WolfpackChuck's grind against the books

[WolfpackChuck]

By request, I'm making a thread to post my picks.

Disclaimer: There will absolutely be ups and downs. Absolutely zero guarantees, please do your own homework. I play for VALUE and long term profit. I don't have any systems and I do NOT chase (anymore). And I only bet 2% of my bank roll per play (1 unit). Money management is essential to having any chance of winning money in the long term.

Additionally, I'd like to contribute this quick lesson. I've found it extremely useful in my own capping. If a team is favored by say -167 then that team has to win 62.5% of the time. The simple and beautiful formula to come to this conclusion is to take the moneyline (in this case -167) and divide it by the moneyline + 100. So it would be 167/267. That's your 62.5% break even point. I'm sure some of you are already aware of this little trick, but hopefully it will be helpful to someone else.

So for tonight:
Yankees -210 (risk 2.1 to win 1 unit) - won't see me playing -200 favs often, but the Mariner's historical slide has created some extenuating circumstances
Mets +126 (to win 1 unit)
Twins +165 (to win 1 unit)
Rays -116 (risk 1.16 to win 1 unit)

Good luck to you, you sick bastards.

[WolfpackChuck]

late add:
Pirates +180 (risk 0.5 units)

[Bengals28]

like the card, BOL man.

[borednaz]

Wish you luck on all but the twins. I need texas.

[edh1011]

the pirates have made a killing this season on the road in value. yet the books keep setting them as heavy dogs

[chevy6]

thanks for the thread ... like ur thoughts

[mangina11]

Good picks today win me points

[cashville03]

good luck looking forward to the plays

[WolfpackChuck]

Yankees -210 (risk 2.1 to win 1 unit) WIN - won't see me playing -200 favs often, but the Mariner's historical slide has created some extenuating circumstances
Mets +126 (to win 1 unit) WIN
Twins +165 (to win 1 unit) LOSS (got clowned on this one too)
Rays -116 (risk 1.16 to win 1 unit) LOSS
Pirates +180 (risk 0.5 units) WIN

Record: 3-2
Units (7/26): +1.14
Total Units: +1.14

[miyakuza]

Not bad Wolfpack. Stay focused to increase your bankroll.

I like the Rays tonight, the line is coming down, but there was RLM on oakland yesterday. This just seems like a move by the books to signal like A's are the play again today.

[WolfpackChuck]

July 26th plays

Thanks guys.

July 26th plays
I like a lot of plays tonight. Mostly chalk sprinkled in with a couple of dogs. That's kind of scary. I also added some quick write ups. These write ups obviously aren't the only reasoning behind the picks, just some of the bigger theme(s) to give you an idea of what I'm thinking.

Brewers -147: Brewers are 33-14 at home, with the awful Cubs visiting. I'll pay the juice.
Twins +195: This pick ain't gonna to be popular I'm sure. The Twins got embarrassed last night. I'll gamble here and take a chance at a good price that they have some sort of pride tonight and put up a fight.
Red Sox -164: There's good value here. I basically think the line is deflated after the Red Sox loss last night. If they win last night they'd be -200 or worse and a no play.
Phillies -116: This is going to be a playoff like atmosphere tonight in Philly. I'm playing home field advantage at a good price. (Lincecum scratched, switching sides.. see below)
Giants +172
Angels -135: Jer Weaver.
Marlins +116: Nats are good home team, but not playing well as of late. I see this being a 50/50 and taking the +EV dogs.
Reds -142: Cincy's ace, Cueto, takes the mound tonight. Jon Niese for NYM is very capable, but Cincy hits lefties well this season. Hopefully that will continue this evening.

All favorites risking to win 1 unit and all dogs to win 1 unit (2% of bankroll).

Best of luck to all you sick bastards.

[BigDan]

Brew Crew should win but im gonna give them 1 game at home before i start hitting them up all homestand. both pitchers with solid numbers under could be ok.

Gl with the card

[WolfpackChuck]

Brew Crew should win but im gonna give them 1 game at home before i start hitting them up all homestand. both pitchers with solid numbers under could be ok.

Gl with the card

Thanks, bro.

I believe both teams had the day off yesterday, so hoping the transition from road to home won't be too big of a factor, if any.

[God1]

Red Sox -164: There's good value here. I basically think the line is deflated after the Red Sox loss last night. If they win last night they'd be -200 or worse and a no play.

this is BEYOND ludicrious

This thread is a trainwreck waiting to happen

[WolfpackChuck]

Kind of worried now that you only think one of the 7 picks is ludicrous. I'd feel better if you hated all of them. So how much money are you putting on the Royals tonight?

I'm sure you'll let me know about it when I inevitably have a losing day though, so thanks in advance.

[God1]

Kind of worried now that you only think one of the 7 picks is ludicrous. I'd feel better if you hated all of them.

I hate quite a few but just pointed out the most ridiculous statement of the bunch

So how much money are you putting on the Royals tonight?

thats for me to know brah

[Not-A-Kid]

this is BEYOND ludicrious This thread is a trainwreck waiting to happen

Do you remember the time you took Texas -200 on Sunday? Toronto had no chance and the game would be over by the 3rd inning? Toronto 3, Texas 0 Final.

[WolfpackChuck]

Updated my picks to reflect Lincecum being scratched. Switching pick to Giants +172. Get er done!

[sweethook]

nice job im sure you well do well , gl man

[freakydave]

Updated my picks to reflect Lincecum being scratched. Switching pick to Giants +172. Get er done!

The Giants scratch their ace & you jump on them ? after being on Philly.

[WolfpackChuck]

The Giants scratch their ace & you jump on them ? after being on Philly.

That is correct. I guess you didn't realize the line also changed and that Phillies are batting .227 against lefties at home this year?

Look people, you guys can play for a pretty win/loss record, but I'm playing to make money.

[God1]

That is correct. I guess you didn't realize the line also changed and that Phillies are batting .227 against lefties at home this year?

I guess you didn't realize Zito is one of the worst pitchers in baseball? Looking like a bloodbath tonight