NC 2H picks

[mngambler]

best road record in baseball, most runs scored in baseball, I'll take my chances at 1u for the price...I know Tex is good, I know the line is moving, but Bos can crush anyone at anytime so again for the price i'll risk it...BOL everyone

$100.00 $144.00Pending8/25/11 8:05pm MLB Baseball 919 Boston Red Sox +144* vs Texas Rangers (A Miller - L must Start A Ogando - R must Start)

[No coincidences]

At least the Yankees came back and kept me from getting skunked in the afternoon.

[God1]

Do you believe the line the books post?

wtf does that mean?

i.e., are they "true" lines with "true" line movement, or do they sometimes bait and switch?

I don't understand what you're saying. Books are market makers pure and simple. They set a line based on a combination of their sharp money and where the money is coming in. Period. Your theories of some bait and switch are ridiculous

[No coincidences]

wtf does that mean?



I don't understand what you're saying. Books are market makers pure and simple. They set a line based on a combination of their sharp money and where the money is coming in. Period. Your theories of some bait and switch are ridiculous

Really. So it's all based on the money coming in and nothing else. Interesting. All line movement is true line movement dictated strictly by the bets being made, rather than sometimes giving out lines and moves to attract money from the other side regardless of what's coming in. Hmm.

[blackeyeshamus]

hey, noco! heads up!

ARI @ +127 x5
BOS/TEX u 10 and PIT/STL u 8 parlay 2.00 win 5.45

good luck, and god speed.

[God1]

Really. So it's all based on the money coming in and nothing else. Interesting. All line movement is true line movement

It's true movement if you believe the pinnacle line is the current sharpest line out there at any point in time, which I believe to be the case. Is the line movement at 9:30 am on a night game "true" movement in the sense that it is definitely right? No, because as we know the closer is the sharpest line. But it is true movement in so much as that at 9:30 am that is the best estimate of the true line

rather than sometimes giving out lines and moves to attract money from the other side regardless of what's coming in. Hmm.

I don't know where you came up with this theory but this seems like this is one of those myths that every gambler has heard about so it just keeps being recycled as gospel without a shred of evidence or logic behind it.

There's no doubt that some lines will necessarily be off of the true line because of heavy action on one side. This essentially produces the same result as your baiting theory

[No coincidences]

I don't know where you came up with this theory but this seems like this is one of those myths that every gambler has heard about so it just keeps being recycled as gospel without a shred of evidence or logic behind it.

And you know for a fact it is false?

[God1]

And you know for a fact it is false?

Please don't use ad ignorantiam fallacies to support your position

edit: that means that assuming something is true or lending support to its truth just because it cannot be proven false

[No coincidences]

Please don't use ad ignorantiam fallacies to support your position

I'm sure gambling books are on the level 100% of the time when it comes to posting likes.

Come on man.

[No coincidences]

Please don't use ad ignorantiam fallacies to support your position

edit: that means that assuming something is true or lending support to its truth just because it cannot be proven false

I know what it means, thank you.

You think all books are on the level with their lines, which is every bit the assumption that my theory is.

[God1]

I'm sure gambling books are on the level 100% of the time when it comes to posting likes.

Come on man.

I don't understand, you think pinnacle is showing lines on their site that are different from those you are actually allowed to bet if you had an account there?

[God1]

I know what it means, thank you.

You think all books are on the level with their lines, which is every bit the assumption that my theory is.

A sharp books line at any given time is a mix of their sharp information and all the money that has been bet on that game. It's up to the pinnacle trader responsible for that game to decide how much weight to give to each factor and whether to override the computer

[No coincidences]

I don't understand, you think pinnacle is showing lines on their site that are different from those you are actually allowed to bet if you had an account there?

No.

I'm saying books insert their expert "opinions" into lines based on advanced information, and that saying it's based solely on money coming in is a simplistic and naive way of looking at it.

[God1]

No.

I'm saying books insert their expert "opinions" into lines based on advanced information, and that saying it's based solely on money coming in is a simplistic and naive way of looking at it.

That advanced information is purely how their sharp money is betting, nothing more. They start with a base line of what their computer model says and move it accordingly based on how the betting is coming in

The books "expert" opinion on a game is their opening line. If they had to stick to their expert opinion they'd be out of business

After the line is opened, all movement is based on the money being bet. The market sets the closing line

[God1]

Here's your proof that lines are based heavily on where money comes in:

Sosa/Vogelsong tonight is +242/-260
Happ/Bumgarner tomorrow night is +215/-230

i can't believe how bad a line I got earlier on the astros. I just put a bunch more at +242

[No coincidences]

Can't resist.

TEX -151 (3U)

[No coincidences]

Here's your proof that lines are based heavily on where money comes in:

Sosa/Vogelsong tonight is +242/-260
Happ/Bumgarner tomorrow night is +215/-230

i can't believe how bad a line I got earlier on the astros. I just put a bunch more at +242

How does that "prove" anything?

[God1]

How does that "prove" anything?

Bumgarner is the far superior pitcher

also jumped on texas but small

[No coincidences]

Bumgarner is the far superior pitcher

And?

[italianbandit]

Can't resist.

TEX -151 (3U)

I don't blame you, good luck. I fought with my mouse on this one, but laid off. I liked Boston +158, and Texas at -151. I should have taken both.

[God1]

And?

That means bumgarner should be more expensive not cheaper

[No coincidences]

That means bumgarner should be more expensive not cheaper

But how is that proof of where the money is?

[God1]

But how is that proof of where the money is?

If Vogelsong is more expensive that means there was so much money on the giants it forced pinnacle way above what they think the actual probability of the game would be.

Now of course this is obvious from the opener, but when they have all the market information from the Vogelsong game and they still open Bumgarner 30 cents cheaper it tells you how heavily their hand was forced to keep moving the line on vogelsong

[BiffTFinancial]

The question is whether or not books take sides on action. I think that a lot do now. I think that Pinny might, and if they do, 5D does because they routinely trail Pinny. Greek is only book that I definitely think does not takes sides.

[God1]

There is no doubt they take sides in the sense that many times they make more money when a certain side wins or loses. Every book follows pinnacle to some extent

[No coincidences]

There is no doubt they take sides in the sense that many times they make more money when a certain side wins or loses. Every book follows pinnacle to some extent

I think you're giving books too much credit for being on the level all the time.

[BiffTFinancial]

what i mean by taking sides is that they consciously anticipate the side that the smart money will back, and try to shade their risk to that side. it is particularly easy for them to do this in baseball. generally, i think that Pinny tracks the market, but at least in my humble opinion without empirical backing, they pick their spots and outsmart the market. reading line movement isn't rocket science. other than Lorain County high school football, why is reading line movement alone so erratic?

[Ryan138]

Here goes our az
Bet

[No coincidences]

Just realized that my bets on Arizona and Cincinnati (NFL) didn't go through. Line changed and I thought I confirmed the bet, but apparently I didn't.

When it rains it pours.

[Ryan138]

You may have lucked out here with that!

[God1]

I think you're giving books too much credit for being on the level all the time.

What does on the level mean? That phrase implies some kind of cheating or fraud which I know is not what you mean

[God1]

There are obviously instances where the action forces books to take sides, the most blatant example is home underdogs which have been profitable every year for at least the last 6 or 7 years

[God1]

what i mean by taking sides is that they consciously anticipate the side that the smart money will back, and try to shade their risk to that side.

What you are talking about all goes on pre-open. Once the line is opened that all goes out the window and they are market makers that take into account their smart clients' bets, that's it

[No coincidences]

What does on the level mean? That phrase implies some kind of cheating or fraud which I know is not what you mean

No subjectivity, compromising or, like I said earlier, baiting and switching.

[God1]

And books obviously do an extremely poor job of "anticipating smart money" or any of that garbage because there is constantly huge movement off the open