Want expert opinions on detailed pitching question....

[gamblingisfun]

Now let's say that a pitcher has a 3.00era on the season so far, a 5.00era on the road, a 2.50era at home, and a 6.00era in his last 3 starts, and a 2.00era after his last 10 starts. (i just used random numbers for the sake of this example, so they may not be mathematically possible) My question is: If I'm trying to figure out how this guy is going to do in his next start, ignoring all other factors except his era in different situations, how would I weight these criteria? I'm thinking like:

season:15%
home/away: 20%
last 3: 45%
last 7: 20%

I'm mainly trying to figure it out so I can find starters who are on the rise and doing good as of late, and find the ones that are doing bad recently so I can go against them. I weighted it more heavily towards the recent starts so past starts wont affect it too much. If some guy threw 3 perfect games to start the season then went on to get rocked in his next 5 starts, I wouldn't want my stats to weigh too heavily on the first 3 because that would lead me to think that he will revert back. Basically I'm trying to ride a good pitcher and fade the bad one, because even good pitchers have bad stretches, and vice versa, and those are the times to fade a publicly favored one, and tail a publicly bad one.

Any thoughts or opinions?
Maybe someone with far more knowledge than me about the behaviors of pitchers over the course of a season and home/road splits?

[antifoil]

go to fangraphs.com and read about fip, xfip, babip and the like if you truly want to learn about a pitchers performance and what to expect from a pitcher in the future.

[gamblingisfun]

I do use fangraphs to find a lot of info, but its just hard to quantify that super detailed info into hard numbers.

[HoulihansTX]

Do not pay attention to ERA, period.

GL finding the Holy Grail.

[DSSCA]

No offense at all fellow poster, but you're best bet is to WATCH as much baseball as you can and catch pitchers when you feel they are hot and have value. Numbers help, but you have to be able to cap your own games and use others info as just icing on the cake. Maybe look more into opposing batting avg rather than ERA. Or better yet, what kind of run support is your ace getting? BOL!

[gamblingisfun]

I dont pay attention to ERA, I use other better pitching stats. I was just curious if anyone could help me with weighting each specific category. The same could be said about hitting stats and how they do in their last 3, last week, home/road, etc. I just used starters as an example. Batting teams are easier to weight, teams usually hit well together or slump together and its a whole group of guys so one doesnt always hold back the rest, but with a starter its one guy and different things can affect him and how he does over the course of a season.

[agendaman]

c/o gambling is fun /not to be negative or ridicule you BUT i am a mathematician /msc./i have crunched nos./tendencies /graphs/equations /etc./in long run /wont work/you will lose all your money /only possible chance is selective situational betting/ but how many of us can go say 4 days w/o a bet /anyway my bets for mon. 04/09/12 /angels texas chisox gl buddy

[gamblingisfun]

I had just used era as an example, i actually break down the stats of each pitcher and what he does, hits, walks, runs, etc with my own formulas to find an expected value of what he's responsible for on the field, and I do the same for offense, and I match the values together to create an idea of what should happen when two teams face off. I just wanted to maybe bounce some ideas around as to how important each thing is to us cappers. Like i know people love how a starter did in his last 3 starts, as well as how a team has done in their last 10 games. I think I've weighted my categories appropriately, but I'm a little self biased lol.

[gamblingisfun]

Yeah I figure that it may not work in the long run, but I just want to know for sure for myself. I have to learn the hard way so it'll stick better. That's how I know to give up on chasing... It's my last stab at having that could be classified as a system that could work.

[floridagolfer]

You're trying to predict the future; good luck with that.

[rkelly110]

Like you said, don't pay attention to the ERA, instead look at their win/ loss record.

Start betting to win on a pitcher who's lost 2 in a row. You'll be surprised at the outcome.
If they are the dog, bet the +RL. Fave, ML. Some days you're the bug, other days you're
the windshield. Keep that in mind. There are a lot of dogs that have won SU using the above strategy.

The same for teams who lost 2 in a row, especially in a series. Teams don't like being
shutout.