Shut Out System

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Saturday, 6/25

Shutouts on 6/24:
PHI vs OAK, 1-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/24)
fade St Louis, game 2
fade Seattle, game 1

Plays for 6/25:
fade Seattle, game 2
fade Oakland, game 1


Game 1: 79-78
Game 2: 41-36
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 11-8
Game 5: 4-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (155-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/24)
tail Toronto, game 5
tail Seattle, game 4
tail Philadelphia, game 2
tail Washington, game 1

Plays for 6/25:
tail Philadelphia, game 1


Game 1: 77-80
Game 2: 44-36
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 6-13
Game 5: 5-8
Game 6: 4-4

SYSTEM 2 = (153-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[cancan]

Best of luck with your picks

[apwmel]

Great friday night.

[pagodo]

Can't wait til Interleague's over, the system needs all this high scoring to stop!

[thelimit0310]

Thanks Pagodo and thelimit0310 for the responses. I found SBR at the beginning of the baseball season and started chasing and have now decided that I don't really enjoy the huge ups and downs of chasing. I am going to start small and labby this system the way you layed it out, limit. It seems like a lot less of a rollercoaster ride then the chases I was following.

Absolutely, just make sure you start low so that if your lines inflate from some bad losing days your still good to clear. Best of luck!

[merikson]

Since PHI is a bet for both systems, do you place two bets on them?

[pagodo]

Since PHI is a bet for both systems, do you place two bets on them?

I would say that if you're playing both sides of the system, it is probably a good idea, but it's all really dependent on the bankroll % you're putting in these plays.

I'm playing almost all games on both sides of this system, but I'm investing a small percentage of my bankroll in it; the most money I had involved in my shutout labby lines was around 8-9% of my bankroll when I played 10 games and had only three or four new lines. Yesterday we had a double bet on Toronto as well and I didn't play double, only covered with my 'tail TOR' line. Tonight I'm actually playing 1.5x on Philadelphia -1.5 as I expect them to pound the A's either tonight or tomorrow (this is the gambler in me speaking). Good luck!

[merikson]

I would say that if you're playing both sides of the system, it is probably a good idea, but it's all really dependent on the bankroll % you're putting in these plays.

I'm playing almost all games on both sides of this system, but I'm investing a small percentage of my bankroll in it; the most money I had involved in my shutout labby lines was around 8-9% of my bankroll when I played 10 games and had only three or four new lines. Yesterday we had a double bet on Toronto as well and I didn't play double, only covered with my 'tail TOR' line. Tonight I'm actually playing 1.5x on Philadelphia -1.5 as I expect them to pound the A's either tonight or tomorrow (this is the gambler in me speaking). Good luck!

Thanks for the reply. I just started following both sides, so what the hell? I'll double up on Philly tonight.

[ionutt79]

BOL

[pagodo]

UPDATE
Sunday, 6/26

Shutouts on 6/25:
SF vs CLE, 1-0
CWS vs WSH, 3-0
DET vs ARI, 6-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/25)
fade Seattle, game 2
fade Oakland, game 1

Plays for 6/26:
fade Oakland, game 2
fade Washington, game 1
fade Cleveland, game 1
fade Arizona, game 1


Game 1: 79-79
Game 2: 42-36
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 11-8
Game 5: 4-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (156-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/25)
tail Philadelphia, game 1

Plays for 6/26:
tail Philadelphia, game 2
tail Ch White Sox, game 1
tail Detroit, game 1
tail San Francisco, game 1


Game 1: 77-81
Game 2: 44-36
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 6-13
Game 5: 5-8
Game 6: 4-4

SYSTEM 2 = (153-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[cancan]

Damned Philadelphia. !!

[pagodo]

Do not diss the Phils, be patient and they will cash for you, my friend.
It wasn't a blowout though and the A's did put up a fight, luckily the run line held.

There will be nice plus money in the White Sox tail, starting Tuesday.
Here's the update:

Monday, 6/27

Shutouts on Sunday:
TOR @ STL, 5-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/26)
fade Oakland, game 2
fade Washington, game 1
fade Cleveland, game 1
fade Arizona, game 1

Plays for 6/27:
fade Washington, game 2
(pending: fade STL g1)

Game 1: 81-80
Game 2: 43-36
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 11-8
Game 5: 4-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (159-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/26)
tail Philadelphia, game 2
tail Ch White Sox, game 1
tail Detroit, game 1
tail San Francisco, game 1

Plays for 6/27:
tail Toronto, game 1
(pending: tail CWS g2)

Game 1: 79-82
Game 2: 45-36
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 6-13
Game 5: 5-8
Game 6: 4-4

SYSTEM 2 = (156-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[zeusky]

Pagodo you are the man!! Good day yesterday; need more plays in the next few days.

[pagodo]

And new plays we get:

Tuesday, 6/28

Shutouts on Monday:
CIN @ TB, 5-0
LAD @ MIN, 15-0 <<

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/27)
fade Washington, game 2

Plays for 6/28:
fade St Louis, game 1
fade Minnesota, game 1
fade Tampa Bay, game 1


Game 1: 81-80
Game 2: 44-36
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 11-8
Game 5: 4-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (160-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/27)
tail Toronto, game 1

Plays for 6/28:
tail Ch White Sox, game 2
tail Toronto, game 2
tail Cincinnati, game 1
tail LA Dodgers, game 1


Game 1: 79-83
Game 2: 45-36
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 6-13
Game 5: 5-8
Game 6: 4-4

SYSTEM 2 = (156-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[cancan]

Thank you for picks: so early!

[thelimit0310]

Both systems performing great this year, wish I had jumped on when I had the chance. Definitely adding this system to my book for next year. Great work guys!

[pagodo]

Both systems performing great this year, wish I had jumped on when I had the chance. Definitely adding this system to my book for next year. Great work guys!

I hope the guys let me run the updates next year as well

Looking forward to having you onboard next season!
I'll analyze all my messy experiments with labby lines and hope to come back prepared and roaring in 2012. This system is just so awesome.

I'm working on another approach right now:
LINE(S) 1 -- game 1 + 6,
LINE(S) 2 -- game 2 + 5,
LINE(S) 3 -- game 3 + 4.
This might just be what I was looking for.

[thelimit0310]

I hope the guys let me run the updates next year as well

Looking forward to having you onboard next season!
I'll analyze all my messy experiments with labby lines and hope to come back prepared and roaring in 2012. This system is just so awesome.

I'm working on another approach right now:
LINE(S) 1 -- game 1 + 6,
LINE(S) 2 -- game 2 + 5,
LINE(S) 3 -- game 3 + 4.
This might just be what I was looking for.

The method I posted awhile back was very similar, only games 4, 5 and 6 were on lines 1 , 2, and 3 respectively. I made that decision because I didn't want to play game 4 on the same line right after taking the game 3 loss. I also made the decision because only 20 games this season have ever gone past 3, and it's just not worth it to have lines dedicated to those plays.

I actually just got done running it as a backtest with this season, and it worked like a charm. Today, with lines at 5-5-5-5, they stand at:

8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5
5-5-5-5
6-6-6

Where each loss is added to the end and averaged out individually. 2 strike method. I always played the sum of 2 numbers, even if there were more plays than numbers on the line. I also always crossed off wins before adding in losses. If the wins cleared the line before the loss was added, I added the loss to the new line. The loss the fade system took earlier in the season has been completely recovered. I haven't worked it with the tail system yet, but I'm sure it works fine there too.

I might hop on board starting with new series on the fade system, and post occasionally with how my labby is responding. I've been looking for an alternative to Wallco's system, I just can't seem to figure out a good method, consistent method with it. Which is a shame because I do believe he has a winning system there, but it's proving to just not be what I'm looking for.

My method does work, but it may be hard with a higher unit size, they have on more than one occasion gotten close to tripling in size, however if you start low enough, it never became a problem. Looking forward to continuing the discussion Pagodo, if we work together I'm sure we can find a solid method!

[thelimit0310]

Hey guys, had a silly question but was hoping someone could answer because I am new to the plays here, do we ever take the + runs? Or is it always ML bets?

[pagodo]

Do we ever take the + runs? Or is it always ML bets?

Always ML, the less high -money plays, the better for the labby.
With five/six losses per year -- and $$$$ wins -- it just doesn't make sense to play high juice (except when tailing obvious favorites / fading obvious underdogs). With the underdogs, it's pretty much the same as @ Wallco's, don't look too much into stats and trends (I'll admit, I do, but only from time to time when I'm thinking about putting additional units on the lines) and play the plus money for what it's worth. As your backtest proved, thelimit, the losses are quickly recovered thanks to the amount of wins and the ~50% hitting average.
Myself, I choose the minus run line from time to time (as with PHI vs OAK several days ago) and even if such a chase lost, it's plus money or very slight favorite, again, very quick in recovering. What I love about this system is that a six-game chase loss is pretty much just two losses on each of the three labby lines you're using.

The method I posted awhile back was very similar, only games 4, 5 and 6 were on lines 1 , 2, and 3 respectively. I made that decision because I didn't want to play game 4 on the same line right after taking the game 3 loss. I also made the decision because only 20 games this season have ever gone past 3, and it's just not worth it to have lines dedicated to those plays.

I think your method is perfectly fine; honestly, start following this season, don't miss out on the $, put three lines in place for the tail side and another three for the fade side (or just one as you stated) and you're good to go, now
The only "danger" is going in circles if we hit four or five more losses on the way which is very unlikely (we should have two at most, three if we're unlucky, I think).

I have just rearranged my lines, hopefully for the last time this year and plan to use six lines as well, but hitting 3-strikes instead of classic 2's. I chose the 1+6 / 2+5 / 3+4 combination because every set of lines gets a fair number of plays during the season, as of today the stats would look like this:

FADE
games 1 + 6: 165 bets (84-81, 50.9%)
games 2 + 5: 88 bets (48-40, 54.5%)
games 3 + 4: 55 bets (28-27, 50.9%)

TAIL
games 1 + 6: 170 bets (83-87, 48.8%)
games 2 + 5: 94 bets (50-44, 53.2%)
games 3 + 4: 55 bets (23-32, 41.8%)

Thanks for the info and the input, thelimit!

[thelimit0310]

No problem, and thank you as well Pagodo. I feel we have had a very strong alliance this MLB season and I hope it pays off for the both of us

Just a quick note, I ran the numbers for running games 1+4, 2+5, 3+6, and the percentages come out to be:
Fade:
1/4: 51%
2/5: 57%
3/6: 50%

I didn't check the Tail system because I don't really have the roll to follow both systems at this time, though I will do both next season. The percentages are just about the same, the only difference being with your set up Line 3 will win slightly more and on my set up Line 2 will win slightly more. I guess it really comes down to preference since there doesn't seem to be a straight winner.

Best of luck and thanks again! I'm on board!

[pagodo]

Funny night, no wins; we got two shutouts though, so there are plays on the board!

* Best of luck, everyone *

Wednesday, 6/29

Shutouts on Tuesday:
PHI vs BOS, 5-0
OAK vs FLA, 1-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/28)
fade St Louis, game 1
fade Minnesota, game 1
fade Tampa Bay, game 1

Plays for 6/29:
fade St Louis, game 2
fade Minnesota, game 2
fade Tampa Bay, game 2
fade Florida, game 1
fade Boston, game 1


Game 1: 81-83
Game 2: 44-36
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 11-8
Game 5: 4-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (160-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/28)
tail Ch White Sox, game 2
tail Toronto, game 2
tail Cincinnati, game 1
tail LA Dodgers, game 1

Plays for 6/29:
tail Ch White Sox, game 3
tail Toronto, game 3
tail Cincinnati, game 2
tail LA Dodgers, game 2
tail Oakland, game 1
tail Philadelphia, game 1


Game 1: 79-85
Game 2: 45-38
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 6-13
Game 5: 5-8
Game 6: 4-4

SYSTEM 2 = (156-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[GGPLAYER]

Not that I want to see anyone lose bets but the deeper these go the better for me. Tor seems to be one of those teams who stretches these chases out.

[cancan]

BOL on your plays today

[thelimit0310]

The day I hop on and the system is winless, coincidence?

Better luck tonight, the labby actually took those losses pretty well.

[GGPLAYER]

Yes!! I normally don't pound my chest on too many things but taking Cin today as the biggest dog of the day was huge!! It was a perfect fade play to most other tout picks and systems! Double winner for us here. Awesome!

[cancan]

gl on your plays today
Thank you

[pagodo]

True, awesome wins with the Reds and the White Sox
Baltimore let me down a bit though!

Here's the update:

Thursday, 6/30

Shutouts on Wednesday:
MIN vs LAD, 1-0
LAA vs WSH, 1-0
FLA @ OAK, 3-0

---
System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/29)
fade St Louis, game 2
fade Minnesota, game 2
fade Tampa Bay, game 2
fade Florida, game 1
fade Boston, game 1

Plays for 6/30:
fade St Louis, game 3
fade Florida, game 2
fade Oakland, game 1
(pending: fade MIN g3, fade WSH g1, fade LAD g1)

Game 1: 82-84
Game 2: 45-38
Game 3: 17-19
Game 4: 11-8
Game 5: 4-4
Game 6: 3-1

SYSTEM 1 = (162-1)


---
System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):

Results (6/29)
tail Ch White Sox, game 3
tail Toronto, game 3
tail Cincinnati, game 2
tail LA Dodgers, game 2
tail Oakland, game 1
tail Philadelphia, game 1

Plays for 6/30:
tail Oakland, game 2
tail Florida, game 1
(pending: tail LAD g3, tail LAA g1, tail MIN g1)

Game 1: 80-86
Game 2: 46-39
Game 3: 19-19
Game 4: 6-13
Game 5: 5-8
Game 6: 4-4

SYSTEM 2 = (160-4)

---
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445;
For a rundown on 2011 system losses, check out post #702;
2009-2010 system losses @ post #738;
2008 system losses @ post #742.
---

[thelimit0310]

Hmm, so now what do we do when the team we were fading shuts another team out? I guess we play both sides of those series now?

[pagodo]

Totally up to you, myself, I do play both sides and I have to admit, I hate these conflicting chases; obviously though, they're unavoidable. A bit more $ in play, but after a few days it all sorts itself out

On a quick note, I'll just jump in tomorrow morning to post the plays for the day and be back with a full update on Saturday.

Good luck, guys!

[atari5200]

pagodo, you're doing an awesome job taking care of this thread. I've been around since page 1 (maybe 2?) and we've had lots of different guys stepping up to post the bets, i made some long posts about my labby structure for separate game numbers. I made really good coin early season on this system but it got messy when i had too many other systems on the go at the same time and the BR couldn't cover all the bets for each system properly.

You're following other systems like Wallco's and maybe JM and it'll tie up too much $. If you stick solely to this system i think the modest proifits at seasons's end will be worth it. Plus you can always add on your personal choice for the overall best pick of the night on the side.

I get into this a lot more on my thread and I'm sure you're not pleased with my pick being the public favorite of the day, but it's been a great ride so far. Thanks for stopping in with good vibes.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/1139259-atari5200-mlb-play-day-p5.html

[pagodo]

Actually, your labby posts, Atari, were one of the first that helped me set my own up
I've only been doing this (labbying) for two months (almost), but the amount of data I managed to collect by just reading through the threads here @ SBR (and one other forum) is massive and I consider myself quite knowledgeable on the matter.

Loving the shutout system, I've only been playing these games for several weeks and I've got 7% ROI already. It is a grind, but this year is about getting data and we're going to attack next season. I'll try to post as many facts and tips as possible before the games start in April 2012.

See you at the forums, Atari, congrats on your record

[zeusky]

Fading Cardinals today. GL boys.

[pagodo]

Two shutouts yesterday, Yankees blanked Brewers and Astros blanked Rangers.

Tonight's plays:

fade St Louis, game 4
fade Florida, game 3
fade Minnesota, game 3
fade Washington, game 1
fade Milwaukee, game 1
fade Texas, game 1
fade LA Dodgers, game 1

tail LA Dodgers, game 3
tail Oakland, game 3
tail NY Yankees, game 1
tail Minnesota, game 1
tail Houston, game 1
tail LA Angels, game 1


I'll be back tomorrow morning with the stats.
Good luck!

[GGPLAYER]

Fading Cardinals today. GL boys.

Now I'm on board with that one.