Fading the public and their All-Star picks
Same story, 79th verse. This year's MLB All-Star Game, the 79th in a series of exhibitions dating to 1933, is getting plenty of hype for being the last one played at venerable Yankee Stadium. Too bad some deserving players aren't going to be there. Then again, experienced handicappers have long known what the pundits and talking heads are screaming about currently: The general public really has no clue.
Another year, another batch of MLB All-Star snubs.
I’m not one to get my Under Armour in a bunch over who the fans vote to start in the All-Star Game. When you’re handicapping baseball, you don’t just get used to their bad decisions – you thrive off them. Beating the betting public is how you beat the betting odds, and the public believes just about everything Joe Morgan says.
So rather than kvetch, let’s honor those players who have actually performed the best at their positions during the first half of the 2008 campaign.
American League
C: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins: An easy pick that fans and experts can all agree on. Mauer has the highest OPS for regular catchers at .869 and leads his position with 51 runs created. He also has just one passed ball and has thrown out 34.7 percent of base stealers.
1B: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: A close call over Jason Giambi and Justin Morneau. Youkilis is second to Giambi in OPS (.910) and second to Morneau in runs created (59), he wins by a nose because of his .921 Zone Rating.
2B: Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers: Kinsler is a far better choice than fan selection Dustin Pedroia. He leads AL second baggers with a .932 OPS, 23 steals and 78 runs created, more than making up for Pedroia’s superior defense.
3B: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: A can of corn. A-Rod’s defense isn’t great, but he’s got a 1.003 OPS and 13 steals for good measure.
SS: Michael Young, Texas Rangers: Hate to say it, but Young is the best there is right now at shortstop – yes, better than what’s left of Derek Jeter. Young leads his position in OPS (.763) and runs created (47).
OF: Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians: It’s criminal that Sizemore isn’t in the starting outfield and Manny Ramirez is. He’s fourth with a .914 OPS, tops with 22 homers and 69 runs created, and he adds 20 steals and world class defense (.922 ZR).
OF: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers: A well-deserved starter at .915 OPS, 65 runs created, 19 dingers and a tasty 84 RBIs – even though seamheads aren’t big believers in ribbies.
OF: J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox: I love Ichiro as much as the next guy, but Drew (.986 OPS, 60 runs created) has saved Boston’s season with David Ortiz out of commission.
DH: Milton Bradley, Texas Rangers: Ortiz got voted in despite playing just 54 games. Bradley leads all players in the AL with a 1.045 OPS. Imagine if the Rangers had some pitching.
P: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays: Cliff Lee has the sparkling 2.43 ERA, but Halladay is the real deal at 2.88 xFIP, 113 strikeouts and six complete games.
National League
C: Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs: No complaints here. Leads NL catchers at .902 OPS, and his 25.5 percent rate of mowing down base stealers is better than Brian McCann and Russell Martin.
1B: Lance Berkman, Houston Astros: Another solid pick. First in OPS at 1.106, runs created at 81 and very good with the glove (9.66 range factor).
2B: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies: Make it 3-for-3. A very tough call over Dan Uggla. Utley is second in OPS at .983, but leads in runs created at 68 and is the better defender with a 5.20 RF.
3B: Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves: The NL fans are savvy – although Jones is a lock with a 1.119 OPS and 69 runs created. He also leads in ZR at .833.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins: This is too easy: .940 OPS, 21 dingers, 70 runs created make him a deserving unanimous pick.
OF: Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies: Now things get contentious. The fans voted in Ryan Braun, Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano. Forget that. Burrell is the best-hitting OF in the senior circuit at .995 OPS, 21 HR and 66 runs created.
OF: Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies: They want to trade this guy? With a .994 OPS and 10 steals to boot? Sacrilege.
OF: Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh Pirates: Many outstanding candidates for the No. 3 slot. I’ll take Nady with his .927 OPS, 54 runs created, and the kicker: nine assists with a 2.56 RF in RF.
P: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: Edinson Volquez has stuffed fantasy sheets, but Lincecum is the better choice at 3.48 xFIP, 122 strikeouts and an NL-best 71 pitching runs created.
Same story, 79th verse. This year's MLB All-Star Game, the 79th in a series of exhibitions dating to 1933, is getting plenty of hype for being the last one played at venerable Yankee Stadium. Too bad some deserving players aren't going to be there. Then again, experienced handicappers have long known what the pundits and talking heads are screaming about currently: The general public really has no clue.
Another year, another batch of MLB All-Star snubs.
I’m not one to get my Under Armour in a bunch over who the fans vote to start in the All-Star Game. When you’re handicapping baseball, you don’t just get used to their bad decisions – you thrive off them. Beating the betting public is how you beat the betting odds, and the public believes just about everything Joe Morgan says.
So rather than kvetch, let’s honor those players who have actually performed the best at their positions during the first half of the 2008 campaign.
American League
C: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins: An easy pick that fans and experts can all agree on. Mauer has the highest OPS for regular catchers at .869 and leads his position with 51 runs created. He also has just one passed ball and has thrown out 34.7 percent of base stealers.
1B: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: A close call over Jason Giambi and Justin Morneau. Youkilis is second to Giambi in OPS (.910) and second to Morneau in runs created (59), he wins by a nose because of his .921 Zone Rating.
2B: Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers: Kinsler is a far better choice than fan selection Dustin Pedroia. He leads AL second baggers with a .932 OPS, 23 steals and 78 runs created, more than making up for Pedroia’s superior defense.
3B: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: A can of corn. A-Rod’s defense isn’t great, but he’s got a 1.003 OPS and 13 steals for good measure.
SS: Michael Young, Texas Rangers: Hate to say it, but Young is the best there is right now at shortstop – yes, better than what’s left of Derek Jeter. Young leads his position in OPS (.763) and runs created (47).
OF: Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians: It’s criminal that Sizemore isn’t in the starting outfield and Manny Ramirez is. He’s fourth with a .914 OPS, tops with 22 homers and 69 runs created, and he adds 20 steals and world class defense (.922 ZR).
OF: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers: A well-deserved starter at .915 OPS, 65 runs created, 19 dingers and a tasty 84 RBIs – even though seamheads aren’t big believers in ribbies.
OF: J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox: I love Ichiro as much as the next guy, but Drew (.986 OPS, 60 runs created) has saved Boston’s season with David Ortiz out of commission.
DH: Milton Bradley, Texas Rangers: Ortiz got voted in despite playing just 54 games. Bradley leads all players in the AL with a 1.045 OPS. Imagine if the Rangers had some pitching.
P: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays: Cliff Lee has the sparkling 2.43 ERA, but Halladay is the real deal at 2.88 xFIP, 113 strikeouts and six complete games.
National League
C: Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs: No complaints here. Leads NL catchers at .902 OPS, and his 25.5 percent rate of mowing down base stealers is better than Brian McCann and Russell Martin.
1B: Lance Berkman, Houston Astros: Another solid pick. First in OPS at 1.106, runs created at 81 and very good with the glove (9.66 range factor).
2B: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies: Make it 3-for-3. A very tough call over Dan Uggla. Utley is second in OPS at .983, but leads in runs created at 68 and is the better defender with a 5.20 RF.
3B: Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves: The NL fans are savvy – although Jones is a lock with a 1.119 OPS and 69 runs created. He also leads in ZR at .833.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins: This is too easy: .940 OPS, 21 dingers, 70 runs created make him a deserving unanimous pick.
OF: Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies: Now things get contentious. The fans voted in Ryan Braun, Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano. Forget that. Burrell is the best-hitting OF in the senior circuit at .995 OPS, 21 HR and 66 runs created.
OF: Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies: They want to trade this guy? With a .994 OPS and 10 steals to boot? Sacrilege.
OF: Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh Pirates: Many outstanding candidates for the No. 3 slot. I’ll take Nady with his .927 OPS, 54 runs created, and the kicker: nine assists with a 2.56 RF in RF.
P: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: Edinson Volquez has stuffed fantasy sheets, but Lincecum is the better choice at 3.48 xFIP, 122 strikeouts and an NL-best 71 pitching runs created.