2006 Preview - Boston Red Sox

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    2006 Preview - Boston Red Sox
    2005 Record: 95-67, 2nd in AL East (tied with NYY in ALE, seeded as AL Wildcard)

    Considering they were coming off a storybook postseason run in 2004 that culminated with their first World Series title since Woodrow Wilson was tossing out ceremonial first pitches, it was easy to predict Boston’s 2005 campaign wouldn’t be as grand. And the Beantown Nine lived up to the lesser expectations when they exited the postseason in round one at the hands of the eventual champion White Sox.

    It’s also easy to predict the Red Sox will be in the thick of the postseason race in ‘06. But with several AL teams upgrading this winter, the notion of just finishing second to the Yankees in the AL East being enough for the wildcard may not be as sound.

    Boston’s loudest off season noise was wunderkind Theo Epstein briefly leaving and centerfielder Johnny Damon doing the unthinkable by bolting for the Bronx. Epstein and team prez Larry Lucchino apparently patched things up and that turned out to be just front office monkey business in the end. Damon’s departure still has Sox Nation seething even after Boston acquired talented Coco Crisp to replace the Caveman.

    Almost lost amid those two media bursts was the rest of the roster overhaul. Boston took part in the latest Marlins sell off by adding Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell through a trade and signing Alex Gonzalez. More on Beckett later. Lowell and Gonzalez are just part of a brand new infield that Boston will trot out in 2006. It’s doubtful Lowell will live up to his huge contract, but he should rebound from a horrible 2005 that saw him slug just .360 in 150 games. Gonzalez was signed to replace disappointing Edgar Renteria and provide defense that was lacking at short last season. Mark Loretta came over in a trade from San Diego to play second for the Sox, with JT Snow signed for his glove at first where he will likely share time with Kevin ‘Greek God of Walks’ Youkilis. Tony Graffanino and Alex Cora have inside tracks on infield reserve roles.

    The outfield has Manny Ramirez and Trot Nixon on the flanks and Crisp in center. Offensively, that’s a nice trio. Of course, adding Manny’s stick to just about any twosome makes for a nice trio. You never really know what you’re going to get from Manny out in left, or in the media as well. WEEI Radio, who apparently took the same Silly Rumors 101 class that much of the New York media aced, is still trying to advance a Ramirez-to-Mets deal that I’m just not buying. A couple of non-roster invitees, Dustin Mohr and Gabe Kapler, could come away with backup jobs.

    Team captain Jason Varitek is back behind the plate where he should see action 99.9% of the time that knuckler Tim Wakefield isn’t on the mound. Josh Bard and John Flaherty will compete for Big Mitt Backup.

    Speaking of Wakefield, the starting rotation looks nice on paper. Curt Schilling, David Wells, Matt Clement and Wakefield are joined by Beckett with Bronson Arroyo in reserve and likely to start the season in the pen. Keeping Schilling and Beckett healthy for the 162-game grind is crucial; expecting them to both be healthy for the duration is iffy at best based on their track records. The Red Sox have a pair of solid aces on the horizon in Jon Paplebon and Jon Lester. If the injury bug does bite, it’s not a stretch to imagine one or even both in the mix before season’s end.

    Health is also a concern with Keith Foulke. Did he or didn’t he have knee surgery last year? Only his surgeon knows for sure. Foulke is sure he’s ready to climb back aboard the closing stallion and ride it all season with increased velocity. He’ll have Mike Timlin back in a setup role, and Boston also picked up Julian Tavarez via free agency and David Riske in the Crisp trade from Cleveland to add 7th-8th inning depth. Hard-throwing Craig Hansen, the team’s top pick out of St. John’s in 2005, has closer’s stuff and probably will have that role in the near future. For now he’s in setup-middle relief. Aside from Foulke regaining form, the biggest question is who mans the lefty relief role. Odds are that Lenny DiNardo grabs the slot.

    Unlike last season when they returned the bulk of their 2004, the Red Sox went out and made wholesale changes this winter. They’re obviously not content with the one World Series after nearly a century of heartbreak and disappointments. It’s doubtful they will wait another 86 years for their next set of rings. But a lot of new guys have to come together this season if they are only to wait two years between titles.

    Key Performer(s): The top of the rotation and Foulke.

    Camp Question(s): Settling trade rumors surrounding Ramirez and Wells, getting a brand new infield in synch and finding someone to catch Wakefield’s knuckler.

    My Play: The toughest call for me to make since my projection is 91 and that has it right at the o/u futures at most sites. Expected improvement from ALE foes Toronto has me shifting both the BoSox and the Yanks down a little this time, so that lends to betting under at the sites offering the 91½ mark or higher.
    Last edited by Willie Bee; 02-22-06, 02:38 PM.
  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #2
    with Manny Ramirez and David Wells wanting out of Boston. i'm really wondering how this will effect the team this season, if they don't dump both of these distractions.
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      Several of my Sox friends are simply fed up with Manny's crapola. Most of them think he will be traded, but at this stage I think it will be tough to move him without eating a bunch of his contract, more than I think Boston's willing to.

      Manny just being Manny might not play too well along the Charles this year.
      Comment
      • SBR_John
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 07-12-05
        • 16471

        #4
        I hope they move Wakefield to the pen. With their setup/closer combo Wake would be a great fit in relief, in pre setup or even long relieve.

        This is a good team on paper. Forget Johnny D. he was over rated for a leadoff guy and just decent in the field.
        Comment
        • bigboydan
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 08-10-05
          • 55420

          #5
          Wakefield will pitch in any role thats needed. the one thing everyone must remember about Wakefield is the fact that he has a damn good lifetime record against the yankees.
          Comment
          • SBR_John
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-12-05
            • 16471

            #6
            This is a real good starter lineup and a ton of lumber in the 3rd, 4th and 5th batters. Got some proving to do at the top and bottom of the order. The Sox are contenders with very good pitching and a little mini murderous row in the fat part of the line up.
            Comment
            • Willie Bee
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-14-06
              • 15726

              #7
              Originally posted by SBR_John
              ...Wake would be a great fit...
              Wakefield would be a great fit in any role for any team. Love that guy, always had a fondness for knucklers for some reason. Relief might be the best way he can help the Red Sox, but I would wait to see how Fat Boy Wells, Clement and Arroyo were going to perform as starters before I dropped Wakefield from rotation plans.
              Comment
              • Dead Money
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 08-30-05
                • 706

                #8
                Bringing Wake out of the pen scares me. Nothing like letting runners move up bases or scoring from third on a passed ball.

                Sox have to many starters at the moment but with health problems with Beck and Shill that is a good problem to have.
                Comment
                • Willie Bee
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-14-06
                  • 15726

                  #9
                  Good point, DM. It would mean possibly lifting Varitek from the backstop spot in order to get someone in there to catch Wakefield.
                  Comment
                  • SBR_John
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 07-12-05
                    • 16471

                    #10
                    Varitek is an animal. I just noticed that many of Wakes starts are wasted. His record is always around or under .500. Good point about letting runners advance via the steal with that slow 60 mph knuckler.
                    Comment
                    • isetcap
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-16-05
                      • 4006

                      #11
                      If Boston wants to replicate the brilliant administrative moves of the Philadelphia Eagles, then they should try really hard to get rid of Manny Ramirez. It's always easy to fill a small hole in the middle of your lineup when you're running one of the greatest offensive players in the game out of town. Just like it was so easy for the Eagles to win without the clubhouse distractions of TO. The Red Sox are a team that needs to outscore opponents and this year will be no different. If I were part of the Red Sox fanbase, I'd think real long and hard about continuing to make Manny feel unwelcome.
                      Comment
                      • bigboydan
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 08-10-05
                        • 55420

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Willie Bee
                        Good point, DM. It would mean possibly lifting Varitek from the backstop spot in order to get someone in there to catch Wakefield.

                        damn good point about the catching factor.
                        Comment
                        • juuso
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-04-05
                          • 2896

                          #13
                          Very good read. I'm a Red Sox fan, and altough don't get baseball at all from tv here in Finland, i really enjoy betting on the sport and have subscribed mlb.tv for the last 2 seasons. Will take it again this spring. Doesn't cost much and the quality of the stream is very good.
                          Comment
                          • Willie Bee
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-14-06
                            • 15726

                            #14
                            Josh Bard appears to be the only option now to be Tim Wakefield's catcher...unless this rumor reported in one of the Beantown rags is true.

                            Jeff Horrigan / Boston Herald
                            Ft. Myers, FLA --- The Red Sox are believed to be on the lookout for a veteran backup catcher and may have set their sights on reacquiring Doug Mirabelli, according to a National League scout.

                            The Sox traded Mirabelli to the San Diego Padres for second baseman Loretta on Dec. 7. With John Flaherty opting to retire last week and Ken Huckaby sidelined all spring with an inflamed left knee, Josh Bard is the only viable candidate right now to back up Jason Varitek.
                            Comment
                            • Willie Bee
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 02-14-06
                              • 15726

                              #15
                              The Greek has the break at 92½ - o(+125) and u(-145).

                              Pinnacle remains at 91½ with the over (-104) and under (-112).
                              Comment
                              • Willie Bee
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-14-06
                                • 15726

                                #16
                                Current record 30-20

                                My Play: The toughest call for me to make since my projection is 91 and that has it right at the o/u futures at most sites. Expected improvement from ALE foes Toronto has me shifting both the BoSox and the Yanks down a little this time, so that lends to betting under at the sites offering the 91½ mark or higher.
                                The Red Sox have so far defied my calculations and pace out to 97 wins, maybe 98, on the season. With a 22-14 record against fellow AL East squads and a 16-8 home record (2nd-best in AL), about the only weakness thus far has been a 9-10 mark against southpaws.

                                The pitching staff has been slightly better than average with a 4.62 ERA. Boston arms have walked just 144 batters, only one of those intentional, and whiffed 322 of the opposition. Curt Schilling (3.93, 8-2) is a big reason for those K:BB numbers having struck out 65 and walked only nine in his 11 starts. Jose Beckett has mixed a few poor outings with some strong ones. Tim Wakefield might fare better now that he has Doug Mirabelli back as his catcher. But the rest of the rotation --- Matt Clement, Lenny DiNardo, David Wells --- has been a disaster.

                                Without rookie Jonathan Papelbon there wouldn't be much of a bullpen in Boston this season. Mike Timlin was himself setting up Papelbon, but he's on the DL now and that makes the play of Keith Foulke, Julian Tavarez and Rudy Seanez crucial while Timlin hopefully mends.

                                The offense has not been as strong as recent years when the bats ruled the Beantown roost. Their 58 HR rank 10th in the AL, though the lineup has made up for some of that drop with a .369 OB% (2nd to Yankees) and 276 runs (5th in AL). Getting Coco Crisp back atop the order could help some; getting Jason Varitek (.240) and Alex Gonzalez (.221) to increase their averages 20, 30, 40 points would help even more.

                                David Ortiz leads the club with 14 homers but is batting under .270. Manny Ramirez endured a power outage early on but has cranked out 12 long flies now. Mike Lowell's .321 average is a very pleasant surprise. But Wily Mo Peña, despite a .321 average, has been something of a disappointment at the plate and has shown that he can be a liability defensively even when used at DH.

                                The next couple of weeks could be very important for the Red Sox as they close out a series in Toronto tonight, having dropped the first two games, before heading to Detroit for three and the Bronx for four. Boston then comes home to face the Rangers four times in three days as the two clubs make up an earlier rainout. If Boston can get through that stretch ahead, they have the Twins, Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins and Devil Rays before closing out the first half in Chicago against the White Sox in a rematch of last year's NLDS.
                                Comment
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