Phillies better their odds, acquire Blanton
With the second half underway and a key weekend series against their NL East rivals from Florida, Philadelphia increased their chances for the postseason in a trade trade with Oakland on Thursday to acquire starting pitcher Joe Blanton. The husky right-hander's only adjustment should be getting used to a solid offense behind him now as the Phillies rank fourth in the majors scoring over five runs per game.
And the dominoes keep on tumbling.
I was about to regale you with tales of Richie Sexson and Tony Clark, but the Oakland Athletics are at it again. They’ve reportedly followed up the Rich Harden trade by sending Joe Blanton to the Philadelphia Phillies for three prospects: second baseman Adrian Cardenas, pitcher Josh Outman and outfielder Matthew Spencer. You know you can’t go wrong with a pitcher named “Outman,” although Cardenas is the coup in this transaction.
The A’s are still in contention in the American League West, but GM Billy Beane knows how to do business with a limited payroll. As for the Phillies, they added a solid right-handed starter, albeit one who’s prone to running hot and cold. Blanton is cold this year at 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA, yet his competitive 4.45 xFIP suggests he’ll do just fine against National League batters, especially with a Phillies team that can actually hit the damn ball.
Blanton’s arrival could throw the projected starting rotation for this weekend’s series with the Florida Marlins out of whack. We’ll proceed with what we’ve got for now – keep an eye on the schedule for changes and be prepared to pounce on the betting odds.
Red Sox at Angels
Game 1: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET
BOS: Clay Buchholz
LAA: John Lackey
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
BOS: Josh Beckett
LAA: Joe Saunders
Game 3: Sunday, 6:00 p.m. (ESPN)
BOS: Tim Wakefield
LAA: Jered Weaver
There are strong “fade” tendencies for both teams in this series. We’ve been harping on the Halos all year for the difference between their actual win-loss record (currently 57-38, tops in the AL) and their pythagorean record (50-45). Los Angeles is bound to start losing more of those tight games; closer Francisco Rodriguez (2.36 ERA, 4.06 xFIP) has 38 saves already in 45 appearances.
Boston, meanwhile, seems lost without the Green Monster. The Red Sox are 21-29 on the road for a loss of 10.31 units, and their OPS drops from .851 at Fenway to a more human .767 in away games. That’ll make life tougher for Clay Buchholz (5.70 ERA, 3.77 xFIP), but he’s due for some good “luck” after the Sox lost seven of his nine starts and fell 7.27 units in the red. Buchholz is having trouble with bases on balls – five in each of his last two starts.
The Angels are -155 favorites in the series opener with a total of eight runs. Betting lines were open earlier than usual because of the All-Star break and Thursday’s thin MLB schedule.
Phillies at Marlins
Game 1: Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET
PHI: Jamie Moyer
FLA: Ricky Nolasco
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
PHI: Kyle Kendrick
FLA: Scott Olsen
Game 3: Sunday, 1:10 p.m.
PHI: Cole Hamels
FLA: Andrew Miller
The Phillies ended the first half of the season in first place in the NL East at 52-44, but they found themselves just a half-game up on the Mets after they won nine in a row. The Marlins are 1.5 games off the pace at 50-45. However, run differentials suggest Florida is due for a correction. Here are the first-half pythagorean records for all three teams:
PHI: 56-40
NYM: 52-43
FLA: 45-50
The Marlins have been at or near the top of the division despite being outscored by 22 runs up to this point. They may regress, but much of this discrepancy falls at the feet of Andrew Miller (5.63 ERA, 4.50 xFIP). He was unusually awful in his last two starts, which Florida lost by a combined score of 29-2. Miller’s chances don’t look much better on Sunday against All-Star snubee Cole Hamels (3.15 ERA, 3.66 xFIP). He’s guided the Phillies to 13 wins in 20 starts, but chalk has held him down to a mere 0.71 units of earnings.
Oddsmakers have priced the Marlins at -120 for Game 1 with a total of nine runs. Again, don’t forget about Blanton’s potential effect on this series.
With the second half underway and a key weekend series against their NL East rivals from Florida, Philadelphia increased their chances for the postseason in a trade trade with Oakland on Thursday to acquire starting pitcher Joe Blanton. The husky right-hander's only adjustment should be getting used to a solid offense behind him now as the Phillies rank fourth in the majors scoring over five runs per game.
And the dominoes keep on tumbling.
I was about to regale you with tales of Richie Sexson and Tony Clark, but the Oakland Athletics are at it again. They’ve reportedly followed up the Rich Harden trade by sending Joe Blanton to the Philadelphia Phillies for three prospects: second baseman Adrian Cardenas, pitcher Josh Outman and outfielder Matthew Spencer. You know you can’t go wrong with a pitcher named “Outman,” although Cardenas is the coup in this transaction.
The A’s are still in contention in the American League West, but GM Billy Beane knows how to do business with a limited payroll. As for the Phillies, they added a solid right-handed starter, albeit one who’s prone to running hot and cold. Blanton is cold this year at 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA, yet his competitive 4.45 xFIP suggests he’ll do just fine against National League batters, especially with a Phillies team that can actually hit the damn ball.
Blanton’s arrival could throw the projected starting rotation for this weekend’s series with the Florida Marlins out of whack. We’ll proceed with what we’ve got for now – keep an eye on the schedule for changes and be prepared to pounce on the betting odds.
Red Sox at Angels
Game 1: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET
BOS: Clay Buchholz
LAA: John Lackey
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
BOS: Josh Beckett
LAA: Joe Saunders
Game 3: Sunday, 6:00 p.m. (ESPN)
BOS: Tim Wakefield
LAA: Jered Weaver
There are strong “fade” tendencies for both teams in this series. We’ve been harping on the Halos all year for the difference between their actual win-loss record (currently 57-38, tops in the AL) and their pythagorean record (50-45). Los Angeles is bound to start losing more of those tight games; closer Francisco Rodriguez (2.36 ERA, 4.06 xFIP) has 38 saves already in 45 appearances.
Boston, meanwhile, seems lost without the Green Monster. The Red Sox are 21-29 on the road for a loss of 10.31 units, and their OPS drops from .851 at Fenway to a more human .767 in away games. That’ll make life tougher for Clay Buchholz (5.70 ERA, 3.77 xFIP), but he’s due for some good “luck” after the Sox lost seven of his nine starts and fell 7.27 units in the red. Buchholz is having trouble with bases on balls – five in each of his last two starts.
The Angels are -155 favorites in the series opener with a total of eight runs. Betting lines were open earlier than usual because of the All-Star break and Thursday’s thin MLB schedule.
Phillies at Marlins
Game 1: Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET
PHI: Jamie Moyer
FLA: Ricky Nolasco
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
PHI: Kyle Kendrick
FLA: Scott Olsen
Game 3: Sunday, 1:10 p.m.
PHI: Cole Hamels
FLA: Andrew Miller
The Phillies ended the first half of the season in first place in the NL East at 52-44, but they found themselves just a half-game up on the Mets after they won nine in a row. The Marlins are 1.5 games off the pace at 50-45. However, run differentials suggest Florida is due for a correction. Here are the first-half pythagorean records for all three teams:
PHI: 56-40
NYM: 52-43
FLA: 45-50
The Marlins have been at or near the top of the division despite being outscored by 22 runs up to this point. They may regress, but much of this discrepancy falls at the feet of Andrew Miller (5.63 ERA, 4.50 xFIP). He was unusually awful in his last two starts, which Florida lost by a combined score of 29-2. Miller’s chances don’t look much better on Sunday against All-Star snubee Cole Hamels (3.15 ERA, 3.66 xFIP). He’s guided the Phillies to 13 wins in 20 starts, but chalk has held him down to a mere 0.71 units of earnings.
Oddsmakers have priced the Marlins at -120 for Game 1 with a total of nine runs. Again, don’t forget about Blanton’s potential effect on this series.