LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Why isn't the matchup between the old men in the Braves/Marlins game tomorrow up at Pinny/5D?

[God1]

It has been for a while...-123/-116

[Love The Action]

It has been for a while...-123/-116

I should have clarified....talking about the total.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/21/11

Play #1

Angels ML (-160) 1.4x (Locked)

I think this price is stealing money. By mid-morning tomorrow, you will see this price at -180 ish. Haren has been a bit up and down of late, but his WAR of 6.2 is supremely impressive...so much so that he's ranked #6 out of all pitchers in the entire league. On the other side, you will have McGowan who has been unimpressive career minor league type guy. Most of the Angels hitters have faced him in the past, so he's not bringing anything special to the table. Situationally, this is a must win type game for the Angels. I generally don't play a lot of "juicy" games, but in this case the -160 price is a steal. I'm rolling with the Angels for 1.4x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Charlie Morton pitched well tonight just as we expected. Unfortunately, now the game is with that Pirates bullpen for the last three innings. ...

[SilverTongueFox]

LTA, curious how you decide on units played? 1.4 on the Angels tomorrow seems different than your normal 1u or 1.5u. Good luck bro!

[hardball]

you've got it backwards, quantative to sides and market to totals

Typo corrected.

None the less, the more inefficient market of totals seem to be your thing.

Do you ever dabble in props?

[God1]

Typo corrected.

None the less, the more inefficient market of totals seem to be your thing.

Do you ever dabble in props?

No I wouldn't dream of betting into 8 cent juice or even attempting to beat it

[fly fisher]

MLB 9/21/11

Play #1

Angels ML (-160) 1.4x (Locked)

I think this price is stealing money. By mid-morning tomorrow, you will see this price at -180 ish. Haren has been a bit up and down of late, but his WAR of 6.2 is supremely impressive...so much so that he's ranked #6 out of all pitchers in the entire league. On the other side, you will have McGowan who has been unimpressive career minor league type guy. Most of the Angels hitters have faced him in the past, so he's not bringing anything special to the table. Situationally, this is a must win type game for the Angels. I generally don't play a lot of "juicy" games, but in this case the -160 price is a steal. I'm rolling with the Angels for 1.4x. Good luck.

My book already has it listed at -175 so I will lay off of it. Good luck to the rest of you though. Maybe I will play it in a parlay.

[815Sox]

Alright Pirate and D-Backs, you have made it interesting. Now you can just finish it up without any more.

[pacocn]

Lta, great day

[hardball]

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 9/20/11

5 - 2 = +2.9x

MLB Season 2011

401 - 362 = +35.615x

Off to bed...good luck on Wednesday.

[EdV38]

Haren's a good pitcher but not against the Jays and especially not in Toronto. In 5 starts lasting 32 innings he's given up 8 bombs and has a 6.47 ERA at Rogers Centre. The incredible thing is he's still 3-0 so who knows maybe the bet is still right.

McGowan isn't a career minor leaguer so much as he is a career DL type of guy. As a Jays fan I know he's got great stuff but he's had absolutely no control in his return back, but anyone can see that in his walk rate.

My conclusion is over 8.5 is the best play for tomorrow.

[esbenp]

Thanks for the plays LTA. It was a great night!

[fitguy67]

sport betting is digital, asset investing is analog...BUT the same philosophical/technical debate exists...between fundamental (ie. "value") approache and technical (ie. price-flow) approaches...

Successful investors acknowledge and exploit the validity of each (generally using fundamental-analysis to help decide the macro-level position to take...and technicals=line-movement analysis to provide micro-confirmation of it and/or to help micro-tune the entry level). Weather forecasters do likewise (using fundamental=seasonal-regression analysis to set parameters for a forecast and real-time data for the "rubber meets road" details).

Seems to me that LTA and NC are aiming toward such an eclectic, pragmatic integrated approach...acknowledging and using both the macro and micro features of the sport-betting market...

God seems to dogmatically deny the usefulness of real-time data anaysis...

I'll weigh in on the side of a soldier bearing two weapons vs. one and the weather forecaster looking at up to the minute data as well as seasonal equations. Such forecasts are much more robust/flexible. Ignoring real-time market- (or environment-)generated data opens us up unnecessarily to disaster. When real-time micro-movements are not-confirming or even refuting the fundamental models...they warn us from further committing to an increasingly-questionable fundamental decision...or even consider bailing out of or even reversing the position.

I think that looking for line-movement confirmation of our leans, as NC and LTA advocate, is the sensible equivalent to the asset player looking for a resumption of the trend he wants to exploit, after the counter-trend move that gave him a nice buying opportunity.

Maybe I've oversimplified God's message, but not as blatantly as he dismissed NC's (as "he's the guy who....")...

[italianbandit]

Hey fitguy,

Thanks for an interesting post. I wonder if you could expand on what you mean by analog and digital comparisons to investing. By this are you referring to binary nature of winning and losing in sports betting as opposed to the increasing or diminishing value of an asset?

[Supaman]

great day yesterday LTA u know what your talking about great job

[Love The Action]

Haren's a good pitcher but not against the Jays and especially not in Toronto. In 5 starts lasting 32 innings he's given up 8 bombs and has a 6.47 ERA at Rogers Centre. The incredible thing is he's still 3-0 so who knows maybe the bet is still right.

McGowan isn't a career minor leaguer so much as he is a career DL type of guy. As a Jays fan I know he's got great stuff but he's had absolutely no control in his return back, but anyone can see that in his walk rate.

My conclusion is over 8.5 is the best play for tomorrow.

Good luck on your over play!

However, surely you are not suggesting that 32 innings is enough of a representative sample for a pitcher as good as Haren, to make any sort of determination as to how he will pitch tonight....right?

Whether or not he is 3-0 or 0-3, or has given up 1 HR or 20 HR, means very little over such a small sample as 32 innings. Moreover, none of that has any bearing on whether this is the "right" play.

I think this is a great play because of the price, which I feel is a little more than 20 cents off of where this game should be priced and where I thiink the closing number will end up. If you can pick up 20 cents on a ML play, that's a golden ticket my friend.

You are right about McGowan and the DL. He has not pitched in two years because of injury. However, even before that, he was up and down from the minor leagues since 2005. It was not until 2007 and 2008 that he actually found some consistency and ability to stay an extended period of time in the majors. Nevertheless, this guy has never posted a SIERA under 4.2, except for 2007 when he was in the high 3's. Compare that to Haren, who has never posted a SIERA above a 3.9 except for his first two years in 2003 and 2004. I don't even need to go through McGowan's control problems because you note them above.

McGowan was a big minor league performer, who could never produce in the majors. Just look at his strikeout numbers, the guy had a K% in high 20's even low 30's in the minors but when he was promoted to the majors, his K% dropped to the 15% range.

Finally, even though Haren has not fared great against the Blue Jays in the past, that was primarily due to the production of Bautista and Encarnacion against Haren. If you take those two guys out of the equation, the rest of lineup he will face tonight has not even sniffed solid numbers against Haren.

I think you are thinking more like a fan than an impartial analyst if you think McGowan is comparable to Haren. The Angels should roll tonight to an easy victory. Good luck.

[Redscot]

MLB Recap 9/20/11

5 - 2 = +2.9x

MLB Season 2011

401 - 362 = +35.615x

Off to bed...good luck on Wednesday.

Attaboy LTA On fire my man, keep up the good work.

[Donnie Brasco]

Great work

[Trivial]

Great night last night LTA! Got Angels this morning at -162.

[EdV38]

Good luck on your over play!

However, surely you are not suggesting that 32 innings is enough of a representative sample for a pitcher as good as Haren, to make any sort of determination as to how he will pitch tonight....right?

Whether or not he is 3-0 or 0-3, or has given up 1 HR or 20 HR, means very little over such a small sample as 32 innings. Moreover, none of that has any bearing on whether this is the "right" play.

I think this is a great play because of the price, which I feel is a little more than 20 cents off of where this game should be priced and where I thiink the closing number will end up. If you can pick up 20 cents on a ML play, that's a golden ticket my friend.

You are right about McGowan and the DL. He has not pitched in two years because of injury. However, even before that, he was up and down from the minor leagues since 2005. It was not until 2007 and 2008 that he actually found some consistency and ability to stay an extended period of time in the majors. Nevertheless, this guy has never posted a SIERA under 4.2, except for 2007 when he was in the high 3's. Compare that to Haren, who has never posted a SIERA above a 3.9 except for his first two years in 2003 and 2004. I don't even need to go through McGowan's control problems because you note them above.

McGowan was a big minor league performer, who could never produce in the majors. Just look at his strikeout numbers, the guy had a K% in high 20's even low 30's in the minors but when he was promoted to the majors, his K% dropped to the 15% range.

Finally, even though Haren has not fared great against the Blue Jays in the past, that was primarily due to the production of Bautista and Encarnacion against Haren. If you take those two guys out of the equation, the rest of lineup he will face tonight has not even sniffed solid numbers against Haren.

I think you are thinking more like a fan than an impartial analyst if you think McGowan is comparable to Haren. The Angels should roll tonight to an easy victory. Good luck.

That's a great rebuttal and that's why I come here to read your posts. Who knows, maybe the Angels will win 6-5 tonight and we both win

As far as being a fan thing, I do have to debate that point with you. As a fan, I recalled "Hey wait a minute, I remember seeing the Jays take Haren apart several times before". Turns out I was right, it's just that Angels hitters happen to take out Toronto pitching even more so every time. Being able to dissect stats is excellent. But you can't discount continuous watching of one team as well. That's just my opinion though.

My favourite team in the NFL is the Raiders and my buddy's favourite team is the Bills. Last week I still conceded that the Bills were gonna win by 3.5. Of course they only win by 3. But at least that shows I have the ability to turn off the homer glasses when it comes to capping!

[EdV38]

BTW, if you take Bautista, Encarnacion (and now Lawrie) out of this line up on ANY night, the opposing team has a great chance to win, not just Haren. I've never seen so many bush league players play for such an extended period of time on such a good offensive team. I swear, the Jays are half Yankees half Twins looking at their lineup day in day out.

[Redscot]

That's a great rebuttal and that's why I come here to read your posts. Who knows, maybe the Angels will win 6-5 tonight and we both win

As far as being a fan thing, I do have to debate that point with you. As a fan, I recalled "Hey wait a minute, I remember seeing the Jays take Haren apart several times before". Turns out I was right, it's just that Angels hitters happen to take out Toronto pitching even more so every time. Being able to dissect stats is excellent. But you can't discount continuous watching of one team as well. That's just my opinion though.

My favourite team in the NFL is the Raiders and my buddy's favourite team is the Bills. Last week I still conceded that the Bills were gonna win by 3.5. Of course they only win by 3. But at least that shows I have the ability to turn off the homer glasses when it comes to capping!

Hey there Ed, Jet fan here. What do you think of this Sundays game? Jets LB's are solid in plugging holes and blitzing but can be exploited by speed (McFadden worries me here, doesn't seem like you guys have the TE that would give them too much trouble). With out going into too much detail here in the baseball section, I am concerned and think the Raiders have a god shot at home of covering that 3 1/2. Opinions?

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/21/11

Play #1

Angels ML (-160) 1.4x (Locked)

I think this price is stealing money. By mid-morning tomorrow, you will see this price at -180 ish. Haren has been a bit up and down of late, but his WAR of 6.2 is supremely impressive...so much so that he's ranked #6 out of all pitchers in the entire league. On the other side, you will have McGowan who has been unimpressive career minor league type guy. Most of the Angels hitters have faced him in the past, so he's not bringing anything special to the table. Situationally, this is a must win type game for the Angels. I generally don't play a lot of "juicy" games, but in this case the -160 price is a steal. I'm rolling with the Angels for 1.4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Tampa Bay ML (+108) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to pounce on the opener and couldnt believe I got this price for Shields. As soon as I locked it in, it went down five cents to +103. I wasnt the only one waiting to pound the rays...almost wish I took them for 2x at that price. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Wow...my same local that opened thee rays at +108 now has -101... Sweet....

[Redscot]

Wow...my same local that opened thee rays at +108 now has -101... Sweet....

I wonder if thereis some flip-flopping going on with the starters. Shields over getting juiced and Helickson's under, both at 8 1/2.

edit: ok seems it's Hughes in 1st and Sabathia in second,makes sense now

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/21/11

Play #1

Angels ML (-160) 1.4x (Locked)

I think this price is stealing money. By mid-morning tomorrow, you will see this price at -180 ish. Haren has been a bit up and down of late, but his WAR of 6.2 is supremely impressive...so much so that he's ranked #6 out of all pitchers in the entire league. On the other side, you will have McGowan who has been unimpressive career minor league type guy. Most of the Angels hitters have faced him in the past, so he's not bringing anything special to the table. Situationally, this is a must win type game for the Angels. I generally don't play a lot of "juicy" games, but in this case the -160 price is a steal. I'm rolling with the Angels for 1.4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Tampa Bay ML (+108) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to pounce on the opener and couldnt believe I got this price for Shields. As soon as I locked it in, it went down five cents to +103. I wasnt the only one waiting to pound the rays...almost wish I took them for 2x at that price. Good luck.

Play #3

Brewers/Cubs under (10)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Wow...this number is a huge overreaction to the wind. Its not blowing out that hard and is only projected to get up to the 12mph range. Even with that wind, this total should not exceed 9. I think Garza pitches really well and Wolf will know to keep the ball down. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[EdV38]

I'm leaning towards a no-play on the Jets/Raiders game. Despite the TD's McFadden wasn't as dominant as I expected him to be yards-wise yet they still managed to put up 35 points. But I don't expect Campbell to put up 300+ yards this week. I think it'll be a close game that could go either way with respect to the point spread.

I think this week has a lot more safe plays than that particular game.

[Redscot]

Now I'm seeing Noesi game 1...............

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/21/11

Play #1

Angels ML (-160) 1.4x (Locked)

I think this price is stealing money. By mid-morning tomorrow, you will see this price at -180 ish. Haren has been a bit up and down of late, but his WAR of 6.2 is supremely impressive...so much so that he's ranked #6 out of all pitchers in the entire league. On the other side, you will have McGowan who has been unimpressive career minor league type guy. Most of the Angels hitters have faced him in the past, so he's not bringing anything special to the table. Situationally, this is a must win type game for the Angels. I generally don't play a lot of "juicy" games, but in this case the -160 price is a steal. I'm rolling with the Angels for 1.4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Tampa Bay ML (+108) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to pounce on the opener and couldnt believe I got this price for Shields. As soon as I locked it in, it went down five cents to +103. I wasnt the only one waiting to pound the rays...almost wish I took them for 2x at that price. Good luck.

Play #3

Brewers/Cubs under (10)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Wow...this number is a huge overreaction to the wind. Its not blowing out that hard and is only projected to get up to the 12mph range. Even with that wind, this total should not exceed 9. I think Garza pitches really well and Wolf will know to keep the ball down. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I had wanted to wait for more weather info, but oinny started to move toward the under and I wanted to preserve even odds for this one. Good luck.

[Rose']

Hey guys why did they take the TB vs NYY off the board?

[Love The Action]

Now I'm seeing Noesi game 1...............

I would have rather faced hughes, but I'm not worried. I played shields/action, so my play stands as long as shields starts. I figured this would be a possibility because of hughes' back spasms, but noesi won't be able to go more than 5 innings. Tampa should hit today and wih them facing cc later, they know this first game is crucial.

[firehoyt]

Idk I've got game two up but not one and I wanted to jump on TB. Damn RBW