He sure sounded unstable last night. I don't think it makes sense to live solely off sports investing because of the variance runs and the inability to have regular income. However, as a supplemental form of income it works great for me. I've done quite well since 2010 when I started investing in sports every day.
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It isnt easy - and I am not a millionaire from doing it....but I make enough to get by with this and a small side income - that's all I am saying. not everyone loses as is being implied in this thread.
Losers lose.
keep up the good work LTA. I dont follow or fade you but enjoy the thread.Comment -
LTA does this for free, and he doesnt claim to be anything more than a recreational gambler who makes some extra cash on the side. In addition, ANY CAPPER - pro or non pro is going to have good and bad streaks. Once again - the key is long term MM and not jumping on and off bandwagons.
it's a simple concept.Comment -
Nice work. I know first hand how hard it is to be successful in this business. It takes a lot of hard work as you need to put a ton of time in either capping or modeling and then watching the lines, trying to find out injury information before everyone else, monitoring weather, etc. If you are dedicated enough to put in the work and you are disciplined enough with your money management to not go on tilt after bad beats, then you can be profitable. The general public thinks we are "degenerates" for putting so much time in this business and say that we have an "addiction." However, if you put the same amount of time in your regular career then you are a "hard worker", "great employee", "dependable" and an "over-achiever." In reality, we are not degenerates for putting so much time in this business, we are simply successful because we put so much time in this business. Just like everything else in life, you can't be successful at sports investing unless you put in the work.Comment -
This whole business is about keeping your head above water during negative variance streaks and then capitalizing on positive variance streaks which is when you will make your money. I started off hot getting up to +18x and now I'm down 2x. I will get hot soon. I've said since day 1 that I am not a tout and just an informed, statistical/math based sports investor who will win between 53%-55% of his plays long term and end up with an ROI between 5% and 10%+.
LTA does this for free, and he doesnt claim to be anything more than a recreational gambler who makes some extra cash on the side. In addition, ANY CAPPER - pro or non pro is going to have good and bad streaks. Once again - the key is long term MM and not jumping on and off bandwagons.
it's a simple concept.
Good luck buddy.
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you too man.Comment -
Well said LTA, I have been doing this for 2-3 years now and started with a 1k roll (20$) and have build it up to 3.5k (50$) bets. It takes tons of times and dedication but with smart money management it can be done. Anyone that thinks that money will be made without effort is a fool.Comment -
So one of the most basic rules of baseball investing is that you look to fade a pitcher after he throws a no hitter/perfect game and also look to the over if the books overadjust on the total. In today's NY subway series, Santana is coming of his no-no and going up against Kuroda. Neither pitcher has unfamiliarity working for them since they have pitched in both leagues, but Santana's numbers are considerably better. The Mets gave him 6 days off to help get over the 130 pitch performance. Plus, the Mets are now at +134 which is about 14 cents of value from where my model sets it. While I would not touch the total as my model has this at 8.58, I think we are getting solid value on the Mets. I will probably pass, but if it gets into the +140 range I may have to take a shot and fade the historical trend.Comment -
Really like the TB/Miami over but did not finish working on that game until this morning and missed the move to 8. I will have to pass now but that looks like a winner to me. GL to anyone playing it.Comment -
Just a general question...if you really like a play and it moves from 7.5 to 8 would you ever still play it and risk the push? Obviously, if it moved from 8 to 8.5 it would be unplayable because you would now lose if the game lands on 8. I'm not implying that this would be a good long term play, but I'm wondering if you ever make the exception when you "really like" a play. Thanks for your input.Comment -
This whole business is about keeping your head above water during negative variance streaks and then capitalizing on positive variance streaks which is when you will make your money. I started off hot getting up to +18x and now I'm down 2x. I will get hot soon. I've said since day 1 that I am not a tout and just an informed, statistical/math based sports investor who will win between 53%-55% of his plays long term and end up with an ROI between 5% and 10%+.
Good luck buddy.
My only issue with how you handicap is you look at things almost strictly from a mathematical standpoint without really considering the intangibles. If you look at baseball from a math standpoint, then every 1 run game is the same but it just doesn't work that way. The cubs record in 1 run games is 6-15, for example. There's been a ton of games in which the cubs were facing a pitcher and an opponent with comparable advanced states across the board and the cubs lose those games at a very very high percentage. That's not a coincidence - the cubs have zero clutch hitting, they have a bad bullpen under pressure and they tend to make terrible baseball fundamental plays at the worst times to lose games
You could have a team like the cubs face an opponent with the same advanced stats and they'll still lose that game a very big percentage of the time because they just don't know how to win. That's why you gotta look at advanced stats AND things like win loss record. Stats are not going to tell you the whole story. 2 Teams could have the same run differential and 1 team could win a 100 games while the other wins 85-90 games. That's happened beforeLast edited by brahmabull117; 06-08-12, 11:10 AM.Comment -
First of all, much of the things you mentioned above are included in my model because there are advanced metrics that quantify such information. However, I never said I didn't look at everything as a whole. I've always said my model uses only quantitative data and is utilized to predict market movement. I then use my model's data and look at games from a qualitative standpoint.
I don't know what your fascination with the Cubs is or why you continue to bring them up in my thread. I assume it is because I backed them one time against the Giants when they had a better SP and comparable offensive lineup against righties. There was value in that play and you act like the Cubs will never win another game the rest of the year. Every team can make you money in the right spots.
Do you seriously think I don't look at wins/losses because I backed the Cubs one time.
Don't forget, I then faded the Cubs two days later against Greinke because of the value on the -1RL.
Last edited by Love The Action; 06-08-12, 11:22 AM.Comment -
I will make that exception in rare instances, but only if the price is comparable. For example, if I loved the Rays/Fish over I may have invested at over (8)(+105) or (+100) because that is consistent with a juiced up 7.5. However, I am not going to pay (8)(-110 or more) because that is -ev and financial suicide.Last edited by Love The Action; 06-08-12, 11:20 AM.Comment -
First of all, much of the things you mentioned above are included in my model because there are advanced metrics that quantify such information. However, I never said I didn't look at everything as a whole. I've always said my model uses only quantitative data and is utilized to predict market movement. I then use my model's data and look at games from a qualitative standpoint.
I don't know what your fascination with the Cubs is or why you continue to bring them up in my thread. I assume it is because I backed them one time against the Giants when they had a better SP and comparable offensive lineup against righties. There was value in that play and you act like the Cubs will never win another game the rest of the year. Every team can make you money in the right spots.
Do you seriously think I don't look at wins/losses because I backed the Cubs one time. Don't forget, I then faded the Cubs two days later against Greinke because of the value on the -1RL.
I am only bringing up the cubs because they are the epitome of terrible fundamentals/intangibles. You can replace them with the Padres or any other similarly awful team and my point would be the same. Also exactly my point about better SP and comparable offensive numbers...they still lost because they don't know how to win baseball games. They've done that all season - the mathematical analysis lies in that case
Like I said, I think you would have much better results if you considered those kind of things more often and also if you looked at recent results more than just overall season stats. The problem with overall mathematical analysis is that a team could start the season as playing brilliant baseball the first month then go in the toilet and look nothing like that team anymore. If you do strictly mathematical analysis, you will get a much more favorable image of that team than how they're really playing at that time. That's why I'm baffled when you say "trends don't matter". Trends indicate the confidence and momentum a team is playing with. Teams go through ups and downs all the time throughout the course of the season and following those trends can help you identify when a team is about to go hot or when a team is about to start a nasty slideComment -
LTA, I'm curious as to where your model has the Rangers. I wish I'd cap that yesterday as there was tons of value but I'm not sure there is now at -1RL -118Comment -
haha i nominated that, and it isn't shown, and now i'm getting 'cannot nominate the same post twice'.....just lol at that post though. i appreciate it while you're still around LTA, i hope you keep posting.
edit: the lol is at brahmas couple paragraphs, if that wasn't clear.Comment -
curious as to why you're not backing your boyfriend Arrieta against light hitting Phils lineupComment -
Good luck LTA, I love your Rangers -1 play tonight. I have 4 units at a similar price. I hope your boy is doing well.Comment -
Posey and Cabrera are not in the starting lineup for the Giants tonight.
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This douche doesn't buy picks.. he uses shill name "easy money" to promote his own selling site..
He tries to sell picks by name "scott stylze" and he is pathetic... No one buys his picks so he comes on various forums and posts his own plays.. alter his records to show more win but whenever he posts his plays he is in red.. lol
Biggest a'hole on planet lolComment -
for anybody that may have tailed LTA on the sox/nats under, this ump seems to have a generous strike zone so far, at least for felixComment -
Dont usually bet on MLB because I don't know enough about it but tailed on the nats/soxs under.. on a little losing streak now...Comment -
Your boy Moore is getting some early action already
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