Parks factor into MLB Over/Under betting
It's a simple fact, and has been for a long time, that some major league stadiums are kinder to pitchers' numbers and some are hitters havens. And part of what goes into handicapping the parks has as much to do with weather as it does outfield dimensions and pitching staffs. Leading the way on the Overs is AT&T Park in San Francisco while Petco Park, home to the San Diego Padres, tops the list for the Unders.
If you want to enjoy a quick baseball game, try being a San Diego Padres fan. You won’t have to worry about anyone “clogging up the basepaths” at Petco Park, where teams score only 78.3 percent as often as they do at the average stadium. Thursday’s 3-2 matinee victory over the Milwaukee Brewers was completed in two hours and 25 minutes – seven minutes shorter than The Dark Knight. And at 71-percent capacity, there wasn’t any problem getting a seat at the ballpark.
What makes Petco so special? It helps that the Padres have stud pitchers like Jake Peavy, who faced just 27 Milwaukee batters over seven innings. There’s also the park’s spacious outfield, with its 402-foot power alleys, both left and right. And there’s the warm West Coast air, which makes scoring even more difficult at Dodger Stadium (76.7 percent) than in San Diego.
Sharp handicappers are all over these park factors. They know that the Under is 38-23 at Petco Park and 36-26 at Chavez Ravine (pushes not included). But do the park factors always match up with the totals? Nope. The betting public is fully aware that Boston’s Fenway Park is a hitter’s paradise, cranking out runs at a 114-percent clip. The betting odds are pretty tight as a result on the totals for Red Sox home games: the over/under is dead even at 28-28.
With that in mind, here are the top three over and under ballparks (outdoor games only) in the majors this year, with their park factors for runs scored.
Over
1. AT&T Park, San Francisco (33-25, 108.6%)
2. Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Texas (30-24, 109%)
3. Comerica Park, Detroit (29-24, 109.8%)
Under
1. Petco Park, San Diego (38-23, 78.3%)
2. McAfee Coliseum, Oakland (34-24, 92.3%)
3. Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles (36-26, 76.7%)
Honorable mention goes to the Rogers Centre in Toronto, where the Under is a sizzling 19-10 when they open up the dome. Keep your eye on the weather forecast.
Coming up this weekend...
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Game 1: Friday, 8:05 p.m. Eastern
TB: Matt Garza
TEX: Kevin Millwood
Game 2: Saturday, 8:05 p.m.
TB: Edwin Jackson
TEX: Matt Harrison
Game 3: Sunday, 8:05 p.m.
TB: Scott Kazmir
TEX: Vicente Padilla
The Ballpark in Arlington has been known as a “bandbox” ever since it opened in 1993. There isn’t a lot of room in foul territory, and there’s a particularly inviting 325-foot short porch in right field. But a large part of the success the Over is enjoying in Texas has to do with the quality of the Rangers hitters and pitchers:
Texas has had this kind of split for a while, but this is ridiculous. Can we blame the ballpark, or is the front office that feeble at acquiring good pitchers? Well, the Rangers have a 5.18 team ERA at home and 5.61 on the road, so that pretty much answers that question.
The trick with the Rangers is that their hitting is so potent, it balances out their utter lack of pitching prowess. Texas is 61-61 this year for a profit of 12.21 units. Vicente Padilla (4.85 ERA, 4.77 xFIP) has been competent enough to lead the Rangers to a 17-6 record, raking in 15 units to lead the majors in earnings. Rookie Matt Harrison (7.07 ERA, 6.26 xFIP) has been lit up like a Roman candle, but Texas is 5-2 in his starts for a quick 4.3 units. The over is 6-1 in those seven contests.
As for the Rays, they just keep winning. They’ve improved to 73-47 (+21.52 units), still three games up on Boston for the lead in the American League East. And Tampa has won three out of four since Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford were both put on the DL. Playing the lesser teams in the AL West will do a lot for your won-loss record.
The Rays and Rangers are each priced at -105 for Friday’s opener, with a total of 10½ runs.
It's a simple fact, and has been for a long time, that some major league stadiums are kinder to pitchers' numbers and some are hitters havens. And part of what goes into handicapping the parks has as much to do with weather as it does outfield dimensions and pitching staffs. Leading the way on the Overs is AT&T Park in San Francisco while Petco Park, home to the San Diego Padres, tops the list for the Unders.
If you want to enjoy a quick baseball game, try being a San Diego Padres fan. You won’t have to worry about anyone “clogging up the basepaths” at Petco Park, where teams score only 78.3 percent as often as they do at the average stadium. Thursday’s 3-2 matinee victory over the Milwaukee Brewers was completed in two hours and 25 minutes – seven minutes shorter than The Dark Knight. And at 71-percent capacity, there wasn’t any problem getting a seat at the ballpark.
What makes Petco so special? It helps that the Padres have stud pitchers like Jake Peavy, who faced just 27 Milwaukee batters over seven innings. There’s also the park’s spacious outfield, with its 402-foot power alleys, both left and right. And there’s the warm West Coast air, which makes scoring even more difficult at Dodger Stadium (76.7 percent) than in San Diego.
Sharp handicappers are all over these park factors. They know that the Under is 38-23 at Petco Park and 36-26 at Chavez Ravine (pushes not included). But do the park factors always match up with the totals? Nope. The betting public is fully aware that Boston’s Fenway Park is a hitter’s paradise, cranking out runs at a 114-percent clip. The betting odds are pretty tight as a result on the totals for Red Sox home games: the over/under is dead even at 28-28.
With that in mind, here are the top three over and under ballparks (outdoor games only) in the majors this year, with their park factors for runs scored.
Over
1. AT&T Park, San Francisco (33-25, 108.6%)
2. Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Texas (30-24, 109%)
3. Comerica Park, Detroit (29-24, 109.8%)
Under
1. Petco Park, San Diego (38-23, 78.3%)
2. McAfee Coliseum, Oakland (34-24, 92.3%)
3. Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles (36-26, 76.7%)
Honorable mention goes to the Rogers Centre in Toronto, where the Under is a sizzling 19-10 when they open up the dome. Keep your eye on the weather forecast.
Coming up this weekend...
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Game 1: Friday, 8:05 p.m. Eastern
TB: Matt Garza
TEX: Kevin Millwood
Game 2: Saturday, 8:05 p.m.
TB: Edwin Jackson
TEX: Matt Harrison
Game 3: Sunday, 8:05 p.m.
TB: Scott Kazmir
TEX: Vicente Padilla
The Ballpark in Arlington has been known as a “bandbox” ever since it opened in 1993. There isn’t a lot of room in foul territory, and there’s a particularly inviting 325-foot short porch in right field. But a large part of the success the Over is enjoying in Texas has to do with the quality of the Rangers hitters and pitchers:
- Pitching: 5.41 ERA (30th of 30 MLB teams)
- Hitting: .813 OPS (1st)
Texas has had this kind of split for a while, but this is ridiculous. Can we blame the ballpark, or is the front office that feeble at acquiring good pitchers? Well, the Rangers have a 5.18 team ERA at home and 5.61 on the road, so that pretty much answers that question.
The trick with the Rangers is that their hitting is so potent, it balances out their utter lack of pitching prowess. Texas is 61-61 this year for a profit of 12.21 units. Vicente Padilla (4.85 ERA, 4.77 xFIP) has been competent enough to lead the Rangers to a 17-6 record, raking in 15 units to lead the majors in earnings. Rookie Matt Harrison (7.07 ERA, 6.26 xFIP) has been lit up like a Roman candle, but Texas is 5-2 in his starts for a quick 4.3 units. The over is 6-1 in those seven contests.
As for the Rays, they just keep winning. They’ve improved to 73-47 (+21.52 units), still three games up on Boston for the lead in the American League East. And Tampa has won three out of four since Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford were both put on the DL. Playing the lesser teams in the AL West will do a lot for your won-loss record.
The Rays and Rangers are each priced at -105 for Friday’s opener, with a total of 10½ runs.