LTA's MLB Plays

**Dexter** · 09-20-11, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Where is the edge between Lincecum and Kershaw. They are both so dominant....

kershaw is in ridiculous form right now - i trust the dodger bats much more then the giant bats to get a few runs.

**Dexter** · 09-20-11, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Agree? Disagree? Seems like the public likes the SD/COL over.

how come you stopped keeping a thread with your plays?

**Gio21** · 09-20-11, 07:31 PM

Angels over cashes in the 4th!

**guil0000** · 09-20-11, 07:41 PM

Got to love those european books... just got SD /COL U 8.5 -110. at 8 -117 on pinnacle atm.

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by God1

public loves the under. 46% on an under at coors field is quite rare

You don't really think it's public money moving a total at Coors Field from 8.5 (-105) on the under at Pinny's open to 8 (-117) on the under at Pinny's close...right?

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by guil0000

Got to love those european books... just got SD /COL U 8.5 -110. at 8 -117 on pinnacle atm.

Good job

Now let's hope it hits

**God1** · 09-20-11, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

You don't really think it's public money moving a total at Coors Field from 8.5 (-105) on the under at Pinny's open to 8 (-117) on the under at Pinny's close...right?

Why would I not think that's the case? I have no idea whether the money that moved the line was sharp or whale or public or whatever and neither does anyone else unless they work for pinnacle. There are plenty of games with 20% on a side and it moves against that side and vice versa

I couldn't resist a sizable position on the over at 8

you do realize that if I or you or mother theresea bet the max on a game or total it would move

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by God1

Why would I not think that's the case? I have no idea whether the money that moved the line was sharp or whale or public or whatever and neither does anyone else unless they work for pinnacle. There are plenty of games with 20% on a side and it moves against that side and vice versa

I couldn't resist a sizable position on the over at 8

you do realize that if I or you or mother theresea bet the max on a game or total it would move

This was a total at Coors Field, which are treated specially and already have an additional price built in on the over.
This total moved from 8.5(-105) to 8 (-117) on the under which is a HUGE move on the under for Coors Field.
According to SI, there was only 38% of all bets on the under, not the 46% that was mentioned. I believe 46% was a citation to Scores/Odds which only uses info from Sportsbook.com, not a large representative sample of multiple books.
If you think a total ever moves this large such as this total, without some sharp/big or whatever you want to call it money, then you are being naieve. Pinny doesn't move that big, without someone they respect backing the under.

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

how come you stopped keeping a thread with your plays?

It was cursed.

**God1** · 09-20-11, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

This was a total at Coors Field, which are treated specially and already have an additional price built in on the over.

Yes totals are park adjusted. About the most obvious statement you could make
This total moved from 8.5(-105) to 8 (-117) on the under which is a HUGE move on the under for Coors Field.

**God1** · 09-20-11, 08:38 PM

I, personally, have moved lines on pinnacle futures with a max bet. It was a very seldom used account. 8 cent move off a max bet(the max on these was only 500 it was an nfl wins over/under if i remember correctly)

The max on a total is 10k. If you bet 10k you would move the line at least 5 cents. I know of one "non-sharp" who's max bets move MLs on average 5 cents and I know one other "sharp" whose half-max bets move it the same amount

**God1** · 09-20-11, 08:40 PM

You are just wrong in saying that dumb money can't move a total or a line 20+ cents. You can believe whatever you want

Anyone, *anyone*, with enough money to make a max bet or a decent fraction of a max bet will move the line. If you don't believe me, make a pinnacle account and try it out for yourself

**Gio21** · 09-20-11, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

This was a total at Coors Field, which are treated specially and already have an additional price built in on the over.
This total moved from 8.5(-105) to 8 (-117) on the under which is a HUGE move on the under for Coors Field.
According to SI, there was only 38% of all bets on the under, not the 46% that was mentioned. I believe 46% was a citation to Scores/Odds which only uses info from Sportsbook.com, not a large representative sample of multiple books.
If you think a total ever moves this large such as this total, without some sharp/big or whatever you want to call it money, then you are being naieve. Pinny doesn't move that big, without someone they respect backing the under.

What site is SI? Thanks in advance!!

**God1** · 09-20-11, 08:47 PM

This is just a ridiculous argument because I talk from direct knowledge and you argue from what you personally believe to be the case

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 08:49 PM

You still on the Dodgers and A's God?

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 08:54 PM

Nice clutch start from Edwin Jackson.

Should've taken that over.

**God1** · 09-20-11, 08:55 PM

yes, not a good price on either though

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 09:00 PM

Matchbook just moved Texas/Oakland to -148/+147.

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by God1

Yes totals are park adjusted. About the most obvious statement you could make

Which emphasizes the enormity of the move.

It's a huge move for any total

Especially for one at Coors.

I was also using SI which uses 6 books. 38% on the under is still well above what % is usually on a coors under(20-25%)

So there was more overall bets on the over, but $20 public bets were moving the total downward?

This is flat out wrong sorry to say. Anyone with 20k could move a total 10 cents[/list]

Exactly, which was included in my statement where I said "sharp/big or whatever you want to call it." I understand your point in that we don't know who is actually betting the under. It could be dumbass Floyd Mayweather putting down $40K or Billy Walters himself pounding the under. Nevertheless, with slightly more bets on the over, I think it's naieve to say that it was solely the "public" moving a Coors Field total from 8.5 (-105) to 8.5 (-117) without some sort of respectable wager on it as well.

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 09:03 PM

Books daring you to take the SF/LAD over.

**God1** · 09-20-11, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Which emphasizes the enormity of the move.

Especially for one at Coors.

So there was more overall bets on the over, but $20 public bets were moving the total downward?

Exactly, which was included in my statement where I said "sharp/big or whatever you want to call it." I understand your point in that we don't know who is actually betting the under. It could be dumbass Floyd Mayweather putting down $40K or Billy Walters himself pounding the under. Nevertheless, with slightly more bets on the over, I think it's naieve to say that it was solely the "public" moving a Coors Field total from 8.5 (-105) to 8.5 (-117) without some sort of respectable wager on it as well.

Of course there's more money going on the under, that's why it moves. But neither you nor I have ANY clue if it's dumb money or sharp money. And it's just futile to argue over this

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by God1

I, personally, have moved lines on pinnacle futures with a max bet. It was a very seldom used account. 8 cent move off a max bet(the max on these was only 500 it was an nfl wins over/under if i remember correctly)

The max on a total is 10k. If you bet 10k you would move the line at least 5 cents. I know of one "non-sharp" who's max bets move MLs on average 5 cents and I know one other "sharp" whose half-max bets move it the same amount

I'm happy for you.

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by God1

You are just wrong in saying that dumb money can't move a total or a line 20+ cents. You can believe whatever you want

Anyone, *anyone*, with enough money to make a max bet or a decent fraction of a max bet will move the line. If you don't believe me, make a pinnacle account and try it out for yourself

Please put all your thoughts on one subject in the same post. These multiple posts all concerning the same topic is ridiculous.

I never said "dumb" money can't move a line. In fact, quite the opposite.

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by God1

This is just a ridiculous argument because I talk from direct knowledge and you argue from what you personally believe to be the case

Don't you get that it's multiple max bets that are moving a Coors Field total as much as it did today. That's a syndicate type move. Again, I understand your point respecting our inability to ever truly know what is behind a line move. However, as the Supreme Court said about pornography, "you know it when you see it." In this case, such a move like this at Coors, consisted of at least some sharp money. With a move like that, in relation to where the overall bets lie, I know it when I see it.

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 09:21 PM

NC...Nice call on your live Yankees bet at great price

**fitguy67** · 09-20-11, 09:25 PM

i'm enjoying the banter on this thread...i'm relatively new to the sports-investing thing...the probability and statistics angle has been easy for me to grasp (i teach that stuff) as is the importance of conservative bet-sizing (what people call $-management)...

but the whole "line movement analysis" thing is a fascinating foreign language...thanks to you, LTA and the regulars like NC, God, Redscot et. al. i'm starting to pick up some of the key ideas from the "give and take", especially over these last few pages...every little "bone of contention" that pops up helps to clarify some of the issues for me...even tho' the discussion gets a bit "snippy" at times, it's generally on topic and educative...

think I'll stay tuned to this, and your other "channels" too, LTA, cuz i get the "line movement analysis" issues spelled out (and squabbled over)...fascinating

**God1** · 09-20-11, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Don't you get that it's multiple max bets that are moving a Coors Field total as much as it did today. That's a syndicate type move. Again, I understand your point respecting our inability to ever truly know what is behind a line move. However, as the Supreme Court said about pornography, "you know it when you see it." In this case, such a move like this at Coors, consisted of at least some sharp money. With a move like that, in relation to where the overall bets lie, I know it when I see it.

So you assume that every time there's a move that makes a small public side more expensive it must be a syndicate move. welcome to the reverse line movement cult. The fact that that under at coors kept getting bet down is no more significant than when a team playing at yankees stadium gets bets down or a +200 dog gets bet down. I'm done arguing this though, it goes nowhere when person argues from the side of their own personal theory and the other by reality

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 09:29 PM

Cardinals have just been awful tonight.

**God1** · 09-20-11, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

i'm enjoying the banter on this thread...i'm relatively new to the sports-investing thing...the probability and statistics angle has been easy for me to grasp (i teach that stuff) as is the importance of conservative bet-sizing (what people call $-management)...

but the whole "line movement analysis" thing is a fascinating foreign language...thanks to you, LTA and the regulars like NC, God, Redscot et. al. i'm starting to pick up some of the key ideas from the "give and take", especially over these last few pages...every little "bone of contention" that pops up helps to clarify some of the issues for me...even tho' the discussion gets a bit "snippy" at times, it's generally on topic and educative...

think I'll stay tuned to this, and your other "channels" too, LTA, cuz i get the "line movement analysis" issues spelled out (and squabbled over)...fascinating

whoa, do not listen to NC and his line movement betting theories. that is a recipe for disaster

that's the same guy who once said he would like a team more if it moved to -103 than at the current price of +103

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 09:32 PM

Anyone like the Cubs tomorrow afternoon?

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by God1

So you assume that every time there's a move that makes a small public side more expensive it must be a syndicate move. welcome to the reverse line movement cult. The fact that that under at coors kept getting bet down is no more significant than when a team playing at yankees stadium gets bets down or a +200 dog gets bet down. I'm done arguing this though, it goes nowhere when person argues from the side of their own personal theory and the other by reality

"Come on man" ...you didn't have to go there

It's reality that the majority of the money came in on the under, fast, furious and intense moving this Coors Field total significantly. Sounds exactly like the public...

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by God1

whoa, do not listen to NC and his line movement betting theories. that is a recipe for disaster

that's the same guy who once said he would like a team more if it moved to -103 than at the current price of +103

Can you not go 5 seconds without trying to piss someone off on this site?

I said I would add to a bet at -103 if I already got them at +103 and was confident in the play and it meshed with my system. You just described following late steam, which I do not do.

**Love The Action** · 09-20-11, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by God1

whoa, do not listen to NC and his line movement betting theories. that is a recipe for disaster

I don't think he bets solely on the line movement...right NC?

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 09:38 PM

Did McClellan seriously just walk in the lead run on 4 pitches?

Wow.

**No coincidences** · 09-20-11, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I don't think he bets solely on the line movement...right NC?

I just don't get this guy.

He knows his stuff -- that much is obvious. But there are three caveats: 1) he thinks there is only one way to win a bet, and that is his way; 2) he never thinks he could possibly be wrong about anything, and 3) he thinks he knows way more than he actually does about how this game works.

He said something interesting last night about Boston being the best play on the board. I'll have to dig up the quote. To say that a reeling team with Bedard on the mound laying -245 was the best play on the board, well, I rest my case.