2008 MLB Betting: The Year of the Dog?
There's an upside-down nature to the standings this season with teams like the Tampa Bay Rays near the top of the standings while the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies are being left in the dust. Meanwhile at the MLB betting window, home dogs are providing a nice return while a few teams, perennial losers the Chicago Cubs included, are churning out win after win after win on their home turf.
Here we are at the All-Star break, where 97 games is considered the halfway point of a 162-game MLB season. No wonder baseball traditionalists look sideways at number crunchers.
Too bad, because these numbers suggest there’s a mint to be made against the MLB betting odds. At the “halfway” mark of the 2008 campaign, underdogs are charging the pay window at a very healthy 60.67-pecent clip against the runline. That goes up to 62.15 percent for home underdogs on a record of 243-148. Even straight up on the moneyline, home dogs are barking at 194-185. Remarkable.
This puppy power appears to be entirely in keeping with the upside-down nature of the standings. Teams we were used to seeing in the basement are thriving – the 55-39 Tampa Bay Rays front and center. Mostly, however, it’s been the cruel reversal of fortune for some of last year’s top contenders. The 41-53 Cleveland Indians and 37-58 San Diego Padres are last in their respective divisions; the 39-57 Colorado Rockies are also on life support.
But are these four teams the real cause? Digging deeper into the betting numbers, here’s what you’ll find:
Tampa Bay: 5-3 as a home dog (+2.45 units)
Cleveland: 9-10 as a road fave (-3.17 units)
San Diego: 5-3 as a road fave (+1.16 units)
Colorado: 1-6 as a road fave (-5.53 units)
The Rockies are the prime suspects here when it comes to the home dogs running the marketplace. They have the worst road record in the major leagues at 14-36, coughing up a nasty 17.80 units of cash – mostly as underdogs these days, since not even the dimmest bettor equates the 2008 team with the “Rocktober” juggernaut of late 2007.
But this still only accounts for a small piece of the puppy pie. Never mind the substandard teams in the above foursome; there are a number of quality teams who turn into pumpkins when they have to play on the road. Check out this list, in descending order of unprofitability:
Atlanta Braves: 15-32, -18.55 units
Arizona Diamondbacks: 20-29, -10.75 units
Boston Red Sox: 21-29, -10.31 units
Chicago Cubs: 20-26, -6.38 units
These are four teams who are making their living at home and only at home. Three of them are division leaders going into the All-Star break. The Braves are below .500 at 45-50 despite having a +28 run differential. Let’s see what this quartet is doing as road faves:
Atlanta: 7-17, -13.57 units
Arizona: 10-13, -6.27 units
Boston: 13-16, -7.12 units
Chicago: 13-10, +1.22 units
Can’t blame the Cubbies for this one – their road futility has come at the hands of some pretty good teams, like those two interleague sweeps at Tampa Bay and to that other team from the Windy City on Chicago's South Side. The other three clubs, however, are bleeding red ink. The Braves need some serious help in this department; with Tim Hudson on the mound, they’re 7-2 at Turner Field and 3-9 away. Hudson’s ERA rises from 2.13 to 4.09, and his run support drops from 5.56 to 4.17 per game.
No look at chalkeating road faves would be complete without the historically overvalued New York Yankees. They’re 23-23 on the road, down only 3.33 units, but that blows up to 5.46 units as road faves on a record of 15-16. And they can’t even blame poor pitching this time. The Yankees are 14th in the majors in runs scored, down from first last year. The Under is consequently 58-33-3 for New York, second only to Atlanta’s 61-31-3. They account for nearly two-thirds of the 725-639 edge (53.15 percent) the under is enjoying at the All-Star break. What do these guys need, a curfew?
There's an upside-down nature to the standings this season with teams like the Tampa Bay Rays near the top of the standings while the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies are being left in the dust. Meanwhile at the MLB betting window, home dogs are providing a nice return while a few teams, perennial losers the Chicago Cubs included, are churning out win after win after win on their home turf.
Here we are at the All-Star break, where 97 games is considered the halfway point of a 162-game MLB season. No wonder baseball traditionalists look sideways at number crunchers.
Too bad, because these numbers suggest there’s a mint to be made against the MLB betting odds. At the “halfway” mark of the 2008 campaign, underdogs are charging the pay window at a very healthy 60.67-pecent clip against the runline. That goes up to 62.15 percent for home underdogs on a record of 243-148. Even straight up on the moneyline, home dogs are barking at 194-185. Remarkable.
This puppy power appears to be entirely in keeping with the upside-down nature of the standings. Teams we were used to seeing in the basement are thriving – the 55-39 Tampa Bay Rays front and center. Mostly, however, it’s been the cruel reversal of fortune for some of last year’s top contenders. The 41-53 Cleveland Indians and 37-58 San Diego Padres are last in their respective divisions; the 39-57 Colorado Rockies are also on life support.
But are these four teams the real cause? Digging deeper into the betting numbers, here’s what you’ll find:
Tampa Bay: 5-3 as a home dog (+2.45 units)
Cleveland: 9-10 as a road fave (-3.17 units)
San Diego: 5-3 as a road fave (+1.16 units)
Colorado: 1-6 as a road fave (-5.53 units)
The Rockies are the prime suspects here when it comes to the home dogs running the marketplace. They have the worst road record in the major leagues at 14-36, coughing up a nasty 17.80 units of cash – mostly as underdogs these days, since not even the dimmest bettor equates the 2008 team with the “Rocktober” juggernaut of late 2007.
But this still only accounts for a small piece of the puppy pie. Never mind the substandard teams in the above foursome; there are a number of quality teams who turn into pumpkins when they have to play on the road. Check out this list, in descending order of unprofitability:
Atlanta Braves: 15-32, -18.55 units
Arizona Diamondbacks: 20-29, -10.75 units
Boston Red Sox: 21-29, -10.31 units
Chicago Cubs: 20-26, -6.38 units
These are four teams who are making their living at home and only at home. Three of them are division leaders going into the All-Star break. The Braves are below .500 at 45-50 despite having a +28 run differential. Let’s see what this quartet is doing as road faves:
Atlanta: 7-17, -13.57 units
Arizona: 10-13, -6.27 units
Boston: 13-16, -7.12 units
Chicago: 13-10, +1.22 units
Can’t blame the Cubbies for this one – their road futility has come at the hands of some pretty good teams, like those two interleague sweeps at Tampa Bay and to that other team from the Windy City on Chicago's South Side. The other three clubs, however, are bleeding red ink. The Braves need some serious help in this department; with Tim Hudson on the mound, they’re 7-2 at Turner Field and 3-9 away. Hudson’s ERA rises from 2.13 to 4.09, and his run support drops from 5.56 to 4.17 per game.
No look at chalkeating road faves would be complete without the historically overvalued New York Yankees. They’re 23-23 on the road, down only 3.33 units, but that blows up to 5.46 units as road faves on a record of 15-16. And they can’t even blame poor pitching this time. The Yankees are 14th in the majors in runs scored, down from first last year. The Under is consequently 58-33-3 for New York, second only to Atlanta’s 61-31-3. They account for nearly two-thirds of the 725-639 edge (53.15 percent) the under is enjoying at the All-Star break. What do these guys need, a curfew?