Yankees depth tested in series at Angels
The New York Yankees took another hit this past week when young hurler Joba Chamberlain was added to their list of injured stars that already includes Chien-Ming Wang and Hideki Matsui. That won't help at all as they prepare to take on the Angels in Anaheim this weekend. Meanwhile in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals take on their rivals in Chicago with the Cubs sporting the top record in the NL.
Apparently it’s already time to start talking Cy Young Award. That was the buzz for Mike Mussina Thursday night after he pitched seven innings in a 3-0 shutout of the Texas Rangers.
No point in getting too flustered over it, but this is another case of baseball writers getting too wrapped up in wins. Mussina has 15 of them to tie Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians for the American League lead, but a “win” is something that takes a lot more than a starting pitcher to happen. Mussina has been getting a healthy 4.58 runs per game from the Yankees. Lee, for that matter, has 5.18 Cleveland runs per game to work with. That’s quite a cushion.
Seamheads are working hard to come up with some pitching stats that actually evaluate the pitcher. It’s not easy – they tend to get measured by their failure to prevent runs, as opposed to things they actually control, like speed and location. The handiest tool in common use thus far, and one that I’ve been using in this space, is adjusted Fielding Independent Percentage (xFIP). By that measure, Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay is the AL’s best at 3.11. Lee is third at 3.39, and Mussina is seventh at 3.65, percentage points behind teammate Andy Pettitte.
Most of the writers who vote for the Cy Young would sooner debate the merits of Halladay’s facial hair than his xFIP. Fantastic. The ignorance that they espouse and pass on to their readers keeps handicappers flush with cash.
Cardinals at Cubs
Game 1: Friday, 2:20 p.m. Eastern
STL: Braden Looper
CHC: Ted Lilly
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
STL: Todd Wellemeyer
CHC: Carlos Zambrano
Game 3: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. (ESPN)
STL: Chris Carpenter
CHC: Ryan Dempster
The Cardinals stood pat at the trade deadline, in part because they knew they had Chris Carpenter due to come off the disabled list. He had three consecutive strong years for St. Louis, none stronger than his 2005 Cy Young season (2.83 ERA, 3.05 xFIP), before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Carpenter has pitched twice since coming back, allowing one run in nine innings of work.
Carpenter’s return is crucial for a team that is 15th in the majors with a 4.27 team ERA. The Cubs are sixth in that category at 3.80, and climbing up the rankings every time Rich Harden (2.10 ERA, 2.41 xFIP in five games) starts for his new team. St. Louis avoids Harden on this trip, but there’s no avoiding Carlos Zambrano, the team’s ace (2.76 ERA, 4.47 xFIP) and death to Cardinals hitters. They have a combined .637 OPS against the Big Z.
Yankees at Angels
Game 1: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET
NYY: Ian Kennedy
LAA: Jered Weaver
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
NYY: Dan Giese
LAA: John Lackey
Game 3: Sunday, 3:55 p.m.
NYY: Andy Pettitte
LAA: Joe Saunders
Just when you think the Yankees are back in control, they lose another key player. Joba Chamberlain (2.63 ERA, 3.24 xFIP) was having a Cy-quality season before coming out of the lineup with rotator cuff tendinitis. He hasn’t gone on the DL yet, but he will miss Saturday’s start on orders from Dr. James Andrews. Seeing Andrews’ name alongside “rotator cuff” should give Yankees fans the shivers.
Giese (2.51 ERA, 4.86 xFIP) makes his third start for the Yankees after a couple of fill-ins back in June. Those didn’t go too well, but Giese has allowed only two runs in 14.1 innings of relief work since. Ian Kennedy (5.14 ERA, 4.40 xFIP) is also getting another crack at the rotation after spending some time in the minors. Both pitchers should have a relatively easy time against the Angels, who are 21st in the majors with a .727 OPS. However, Los Angeles is seventh overall with a 3.86 ERA, and Lackey (3.10 ERA, 3.81 xFIP) and Saunders (3.03 ERA, 4.71 xFIP) are the best the Halos have to offer right now.
The New York Yankees took another hit this past week when young hurler Joba Chamberlain was added to their list of injured stars that already includes Chien-Ming Wang and Hideki Matsui. That won't help at all as they prepare to take on the Angels in Anaheim this weekend. Meanwhile in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals take on their rivals in Chicago with the Cubs sporting the top record in the NL.
Apparently it’s already time to start talking Cy Young Award. That was the buzz for Mike Mussina Thursday night after he pitched seven innings in a 3-0 shutout of the Texas Rangers.
No point in getting too flustered over it, but this is another case of baseball writers getting too wrapped up in wins. Mussina has 15 of them to tie Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians for the American League lead, but a “win” is something that takes a lot more than a starting pitcher to happen. Mussina has been getting a healthy 4.58 runs per game from the Yankees. Lee, for that matter, has 5.18 Cleveland runs per game to work with. That’s quite a cushion.
Seamheads are working hard to come up with some pitching stats that actually evaluate the pitcher. It’s not easy – they tend to get measured by their failure to prevent runs, as opposed to things they actually control, like speed and location. The handiest tool in common use thus far, and one that I’ve been using in this space, is adjusted Fielding Independent Percentage (xFIP). By that measure, Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay is the AL’s best at 3.11. Lee is third at 3.39, and Mussina is seventh at 3.65, percentage points behind teammate Andy Pettitte.
Most of the writers who vote for the Cy Young would sooner debate the merits of Halladay’s facial hair than his xFIP. Fantastic. The ignorance that they espouse and pass on to their readers keeps handicappers flush with cash.
Cardinals at Cubs
Game 1: Friday, 2:20 p.m. Eastern
STL: Braden Looper
CHC: Ted Lilly
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
STL: Todd Wellemeyer
CHC: Carlos Zambrano
Game 3: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. (ESPN)
STL: Chris Carpenter
CHC: Ryan Dempster
The Cardinals stood pat at the trade deadline, in part because they knew they had Chris Carpenter due to come off the disabled list. He had three consecutive strong years for St. Louis, none stronger than his 2005 Cy Young season (2.83 ERA, 3.05 xFIP), before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Carpenter has pitched twice since coming back, allowing one run in nine innings of work.
Carpenter’s return is crucial for a team that is 15th in the majors with a 4.27 team ERA. The Cubs are sixth in that category at 3.80, and climbing up the rankings every time Rich Harden (2.10 ERA, 2.41 xFIP in five games) starts for his new team. St. Louis avoids Harden on this trip, but there’s no avoiding Carlos Zambrano, the team’s ace (2.76 ERA, 4.47 xFIP) and death to Cardinals hitters. They have a combined .637 OPS against the Big Z.
Yankees at Angels
Game 1: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET
NYY: Ian Kennedy
LAA: Jered Weaver
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
NYY: Dan Giese
LAA: John Lackey
Game 3: Sunday, 3:55 p.m.
NYY: Andy Pettitte
LAA: Joe Saunders
Just when you think the Yankees are back in control, they lose another key player. Joba Chamberlain (2.63 ERA, 3.24 xFIP) was having a Cy-quality season before coming out of the lineup with rotator cuff tendinitis. He hasn’t gone on the DL yet, but he will miss Saturday’s start on orders from Dr. James Andrews. Seeing Andrews’ name alongside “rotator cuff” should give Yankees fans the shivers.
Giese (2.51 ERA, 4.86 xFIP) makes his third start for the Yankees after a couple of fill-ins back in June. Those didn’t go too well, but Giese has allowed only two runs in 14.1 innings of relief work since. Ian Kennedy (5.14 ERA, 4.40 xFIP) is also getting another crack at the rotation after spending some time in the minors. Both pitchers should have a relatively easy time against the Angels, who are 21st in the majors with a .727 OPS. However, Los Angeles is seventh overall with a 3.86 ERA, and Lackey (3.10 ERA, 3.81 xFIP) and Saunders (3.03 ERA, 4.71 xFIP) are the best the Halos have to offer right now.