NC 2H picks

[God1]

Oddsmakers knew if they put the Red Sox at a ridiculously high price, people would take the bait.

So why not make boston +170 and get even more people "to take the bait". your line of logic is absurd

When's the last time you saw Boston +150-160 anywhere against anyone?

This is the most absurd red herring I've seen. When was the last time Andrew Miller pitched away against the Yankees or Rangers and faced one of Sabathia, Ogando, Wilson, Garcia, Colon? Because that's the only situation they'd be +150 or more. Or in tampa against shields/price. or in detroit against verlander

[lunchbawks]

Oakland or Boston, one of them has to win right?

[No coincidences]

So why not make boston +170 and get even more people "to take the bait". your line of logic is absurd

Their No. 1 goal is to attract as much of an equal amount of money as possible from both sides -- especially in a high-profile game. They've done that. People see Boston at +150 and automatically assume value. There is none in backing Miller, and the line reflects that -- not the other way around like some think. I'm agreeing with you here.

[God1]

Their No. 1 goal is to attract as much of an equal amount of money as possible from both sides -- especially in a high-profile game. They've done that. People see Boston at +150 and automatically assume value. There is none in backing Miller, and the line reflects that -- not the other way around like some think. I'm agreeing with you here.

Ah ok I misinterpreted you then, I agree with all that

[Avenger]

jesus christ dude stop letting a few games influence your entire perception of a guy or team. i'm not even going to bother with this one

It's -165 because that's what the market thinks. side

Ogando is a rookie who pitched lights out early this season. Last few games ERA horrific compared to earlier in the season. Everything points to fatigue and lack of experience. I've seen it happen with so many rook pitchers having great rook years, Jimenez being last years.

That being said, I'm on Rangers, bats will bail him out tonite, Ogando will be their next ace. But I wish I could bet on Ogandos ERA tonite. I predict at least 3 ERs.

[God1]

Ogando is a rookie who pitched lights out early this season. Last few games ERA horrific compared to earlier in the season.

he's been just as consistent lately as earlier......august xFIP 3.74, july 3.82, may 3.63, april 4.30........ERA is irrelevant

Everything points to fatigue and lack of experience.

So far in august he's posting his 2nd best monthly xFIP of the entire season so you can make up reasons all you want but that won't make it true

[Avenger]

I'm taking Rangers because probability of Rangers being 1-3 at home are way lower than whatever -165 percentage translate to. I'm concerned about Ogando, after his last game, I've been considering him autofade. But Rangers are not Mariners, they can win with bad pitching and historically they play well late season, probably due to the heat and experience.

[God1]

I'm taking Rangers because probability of Rangers being 1-3 at home are way lower than whatever -165 percentage translate to. I'm concerned about Ogando, after his last game, I've been considering him autofade. But Rangers are not Mariners, they can win with bad pitching and historically they play well late season, probably due to the heat and experience.

you are the epitome of square money

[Avenger]

I won't pretend I even understand what an FIP stands for, all I know is batters are hitting and scoring on him lately.
BOL, I'm not replying as I'm on my phone and I need to do other things. But if u want to further explain why ERs are unimportant, I'll read it later.

[God1]

just google xFIP

[Avenger]

And there's nothing wrong with being square, especially in MLB. If it was meant to be offensive, no offense was taken.

[hardball]

Just FYI.

I thought this line was interesting as well....

This is Bostons highest Underdog line of the year.

Only 4 other examples of the Boston line being > +130 that I could find.

08/06 NY Yankees W 10-4 +141 Sabathia vs Lackey in Boston 38% on Boston
07/16 Tampa Bay W 9-5 +130 Lakey vs Shields in Tampa. 50% on Boston
07/15 Tampa Bay L 6-9 +145 Miller vs Price in Tampa 62% on Boston.
06/09 NY Yankees W 8-3 +136 Beckett vs Sabathia in NYC 32% on Boston

[God1]

And there's nothing wrong with being square, especially in MLB. If it was meant to be offensive, no offense was taken.

there's nothing wrong with being square if you are ok with losing money

[God1]

Ogando already bet down to -156

[No coincidences]

Just FYI.

I thought this line was interesting as well....

This is Bostons highest Underdog line of the year.

Only 4 other examples of the Boston line being > +130 that I could find.

08/06 NY Yankees W 10-4 +141 Sabathia vs Lackey in Boston 38% on Boston
07/16 Tampa Bay W 9-5 +130 Lakey vs Shields in Tampa. 50% on Boston
07/15 Tampa Bay L 6-9 +145 Miller vs Price in Tampa 62% on Boston.
06/09 NY Yankees W 8-3 +136 Beckett vs Sabathia in NYC 32% on Boston

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Miller get shelled that day Hardball?

God, it doesn't surprise me that the line is moving that way with 60% of the public on Boston. Books are loving this kind of action on a dog that won't hit.

[God1]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Miller get shelled that day Hardball?

God, it doesn't surprise me that the line is moving that way with 60% of the public on Boston. Books are loving this kind of action on a dog that won't hit.

They definitely aren't loving any action they gave at +155 if they have it now at +147

[hardball]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Miller get shelled that day Hardball?

Yup. Couldn't find the plate. 2.2 IP, 7 ER runs, 5 hits, 5 walks on 85 pitches.

[No coincidences]

Two more bets, and if they don't hit, I'm done for a while. Just getting annihilated the past few days:

ARI +128 (5U)

If that hits, I'll be on the Astros in the late game.

[No coincidences]

They definitely aren't loving any action they gave at +155 if they have it now at +147

It's only an 8 cent move, which is pretty standard when the public is on a dog.

What are you playing tonight?

[No coincidences]

Red Sox now the No. 1 MLB bet tonight at Sportsbook.com, with 75% on the ML.

[blackeyeshamus]

Two more bets, and if they don't hit, I'm done for a while. Just getting annihilated the past few days:

ARI +128 (5U)

If that hits, I'll be on the Astros in the late game.

no co, I am buried right now.
thinking about following the ARI play tonight
in an effort to take a chunk outta my total.
thanks for the lead, sir. good luck tonight-
for you and me, my friend.

[God1]

It's only an 8 cent move, which is pretty standard when the public is on a dog.

8 cent move 3 hours before the game is pretty sizable.

What are you playing tonight?

astros....also have a bet on the cardinals but small

[God1]

Red Sox now the No. 1 MLB bet tonight at Sportsbook.com, with 75% on the ML.

why use data from such a small market? sportsinsights is 6 different books they are at 58%

[chimp]

Two more bets, and if they don't hit, I'm done for a while. Just getting annihilated the past few days:

ARI +128 (5U)

If that hits, I'll be on the Astros in the late game.

I'll be on Arizona large as well

[God1]

no co, I am buried right now.
thinking about following the ARI play tonight
in an effort to take a chunk outta my total.
thanks for the lead, sir. good luck tonight-
for you and me, my friend.

do you expect to be anything other than buried when laying -173 on the twins??

[God1]

lol why is everyone "large" on a rookie pitcher at +126?

[No coincidences]

why use data from such a small market? sportsinsights is 6 different books they are at 58%

Because it's a very square book.

[No coincidences]

I'm trying to figure out why the total keeps rising in the ARI/WAS game. Two lefty starters vs. two teams shitty vs. southpaws.

[blackeyeshamus]

do you expect to be anything other than buried when laying -173 on the twins??

don't forget the -173 thrown down on tampa bay.
should have made a 3x play on ATL. live, and learn.

[No coincidences]

8 cent move 3 hours before the game is pretty sizable.

Not if it doesn't all come at once, which it didn't.

In fact, the only move at Pinny of 5 cents or more at once was Texas from -162 to -167 yesterday afternoon.

[tatddy]

Was and SF win. Tread carefully, Coin.

I can understand people betting HOU, Vogelsong and SF are wayyy to overvalued here. Line should be no more than -180. But, that said they still get it done tonight in another 1 run game most likely.

ARI could pull out a low scoring game but I'd side with the home team here.

[God1]

Not if it doesn't all come at once, which it didn't.

In fact, the only move at Pinny of 5 cents or more at once was Texas from -162 to -167 yesterday afternoon.

completely irrelevant whether it went in 3 moves of 3 cents, 2 cents, 2 cents or 1 move of 8 cents. All that matters is what the resulting line is

[No coincidences]

completely irrelevant whether it went in 3 moves of 3 cents, 2 cents, 2 cents or 1 move of 8 cents. All that matters is what the resulting line is

So a move from, say, -130 to -138 in one shot isn't any different than a move from -130 to -138 over the course of several hours?

[God1]

So a move from, say, -130 to -138 in one shot isn't any different than a move from -130 to -138 over the course of several hours?

no because the end result of both have the true line the same

[No coincidences]

Do you believe the line the books post?

i.e., are they "true" lines with "true" line movement, or do they sometimes bait and switch?