LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/21/11

Play #1

Angels ML (-160) 1.4x (Locked)

I think this price is stealing money. By mid-morning tomorrow, you will see this price at -180 ish. Haren has been a bit up and down of late, but his WAR of 6.2 is supremely impressive...so much so that he's ranked #6 out of all pitchers in the entire league. On the other side, you will have McGowan who has been unimpressive career minor league type guy. Most of the Angels hitters have faced him in the past, so he's not bringing anything special to the table. Situationally, this is a must win type game for the Angels. I generally don't play a lot of "juicy" games, but in this case the -160 price is a steal. I'm rolling with the Angels for 1.4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Tampa Bay ML (+108) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to pounce on the opener and couldnt believe I got this price for Shields. As soon as I locked it in, it went down five cents to +103. I wasnt the only one waiting to pound the rays...almost wish I took them for 2x at that price. Good luck.

Play #3

Brewers/Cubs under (10)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Wow...this number is a huge overreaction to the wind. Its not blowing out that hard and is only projected to get up to the 12mph range. Even with that wind, this total should not exceed 9. I think Garza pitches really well and Wolf will know to keep the ball down. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I had wanted to wait for more weather info, but oinny started to move toward the under and I wanted to preserve even odds for this one. Good luck.

Play #5

Royals ML (+107) 1x (Locked)

Geez...I hate playing anything after all the value has been sucked out, but I think KC has a great shot at winning. The Tigers are pitching both Sherzer and Fister in what is basically a practice game. I don't expect the Tigers to play with much intensity. On the other side, the Royals are playing for pride and for jobs, plus they have been hot. Generally, I give very little weight to motivational angles in baseball because MLB is primarily stat drive with respect to investing, however, in this case I think the Tigers approach this game lazily and that will get you beat in the pros. Sherzer has been killed by this Royals lineup in the past and they know what to expect. On the other side, we always look for spots to back Paulino and without Cabrera in the lineup this presents as good a spot as any. The Royals have been raking lately and I expect that to continue tonight. I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

[alamo]

What happened that the line was so low...I don't see a score.

The Angles failed to score at top of the 1st so thats why the line went from odds on to Even money.

They scored top of the third now so Angels 1-0 up. Its just a mechanism I use to beat the juice. Well worth looking at bud !

[guil0000]

What happened that the line was so low...I don't see a score.

They move lines pretty drastically between half inning. which I'm not sure is always warrented . I also saw them at -115 in the middle of the first. That being said I bought back half my bet on the angels at +170 on the jays when they had a guy on 3rd because Mcgowen looks pretty damn good tonight.

[alamo]

They move lines pretty drastically between half inning. which I'm not sure is always warrented . I also saw them at -115 in the middle of the first. That being said I bought back half my bet on the angels at +170 on the jays when they had a guy on 3rd because Mcgowen looks pretty damn good tonight.

Yeah the books get waayy too excited too early at these games. They see a base hit and the line moves way too much. A half inns can see a line move by almost a point which is crazy given that its only 1/18th of the game gone. Well worth trading these games in running boys.

[Love The Action]

The Angles failed to score at top of the 1st so thats why the line went from odds on to Even money.

They scored top of the third now so Angels 1-0 up. Its just a mechanism I use to beat the juice. Well worth looking at bud !

They move lines pretty drastically between half inning. which I'm not sure is always warrented . I also saw them at -115 in the middle of the first. That being said I bought back half my bet on the angels at +170 on the jays when they had a guy on 3rd because Mcgowen looks pretty damn good tonight.

Yeah the books get waayy too excited too early at these games. They see a base hit and the line moves way too much. A half inns can see a line move by almost a point which is crazy given that its only 1/18th of the game gone. Well worth trading these games in running boys.

Thanks guys...

I don't currently have access to live betting (may in the near future), so it's not really an applicable tool for me right now but it sounds as though you have mitigate any extra risk provided by the live lines and found a way to make it profitable.

[Donnie Brasco]

Angels looking good despite the line movement against you LTA. I also appreciate ur point of view that no matter the outcome of the game, the play was the wrong one. But you have had some bad breaks over the last month with bullpen collapses so if the angels come thru just chalk it up to karma brother! Good luck! I been reading into all these advanced pitching stats you guys refer to regularly. I found "fangraphs". Great site, but i am finding it hard not to get lost in all the info. Any advice for a total novice capper?

[Love The Action]

Angels looking good despite the line movement against you LTA. I also appreciate ur point of view that no matter the outcome of the game, the play was the wrong one. But you have had some bad breaks over the last month with bullpen collapses so if the angels come thru just chalk it up to karma brother! Good luck! I been reading into all these advanced pitching stats you guys refer to regularly. I found "fangraphs". Great site, but i am finding it hard not to get lost in all the info. Any advice for a total novice capper?

First, you should read through the glossary and understand what goes into the various stats and how they are derived.

You can't really use what fangraphs provides without understanding what the stats represent and how they should be employed.

I would also recommend that you read "Moneyball" for a better understanding of sabermetrics.

There are also useful advanced stats for other sports as well. For basketball, I recommend "Basketball on Paper" and for football I recommend "Hidden Game of Football."

Hope that helps

[Redscot]

Angels looking good despite the line movement against you LTA. I also appreciate ur point of view that no matter the outcome of the game, the play was the wrong one. But you have had some bad breaks over the last month with bullpen collapses so if the angels come thru just chalk it up to karma brother! Good luck! I been reading into all these advanced pitching stats you guys refer to regularly. I found "fangraphs". Great site, but i am finding it hard not to get lost in all the info. Any advice for a total novice capper?

Babip and runners left in scoring position are key numbers to look at. They quantify to a degree the "luck" a pitcher is having. Anyone who watch's games knows that some games a pitcher is getting hammered but the balls are hit straight at the defense. Conversely other games the pitcher is dominating and the balls trickle between fielders and he gives up runs.

In this day and age you have stats that pretty much do it for you. Siera and xfip are probably the two most accurate numbers into what the pitcher is really going through. NOTHING replaces watching the game imo, but obviously that is a tall order.

There are a number of subtle things you can look at too. Fangraphs has the pitches that each pitcher uses, the percentage that they throw it and the mph on it. They even have it broken down game to game. It can lead to paralysis through analysis, as you alluded to,so I would suggest starting with focusing on the pitchers siera, xfip to get rolling. If you see a pitcher with an era of 5.53 and he has a Siera of 3.97 you can make the assumption that he has been unlucky and probably should pitch better. Conversely a pitcher with a 3.04 era and a 4.32 era (yeah, I'm looking at you Kyle Kendrick) can be expected to have diminishing returns.

This was all pretty much stream of conscience, hope it makes sense, bullpens are another STRONG consideration. Gotta give up the computer to my son so will leave it at that for now.

[No coincidences]

Classic huge line drop then late bounceback win coming for the Angels LTA.

Same thing that happened to you know who with his "play of the month" on the O's last week.

You think you beat the closer, but it's only in theory. Someone bought LAA down then hammered them late.

[Redscot]

Play #5

Royals ML (+107) 1x (Locked)

Geez...I hate playing anything after all the value has been sucked out, but I think KC has a great shot at winning. The Tigers are pitching both Sherzer and Fister in what is basically a practice game. I don't expect the Tigers to play with much intensity. On the other side, the Royals are playing for pride and for jobs, plus they have been hot. Generally, I give very little weight to motivational angles in baseball because MLB is primarily stat drive with respect to investing, however, in this case I think the Tigers approach this game lazily and that will get you beat in the pros. Sherzer has been killed by this Royals lineup in the past and they know what to expect. On the other side, we always look for spots to back Paulino and without Cabrera in the lineup this presents as good a spot as any. The Royals have been raking lately and I expect that to continue tonight. I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

He is so maddening. 7 K's through 4 but he will be lucky to finish 6 innings. If he could harness his stuff he could be a legit 3 starter for a good team. Royals made a great trade acquiring him, he's young and they gave up nothing...still, some guys never get it....we'll see.

edit: keep your eye on Sal Perez, kid is for real. His Offense will drop ,but his D is better than his CS% suggests.

[Love The Action]

Classic huge line drop then late bounceback win coming for the Angels LTA.

Same thing that happened to you know who with his "play of the month" on the O's last week.

You think you beat the closer, but it's only in theory. Someone bought LAA down then hammered them late.

Interesting...that was such a huge drop though, with not nearly as much rise on the back end. Why would they bet more on Toronto and less on the Angels?

[Redscot]

Watching the Braves, Boston, St Louis(tonight) really illustrates how in baseball you can't just "impose your will" like in other sports. Basketball, Football, Boxing, (I assume Hockey), the dominant team/individual can impose its will when it needs to for the most part, there is more control over destiny. Baseball is a bitch. If you don't have a dominant pitcher going, you are at the mercy of so very many variables.

[No coincidences]

And that's why you'll always be betting $20 a game my friend. How about laying -245 on the sox tomorrow? bad bet?

Wonder how much this fool lost chasing the same bet tonight.

Classic.

[BennyFang]

Watching the Braves, Boston, St Louis(tonight) really illustrates how in baseball you can't just "impose your will" like in other sports. Basketball, Football, Boxing, (I assume Hockey), the dominant team/individual can impose its will when it needs to for the most part, there is more control over destiny. Baseball is a bitch. If you don't have a dominant pitcher going, you are at the mercy of so very many variables.

Well put....so true.

[Love The Action]

Watching the Braves, Boston, St Louis(tonight) really illustrates how in baseball you can't just "impose your will" like in other sports. Basketball, Football, Boxing, (I assume Hockey), the dominant team/individual can impose its will when it needs to for the most part, there is more control over destiny. Baseball is a bitch. If you don't have a dominant pitcher going, you are at the mercy of so very many variables.

Pitching is the name of the game...case in point the Giants last year...

[815Sox]

Thanks for the plays as always LTA. I got on the Cubs Under and Angels. I couldn't go against Detroit. I got burned many times going against them this year. They have proved me wrong more than once this year.

[No coincidences]

Royals doing their best to make sure they lose this one.

[SilverTongueFox]

Yeah sucks cause I need Royals to win to hit my 4 teamer parlay. If they would just pitch around V Martinez its probably a winner. Got 2 more ABs so never know. Here we go Royals.

[Redscot]

Pitching is the name of the game...case in point the Giants last year...

No doubt brother, it is the common denominator in success. And what is pitching in it's essence.....Defense. I am a firm believer that defense wins over offense in sports over the long haul. Defense doesn't go hot and cold like offense does. Offense is more aptitude and defense attitude.

[No coincidences]

Impressive debut by that KC reliever. Two pitches, 8 seconds, Tigers lead.

[Redscot]

Yeah sucks cause I need Royals to win to hit my 4 teamer parlay. If they would just pitch around V Martinez its probably a winner. Got 2 more ABs so never know. Here we go Royals.

Had the Royals ml and under.....shaping up to be a banner night for me, , damn. At least I had the Mets over 1st 5 and game. Bad night though, bad night. Tomorrow is another day.

[Redscot]

Impressive debut by that KC reliever. Two pitches, 8 seconds, Tigers lead.

I want him dead!

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/22/11

Play #1

Giants/Dodgers under (6.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I think this one goes down to 6 by Thursday morning so I'm going to jump on a juicy 6.5 now. Kuroda got knocked around by the Giants last week and most people will be taking the over because of it. However, we know better based on Kuroda's solid advanced stats and this being a perfect bounce back spot. MBaum is a top 10 MLB guy and I look to back him wherever possible. The Giants got a dose of dominant lefty on Tuesday and the Dodgers will get a similar dose on Thursday. The wind is projected to blow out slightly at around 6 mph so I do not expect that to factor into the final score. The ump is solid under guy in Wolf, who has a strike rate over 63%. I'm rolling with the under for 1x for now, with a possible addition to our stake down the road if warranted. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Yeah sucks cause I need Royals to win to hit my 4 teamer parlay. If they would just pitch around V Martinez its probably a winner. Got 2 more ABs so never know. Here we go Royals.

That sucks bud...

It's always that last leg of a large payout parlay that teases you and looks like a winner right up until the end of the game...

I hope they come through for you.

GL

[alvinho]

MLB 9/21/11

Play #1

Giants/Dodgers under (6.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I think this one goes down to 6 by Thursday morning so I'm going to jump on a juicy 6.5 now. Kuroda got knocked around by the Giants last week and most people will be taking the over because of it. However, we know better based on Kuroda's solid advanced stats and this being a perfect bounce back spot. MBaum is a top 10 MLB guy and I look to back him wherever possible. The Giants got a dose of dominant lefty on Tuesday and the Dodgers will get a similar dose on Thursday. The wind is projected to blow out slightly at around 6 mph so I do not expect that to factor into the final score. The ump is solid under guy in Wolf, who has a strike rate over 63%. I'm rolling with the under for 1x for now, with a possible addition to our stake down the road if warranted. Good luck.

you mean 9/22, right?

btw thanks again for all your picks

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/22/11

Play #1

Giants/Dodgers under (6.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I think this one goes down to 6 by Thursday morning so I'm going to jump on a juicy 6.5 now. Kuroda got knocked around by the Giants last week and most people will be taking the over because of it. However, we know better based on Kuroda's solid advanced stats and this being a perfect bounce back spot. MBaum is a top 10 MLB guy and I look to back him wherever possible. The Giants got a dose of dominant lefty on Tuesday and the Dodgers will get a similar dose on Thursday. The wind is projected to blow out slightly at around 6 mph so I do not expect that to factor into the final score. The ump is solid under guy in Wolf, who has a strike rate over 63%. I'm rolling with the under for 1x for now, with a possible addition to our stake down the road if warranted. Good luck.

Play #2

Angels/Blue Jays under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

You have Santana going for the Angels against the young pup Alvarez for Toronto. LAA has never seen Alvarez before and that's going to be to his advantage. I like with the kid has done so for this year and I think he gives us a quality start. Santana's WAR over 3 tells shows this guy is getting done for the Angels this year and this is a crucial spot for the Angels. Santana himself is in a good bounce back spot after giving up five runs in his last two innings against Balty and NY. I don't think we see a repeat of those performances on Thursday. McCelland is the ump, which really sucks because of his strong over lean, but I really agree with my model on this one which has this total set at 7.8. It's going to take a final score over 9 to beat us and I just don't think we see it, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

you mean 9/22, right?

btw thanks again for all your picks

Thanks for heads up about the typo

[pacocn]

lta, bought my angels bet back after i saw that
huge line movmt in favor of toronto, things could
ve been worse, i pushed

[alvinho]

staying up late to bet these now, lines always suck in the morning

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/21/11

3 - 2 = +1.4x

MLB Season 2011

404 - 364 = +37.015x

That Yankees comeback against us late in the early game ended up costing us a huge night. Oh well, we've been getting some nice breaks finally so I can't complain. Onto Thursday...

I will have my first few NCAAF plays posted tomorrow if all goes as expected with the line.

I just posted my second NFL play of the week here http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...l#post11541677

I'm off to bed...Good luck!

[No coincidences]

Interesting the Angels are only -115 tomorrow LTA.

[BigDan]

Watching the Braves, Boston, St Louis(tonight) really illustrates how in baseball you can't just "impose your will" like in other sports. Basketball, Football, Boxing, (I assume Hockey), the dominant team/individual can impose its will when it needs to for the most part, there is more control over destiny. Baseball is a bitch. If you don't have a dominant pitcher going, you are at the mercy of so very many variables.

we all know im a stl homer but this had to have been a premature ejaculation. cards have imposed their will on everyone lately. yea Furcal made a error but their d been great as of late., Garcia a headcase bt after the meltdown he kept Cards in it knowing they would score...Motte screwed me as i been playing them -1.5 this series but ti pretty ovious they have imposed their will this last month and will prob continue to do so against cubs and astros. Braves/red sox a dif storey, Braves have no will and a beat up staff and Bos just beat up...

Hello everyone, Hope all is well. You know this time of year baseball only interest me if Cards are relevant

[No coincidences]

Hello everyone, Hope all is well. You know this time of year baseball only interest me if Cards are relevant

What do you think about Thursday's StL game?

[bigballer891]

Play #2

Angels/Blue Jays under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

You have Santana going for the Angels against the young pup Alvarez for Toronto. LAA has never seen Alvarez before and that's going to be to his advantage. I like with the kid has done so for this year and I think he gives us a quality start. Santana's WAR over 3 tells shows this guy is getting done for the Angels this year and this is a crucial spot for the Angels. Santana himself is in a good bounce back spot after giving up five runs in his last two innings against Balty and NY. I don't think we see a repeat of those performances on Thursday. McCelland is the ump, which really sucks because of his strong over lean, but I really agree with my model on this one which has this total set at 7.8. It's going to take a final score over 9 to beat us and I just don't think we see it, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

I like this one LTA, but think first 5 under may be the stronger play. Its well known toronto has one of the worst bullpens in baseball and its not likely alvarez goes more than 6.

[hawley]

Interesting the Angels are only -115 tomorrow LTA.

Looks a bit easy to me.

Angels need it though.