Shut Out System

[thelimit0310]

Oakland beats Yanks again at a huge - line. Come get your slushees in hell.

Thanks for the update Pagodo!

[pagodo]

Slow going lately, but it was so awesome for the last 6-8 weeks, so the strategy had to hit the brakes at some point. Fading Boston looks like a system loss waiting to happen, but with Oakland hitting like crazy lately, I am playing this one til the end

UPDATE
Friday, 8/26

Shutouts on Thursday (8/25):
DET @ TB, 2-0
BOS @ TEX, 6-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/25)
fade Boston, game 3
fade Oakland, game 3

Plays for 8/26:
fade Boston, game 4
fade Tampa Bay, game 1
fade Ch White Sox, game 1
fade Milwaukee, game 1
fade Texas, game 1


Game 1: 132-122
Game 2: 66-56
Game 3: 29-27
Game 4: 15-11
Game 5: 7-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (252-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/25)
tail NY Yankees, game 3
tail Texas, game 3
tail Pittsburgh, game 1

Plays for 8/26:
tail Texas, game 4
tail Ch White Sox, game 3
tail Pittsburgh, game 2
tail Boston, game 1
tail Detroit, game 1
tail LA Angels, game 1


Game 1: 131-124
Game 2: 66-57
Game 3: 27-29
Game 4: 12-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (248-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[uncle]

*** From: Atari5200 ***

"I got a bum rap for this. I'm not a tout, and I just want people to read my letter and make their own opinion."

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sports-promotions-links/1139259-atari5200-mlb-play-day-p65.html#post11152784

[apwmel]

What's up with Texas? They got blown out by Boston at home. I hope they pull one out tonight.

[mitchp]

Wondering if someone could provide what the one loss in the Fade System ended up costing. I knew this method would be succesfull, but I haven't been able to keep tabs on the dollars.

Thanks
Mitch

[pagodo]

Wondering if someone could provide what the one loss in the Fade System ended up costing. I knew this method would be succesfull, but I haven't been able to keep tabs on the dollars.

Thanks
Mitch

5/19 – 5/25
Milwaukee @ San Diego, 0-1
+125, game 1, Milwaukee vs Colorado, 7-6
+140, game 2, Milwaukee vs Colorado, 3-2
-115, game 3, Milwaukee vs Colorado, 3-1
+150, game 4, Milwaukee vs Washington, 11-3
+145, game 5, Milwaukee vs Washington, 7-6
+150, game 6, Milwaukee vs Washington, 6-4

The exact amount of money in play (to be recovered) after the loss is impossible to predict as you would have to review the system plays day-by-day from the beginning of the season. Adding to that, there are so many different labby strategies you could use...

Myself, I would have played game 1 and 6 on one line, game 2 and 5 on another line, game 3 and 4 on a third line.

Let's assume I'm playing these on cleared lines and it's also a rough estimate as I can't say with any certainty how the lines would have looked then:
GAME 1: betting 1u to win 1.25u
GAME 2: betting 1u to win 1.4u
GAME 3: betting 1.15u to win 1u
GAME 4: betting 1.28u to win 1.92u
GAME 5: betting 1.96u to win 2.85u
GAME 6: betting 1.6u to win 2.4u

That would be roughly 8 units lost, but during those six days other games would have been winning and recovering the money lost on fading Milwaukee (or losing and putting even more units in play). The way we should look at a system loss, if you play three lines (which is in my opinion the best way to go with this strategy), is simply that we suffer two individual losses on each line.

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Saturday, 8/27

Shutouts on Friday (8/26):
NYM vs ATL, 6-0
ARI vs SD, 5-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/26)
fade Boston, game 4
fade Tampa Bay, game 1
fade Ch White Sox, game 1
fade Milwaukee, game 1
fade Texas, game 1

Plays for 8/27:
fade Tampa Bay, game 2
fade Ch White Sox, game 2
fade Milwaukee, game 2
fade Texas, game 2
fade San Diego, game 1
(pending: fade ATL g1)

Game 1: 132-126
Game 2: 66-56
Game 3: 29-27
Game 4: 16-11
Game 5: 7-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (253-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/26)
tail Texas, game 4
tail Ch White Sox, game 3
tail Pittsburgh, game 2
tail Boston, game 1
tail Detroit, game 1
tail LA Angels, game 1

Plays for 8/27:
tail Pittsburgh, game 3
tail Boston, game 2
tail LA Angels, game 2
tail Arizona, game 1
(pending: tail NYM g1)

Game 1: 132-126
Game 2: 66-58
Game 3: 28-29
Game 4: 13-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (251-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Sunday, 8/28

Shutouts on Saturday (8/27):
BOS vs OAK, 4-0
PIT @ STL, 7-0
CWS @ SEA, 3-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/27)
fade Tampa Bay, game 2
fade Ch White Sox, game 2
fade Milwaukee, game 2
fade Texas, game 2
fade San Diego, game 1

Plays for 8/28:
fade Tampa Bay, game 3
fade Ch White Sox, game 3
fade Milwaukee, game 3
fade St Louis, game 1
fade Seattle, game 1
(pending: fade ATL g1, OAK g1)

Game 1: 133-126
Game 2: 67-59
Game 3: 29-27
Game 4: 16-11
Game 5: 7-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (255-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/27)
tail Pittsburgh, game 3
tail Boston, game 2
tail LA Angels, game 2
tail Arizona, game 1

Plays for 8/28:
tail Pittsburgh, game 1
tail Ch White Sox, game 1
(pending: tail NYM g1, BOS g1)

Game 1: 133-126
Game 2: 68-58
Game 3: 29-29
Game 4: 13-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (255-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[thelimit0310]

Wow the system has not been performing too well this past week. Hopefully it starts to pick back up!

[pagodo]

We had three examples of the same case this past weekend: team gets shut out in the last game of a series, starts the next one against a weaker opponent and sweeps said opponent. It's not a problem if these streaks happen one after another; in this case, three of them took place at the same time with TB, CWS and MIL.

Looking at the schedule there will be good value in fading Milwaukee and outstanding value in fading Chicago, but obviously both these series look like they might end with a clean sweep for the home teams and our system loss. I'm playing all of these out and since I managed to score a lot of wins on the tail end of the system, I've only got ~15 units in play at the moment.

Good luck then and if we do suffer a loss, let's hope for some wins on the side to keep the lines in check and we should get it all back soon enough

UPDATE
Monday, 8/29

Shutouts on Sunday (8/28):
BAL vs NYY, 2-0 (first game of dh)
TB @ TOR, 12-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/28)
fade Tampa Bay, game 3
fade Ch White Sox, game 3
fade Milwaukee, game 3
fade St Louis, game 1
fade Seattle, game 1
fade NY Yankees, game 1

Plays for 8/29:
fade Tampa Bay, game 4
fade Ch White Sox, game 4
fade NY Yankees, game 2
fade Toronto, game 1
(pending: fade MIL g4, STL g2, ATL g1)

Game 1: 134-128
Game 2: 67-59
Game 3: 29-30
Game 4: 16-11
Game 5: 7-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (256-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/28)
tail Pittsburgh, game 1
tail Ch White Sox, game 1
tail Baltimore, game 1

Plays for 8/29:
tail Baltimore, game 2
tail Pittsburgh, game 2
tail Tampa Bay, game 1
tail NY Mets, game 1 (and game 2 of dh, if they lose the first one)
(pending: tail BOS g1)

Game 1: 134-128
Game 2: 68-58
Game 3: 29-29
Game 4: 13-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (256-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[pagodo]

Rough night, the labby's busy

UPDATE
Tuesday, 8/30

Shutouts on Monday (8/29):
CWS vs MIN, 3-0
ChC @ SF, 7-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/29)
fade Tampa Bay, game 4
fade Ch White Sox, game 4
fade NY Yankees, game 2
fade Toronto, game 1

Plays for 8/30:
fade Ch White Sox, game 5
fade Milwaukee, game 4
fade NY Yankees, game 3
fade Toronto, game 2
fade St Louis, game 2
fade Atlanta, game 1
fade Minnesota, game 1
fade San Francisco, game 1


Game 1: 134-129
Game 2: 67-60
Game 3: 29-30
Game 4: 17-12
Game 5: 7-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (257-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/29)
tail Baltimore, game 2
tail Pittsburgh, game 2
tail Tampa Bay, game 1
tail NY Mets, game 1

Plays for 8/30:
tail Baltimore, game 3
tail Pittsburgh, game 3
tail Tampa Bay, game 2
tail Boston, game 1
tail Ch Cubs, game 1
tail Ch White Sox, game 1


Game 1: 135-129
Game 2: 68-60
Game 3: 29-29
Game 4: 13-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (257-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Wednesday, 8/31

Shutouts on Tuesday (8/30):
FLA @ NYM, 6-0
PHL @ CIN, 9-0
TEX vs TB, 2-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/30)
fade Ch White Sox, game 5
fade Milwaukee, game 4
fade NY Yankees, game 3
fade Toronto, game 2
fade St Louis, game 2
fade Atlanta, game 1
fade Minnesota, game 1
fade San Francisco, game 1

Plays for 8/31:
fade Ch White Sox, game 6
fade NY Yankees, game 4
fade St Louis, game 3
fade Cincinnati, game 1
fade Tampa Bay, game 1
fade NY Mets, game 1


Game 1: 137-129
Game 2: 68-61
Game 3: 29-31
Game 4: 18-12
Game 5: 7-5
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (262-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/30)
tail Baltimore, game 3
tail Pittsburgh, game 3
tail Tampa Bay, game 2
tail Boston, game 1
tail Ch Cubs, game 1
tail Ch White Sox, game 1

Plays for 8/31:
tail Pittsburgh, game 4
tail Tampa Bay, game 3
tail Boston, game 2
tail Philadelphia, game 1
tail Florida, game 1
tail Texas, game 1


Game 1: 137-130
Game 2: 68-61
Game 3: 30-30
Game 4: 13-16
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (260-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[(Reyes)]

My plan is always I ruin it

[pagodo]

Beautiful win with the Twins yesterday @ +196
The Pittsburgh series looks very risky, but I'm playing it out.

Good luck!

UPDATE
Thursday, 9/1

Shutouts on Wednesday (8/31):
PHL @ CIN, 3-0
TOR @ BAL, 13-0
HOU vs PIT, 2-0
SF vs ChC, 4-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/31)
fade Ch White Sox, game 6
fade NY Yankees, game 4
fade St Louis, game 3
fade Cincinnati, game 1
fade Tampa Bay, game 1
fade NY Mets, game 1

Plays for 9/1:
fade St Louis, game 4
fade Tampa Bay, game 2
fade NY Mets, game 2
fade Baltimore, game 1
fade Cincinnati, game 1
fade Pittsburgh, game 1
(pending: ChC g1)

Game 1: 138-131
Game 2: 68-61
Game 3: 29-32
Game 4: 19-12
Game 5: 7-5
Game 6: 4-1

SYSTEM 1 = (265-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (8/31)
tail Pittsburgh, game 4
tail Tampa Bay, game 3
tail Boston, game 2
tail Philadelphia, game 1
tail Florida, game 1
tail Texas, game 1

Plays for 9/1:
tail Pittsburgh, game 5
tail Florida, game 2
tail Texas, game 2
tail Toronto, game 1
tail Philadelphia, game 1
(pending: SF g1, HOU g1)

Game 1: 138-132
Game 2: 69-61
Game 3: 31-30
Game 4: 13-17
Game 5: 6-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (263-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[apwmel]

Thanks and GL to all.

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Friday, 9/2

Shutouts on Thursday (9/1):
OAK @ CLE, 7-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/1)
fade St Louis, game 4
fade Tampa Bay, game 2
fade NY Mets, game 2
fade Baltimore, game 1
fade Cincinnati, game 1
fade Pittsburgh, game 1

Plays for 9/2:
fade St Louis, game 5
fade NY Mets, game 3
fade Ch Cubs, game 1
fade Cleveland, game 1


Game 1: 141-131
Game 2: 69-62
Game 3: 29-32
Game 4: 19-13
Game 5: 7-5
Game 6: 4-1

SYSTEM 1 = (269-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/1)
tail Pittsburgh, game 5
tail Florida, game 2
tail Texas, game 2
tail Toronto, game 1
tail Philadelphia, game 1

Plays for 9/2:
tail Pittsburgh, game 6
tail Florida, game 3
tail Houston, game 1
tail San Francisco, game 1
tail Oakland, game 1


Game 1: 140-132
Game 2: 70-62
Game 3: 31-30
Game 4: 13-17
Game 5: 6-11
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (266-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[GGPLAYER]

Let's go Pitt!!

[honeyeater]

Let's go Pitt!!

lets do it!

[pagodo]

I got it at +157. Sooo risky.

[apwmel]

The Pirates will pull this one out today.

[pagodo]

The Pirates will pull this one out today.

[packster77]

Pagodo since we are close to the end of baseball can you give an indep example of your best labby system you used for this system basically the one you ended up playing i remember earlier you were trying different variations of the labby show how you played each series if you used the same one for each or if they had their own line the whole way you have it set up thanks

[pagodo]

Pagodo since we are close to the end of baseball can you give an indep example of your best labby system you used for this system basically the one you ended up playing i remember earlier you were trying different variations of the labby show how you played each series if you used the same one for each or if they had their own line the whole way you have it set up thanks

I will definitely post a quick rundown this month

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Saturday, 9/3

Shutouts on Friday (9/2):
TEX @ BOS, 10-0
COL @ SD, 3-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/2)
fade St Louis, game 5
fade NY Mets, game 3
fade Ch Cubs, game 1
fade Cleveland, game 1

Plays for 9/3:
fade NY Mets, game 4
fade Cleveland, game 2
fade Boston, game 1
fade San Diego, game 1


Game 1: 143-132
Game 2: 69-62
Game 3: 29-33
Game 4: 19-13
Game 5: 8-5
Game 6: 4-1

SYSTEM 1 = (272-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/2)
tail Pittsburgh, game 6
tail Florida, game 3
tail Houston, game 1
tail San Francisco, game 1
tail Oakland, game 1

Plays for 9/3:
tail Florida, game 4
tail Houston, game 2
tail Texas, game 1
tail Colorado, game 1


Game 1: 142-133
Game 2: 70-62
Game 3: 31-31
Game 4: 13-17
Game 5: 6-11
Game 6: 7-4

SYSTEM 2 = (269-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[pagodo]

Brilliant couple of days

UPDATE
Sunday, 9/4

Shutouts on Saturday (9/3):
OAK vs SEA, 3-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/3)
fade NY Mets, game 4
fade Cleveland, game 2
fade Boston, game 1
fade San Diego, game 1

Plays for 9/4:
fade Boston, game 2
fade Seattle, game 1


Game 1: 144-133
Game 2: 70-62
Game 3: 29-33
Game 4: 20-13
Game 5: 8-5
Game 6: 4-1

SYSTEM 1 = (275-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/3)
tail Florida, game 4
tail Houston, game 2
tail Texas, game 1
tail Colorado, game 1

Plays for 9/4:
tail Houston, game 3
tail Texas, game 2
tail Oakland, game 1


Game 1: 143-134
Game 2: 70-63
Game 3: 31-31
Game 4: 14-17
Game 5: 6-11
Game 6: 7-4

SYSTEM 2 = (271-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[packster77]

cool thanks

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Monday, 9/5

Shutouts on Sunday (9/4):
MIL @ HOU, 4-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/4)
fade Boston, game 2
fade Seattle, game 1

Plays for 9/5:
fade Houston, game 1


Game 1: 145-133
Game 2: 71-62
Game 3: 29-33
Game 4: 20-13
Game 5: 8-5
Game 6: 4-1

SYSTEM 1 = (277-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/4)
tail Houston, game 3
tail Texas, game 2
tail Oakland, game 1

Plays for 9/5:
tail Houston, game 4
tail Milwaukee, game 1


Game 1: 144-134
Game 2: 71-63
Game 3: 31-32
Game 4: 14-17
Game 5: 6-11
Game 6: 7-4

SYSTEM 2 = (273-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[apwmel]

Houston wins either way today.

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Tuesday, 9/6

Shutouts on Monday (9/5):
TOR vs BOS, 1-0
PHL vs ATL, 9-0
CWS @ MIN, 4-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/5)
fade Houston, game 1

Plays for 9/6:
fade Atlanta, game 1
fade Boston, game 1
fade Minnesota, game 1


Game 1: 146-133
Game 2: 71-62
Game 3: 29-33
Game 4: 20-13
Game 5: 8-5
Game 6: 4-1

SYSTEM 1 = (278-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/5)
tail Houston, game 4
tail Milwaukee, game 1

Plays for 9/6:
tail Houston, game 5
tail Philadelphia, game 1
tail Toronto, game 1
tail Ch White Sox, game 1


Game 1: 145-134
Game 2: 71-63
Game 3: 31-32
Game 4: 14-18
Game 5: 6-11
Game 6: 7-4

SYSTEM 2 = (274-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[GGPLAYER]

Hou blows. I may start laying off really bad teams now that we are in Sept for the tail plays.

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Wednesday, 9/7

Shutouts on Tuesday (9/6):
BOS @ TOR, 14-0
TEX @ TB, 8-0
CWS @ MIN, 3-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/6)
fade Atlanta, game 1
fade Boston, game 1
fade Minnesota, game 1

Plays for 9/7:
fade Boston, game 2
fade Toronto, game 1
fade Tampa Bay, game 1
fade Minnesota, game 1


Game 1: 148-134
Game 2: 71-62
Game 3: 29-33
Game 4: 20-13
Game 5: 8-5
Game 6: 4-1

SYSTEM 1 = (280-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/6)
tail Houston, game 5
tail Philadelphia, game 1
tail Toronto, game 1
tail Ch White Sox, game 1

Plays for 9/7:
tail Toronto, game 2
tail Boston, game 1
tail Texas, game 1
tail Ch White Sox, game 1


Game 1: 147-135
Game 2: 71-63
Game 3: 31-32
Game 4: 14-18
Game 5: 7-11
Game 6: 7-4

SYSTEM 2 = (277-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[analyzer]

Nice to see Houston finally get a win! Thanks Pagodo!

[apwmel]

Yeah Houston finally pulled it out but they should have won 8-1.

[GGPLAYER]

yes it was great to get the win but I still think it's dangerous to chase these really, really bad teams this late in the year.

[pagodo]

Thank you!



It is the risky period and statistically there's always a loss in September, but I'm playing it out, my labby's perfectly fine

I'll be posting til the reg season runs out.