NC 2H picks

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  • God1
    Restricted User
    • 07-18-11
    • 848

    #526
    Originally posted by No coincidences
    Oddsmakers knew if they put the Red Sox at a ridiculously high price, people would take the bait.
    So why not make boston +170 and get even more people "to take the bait". your line of logic is absurd

    When's the last time you saw Boston +150-160 anywhere against anyone?
    This is the most absurd red herring I've seen. When was the last time Andrew Miller pitched away against the Yankees or Rangers and faced one of Sabathia, Ogando, Wilson, Garcia, Colon? Because that's the only situation they'd be +150 or more. Or in tampa against shields/price. or in detroit against verlander
    Comment
    • lunchbawks
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-31-10
      • 12873

      #527
      Oakland or Boston, one of them has to win right?
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #528
        Originally posted by God1
        So why not make boston +170 and get even more people "to take the bait". your line of logic is absurd
        Their No. 1 goal is to attract as much of an equal amount of money as possible from both sides -- especially in a high-profile game. They've done that. People see Boston at +150 and automatically assume value. There is none in backing Miller, and the line reflects that -- not the other way around like some think. I'm agreeing with you here.
        Comment
        • God1
          Restricted User
          • 07-18-11
          • 848

          #529
          Originally posted by No coincidences
          Their No. 1 goal is to attract as much of an equal amount of money as possible from both sides -- especially in a high-profile game. They've done that. People see Boston at +150 and automatically assume value. There is none in backing Miller, and the line reflects that -- not the other way around like some think. I'm agreeing with you here.
          Ah ok I misinterpreted you then, I agree with all that
          Comment
          • Avenger
            SBR MVP
            • 03-15-11
            • 2119

            #530
            Originally posted by God1
            jesus christ dude stop letting a few games influence your entire perception of a guy or team. i'm not even going to bother with this one

            It's -165 because that's what the market thinks. side
            Ogando is a rookie who pitched lights out early this season. Last few games ERA horrific compared to earlier in the season. Everything points to fatigue and lack of experience. I've seen it happen with so many rook pitchers having great rook years, Jimenez being last years.

            That being said, I'm on Rangers, bats will bail him out tonite, Ogando will be their next ace. But I wish I could bet on Ogandos ERA tonite. I predict at least 3 ERs.
            Comment
            • God1
              Restricted User
              • 07-18-11
              • 848

              #531
              Originally posted by Avenger
              Ogando is a rookie who pitched lights out early this season. Last few games ERA horrific compared to earlier in the season.
              he's been just as consistent lately as earlier......august xFIP 3.74, july 3.82, may 3.63, april 4.30........ERA is irrelevant

              Everything points to fatigue and lack of experience.
              So far in august he's posting his 2nd best monthly xFIP of the entire season so you can make up reasons all you want but that won't make it true
              Comment
              • Avenger
                SBR MVP
                • 03-15-11
                • 2119

                #532
                I'm taking Rangers because probability of Rangers being 1-3 at home are way lower than whatever -165 percentage translate to. I'm concerned about Ogando, after his last game, I've been considering him autofade. But Rangers are not Mariners, they can win with bad pitching and historically they play well late season, probably due to the heat and experience.
                Comment
                • God1
                  Restricted User
                  • 07-18-11
                  • 848

                  #533
                  Originally posted by Avenger
                  I'm taking Rangers because probability of Rangers being 1-3 at home are way lower than whatever -165 percentage translate to. I'm concerned about Ogando, after his last game, I've been considering him autofade. But Rangers are not Mariners, they can win with bad pitching and historically they play well late season, probably due to the heat and experience.
                  you are the epitome of square money
                  Comment
                  • Avenger
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-15-11
                    • 2119

                    #534
                    I won't pretend I even understand what an FIP stands for, all I know is batters are hitting and scoring on him lately.
                    BOL, I'm not replying as I'm on my phone and I need to do other things. But if u want to further explain why ERs are unimportant, I'll read it later.
                    Comment
                    • God1
                      Restricted User
                      • 07-18-11
                      • 848

                      #535
                      just google xFIP
                      Comment
                      • Avenger
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-15-11
                        • 2119

                        #536
                        And there's nothing wrong with being square, especially in MLB. If it was meant to be offensive, no offense was taken.
                        Comment
                        • hardball
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 12-02-10
                          • 435

                          #537
                          Just FYI.

                          I thought this line was interesting as well....

                          This is Bostons highest Underdog line of the year.

                          Only 4 other examples of the Boston line being > +130 that I could find.

                          08/06 NY Yankees W 10-4 +141 Sabathia vs Lackey in Boston 38% on Boston
                          07/16 Tampa Bay W 9-5 +130 Lakey vs Shields in Tampa. 50% on Boston
                          07/15 Tampa Bay L 6-9 +145 Miller vs Price in Tampa 62% on Boston.
                          06/09 NY Yankees W 8-3 +136 Beckett vs Sabathia in NYC 32% on Boston
                          Comment
                          • God1
                            Restricted User
                            • 07-18-11
                            • 848

                            #538
                            Originally posted by Avenger
                            And there's nothing wrong with being square, especially in MLB. If it was meant to be offensive, no offense was taken.
                            there's nothing wrong with being square if you are ok with losing money
                            Comment
                            • God1
                              Restricted User
                              • 07-18-11
                              • 848

                              #539
                              Ogando already bet down to -156
                              Comment
                              • No coincidences
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-18-10
                                • 76300

                                #540
                                Originally posted by hardball
                                Just FYI.

                                I thought this line was interesting as well....

                                This is Bostons highest Underdog line of the year.

                                Only 4 other examples of the Boston line being > +130 that I could find.

                                08/06 NY Yankees W 10-4 +141 Sabathia vs Lackey in Boston 38% on Boston
                                07/16 Tampa Bay W 9-5 +130 Lakey vs Shields in Tampa. 50% on Boston
                                07/15 Tampa Bay L 6-9 +145 Miller vs Price in Tampa 62% on Boston.
                                06/09 NY Yankees W 8-3 +136 Beckett vs Sabathia in NYC 32% on Boston
                                Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Miller get shelled that day Hardball?

                                God, it doesn't surprise me that the line is moving that way with 60% of the public on Boston. Books are loving this kind of action on a dog that won't hit.
                                Comment
                                • God1
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 07-18-11
                                  • 848

                                  #541
                                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                                  Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Miller get shelled that day Hardball?

                                  God, it doesn't surprise me that the line is moving that way with 60% of the public on Boston. Books are loving this kind of action on a dog that won't hit.
                                  They definitely aren't loving any action they gave at +155 if they have it now at +147
                                  Comment
                                  • hardball
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 12-02-10
                                    • 435

                                    #542
                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                    Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Miller get shelled that day Hardball?
                                    Yup. Couldn't find the plate. 2.2 IP, 7 ER runs, 5 hits, 5 walks on 85 pitches.
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #543
                                      Two more bets, and if they don't hit, I'm done for a while. Just getting annihilated the past few days:

                                      ARI +128 (5U)

                                      If that hits, I'll be on the Astros in the late game.
                                      Comment
                                      • No coincidences
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 01-18-10
                                        • 76300

                                        #544
                                        Originally posted by God1
                                        They definitely aren't loving any action they gave at +155 if they have it now at +147
                                        It's only an 8 cent move, which is pretty standard when the public is on a dog.

                                        What are you playing tonight?
                                        Comment
                                        • No coincidences
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-18-10
                                          • 76300

                                          #545
                                          Red Sox now the No. 1 MLB bet tonight at Sportsbook.com, with 75% on the ML.
                                          Comment
                                          • blackeyeshamus
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 02-19-11
                                            • 6632

                                            #546
                                            Originally posted by No coincidences
                                            Two more bets, and if they don't hit, I'm done for a while. Just getting annihilated the past few days:

                                            ARI +128 (5U)

                                            If that hits, I'll be on the Astros in the late game.
                                            no co, I am buried right now.
                                            thinking about following the ARI play tonight
                                            in an effort to take a chunk outta my total.
                                            thanks for the lead, sir. good luck tonight-
                                            for you and me, my friend.
                                            Comment
                                            • God1
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 07-18-11
                                              • 848

                                              #547
                                              Originally posted by No coincidences
                                              It's only an 8 cent move, which is pretty standard when the public is on a dog.
                                              8 cent move 3 hours before the game is pretty sizable.

                                              What are you playing tonight?
                                              astros....also have a bet on the cardinals but small
                                              Comment
                                              • God1
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 07-18-11
                                                • 848

                                                #548
                                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                Red Sox now the No. 1 MLB bet tonight at Sportsbook.com, with 75% on the ML.
                                                why use data from such a small market? sportsinsights is 6 different books they are at 58%
                                                Comment
                                                • chimp
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 01-17-10
                                                  • 742

                                                  #549
                                                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                  Two more bets, and if they don't hit, I'm done for a while. Just getting annihilated the past few days:

                                                  ARI +128 (5U)

                                                  If that hits, I'll be on the Astros in the late game.
                                                  I'll be on Arizona large as well
                                                  Comment
                                                  • God1
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 07-18-11
                                                    • 848

                                                    #550
                                                    Originally posted by blackeyeshamus
                                                    no co, I am buried right now.
                                                    thinking about following the ARI play tonight
                                                    in an effort to take a chunk outta my total.
                                                    thanks for the lead, sir. good luck tonight-
                                                    for you and me, my friend.
                                                    do you expect to be anything other than buried when laying -173 on the twins??
                                                    Comment
                                                    • God1
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 07-18-11
                                                      • 848

                                                      #551
                                                      lol why is everyone "large" on a rookie pitcher at +126?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • No coincidences
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-18-10
                                                        • 76300

                                                        #552
                                                        Originally posted by God1
                                                        why use data from such a small market? sportsinsights is 6 different books they are at 58%
                                                        Because it's a very square book.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • No coincidences
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 01-18-10
                                                          • 76300

                                                          #553
                                                          I'm trying to figure out why the total keeps rising in the ARI/WAS game. Two lefty starters vs. two teams shitty vs. southpaws.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • blackeyeshamus
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 02-19-11
                                                            • 6632

                                                            #554
                                                            Originally posted by God1
                                                            do you expect to be anything other than buried when laying -173 on the twins??
                                                            don't forget the -173 thrown down on tampa bay.
                                                            should have made a 3x play on ATL. live, and learn.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • No coincidences
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 01-18-10
                                                              • 76300

                                                              #555
                                                              Originally posted by God1
                                                              8 cent move 3 hours before the game is pretty sizable.
                                                              Not if it doesn't all come at once, which it didn't.

                                                              In fact, the only move at Pinny of 5 cents or more at once was Texas from -162 to -167 yesterday afternoon.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • tatddy
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 03-02-10
                                                                • 10779

                                                                #556
                                                                Was and SF win. Tread carefully, Coin.

                                                                I can understand people betting HOU, Vogelsong and SF are wayyy to overvalued here. Line should be no more than -180. But, that said they still get it done tonight in another 1 run game most likely.

                                                                ARI could pull out a low scoring game but I'd side with the home team here.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • God1
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 07-18-11
                                                                  • 848

                                                                  #557
                                                                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                  Not if it doesn't all come at once, which it didn't.

                                                                  In fact, the only move at Pinny of 5 cents or more at once was Texas from -162 to -167 yesterday afternoon.
                                                                  completely irrelevant whether it went in 3 moves of 3 cents, 2 cents, 2 cents or 1 move of 8 cents. All that matters is what the resulting line is
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • No coincidences
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                                    • 76300

                                                                    #558
                                                                    Originally posted by God1
                                                                    completely irrelevant whether it went in 3 moves of 3 cents, 2 cents, 2 cents or 1 move of 8 cents. All that matters is what the resulting line is
                                                                    So a move from, say, -130 to -138 in one shot isn't any different than a move from -130 to -138 over the course of several hours?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • God1
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 07-18-11
                                                                      • 848

                                                                      #559
                                                                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                      So a move from, say, -130 to -138 in one shot isn't any different than a move from -130 to -138 over the course of several hours?
                                                                      no because the end result of both have the true line the same
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • No coincidences
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 01-18-10
                                                                        • 76300

                                                                        #560
                                                                        Do you believe the line the books post?

                                                                        i.e., are they "true" lines with "true" line movement, or do they sometimes bait and switch?
                                                                        Comment
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