I'm not saying these pitchers are automatic fades in every situation. However, with the exception of Wellemeyer, they're all at or near the top of the league in terms of their ROI. As the market continues to adjust and their performance begins to regress, which I suspect it may, I believe the following are all strong candidates to produce a negative ROI going forward.
Todd Wellemeyer: His demise has already started -- 7.66 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in his L5 starts, in which the Cardinals are 0-5, and I don't see anything that will change over the next 2+ months. Pitching coach Dave Duncan can do wonders with his staff, but asking a 30-year old career journeyman who's in his first full season starting to duplicate his 7-win, sub 1.30 WHIP first half is too much.
Andy Sonnanstine: His 10 wins is in no way indicative of the way he's pitched. The league's hitting .296 against him, and despite leading his team in wins, he's the clear No. 5 starter on the Rays. Percival's already gone down, and count me in as one who believes it's a near certainty TB's bullpen doesn't hold its position as the No. 5 unit in baseball for the entire season.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Been the single most overvalued pitcher in baseball since the moment he arrived from Japan. Given his inability to throw strikes, it's remarkable that Boston's 13-3 in his 16 starts. However, he's been the beneficiary of some remarkable fortune to attain his 10-1 mark. His command problems and failure to pitch deep into games are both likely to hurt the Sox more this season with the incompetence of their bullpen, which has gone from the strength of the team to iits biggest weakness that features exactly 1 member (Papelbon) who's been steady. Daisuke's continually priced as an ace, something he surely isn't.
Armando Galarraga: Probably been the Tigers' MVP and the biggest reason they're not completely buried in the AL Central race. However, his stuff is nothing special and he has no track record at this level to suggest his success to this point is anything other than big-league hitters being slow to adjust to their first time seeing him. His performance should diminish significantly as he goes through the league for a second and third time.
Kyle Lohse: Interesting case here in that Lohse was a guy who was looking for a long-term deal in the off-season, only to have no such luck before eventually settling for a one-year deal with the Cards for seemingly below market value. Given that he's once again in a contract year, it comes as little surprise he's put forth the best and most consistent 3+ months of his career. Lohse was once a big prospect with the Twins, only to turn in a largely disappointing career to this point considering his talents. Are we now to believe that at 29 he's finally put it all together and is capable of repeating his 11 win first half? I say no.
Edinson Volquez: Been one of the three best pitchers in baseball to this point. He's already tailed off a bit the last month, and I have concerns over how he'll respond to his first full season pitching in the bigs. He's pitching in one of the worst pitchers' parks in baseball, and his performance won't need to fall off too much to make him completely undeserving of the heavy price tags he's sure to command in the second half.
Jose Contreras: Seems to be past a stretch in May in which he was the best pitcher in baseball. Even with his recent slide, his overall numbers are largely impressive. This comes after being arguably the worst starter in baseball for a good portion of '07, which ultimately lead to him being temporarily bumped from the rotation. Given his age (at least 37), his outlook going forward is probably somewhere between his performance last season and his numbers thus far in '08.
Ryan Dempster: Similar to Lohse in that he's pitching the best of his career at a relatively late stage of his career. He was once a very good starter early in his career with the Marlins, but even in making the All-Star team in '00, he's never matched the numbers he's achieved so far this season. Dempster being overvalued going forward is further highlighted by his place on a public darling like the Cubs, a team that's routinely overpriced.
Todd Wellemeyer: His demise has already started -- 7.66 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in his L5 starts, in which the Cardinals are 0-5, and I don't see anything that will change over the next 2+ months. Pitching coach Dave Duncan can do wonders with his staff, but asking a 30-year old career journeyman who's in his first full season starting to duplicate his 7-win, sub 1.30 WHIP first half is too much.
Andy Sonnanstine: His 10 wins is in no way indicative of the way he's pitched. The league's hitting .296 against him, and despite leading his team in wins, he's the clear No. 5 starter on the Rays. Percival's already gone down, and count me in as one who believes it's a near certainty TB's bullpen doesn't hold its position as the No. 5 unit in baseball for the entire season.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Been the single most overvalued pitcher in baseball since the moment he arrived from Japan. Given his inability to throw strikes, it's remarkable that Boston's 13-3 in his 16 starts. However, he's been the beneficiary of some remarkable fortune to attain his 10-1 mark. His command problems and failure to pitch deep into games are both likely to hurt the Sox more this season with the incompetence of their bullpen, which has gone from the strength of the team to iits biggest weakness that features exactly 1 member (Papelbon) who's been steady. Daisuke's continually priced as an ace, something he surely isn't.
Armando Galarraga: Probably been the Tigers' MVP and the biggest reason they're not completely buried in the AL Central race. However, his stuff is nothing special and he has no track record at this level to suggest his success to this point is anything other than big-league hitters being slow to adjust to their first time seeing him. His performance should diminish significantly as he goes through the league for a second and third time.
Kyle Lohse: Interesting case here in that Lohse was a guy who was looking for a long-term deal in the off-season, only to have no such luck before eventually settling for a one-year deal with the Cards for seemingly below market value. Given that he's once again in a contract year, it comes as little surprise he's put forth the best and most consistent 3+ months of his career. Lohse was once a big prospect with the Twins, only to turn in a largely disappointing career to this point considering his talents. Are we now to believe that at 29 he's finally put it all together and is capable of repeating his 11 win first half? I say no.
Edinson Volquez: Been one of the three best pitchers in baseball to this point. He's already tailed off a bit the last month, and I have concerns over how he'll respond to his first full season pitching in the bigs. He's pitching in one of the worst pitchers' parks in baseball, and his performance won't need to fall off too much to make him completely undeserving of the heavy price tags he's sure to command in the second half.
Jose Contreras: Seems to be past a stretch in May in which he was the best pitcher in baseball. Even with his recent slide, his overall numbers are largely impressive. This comes after being arguably the worst starter in baseball for a good portion of '07, which ultimately lead to him being temporarily bumped from the rotation. Given his age (at least 37), his outlook going forward is probably somewhere between his performance last season and his numbers thus far in '08.
Ryan Dempster: Similar to Lohse in that he's pitching the best of his career at a relatively late stage of his career. He was once a very good starter early in his career with the Marlins, but even in making the All-Star team in '00, he's never matched the numbers he's achieved so far this season. Dempster being overvalued going forward is further highlighted by his place on a public darling like the Cubs, a team that's routinely overpriced.