LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

LTA. I am in the same boat.

Can't beat every closer...although I always try. I just misread the market on this one a little bit. It's ok bud... I still think we cash.

[hawley]

Lines been jumping around a bit in the last few minutes.

Looks like we wont beat the closer but juice may be on the under.

[Love The Action]

Lines been jumping around a bit in the last few minutes.

Looks like we wont beat the closer but juice may be on the under.

Yeah...it was a bit weird. My sharper local book where I made the original wager closed at -115, so I only lost -5 cents in comparison to that closing line. Pinny closed at -109, so that wasn't quite as painless. Most interestingly is that Greek opened at -120 and never moved off of that. Hmmm...

Good luck Hawley...let's cash it

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/23/11

Play #1

Marlins/Brewers under (8) 3.5x (Locked)

I was ready to go as soon as my local opened up Friday's lines. My model has this one at 6.9, more than 1 run variance between the opening number. Both pitchers have been dominant of late and both bullpens are two of the best. On the offensive end, neither offense has been very productive of late and both teams are on huge under runs. Volstad has been very consistent in the second half of the season. In his last ten games, he has not given up more than four runs, with most games under four. In his last five games, he only gave more than 2 runs in one game. Gallardo is also a beast with outstanding advanced stats. I won't go through them all, but both pitchers have high marks in the most important categories. The weather should be a non-factor since they are playing in Milwaukee and the ump is unknown at this time. I don't think it matters with this one. I have this one at 6.9 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to lose, so I'm rolling with the under for 3.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/23/11

Play #1

Marlins/Brewers under (8) 3.5x (Locked)

I was ready to go as soon as my local opened up Friday's lines. My model has this one at 6.9, more than 1 run variance between the opening number. Both pitchers have been dominant of late and both bullpens are two of the best. On the offensive end, neither offense has been very productive of late and both teams are on huge under runs. Volstad has been very consistent in the second half of the season. In his last ten games, he has not given up more than four runs, with most games under four. In his last five games, he only gave more than 2 runs in one game. Gallardo is also a beast with outstanding advanced stats. I won't go through them all, but both pitchers have high marks in the most important categories. The weather should be a non-factor since they are playing in Milwaukee and the ump is unknown at this time. I don't think it matters with this one. I have this one at 6.9 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to lose, so I'm rolling with the under for 3.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

LAA/Oakland under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I generally try to stay away from such juicy totals, but I don't think 7 will be around for very long. I expect Weaver to be on point tomorrow and Gonzalez to be pumped in facing off of Weaver. Both pitchers have performed very well against the other's lineup and I expect the same to continue on Friday. I won't go through all the advanced stats, but Weaver is a top 10 MLB guy and Gio is in the top 30-50 in most categories -- My model has this one at 6.3 and it's going to take a score of 8 to beat us, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Nice day LTA! Already on ur 9-23 picks! Keep it rolling! Good luck

[Love The Action]

I just posted my third NFL play for this week http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...l#post11556189

[hawley]

Onto tomorrow, Bumgarner doesnt have it today.

[No coincidences]

I ended up jumping on the Dodgers late for a unit. Of course, I have the under too, so it looks like I'll just squeak out a little profit.

I noticed something in the TT's right before the game -- even though the Dodgers' ML kept climbing, their TT stayed steady and even got juiced a little more on the over. SF's TT got juiced heavy on the under last minute (went from like -107 to -125).

This is a classic case of books possibly manipulating a line. Knowing the public would be heavy on the Giants, they juiced the shit out of them all day long on the ML and then sharps swooped in and picked up the Dodgers right before first pitch (+126 to +121 in the last three minutes). Just a theory.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/23/11

Play #1

Marlins/Brewers under (8) 3.5x (Locked)

I was ready to go as soon as my local opened up Friday's lines. My model has this one at 6.9, more than 1 run variance between the opening number. Both pitchers have been dominant of late and both bullpens are two of the best. On the offensive end, neither offense has been very productive of late and both teams are on huge under runs. Volstad has been very consistent in the second half of the season. In his last ten games, he has not given up more than four runs, with most games under four. In his last five games, he only gave more than 2 runs in one game. Gallardo is also a beast with outstanding advanced stats. I won't go through them all, but both pitchers have high marks in the most important categories. The weather should be a non-factor since they are playing in Milwaukee and the ump is unknown at this time. I don't think it matters with this one. I have this one at 6.9 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to lose, so I'm rolling with the under for 3.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

LAA/Oakland under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I generally try to stay away from such juicy totals, but I don't think 7 will be around for very long. I expect Weaver to be on point tomorrow and Gonzalez to be pumped in facing off of Weaver. Both pitchers have performed very well against the other's lineup and I expect the same to continue on Friday. I won't go through all the advanced stats, but Weaver is a top 10 MLB guy and Gio is in the top 30-50 in most categories -- My model has this one at 6.3 and it's going to take a score of 8 to beat us, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cubs/Cardinals under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to support the old timers in this game. Don't have time for much of a writeup on this one as I have a lot of work on all the upcoming MLB, NFL and NCAAF action, but I will say that I expect an intense game on Friday between these two long time rivals. The Cubs want to play spoilers and the Cards desperately need a win. Both pitcher should be sharp and use their veteran experience to their advantage in how to approach these hitters. Carpenter's WAR of 4.4 and Dempster's of 3 illustrate these guys' value and I expect their numbers to correlate into success on Friday. The Cubs are not hitting all that great at the moment and are streaking unders right now. The Cardinals are coming off inflated overs after playing the Mets and their horrible bullpen. I think you will see the majority of all bets on the over in this one but the juice will end up on the under. The wind is expected to be blowing lightly across the field. All of this points to the under and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Just added my fourth NFL play for this week http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...l#post11556189

[No coincidences]

Love the Tampa play LTA.

Love it.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 9/22/11

1 - 1 = -0.2x

MLB Season 2011

405 - 365 = +36.815x

Baumgarner just didn't have it and cost us a nice 2x day...no worries, onto Friday and a big day!

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/23/11

Play #1

Marlins/Brewers under (8) 3.5x (Locked)

I was ready to go as soon as my local opened up Friday's lines. My model has this one at 6.9, more than 1 run variance between the opening number. Both pitchers have been dominant of late and both bullpens are two of the best. On the offensive end, neither offense has been very productive of late and both teams are on huge under runs. Volstad has been very consistent in the second half of the season. In his last ten games, he has not given up more than four runs, with most games under four. In his last five games, he only gave more than 2 runs in one game. Gallardo is also a beast with outstanding advanced stats. I won't go through them all, but both pitchers have high marks in the most important categories. The weather should be a non-factor since they are playing in Milwaukee and the ump is unknown at this time. I don't think it matters with this one. I have this one at 6.9 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to lose, so I'm rolling with the under for 3.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

LAA/Oakland under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I generally try to stay away from such juicy totals, but I don't think 7 will be around for very long. I expect Weaver to be on point tomorrow and Gonzalez to be pumped in facing off of Weaver. Both pitchers have performed very well against the other's lineup and I expect the same to continue on Friday. I won't go through all the advanced stats, but Weaver is a top 10 MLB guy and Gio is in the top 30-50 in most categories -- My model has this one at 6.3 and it's going to take a score of 8 to beat us, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cubs/Cardinals under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to support the old timers in this game. Don't have time for much of a writeup on this one as I have a lot of work on all the upcoming MLB, NFL and NCAAF action, but I will say that I expect an intense game on Friday between these two long time rivals. The Cubs want to play spoilers and the Cards desperately need a win. Both pitcher should be sharp and use their veteran experience to their advantage in how to approach these hitters. Carpenter's WAR of 4.4 and Dempster's of 3 illustrate these guys' value and I expect their numbers to correlate into success on Friday. The Cubs are not hitting all that great at the moment and are streaking unders right now. The Cardinals are coming off inflated overs after playing the Mets and their horrible bullpen. I think you will see the majority of all bets on the over in this one but the juice will end up on the under. The wind is expected to be blowing lightly across the field. All of this points to the under and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Off to bed...exhausted. I am looking at two or three more plays for Friday, but I'm going to hold off until tomorrow morning. I think we may be able to get a bit better price tomorrow. Good luck!

[No coincidences]

Off to bed...exhausted. I am looking at two or three more plays for Friday, but I'm going to hold off until tomorrow morning. I think we may be able to get a bit better price tomorrow. Good luck!

Hard to juggle multiple sports at once.

Good luck LTA.

[815Sox]

Really like the Marlins Play and the Oakland play!

[tonyp0387]

Damn that Florida total is juiced now on its way to 7.5 imo,

[Supaman]

GJ lta

[Trivial]

Nice. Locked into all 3.

[Redscot]

I liked the under in that game a whole lot more than the side, but I thought Westbrook was overpriced in relation to Capuano's stats. Nevertheless, Cards deserved to win...what a bad beat. Why did you guys go so big on that one though?

Red -- don't worry about the last two days bro...you've been killing the local lately so it's good to give a little back so he don't boot ya.

Right on man . I think I was more pissed at a few bets I made that if I had't won big the previous week I would not have made. Keeping disciplined is so vital in betting and I went off track a bit. As for the Cards bet, I bet two units on it because I felt they had serious momentum in their favor. That coupled with my slow book still having it at -170 made it a bigger bet than usual. Non-juiced Pinny close was -181, so all in all I am ok with that bet, just a bad beat, they happen.

Looking forward to another big weekend my man....liking what I am seeing from your plays so far.....thanks for putting in so much work .

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/23/11

Play #1

Marlins/Brewers under (8) 3.5x (Locked)

I was ready to go as soon as my local opened up Friday's lines. My model has this one at 6.9, more than 1 run variance between the opening number. Both pitchers have been dominant of late and both bullpens are two of the best. On the offensive end, neither offense has been very productive of late and both teams are on huge under runs. Volstad has been very consistent in the second half of the season. In his last ten games, he has not given up more than four runs, with most games under four. In his last five games, he only gave more than 2 runs in one game. Gallardo is also a beast with outstanding advanced stats. I won't go through them all, but both pitchers have high marks in the most important categories. The weather should be a non-factor since they are playing in Milwaukee and the ump is unknown at this time. I don't think it matters with this one. I have this one at 6.9 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to lose, so I'm rolling with the under for 3.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

LAA/Oakland under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I generally try to stay away from such juicy totals, but I don't think 7 will be around for very long. I expect Weaver to be on point tomorrow and Gonzalez to be pumped in facing off of Weaver. Both pitchers have performed very well against the other's lineup and I expect the same to continue on Friday. I won't go through all the advanced stats, but Weaver is a top 10 MLB guy and Gio is in the top 30-50 in most categories -- My model has this one at 6.3 and it's going to take a score of 8 to beat us, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cubs/Cardinals under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to support the old timers in this game. Don't have time for much of a writeup on this one as I have a lot of work on all the upcoming MLB, NFL and NCAAF action, but I will say that I expect an intense game on Friday between these two long time rivals. The Cubs want to play spoilers and the Cards desperately need a win. Both pitcher should be sharp and use their veteran experience to their advantage in how to approach these hitters. Carpenter's WAR of 4.4 and Dempster's of 3 illustrate these guys' value and I expect their numbers to correlate into success on Friday. The Cubs are not hitting all that great at the moment and are streaking unders right now. The Cardinals are coming off inflated overs after playing the Mets and their horrible bullpen. I think you will see the majority of all bets on the over in this one but the juice will end up on the under. The wind is expected to be blowing lightly across the field. All of this points to the under and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Toronto/TB under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Morrow will have his revenge tonight and pitch well after getting shelled a few weeks ago by tb. Price will be his usual consistent self. The advanced stats are off the chart for both. The game is in tb so that helps the under. I'm in a bit of a rush, so I'm going to wrap it up and roll with the under for 1x....may also add to this one. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Which book do you use LTA? I cannot get the odds you post, just the number of runs. Thanks.

[Trivial]

Btw.. Thanks so much for the great picks!

[Love The Action]

Which book do you use LTA? I cannot get the odds you post, just the number of runs. Thanks.

I use local books out of the midwest.

One book uses lines that are similar to 5d and pinny. The other book is a bit more square and has lines similar to legends. As long as you have access to those types of lines, you should be able to get the same odds as me provided that you lock them in when I post.

BOL

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. I guess timing is everything. I usuay see the picks next morning and out of my 4 books, I still dont see those lines. Thanks.

[SilverTongueFox]

LTA, didn't see your NCAA football picks. You got any winners tomorrow?

[Love The Action]

Hey guys...having a lot of problems with my phone battery and wifi connection. Might not be able to post the rest of my plays for today but I will try. I will have some ncaaf pays but may not be able to post them. We'll see...i will try but I'm going out after work and it may be tough. Good luck to everyone tonight.

[guil0000]

LTA you think the dogs in 3 of your unders have legitimate shots tonight. Oakland, Florida and Toronto. I highlighted all 3 on todays card.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/23/11

Play #1

Marlins/Brewers under (8) 3.5x (Locked)

I was ready to go as soon as my local opened up Friday's lines. My model has this one at 6.9, more than 1 run variance between the opening number. Both pitchers have been dominant of late and both bullpens are two of the best. On the offensive end, neither offense has been very productive of late and both teams are on huge under runs. Volstad has been very consistent in the second half of the season. In his last ten games, he has not given up more than four runs, with most games under four. In his last five games, he only gave more than 2 runs in one game. Gallardo is also a beast with outstanding advanced stats. I won't go through them all, but both pitchers have high marks in the most important categories. The weather should be a non-factor since they are playing in Milwaukee and the ump is unknown at this time. I don't think it matters with this one. I have this one at 6.9 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to lose, so I'm rolling with the under for 3.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

LAA/Oakland under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I generally try to stay away from such juicy totals, but I don't think 7 will be around for very long. I expect Weaver to be on point tomorrow and Gonzalez to be pumped in facing off of Weaver. Both pitchers have performed very well against the other's lineup and I expect the same to continue on Friday. I won't go through all the advanced stats, but Weaver is a top 10 MLB guy and Gio is in the top 30-50 in most categories -- My model has this one at 6.3 and it's going to take a score of 8 to beat us, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cubs/Cardinals under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to support the old timers in this game. Don't have time for much of a writeup on this one as I have a lot of work on all the upcoming MLB, NFL and NCAAF action, but I will say that I expect an intense game on Friday between these two long time rivals. The Cubs want to play spoilers and the Cards desperately need a win. Both pitcher should be sharp and use their veteran experience to their advantage in how to approach these hitters. Carpenter's WAR of 4.4 and Dempster's of 3 illustrate these guys' value and I expect their numbers to correlate into success on Friday. The Cubs are not hitting all that great at the moment and are streaking unders right now. The Cardinals are coming off inflated overs after playing the Mets and their horrible bullpen. I think you will see the majority of all bets on the over in this one but the juice will end up on the under. The wind is expected to be blowing lightly across the field. All of this points to the under and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Toronto/TB under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Morrow will have his revenge tonight and pitch well after getting shelled a few weeks ago by tb. Price will be his usual consistent self. The advanced stats are off the chart for both. The game is in tb so that helps the under. I'm in a bit of a rush, so I'm going to wrap it up and roll with the under for 1x....may also add to this one. Good luck.

Play #5

Dodgers ML (-115) 1x (Locked)

No time for wtiteups and phone still messed up, but the dodgers are the better team, the hotter team, they have the better pitcher and better offense, all at a decent price. I have this one at -125, so we are getting ten cents in value. I'm rolling wirh the dodgers for 1x. Good luck.

[SilverTongueFox]

LTA, check your pm. I sent you a gift. Let me know if you are not interested and I want bother sending each week. BOL!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF plays have been posted

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/1239549-ltas-ncaaf-plays-p6.html#post11564667

Good luck!

[Louisvillekid1]

Just wanted to say thanks been tailing for a while and you made me a few bucks...

[fergie's balls]

LTA - love the Brewers/Marlins under, on it hard. thanks for the work and time put in.

[Love The Action]

I'm out for the night..if not for the rain, I would have probably played the under in the braves/nats and philly/mets games. The rain makes those no plays...good luck tonight!

[adamo1018]

You forgot about the Indians White Sox under 8 1/2. Masterson at home tonight...