Home dog system

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  • gohabsgo
    SBR MVP
    • 03-19-10
    • 1903

    #1
    Home dog system
    I've been doing some research on http://sportsdatabase.com to find out that the most profitable bet in baseball is betting on home dogs.

    This is what i will do for the rest of the season. I'll post my plays and track my results here.

  • gohabsgo
    SBR MVP
    • 03-19-10
    • 1903

    #2
    July 14th plays:

    Baltimore: +103 Risking 48.54 to Win 50.00
    Seattle: +105 Risking 47.62 to Win 50.00
    Comment
    • gohabsgo
      SBR MVP
      • 03-19-10
      • 1903

      #3
      adding:
      Toronto +131: Risking 38.17 to Win 50.00
      Comment
      • ebbearsfb1
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 12-07-08
        • 18815

        #4
        Good luck..
        Comment
        • snapperman2
          SBR MVP
          • 08-19-10
          • 2078

          #5
          Betting on home dogs used to be a good betting strategy. However, this year you would have done better betting on road teams.
          Comment
          • ebbearsfb1
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 12-07-08
            • 18815

            #6
            Where u see that?
            Comment
            • gohabsgo
              SBR MVP
              • 03-19-10
              • 1903

              #7
              Originally posted by snapperman2
              Betting on home dogs used to be a good betting strategy. However, this year you would have done better betting on road teams.
              no with 100$ unit size, Betting on every single home dogs in 2011 you would have lost -$634 compared to losing -$834 betting against home dogs on all games. Both were losing proposition so far in 2011 because of the juice.

              link:



              BUT, since 2004 if you'd bet on all home dog games you'd won +$9,178 and losing -$36,674 betting against the home dogs (road fav basically). Still with 100$ units.

              Comment
              • gohabsgo
                SBR MVP
                • 03-19-10
                • 1903

                #8
                Originally posted by snapperman2
                Betting on home dogs used to be a good betting strategy. However, this year you would have done better betting on road teams.
                I think on the long run betting home dogs is the way to go. From 2004 to 2010 only 2009 was bad for home dogs and 2004 being a break even year. +90 units since 2004, thats the only way to systematically make money IMO.

                What i'm trying to find out now is what team should i pick, i do not want to play all home dogs games.

                Pittsburg as been the best money maker in 2009 and 2010
                Comment
                • ebbearsfb1
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-07-08
                  • 18815

                  #9
                  something like this

                  3 Rules to follow:
                  1) You must eliminate the game where the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. Remember that every baseball team face some long losing streaks as well as long winning streaks.
                  2) Eliminate games where the money line for the underdog are higher then 2.50 (+150). If this is the case, there is a reason and you must avoid these games.
                  3) Eliminate games where the underdog is facing a very good pitcher. If they’re facing a pitcher who’s in the top 20 of the MLB, move on to another selection. The pitchers standing must be according to earned-run average (ERA). Starting ERA. May 1st
                  Comment
                  • ebbearsfb1
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-07-08
                    • 18815

                    #10
                    but ur saying without a filter, betting all home dogs u would be down 834?
                    Comment
                    • gohabsgo
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-19-10
                      • 1903

                      #11
                      Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                      but ur saying without a filter, betting all home dogs u would be down 834?
                      No down $634 this year, but without a filter, betting all home dogs since 2004 up $9,178.
                      The $834 is betting against home dogs, road fav basically
                      Comment
                      • gohabsgo
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-19-10
                        • 1903

                        #12
                        Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                        something like this

                        3 Rules to follow:
                        1) You must eliminate the game where the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. Remember that every baseball team face some long losing streaks as well as long winning streaks.
                        2) Eliminate games where the money line for the underdog are higher then 2.50 (+150). If this is the case, there is a reason and you must avoid these games.
                        3) Eliminate games where the underdog is facing a very good pitcher. If they’re facing a pitcher who’s in the top 20 of the MLB, move on to another selection. The pitchers standing must be according to earned-run average (ERA). Starting ERA. May 1st
                        Thanks, where did you get this info?
                        Comment
                        • ebbearsfb1
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-07-08
                          • 18815

                          #13
                          Originally posted by gohabsgo
                          Thanks, where did you get this info?
                          had it for a while, im gonna be doing that 2nd half of the year,

                          i was gonna start earlier but didnt have the money to be gambling,

                          i know that its been successful other people in the past
                          Comment
                          • ebbearsfb1
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-07-08
                            • 18815

                            #14
                            what book do you use?

                            for me right now at bmaker all i have is the blue jays as a play
                            Comment
                            • Shark
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-14-10
                              • 1790

                              #15
                              in the end road favs wont get you anywhere so i like this.
                              Comment
                              • gohabsgo
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-19-10
                                • 1903

                                #16
                                Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                                what book do you use?

                                for me right now at bmaker all i have is the blue jays as a play
                                Pinnacle, i am canadian
                                Comment
                                • ebbearsfb1
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 12-07-08
                                  • 18815

                                  #17
                                  o okay, yea im giving this a try 2nd half of the year.. right now im only playing the blue jays
                                  Comment
                                  • ebbearsfb1
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 12-07-08
                                    • 18815

                                    #18
                                    is there a way to find out how many of the games were +1.5 winners?
                                    Comment
                                    • gohabsgo
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-19-10
                                      • 1903

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                                      is there a way to find out how many of the games were +1.5 winners?
                                      Probably, not too sure how to construct the query yet
                                      Comment
                                      • ebbearsfb1
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 12-07-08
                                        • 18815

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by gohabsgo
                                        Probably, not too sure how to construct the query yet
                                        yea im not quite sure how that site works never used it before
                                        Comment
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