Shut Out System

**pagodo** · 07-27-11, 10:33 AM

I started playing with the season in full swing, so I can't say, maybe zeusky will remember.

It's really been an incredible run for the faders lately. I am way up at the moment and I'm playing lots of tails as well, so I understand you're also comfortably in the black, thelimit

Weird that there have been as many as five system losses quite quickly in the year and now we're full two months without one. Looking at the past years' stats, there is a strong possibility we might get to the end of the season without any more losses.

**pagodo** · 07-28-11, 09:17 AM

UPDATE
Thursday, 7/28

Shutouts on Wednesday (7/27):
TOR vs BAL, 3-0
MIL vs ChC, 2-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Plays for 7/28:
fade Baltimore, game 1
fade Ch Cubs, game 1

Game 1: 106-107
Game 2: 59-48
Game 3: 23-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (212-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (7/27)

tail Tampa Bay, game 3

tail Toronto, game 2

Plays for 7/28:
tail Tampa Bay, game 4
tail Toronto, game 1
tail Milwaukee, game 1

Game 1: 106-107
Game 2: 58-49
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 8-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (208-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**pagodo** · 07-29-11, 05:13 AM

UPDATE
Friday, 7/29

No shutouts on Thursday (7/28) ...

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (7/28)

fade Baltimore, game 1

fade Ch Cubs, game 1

No plays for 7/29.

Game 1: 108-107
Game 2: 59-48
Game 3: 23-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (214-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (7/28)

tail Tampa Bay, game 4

tail Toronto, game 1

tail Milwaukee, game 1

No plays for 7/29.

Game 1: 108-107
Game 2: 58-49
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 9-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (211-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**GGPLAYER** · 07-29-11, 08:46 AM

We need some shutouts!

**thelimit0310** · 07-29-11, 12:02 PM

I agree GG, however it's always nice when all the bets clear!! Hopefully some teams take a kick to the teeth tonight!

**Richta Bean** · 07-29-11, 02:09 PM

yea anyday where the lines clear is a good day but it would be nice to have at least a couple of plays

**goodone** · 07-30-11, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

I agree GG, however it's always nice when all the bets clear!! Hopefully some teams take a kick to the teeth tonight!

Indeed mate, action is less important than having your bets cleared regularly (from investment point of view). From action point of view, yeah sure, it sucks when there are no plays, but always remember, in my opinion, what separates smart investors from gamblers is that smart investors love clearing bets instead and move slowly but steady forward and gamblers look for action.

Again, sure, I do understand that lack of action sucks but just wanted to give my point of view and how I feel about sportsbetting.

**pagodo** · 07-30-11, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by goodone

What separates smart investors from gamblers is that smart investors love clearing bets instead and move slowly but steady forward and gamblers look for action.

So true!

UPDATE
Saturday, 7/30

Shutouts on Friday (7/29):
KC @ CLE, 12-0
ATL vs FLA, 5-0
MIL vs HOU, 4-0
TB @ SEA, 8-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Plays for 7/30:
fade Florida, game 1
fade Cleveland, game 1
fade Houston, game 1
fade Seattle, game 1

Game 1: 108-107
Game 2: 59-48
Game 3: 23-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (214-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Plays for 7/30:
tail Atlanta, game 1
tail Kansas City, game 1
tail Milwaukee, game 1
tail Tampa Bay, game 1

Game 1: 108-107
Game 2: 58-49
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 9-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (211-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**thelimit0310** · 07-30-11, 10:21 AM

Well said Goodone! I'm playing JM's pick today (Boston) for the B bet, skipped the A bet the juice was just too much. Good shutouts today too!

**pagodo** · 07-31-11, 06:43 AM

UPDATE
Sunday, 7/31

Shutouts on Saturday (7/30):
WSH vs NYM, 3-0
TEX @ TOR, 3-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (7/30)

fade Florida, game 1

fade Cleveland, game 1

fade Houston, game 1

fade Seattle, game 1

Plays for 7/31:
fade Cleveland, game 2
fade Seattle, game 2
fade NY Mets, game 1
fade Toronto, game 1

Game 1: 110-109
Game 2: 59-48
Game 3: 23-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (216-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (7/30)

tail Atlanta, game 1

tail Kansas City, game 1

tail Milwaukee, game 1

tail Tampa Bay, game 1

Plays for 7/31:
tail Kansas City, game 2
tail Tampa Bay, game 2
tail Washington, game 1
tail Texas, game 1

Game 1: 110-109
Game 2: 58-49
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 9-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (213-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**pagodo** · 08-01-11, 09:00 AM

UPDATE
Monday, 8/1

Shutouts on Sunday (7/31):
CIN vs SF, 9-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (7/31)

fade Cleveland, game 2

fade Seattle, game 2

fade NY Mets, game 1

fade Toronto, game 1

Plays for 8/1:
fade San Francisco, game 1
(pending: fade TOR g2)

Game 1: 111-110
Game 2: 61-48
Game 3: 23-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (219-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (7/31)

tail Kansas City, game 2

tail Tampa Bay, game 2

tail Washington, game 1

tail Texas, game 1

Plays for 8/1:
tail Cincinnati, game 1
(pending: tail TEX g2)

Game 1: 111-110
Game 2: 60-49
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 9-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (216-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**pagodo** · 08-02-11, 12:33 AM

UPDATE
Tuesday, 8/2

No shutouts on Monday (8/1).

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/1)

fade San Francisco, game 1

Plays for 8/2:
fade Toronto, game 2

Game 1: 112-110
Game 2: 61-48
Game 3: 23-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (220-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/1)

tail Cincinnati, game 1

Plays for 8/2:
tail Texas, game 2
tail Cincinnati, game 2

Game 1: 111-111
Game 2: 60-49
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 9-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (216-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**zeusky** · 08-02-11, 07:27 AM

Originally posted by pagodo

I started playing with the season in full swing, so I can't say, maybe zeusky will remember.

It's really been an incredible run for the faders lately. I am way up at the moment and I'm playing lots of tails as well, so I understand you're also comfortably in the black, thelimit

Weird that there have been as many as five system losses quite quickly in the year and now we're full two months without one. Looking at the past years' stats, there is a strong possibility we might get to the end of the season without any more losses.

Sorry for the late reply-- have been traveling and still continuing; I believe it has happened a couple of times in the first couple of months. GL all.

**thelimit0310** · 08-02-11, 09:36 AM

Just a quick question hopefully one of you veterans here can answer, does this system close at the end of August or are we playing until late Sept? I know a lot of systems close down when August is over, does that rule go for Shut Out?

Thanks guys and good luck!

**nitsuj378** · 08-02-11, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Just a quick question hopefully one of you veterans here can answer, does this system close at the end of August or are we playing until late Sept? I know a lot of systems close down when August is over, does that rule go for Shut Out?

Thanks guys and good luck!

Not a veteran by any means but I will not be starting any new series with any of the systems I play after Aug 31st. I'm sure money can be made in September but I think risk increases to a degree. This also allows focus to shift to football (for those of you bet it).

Good luck
Justin

**dantanner** · 08-02-11, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by mitchp

First let me say that I did not come up with this, I read this in another thread and thought it would be an interesting system to test and track. I have not tested this other than some visual review of a few teams during last season. I have no idea if it actually works, but somewhere I read that the record last year was 285-3.

Here's how it work: Once a team is shut-out, you bet that that team will lose it's next game. If it doesn't, you chase it for up to 5 more games till it wins (6 game chase).

Now I do not have the bank to do a 6 games, so I'm going to just run a separate labby per team for the season, while tracking the success of a chase.

To date there have been 5 shut-out, all chases won on either the A or B bet.

So we will start today, 4/7, there were two shut-out. Here is how I wil list things:

4/7 - Boston (0-1), bet Yankees to win SU on 4/8 (A)
4/7 - NY Mets (0-11), bet on Washington to win SU on 4/8 (A)

If anyone has a better idea how to list the plays, I'm open to suggestions.

Good Luck to me and all that follow.

I like the way the system sounds, but really you are just using the shutout as a starting point for betting against a six game streak. i would bet you can find a lot of starting points, like the first game after a sweep, etc., that would work just as well.

Maybe bet a team to win the first game after a sweep and chase for five. Using that kind of chase you will win the vast majority of the time.

Thanks for what you are doing....

**dantanner** · 08-02-11, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by goodone

Indeed mate, action is less important than having your bets cleared regularly (from investment point of view). From action point of view, yeah sure, it sucks when there are no plays, but always remember, in my opinion, what separates smart investors from gamblers is that smart investors love clearing bets instead and move slowly but steady forward and gamblers look for action.

Again, sure, I do understand that lack of action sucks but just wanted to give my point of view and how I feel about sportsbetting.

Well said. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all.

**pagodo** · 08-02-11, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by nitsuj378

Not a veteran by any means but I will not be starting any new series with any of the systems I play after Aug 31st. I'm sure money can be made in September but I think risk increases to a degree. This also allows focus to shift to football (for those of you bet it).

Good luck
Justin

When I was looking through past seasons' results for system losses I should have also written down when exactly did they take place. On the other hand I'm sure that only two of them happened in September. Looking at past results of this strategy, the risk is pretty much the same no matter the month. I'll be playing and putting updates up until Thursday, September 22nd when we'll have only six games of the regular season to go.

I also like to call it a strategy and however random it may seem, I'm making money on it, it does not require any capping and it barely ever loses, so I just stopped thinking too much about it and went with the flow

**nitsuj378** · 08-02-11, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by pagodo

When I was looking through past seasons' results for system losses I should have also written down when exactly did they take place. On the other hand I'm sure that only two of them happened in September. Looking at past results of this strategy, the risk is pretty much the same no matter the month. I'll be playing and putting updates up until Thursday, September 22nd when we'll have only six games of the regular season to go.

I also like to call it a strategy and however random it may seem, I'm making money on it, it does not require any capping and it barely ever loses, so I just stopped thinking too much about it and went with the flow

Sounds good. Whatever works for you. With minor league call ups and teams falling out of playoff contention your risk may increase even if its the slightest bit. I am up just over 100 units this season and this is homestretch and im looking to protect my profit. But like I said to each their own. I hope you crush September and Ill keep following to see how things are going.

**pagodo** · 08-02-11, 12:29 PM

Many thanks and good luck!
Congrats on +100u, very nice, most cappers in the country would love to be in your place this season.

Actually, I'll run a quick check on system losses in the month of September and I'll post the results in a few days. Let's keep this thread as legit as possible

**DustyDiamond** · 08-02-11, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Just a quick question hopefully one of you veterans here can answer, does this system close at the end of August or are we playing until late Sept? I know a lot of systems close down when August is over, does that rule go for Shut Out?

Thanks guys and good luck!

I think some of the previous back testing that people did included the month to September. I could be wrong though. We could stop starting new series on Aug 31 and just track the month of September for future years?

**pagodo** · 08-03-11, 12:37 AM

I can't decide what to do with that NYY@CWS game. A shutout, but in a 6.5-inning game. Do we stick to it, make it unofficial or drop it?

*

UPDATE
Wednesday, 8/3

Shutouts on Tuesday (8/2):
PHI @ COL, 5-0
LAD @ SD, 1-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/2)

fade Toronto, game 2

Plays for 8/3:
fade Toronto, game 3
fade Colorado, game 1
fade San Diego, game 1

Game 1: 112-110
Game 2: 61-49
Game 3: 23-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (220-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/2)

tail Texas, game 2

tail Cincinnati, game 2

Plays for 8/3:
tail Texas, game 3
tail Philadelphia, game 1
tail LA Dodgers, game 1

Game 1: 111-111
Game 2: 61-50
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 9-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (217-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**zeusky** · 08-04-11, 07:20 AM

Sorry for the late reply again; I only get to check these in the morning as I am traveling--- the system should hold good through September; I think based on the conversations we have had in the past, the risk factor should remain the same. GL all.

**pagodo** · 08-04-11, 07:22 AM

Decided to drop the NYY@CWS play altogether. I'll only include full-game shutouts, if a game ends between the sixth and eighth inning, I won't be including it in the stats. Well, there.

UPDATE
Thursday, 8/4

Shutouts on Wednesday (8/3):
ChC @ PIT, 1-0
SD vs LAD, 3-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/3)

fade Toronto, game 3

fade Colorado, game 1

fade San Diego, game 1

Plays for 8/4:
fade Pittsburgh, game 1
(pending: fade SD g2, fade LAD g1)

Game 1: 113-111
Game 2: 61-49
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (222-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/3)

tail Texas, game 3

tail Philadelphia, game 1

tail LA Dodgers, game 1

Plays for 8/4:
tail Texas, game 4
tail Ch Cubs, game 1
(pending: tail LAD g2, tail SD g1)

Game 1: 112-112
Game 2: 61-50
Game 3: 24-26
Game 4: 9-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (218-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**GGPLAYER** · 08-04-11, 07:37 AM

SD won 3-0.

**apwmel** · 08-04-11, 08:59 AM

pagodo thanks again for the updates. GL to all who follow this system and have good discipline.

**timmyboy34243** · 08-04-11, 11:07 AM

here's where i ran into trouble over the last week or so when this situation came up. perhaps it's my own hard headedness and lack of 'labby' understanding but i'm asking again for help: can't convince myself to increase LAD play to tail game#2 while fading them as game#1 in their next game..........same with SDiego though vice-versa on the tail/fade.HELP ME!!!!

**timmyboy34243** · 08-04-11, 01:03 PM

think i just answered my own question but those in the know plaese confirm.......over the 6 game span the unit(s) lost on opposite sides will eventually come back within that string of plays.?.?.?.?

**pagodo** · 08-04-11, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by timmyboy34243

think i just answered my own question but those in the know plaese confirm.......over the 6 game span the unit(s) lost on opposite sides will eventually come back within that string of plays.?.?.?.?

**pagodo** · 08-05-11, 07:03 AM

UPDATE
Friday, 8/5

Shutouts on Thursday (8/4):
PHI @ SF, 3-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/4)

fade Pittsburgh, game 1

Plays for 8/5:
fade San Diego, game 2
fade LA Dodgers, game 1
fade San Francisco, game 1

Game 1: 114-111
Game 2: 61-49
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (223-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/4)

tail Texas, game 4

tail Ch Cubs, game 1

Plays for 8/5:
tail LA Dodgers, game 2
tail San Diego, game 1
tail Philadelphia, game 1

Game 1: 113-112
Game 2: 61-50
Game 3: 24-26
Game 4: 10-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (220-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**pagodo** · 08-06-11, 04:08 AM

Still working on September backtest. I'll definitely have it ready within the next few days.

UPDATE
Saturday, 8/6

Shutouts on Sunday (8/5):
LAA vs SEA, 1-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/5)

fade San Diego, game 2

fade LA Dodgers, game 1

fade San Francisco, game 1

Plays for 8/6:
fade San Diego, game 3
fade LA Dodgers, game 2
fade Seattle, game 1

Game 1: 115-112
Game 2: 61-50
Game 3: 24-25
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (224-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/5)

tail LA Dodgers, game 2

tail San Diego, game 1

tail Philadelphia, game 1

Plays for 8/6:
tail LA Angels, game 1

Game 1: 115-112
Game 2: 62-50
Game 3: 24-26
Game 4: 10-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (223-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**thelimit0310** · 08-06-11, 10:55 PM

Ouch, 1-5 last 2 days. Hopefully we'll have a better day tomorrow. Good night everyone

**pagodo** · 08-07-11, 08:33 AM

UPDATE
Sunday, 8/7

Shutouts on Saturday (8/6):
OAK @ TB, 8-0 (wow)

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/6)

fade San Diego, game 3

fade LA Dodgers, game 2

fade Seattle, game 1

Plays for 8/7:
fade San Diego, game 4
fade LA Dodgers, game 3
fade Seattle, game 2
fade Tampa Bay, game 1

Game 1: 115-113
Game 2: 61-51
Game 3: 24-26
Game 4: 15-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (224-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/6)

tail LA Angels, game 1

Plays for 8/7:
tail LA Angels, game 2
tail Oakland, game 1

Game 1: 115-113
Game 2: 62-50
Game 3: 24-26
Game 4: 10-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (223-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**pagodo** · 08-08-11, 03:47 AM

Sunday night!

UPDATE
Monday, 8/8

Shutouts on Sunday (8/7):
CWS @ MIN, 7-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/7)

fade San Diego, game 4

fade LA Dodgers, game 3

fade Seattle, game 2

fade Tampa Bay, game 1

Plays for 8/8:
fade San Diego, game 5
fade Minnesota, game 1

Game 1: 116-113
Game 2: 62-51
Game 3: 25-26
Game 4: 15-11
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (227-1)

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/7)

tail LA Angels, game 2

tail Oakland, game 1

Plays for 8/8:
tail Ch White Sox, game 1

Game 1: 116-113
Game 2: 63-50
Game 3: 24-26
Game 4: 10-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (225-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

**GGPLAYER** · 08-08-11, 08:15 AM

unreal the only bet I made was against SD.