105
                  Comment
                  • Notorious_Donk
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-29-11
                    • 2689

                    #10
                    4/12/2012 Results

                    0-3 -3.00 units

                    YTD Results

                    10-9 -2.11 units


                    Rough day on the bases for me. I felt very confident in those plays, seeing as the Brewers had Cy Young winner Greinke on the mound (who only allowed 4 hits against the Cardinals in seven shutout innings), and the Diamondbacks are one of the best teams to score early. I guess that's the way the cookie crumbles. Short memory
                    Comment
                    • Notorious_Donk
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-29-11
                      • 2689

                      #11
                      4/13/2012 Plays

                      Props Baseball 1919 TAM scores first -130*
                      vs BOS scores first



                      5Dimes didn't release the TAM/BOS line until about noon/1 PM so this is the earliest I could post the play. Its a winner, and there may be more to come tonight.

                      Comment
                      • Notorious_Donk
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-29-11
                        • 2689

                        #12
                        I'm thinking about starting up the series bets, as I did for a little bit in the past. To make this explanation short, take a team (who has a good scoring offense), against a team (who has a bad scoring offense) each game of the series. Bet 1-unit on the first game, if it wins you are done for this series (unless the next game is very valuable, that's up to the bettor). If the first game loses, bet 3-units on the second game. If this game wins, you are done for the series (again, that's up to the bettor), but if the second game loses, bet 6-units on the third wager.


                        EXAMPLE:

                        1st Game | Brewers -110

                        $100.00 to win 91.00 (approx.)


                        2nd Game | Brewers -110

                        $300.00 to win 273.00


                        3rd Game | Brewers -110

                        $600.00 to win 546.00


                        Therefore, if the first game wins, you win that certain amount ($91.00). If you lose the first and win the second, you win the second minus 1-unit ($273-$100=$173). If you lose the first and second wagers but win the third, you win the third amount minus 4-units ($546-300-100=$146).

                        This is the original system I created, but there have been many other offspring that have brought in profit as well. If you think you have any changes or improvements, please let me know.
                        Comment
                        • Notorious_Donk
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-29-11
                          • 2689

                          #13
                          Current Series':

                          Giants vs Pirates -- Game 1 WIN

                          Rangers @ Twins -- Game 1 LOSS

                          Dodgers vs Padres -- Game 1 WIN

                          Astros @ Marlins -- Game 1 WIN
                          Comment
                          • Notorious_Donk
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-29-11
                            • 2689

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Notorious_Donk
                            Current Series':

                            Giants vs Pirates -- Game 1 WIN

                            Rangers @ Twins -- Game 1 LOSS

                            Dodgers vs Padres -- Game 1 WIN

                            Astros @ Marlins -- Game 1 WIN

                            Series 1 = Giants vs Pirates WIN (Game 1)

                            Series 2 = Rangers @ Twins WIN (G2)

                            Series 3 = Dodgers vs Padres WIN (G1)

                            Series 4 = Astros​ @ Marlins WIN (G1)
                            Comment
                            • Gndias
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-23-11
                              • 1607

                              #15
                              i am doing the same for the 2nd year...and its looking good
                              Comment
                              • Notorious_Donk
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-29-11
                                • 2689

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Gndias
                                i am doing the same for the 2nd year...and its looking good
                                How has it been going so far?
                                Comment
                                • Gndias
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-23-11
                                  • 1607

                                  #17
                                  great..had a tremendous last year....but since we are in the beginning of the season i am still a little skeptical this year...you can see what happened on the Yankees first series this year (0-3) thank god i skipped that one, but the rest has been perfect,i am just a little worried about phillies tomorrow...i am on the 2nd loss
                                  Comment
                                  • Notorious_Donk
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-29-11
                                    • 2689

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Gndias
                                    great..had a tremendous last year....but since we are in the beginning of the season i am still a little skeptical this year...you can see what happened on the Yankees first series this year (0-3) thank god i skipped that one, but the rest has been perfect,i am just a little worried about phillies tomorrow...i am on the 2nd loss
                                    Ouch.. Phillies are not the team we usually see. I have not bet on them yet this year, and I don't see it happening because they are only a mediocre team at this point.
                                    Comment
                                    • Notorious_Donk
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-29-11
                                      • 2689

                                      #19
                                      Possible Upcoming Series:

                                      Cubs @ Miami

                                      -- Cubs have the second best offense in the league through the first four innings, while Marlins are the seventh worst. Chicago also had a better defense through first four, so this series looks a little intriguing to me.

                                      Giants vs Phillies

                                      -- Giants are back in San Fran with Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Cain set to take the mound. They have the third best offense through the first four innings and the Phillies have not done anything exciting on offense to get my recognition.

                                      Rockies vs Padres

                                      -- Colorado has one of the best offenses in the league, especially at home as they average 4 runs per game through the first four innings at Coors Field. Padres on the other hand, not so much. They average a mere 1.11 runs through first four innings.

                                      Diamondbacks vs Pirates

                                      -- Pittsburgh averages 0.38 runs through the first four innings. Fade them until they prove themselves.

                                      Yankees vs Twins

                                      -- Minnesota is second-worst in the league with 0.75 runs through the first four innings, and they haven't even scored a run when they are on the road.

                                      Cardinals vs Reds

                                      -- St. Louis has a high-powered offense, while Cincy does not. This 'score first' series will probably end in game 1 when Lohse takes the mound.
                                      Comment
                                      • Notorious_Donk
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-29-11
                                        • 2689

                                        #20
                                        MONDAY APRIL 16

                                        Giants vs Phillies
                                        Rockies vs Padres
                                        D-Backs vs Pirates
                                        Yankees vs Twins

                                        TUESDAY APRIL 17

                                        Cubs @ Miami
                                        Cardinals vs Reds
                                        Comment
                                        • Notorious_Donk
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-29-11
                                          • 2689

                                          #21
                                          Adding:

                                          Angels vs Athletics (starts Monday)
                                          Comment
                                          • Gndias
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-23-11
                                            • 1607

                                            #22
                                            man phillies paid off today but it was shaky...i was hanging on to my nuts till the end eheh; i am with you with on the yankees and the angels!!!!
                                            Comment
                                            • Notorious_Donk
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-29-11
                                              • 2689

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Gndias
                                              man phillies paid off today but it was shaky...i was hanging on to my nuts till the end eheh; i am with you with on the yankees and the angels!!!!
                                              Did you have PHI score first or win?

                                              And I like almost every series I posted previously. You should look into D-Backs as well.
                                              Comment
                                              • Gndias
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-23-11
                                                • 1607

                                                #24
                                                to win also took la/nyy no score on the 1st sweet day
                                                Comment
                                                • Notorious_Donk
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-29-11
                                                  • 2689

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Gndias
                                                  to win also took la/nyy no score on the 1st sweet day
                                                  Nice hits. I have a very good feeling about this 'score first series system'. I just hope it can live up to expectations!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Notorious_Donk
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-29-11
                                                    • 2689

                                                    #26
                                                    4/16/2012 Series Plays

                                                    NYY scores first -105
                                                    COL scores first +115
                                                    ARI scores first +110
                                                    LAA scores first -130
                                                    SFO scores first +120

                                                    [all 1-unit]
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Notorious_Donk
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-29-11
                                                      • 2689

                                                      #27
                                                      4/16/2012 Series Results
                                                      Yankees vs Twins L
                                                      Rockies vs Padres L
                                                      Diamondbacks vs Pirates L
                                                      Angels vs Athletics W (Gm. 1)
                                                      Giants vs Phillies L

                                                      Comment
                                                      • Sandwich
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 01-21-12
                                                        • 117

                                                        #28
                                                        Hey Donk,

                                                        Are you chasing Cubbies and Cardinals today also?

                                                        BOL
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Gndias
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-23-11
                                                          • 1607

                                                          #29
                                                          yankees tonight donk
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Notorious_Donk
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 03-29-11
                                                            • 2689

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Gndias
                                                            yankees tonight donk
                                                            I agree, but lets not jinx it.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Notorious_Donk
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-29-11
                                                              • 2689

                                                              #31
                                                              Yesterday's record doesn't look good, but focus on the positive side. I'm almost positive that all of these teams will score first in at least one of three games, so we still have profit ahead of us. Keep grinding.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Notorious_Donk
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-29-11
                                                                • 2689

                                                                #32
                                                                4/17/2012 Series Plays

                                                                Game 2:

                                                                NYY scores first -135 [3x]
                                                                COL scores first +120 [3x]
                                                                ARI scores first -110 [3x]
                                                                SFO scores first +100 [3x]

                                                                Game 1:

                                                                CUB scores first -110
                                                                STL scores first +110



                                                                Comment
                                                                • Notorious_Donk
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-29-11
                                                                  • 2689

                                                                  #33
                                                                  WTF Kennedy..
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Gndias
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-23-11
                                                                    • 1607

                                                                    #34
                                                                    damn had yankees to score first too
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Notorious_Donk
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-29-11
                                                                      • 2689

                                                                      #35
                                                                      4/17/2012 Results

                                                                      Yankees LOSS -3 units
                                                                      Rockies WIN +3.6 units
                                                                      D-Backs LOSS -3 units
                                                                      Giants WIN +3 units

                                                                      Cubs WIN +.91 units
                                                                      Cardinals WIN +1.1 units

                                                                      Daily Record: 4-2 +2.61 units
                                                                      Comment
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