Shut Out System

[pagodo]

That's exactly right

Tonight the strategy wraps up for the year and it's only about finishing the series from tomorrow onwards.

[pagodo]

No shutouts yesterday, so we're only left with finishing off the series already running.

I will definitely start a shutout thread in February, 2012 MLB can't come soon enough.
When the shutout concludes, I'll lay off betting on baseball entirely and just focus on the entertainment value of the playoffs

UPDATE
Friday, 9/23

No shutouts on Thursday (9/22).

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/22)
fade Texas, game 5
fade NY Yankees, game 5
fade Seattle, game 4
fade Houston, game 1
fade Colorado, game 1

Plays for 9/23:
fade Houston, game 2
fade Florida, game 2
fade Atlanta, game 1


Game 1: 162-148
Game 2: 75-71
Game 3: 31-40
Game 4: 22-18
Game 5: 11-7
Game 6: 5-2

SYSTEM 1 = (306-2)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/22)

Plays for 9/23:
tail Atlanta, game 2
tail Florida, game 1
tail Cincinnati, game 1
tail San Diego, game 1


Game 1: 160-148
Game 2: 77-70
Game 3: 35-35
Game 4: 16-19
Game 5: 7-12
Game 6: 8-4

SYSTEM 2 = (303-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Saturday, 9/24

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/23)
fade Houston, game 2
fade Florida, game 2
fade Atlanta, game 1

Plays for 9/24:
fade Houston, game 3
fade Atlanta, game 2


Game 1: 162-149
Game 2: 76-72
Game 3: 31-40
Game 4: 22-18
Game 5: 11-7
Game 6: 5-2

SYSTEM 1 = (307-2)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/23)
tail Atlanta, game 2
tail Florida, game 1
tail Cincinnati, game 1
tail San Diego, game 1

Plays for 9/24:
tail Florida, game 2
tail Cincinnati, game 2
tail San Diego, game 2


Game 1: 160-151
Game 2: 78-70
Game 3: 35-35
Game 4: 16-19
Game 5: 7-12
Game 6: 8-4

SYSTEM 2 = (304-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Sunday, 9/25

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/24)
fade Houston, game 3
fade Atlanta, game 2

Final 2011 results:
Game 1: 162-149
Game 2: 77-72
Game 3: 32-40
Game 4: 22-18
Game 5: 11-7
Game 6: 5-2

SYSTEM 1 = (309-2)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/24)
tail Florida, game 2
tail Cincinnati, game 2
tail San Diego, game 2

Plays for 9/25:
tail Florida, game 3
tail Cincinnati, game 3


Game 1: 160-151
Game 2: 79-72
Game 3: 35-35
Game 4: 16-19
Game 5: 7-12
Game 6: 8-4

SYSTEM 2 = (305-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[DustyDiamond]

Great season!! Thanks pagodo for a well run and fine thread

[pagodo]

Thanks, man

I sincerely hope I can do the same next season. Can't wait!

UPDATE
Monday, 9/26

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):
Final 2011 results:

Game 1: 162-149
Game 2: 77-72
Game 3: 32-40
Game 4: 22-18
Game 5: 11-7
Game 6: 5-2

SYSTEM 1 = (309-2)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/25)
tail Florida, game 3
tail Cincinnati, game 3

Plays for 9/26:
tail Florida, game 4


Game 1: 160-151
Game 2: 79-72
Game 3: 36-36
Game 4: 16-19
Game 5: 7-12
Game 6: 8-4

SYSTEM 2 = (306-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[pagodo]

That top 9th was just terrible

Oh well, the Marlins keep it going.

UPDATE
Tuesday, 9/27

---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/26)
tail Florida, game 4

Plays for 9/27:
tail Florida, game 5


Game 1: 160-151
Game 2: 79-72
Game 3: 36-36
Game 4: 16-20
Game 5: 7-12
Game 6: 8-4

SYSTEM 2 = (306-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[knugen]

thats an unbelivible record, i will follow this system next year for sure

[Wrestler31]

just seen this @ the end of the season, great lol!

taking Marlins tonight then!

[honeyeater]

Thanks, man

I sincerely hope I can do the same next season. Can't wait!

UPDATE
Monday, 9/26

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):
Final 2011 results:

Game 1: 162-149
Game 2: 77-72
Game 3: 32-40
Game 4: 22-18
Game 5: 11-7
Game 6: 5-2

SYSTEM 1 = (309-2)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (9/25)
tail Florida, game 3
tail Cincinnati, game 3

Plays for 9/26:
tail Florida, game 4


Game 1: 160-151
Game 2: 79-72
Game 3: 36-36
Game 4: 16-19
Game 5: 7-12
Game 6: 8-4

SYSTEM 2 = (306-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For labby line 101, check out links @ post #657;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

Great way to end the season- I think next year I'll use some more filters- Thanx for the thread- you do NHL and NFL at all?

[zeusky]

Good job Pagodo; a special mention goes out to Prime1-- he held this together for a crucial few days when things started to fall apart and of course the great Pagodo jumped in to save the situation for all of us. See you all next season again. Enjoy!!

[pagodo]

Thank you so much, everyone, for the good vibes, I hope to see you all back in 2012

I'm looking closely at NHL stats and lines from previous seasons, but if I'll figure something out, I won't start posting in the hockey handicapping section sooner than mid-November as I have a lot of work ahead at my day job right now.

I'll put up a post or two about the strategy later in the week, for now here's a quick results' update with yesterday's Marlins' game 5 win accounted for.

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):
Final 2011 results:

Game 1: 162-149
Game 2: 77-72
Game 3: 32-40
Game 4: 22-18
Game 5: 11-7
Game 6: 5-2

SYSTEM 1 = (309-2)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):
Final 2011 results:

Game 1: 160-151
Game 2: 79-72
Game 3: 36-36
Game 4: 16-20
Game 5: 8-12
Game 6: 8-4

SYSTEM 2 = (307-4)

---

[analyzer]

Thanks pagodo for all your work! Glad I followed for the time I did - picked up over 100 units.

Look forward to next year!

[Grinder12000]

So what were the actual units won on this system anyway - 307-4 seems awesome but what were the units +/- ??? Thanks

BTW - I was a non-believer but after learning about Labourchere . . .seems plausible.

Rod

[pagodo]

So what were the actual units won on this system anyway - 307-4 seems awesome but what were the units +/- ??? Thanks
BTW - I was a non-believer but after learning about Labourchere . . .seems plausible.
Rod

When it comes to actual unit gain I honestly have no idea. I simply took over the tracking and statkeeping in this thread mid-season and started playing the system myself with only the most basic knowledge about the labouchere.

One of the posters, analyzer, has mentioned getting 100 units out of this strategy and I think he's developed some kind of a chase method for these games.

I have myself developed a labby strategy for this system which I have been putting in practice over the last two months of the regular season and my net gain has been 67 units (0.25% bankroll unit size). I promised to post a rundown of how exactly I've been playing this system, but I'm extremely busy with work and travel right now and the unfinished document will be gathering dust so to speak until I manage to find some quality free time and get to the number-crunching.

Before I post a more detailed analysis, these are the observations I can share:
- the strategy is not for the faint-hearted as unit downswings can be quite substantial;
- because of that particular risk, recommended unit size would be somewhere between 0.2 and 0.5 % of bankroll;
- the monthly net gain (from the period I have looked at so far) averages at +25 units.

The bottom line is also that there are multiple ways you can use the labby in regards to the posted games and series. That's why it's entirely natural to have multiple end results with this system. This season we have only been tracking the series and trying to develop betting strategies. I hope I'll be able to (and will certainly try to) post a daily update of my results next year

[analyzer]

I did 109.69 units from 8/1/11 through end of season. Now, this said I'm pretty sure I only suffered one system loss. I did the 1st game for 1 unit and then the remaining chase was to win 1/2 unit. Of course, the higher win rates of "A" games would skew results. I will probably change my approach for next season. Haven't decided to exactly what but probably will.

Good luck this winter folks!

[Grinder12000]

I have read all about labbys and STILL am a little confused - I understand the 5-5-5-5 X-5-5-x and so forth but the "Game 1" and "Game 2" is playing with my mind.

Simple question and feel free to PM me.

In a VERY simple example

TEX gets shut out so you bet against TEX let's say 5-5-5-5 so you are betting 10

TEX WINS so you are (-10) and "Game 2" now 5-5-5-5-10 you bet 15

TEX LOSES (which is good) so now you have a total of +5 right . . what happens to "Game 3?" which would be x-5-5-5-x OR are you finished!

So if you have 4 shut outs you have 4 separate labbys correct?

[pagodo]

Check back @post #787 to see how to set up the labby lines. Read through the thread starting there, there's a lot of useful info here and there. I have also put up an example, a few pages back, on how to move lost money round the lines.



Answering your question directly - there are three lines in my example.
LINE ONE - game 1 and 6
LINE TWO - game 2 and 5
LINE THREE - game 3 and 4

Game 1 loses - add a number to line 1. Next bet goes on line 2. Game 2 wins - cross out two (or three if you're aggressive), collect, move on.

I will have this explained in detail for next season.
Right now I'm just logging in to check some stuff quickly and place wagers; I'll surely make some time before the end of the calendar year to take care of business here

[Grinder12000]

nevermind

[pagodo]

nevermind

Hm?

[Grinder12000]

NOT a doubter - I'm REAL intrigued by this and I have run a LOT of systems in my many many years of handicapping (before there were computers) . . . . so any questions ARE questions.

A lot in one post but it's all the questions I have been thinking of for a month.


OK - I was doing some testing with real lines starting with 4 4 4 4. Ever thing was going great for the 1sy 4 or 5 days. My goal was to always WIN the 4+4 so when I was betting a fav I had to actually bet MORE then 8.

While this is a 6 game chase (which is sort of meaningless in labby lines I feel) the problem is exactly how are you doing this.

I started with one labby SET. When there were 3 or 4 games I needed to play I created more labby SETS. So on a day with 4 games I needed 4 different SETS (following me so far?).

If there was only one game I just picked one of my SETS and used it.

There is a point in the 2nd week where there are a LOT of losses. One line which started a 4 4 4 4 was now

4-4-4-4-10.05-15.11-19.01-26.59-41.88-76.97

I had 5 SETS with ending numbers all above $39. My fades were all winning constantly AND they were BIG favs.

SO my thinking that maybe I have one SET for each team? What happens when two "fade" teams play each other.

Looking at my stats one BIG problem is always when a team gets shut out on get-away day, they seem to sweep the next team more then is comfortable.

My question is I see a lot of your labbys all with nice even numbers when in reality many times the fade team has a line of -150 so in order to WIN you need to a nice 5+5 you have to actually bet $15. One article you linked to said take that losing $15 and split it up into two SETS $7.50 each.

As for the chase - we all know that winning one game does not make you a winner unless you win the very next game.

So - my POINT is (and I would help). it would be nice (for me) to play back the year (or a week or 2 weeks) showing actual, virtual dollars and how the mechanics really work. (www.wagertracker.com has all the games and lines from past years). Obviously my way went FUBR about April 10th after losing 7 out o 8 games in the $25 range starting with 4-4-4-4.

-----------

(did ANY of that make sense?).

[pagodo]

I very much appreciate the work you've put in to get this posted and ask these questions. These are all pertinent questions and I've been asking them myself during the course of the season (remember that I'm just sort of a caretaker of this thread, I looked it up and started keeping track of the plays mid-season). I will address all these issues when I finally get around to writing a "recap" for the strategy.

Just some quick notes for now:

While this is a 6 game chase (which is sort of meaningless in labby lines I feel) the problem is exactly how are you doing this. I started with one labby SET [...]

This is one of the fundamental things for the strategy to work in my opinion: you need to have no more than three labby lines (sets); and this is a change from my previous stance. If there are six games in the chase - you can set three lines up. With a four-game chase, two labby lines would do the trick. The winning percentage would decrease only slightly, looking at the stats.

When there were 3 or 4 games I needed to play I created more labby SETS. So on a day with 4 games I needed 4 different SETS (following me so far?).

As I have said, creating additional lines (or numbers on lines) is a bad idea. I've been doing this myself and actually losing money in the process, so I know what I'm talking about. There was a discussion at some point about what to do if you have more games on the card than space on the labby lines. There are three ideas on how to tackle this: 1) leave one (or more) game out and play only as many as you have space for on the lines; 2) move a number from one line to another to create space for a play if you simply don't have enough numbers on the line; 3) if you have 4 numbers on the line and three games on the board, add the 4 numbers up and then divide by three to get a new unit. I've been doing 2) myself and don't like 3), but I know that people have been playing this way.

My question is I see a lot of your labbys all with nice even numbers when in reality many times the fade team has a line of -150 so in order to WIN you need to a nice 5+5 you have to actually bet $15.

Well, we have been playing these series for months, so we must have noticed the high juice from time to time
I had a 7-unit bet once at -170 that I felt was worth taking. There was also a three-day period when I lost thirteen games in a row and the amount of units in play (units lost + units placed in new bets) totalled at 65! Got it all back and more on big +money bets

That is why I keep saying that it takes nerve and a small starting unit to make this work. And I have thought about going through the whole season labby simulation, but I definitely won't have time to do it. I will prepare a worst-case scenario sim though and present the results here along with the 'recap'. Are you sure that you would take it up yourself and played it back if I supplied you with the matchups and lines? That would be awesome.

[Nino7]

gjob

[Swan4brownlow]

Just came across this thread as I'm looking for a MLB system to follow. Looks like guys had plenty of success last year with results of around +100 units. Wondering if the thread will continue this year? Cheers

[Maleku]

Just checking in. This will be my 5th season running this system... have not had a losing season yet.

Anyone else rolling with the Shutout System this year?

[greenhippo]

Just checking in. This will be my 5th season running this system... have not had a losing season yet.

Anyone else rolling with the Shutout System this year?

I'm toying with a variation on the shutout system myself, backtesting it right now to be exact. Biggest thing is finding which individual teams fared what way after getting shut out or tossing a shut out. Example: Rangers were shut out 9 times last season, the games following the shutout they went 9-0, there are a few scenarios that look very promising, but will discuss them in my own thread shortly.

BOL to everyone.

[gtboy]

what would be the result betting on the team that got shut out. I did not look into this but just off ur head what u think?

[greenhippo]

Can't speak for every team because I haven't checked yet. But like I said, the Rangers went 9-0 after being shut out, Phillies went 4-1. Teams like the Astros (3-7) and Twins (3-10) went much worse.

[DustyDiamond]

I hope pagodo comes back and heads this up again this season, thread was awesome last year.

[alkmtz]

How many units did you win last season in both systems? Thanks!

[knugen]

are anyone using labbylines on this system, how does it work, i know it can be hard with 6 game chase

[Maleku]

are anyone using labbylines on this system, how does it work, i know it can be hard with 6 game chase

I would like to know this too. Much more preferable to run a labby with this but I cant figure out a good method as you will find yourswlf playing aot of game at times.

Anyone have any thoughts?

[DustyDiamond]

I believe last year they used a three line labby. Games 1 and 6 on Line 1 Games 2 and 5 on Line 2 and Games 3 and 4 on Line 3. A lot of folks were using the 3 strike method to clear lines faster.

[Nova99]

what would be the result betting on the team that got shut out. I did not look into this but just off ur head what u think?

Isnt this just the opposite of the recorded posted for the system 1? after a shutout the team that was shutout won 149 times and lost 162 times.

System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):
Final 2011 results:

Game 1: 162-149

[Nova99]

I would like to know this too. Much more preferable to run a labby with this but I cant figure out a good method as you will find yourswlf playing aot of game at times.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Maleku, which method did you try in the past seasons following this?

From reading the past posts i think most people just use the current labby line when there are multiple games. So if you have 4 game 1s starting and 2 game 2s you just use the current game 1 line for the 4 games and the current game 2 line for the other 2 games. You clear the winners first and then add on the losers. Sounds like pagodo dropped a percentage of his losings and spread them onto the next line.

Looks to be an interesting system to follow, gonna give it a try and hope i get it right