NC 2H picks

[No coincidences]

Wednesday leans so far:

CLE -102
BOS -105
DET -103
CHC +122

CHW/LAA over 7
PHI/NYM under 9
OAK/NYY under 8.5
BOS/TEX over 9
KC/TOR under 8

[No coincidences]

He's on my fantasy team too. Dude blows.

[warriorfan707]

He's on my fantasy team too. Dude blows.

Funny thing is I can remember a few times when I needed his opponent to score a run in the 9th and the guy was just lights out.

[fitguy67]

GL for Wednesday's slate, whatever final form it may take...the gambling gods owe you at least a nice rest of the week.

[No coincidences]

Early games for Wednesday:

CLE +100 (4U)
NYM RL -129 (1U)
NYM/PHI under 9 (1U)

[No coincidences]

GL for Wednesday's slate, whatever final form it may take...the gambling gods owe you at least a nice rest of the week.

Thanks man.

[JamesBrown]

I see you're pretty confident in CLE today. I'll put some on them just for the hell of it. BOL

[No coincidences]

Leaning StL/LAD over, CIN/FLA under, and possibly Marlins as my other three afternoon plays. Nothing more than a unit on each, though.

[No coincidences]

I see you're pretty confident in CLE today. I'll put some on them just for the hell of it. BOL

I am, but I'm also struggling a little right now JB. As always, tail with caution.

[Ralphie1412]

I like you NC but I dont think anyone tails you hahahaha

[No coincidences]

Tomlin getting pounded.

The losing continues.

That first inning told the story -- again.

[No coincidences]

Adding:

FLA +102 (2U)
FLA/CIN under 8 (1U)

[tatddy]

Good job on the Pads yesterday. Even though SF was within 1 hit of winning that game (and got some horrid umpiring), the Pads were the correct side. I probably wanted you to stay away just because I was going to the game, in hindsight. I stayed far far away from wagering on that game which usually means the other side is correct, or the juice on SF is too high. I would never ever bet against SF.

[No coincidences]

106-99, -3.4U 2H
8-13, -17.9U last three days

Ugh.

Thursday:

NYY RL -109 (2U)
TB -168 (1U)
MIN -169 (1U)

Chalky afternoon plays probably not the best way to get back on track.

[No coincidences]

Good job on the Pads yesterday. Even though SF was within 1 hit of winning that game (and got some horrid umpiring), the Pads were the correct side. I probably wanted you to stay away just because I was going to the game, in hindsight. I stayed far far away from wagering on that game which usually means the other side is correct, or the juice on SF is too high. I would never ever bet against SF.

Thanks tatddy. Almost imploded on me.

[No coincidences]

Adding:

TB TT over 4 (1U)
TB RL +131 (1U)

[God1]

I'm on the opposite of all three of those. As ML today is one of the best bets ive seen this week

[No coincidences]

I'm on the opposite of all three of those. As ML today is one of the best bets ive seen this week

Probably not a bad idea given the way my past few days has gone.

GL God. Any totals?

[God1]

under twins/orioles, i got it at 9 though. there's probably still some value left at 8.5

i also had As ml yesterday so i'm freerolling the As today but I think today's line is far better than yesterdays

[No coincidences]

under twins/orioles, i got it at 9 though. there's probably still some value left at 8.5

i also had As ml yesterday so i'm freerolling the As today but I think today's line is far better than yesterdays

I just like Hughes in his current form, but I never get Harden right. When I take him, he walks 7 and blows up. I faded him today though, so you should be good to go.

[No coincidences]

Adding another unit to the Tampa TT over 4. I can get it at -110.

[God1]

I just like Hughes in his current form, but I never get Harden right. When I take him, he walks 7 and blows up. I faded him today though, so you should be good to go.

You can love Hughes and hate Harden, you are getting over 2:1 it's such an unbelievable line. Hughes has to be a significantly better pitcher than Harden for this line to be anywhere close to right. Line is off by at least 30 cents

[No coincidences]

You can love Hughes and hate Harden, you are getting over 2:1 it's such an unbelievable line. Hughes has to be a significantly better pitcher than Harden for this line to be anywhere close to right. Line is off by at least 30 cents

If the Yanks had won last night, I'd be all over this one. I just don't like taking guys who have control issues in the Bronx. Only worry is Hughes' home numbers as well, and the fact the A's pounded him in the Coliseum earlier this year. He's been looking a lot better lately, though.

What do you think about the total in that one?

[No coincidences]

Leaning Arizona, Pittsburgh and Texas for the night games.

[God1]

If the Yanks had won last night, I'd be all over this one. I just don't like taking guys who have control issues in the Bronx. Only worry is Hughes' home numbers as well, and the fact the A's pounded him in the Coliseum earlier this year. He's been looking a lot better lately, though.

Here's the thing, Harden can be bad and hughes can be good and that line is still profitable. It is pricing in at least a full earned run per 9 expected difference between the two. To me thats beyond ludicrous. You could also argue the offensive gap is being priced too high. The line was opened at -190 something and pinnacle had been getting pounded for pricing oakland too low all month

What do you think about the total in that one?

I only like to bet unders so I don't bother with yankees home games

[No coincidences]

Here's the thing, Harden can be bad and hughes can be good and that line is still profitable. It is pricing in at least a full earned run per 9 expected difference between the two. To me thats beyond ludicrous. You could also argue the offensive gap is being priced too high. The line was opened at -190 something and pinnacle had been getting pounded for pricing oakland too low all month



I only like to bet unders so I don't bother with yankees home games

Don't you think that, like the BOS/TEX line, it's that number for a reason?

[God1]

Don't you think that, like the BOS/TEX line, it's that number for a reason?

The rangers line looks pretty sharp to me, what do you mean number for a reason?

[No coincidences]

The rangers line looks pretty sharp to me, what do you mean number for a reason?

That everything you're considering as an "advantage" with Harden vs. Hughes is already factored in and that it's -225 because that's the true line? In other words, trying to find value where there isn't?

[No coincidences]

You really think Texas should be -165 given Ogando's recent form and what's happened in the last two games of this series?

I think it's -165 to lure in Boston backers.

[God1]

That everything you're considering as an "advantage" with Harden vs. Hughes is already factored in and that it's -225 because that's the true line?

If Harden and Hughes being about equal was factored in it would be about -180. Hughes is being priced as significantly better. This is why the line is wrong. The market hates oakland and has for a while and loves the yankees at home. I'm not saying every yankees home game is skewed enough to make betting the other side profitable(I think the yankees have been profitable at home this year) but this one is by a boatload

In other words, trying to find value where there isn't?

If you believe that Hughes is a far better pitcher than Harden then there is no value. There are also arguments that could be made for the offensive gap being overpriced

[God1]

You really think Texas should be -165 given Ogando's recent form and what's happened in the last two games of this series?

jesus christ dude stop letting a few games influence your entire perception of a guy or team. i'm not even going to bother with this one

I think it's -165 to lure in Boston backers.

It's -165 because that's what the market thinks. Maybe Texas should be -162 or -158 or -168 I don't know but it's definitely close enough to the true line that I wouldn't consider either side

[No coincidences]

Adding:

CHC +102 (2U)

[No coincidences]

jesus christ dude stop letting a few games influence your entire perception of a guy or team. i'm not even going to bother with this one



It's -165 because that's what the market thinks. Maybe Texas should be -162 or -158 or -168 I don't know but it's definitely close enough to the true line that I wouldn't consider either side

Ogando hasn't looked good recently. That's a fact. Boston's scored a boatload of runs the past two games. That's also a fact. Yet they're +150?

Texas wins this game comfortably.

[God1]

Ogando hasn't looked good recently. That's a fact. Boston's scored a boatload of runs the past two games. That's also a fact. Yet they're +150?

again, I'm not going to bother arguing that 3 game sample sizes are at all significant. They are +150 because they are trotting out one of the worst pitchers in baseball. The offenses are very close if not equal. It's fish like you who just see boston +150 and assume there must be something wrong. They are playing an offense that is as good or better(without youklis) and that has a much better pitcher going

Texas wins this game comfortably.

Wow what a bold statement for a -165 favorite

[No coincidences]

Wow what a bold statement for a -165 favorite

Tell that to the 60% of the bettors who are backing Boston on the ML.

Oddsmakers knew if they put the Red Sox at a ridiculously high price, people would take the bait. When's the last time you saw Boston +150-160 anywhere against anyone?