MLB Odds: Rays and Tigers Collide in St. Pete
Somehow, someway, the Tigers continue to hang around in the playoff hunt. Detroit has just the seventh-best record in the AL yet is only two games out of the AL Central lead. The Tigers could be in for a fall now, however, with a third of their regulars on the DL. Tampa Bay owns the second-best record in baseball, yet sits three games out of the AL East lead with the Yankees following the Tigers on the slate this weekend.
In my preview of last week’s Tigers-Rangers series, I outlined just how lucky Detroit had been up until this point of the season.
It’s a week later, and the cold reality hasn’t changed with the Tigers (51-46 SU, +2.61 units) taking on the Tampa Bay Rays (59-38 SU, +3.41 units) in a four-game set at Tropicana Field beginning on Monday night.
Detroit has allowed eight more runs than it’s scored this season, putting them ninth in the American League in run differential. Still, despite being a pedestrian baseball team by any statistical evaluation, the Tigers were only two games behind the White Sox in the AL Central heading into the week.
Part of the reason for Detroit’s success is due to the division in which it plays. As much as Chicago has gone on a tear of epic proportions to take over top spot in the Central, is anyone under the illusion that it’s one of the top four or five teams in the AL?
Detroit is also the fifth-worst road wager on the MLB betting odds board, making them a prohibitive bet against Tampa Bay this week. The Tigers are only 16-29 against the moneyline away from Comerica Park, down -13.06 units for backers.
Thing is, the numbers are starting to catch up to Detroit on the scoreboard and in the standings. The Tigers have dropped 10 of their last 13 games against the moneyline, and now, a bigger challenge is on the way.
The injury bug is hitting Detroit, and it’s the last thing that needs to happen for a club that’s in the playoff race despite ranking 19th in runs per game (4.42) and 22nd in team ERA (4.32).
Magglio Ordoñez (.304/12 home runs/.852 OPS) is on the 15-day disabled list after breaking his right ankle in Saturday’s 3-2 loss to Toronto, and is expected to be out 6-8 weeks. Ordoñez joins Carlos Guillen (right calf strain) and Brandon Inge (broken hand) on the 15-day DL.
The Tigers’ offense is average at best as it is. Take the third, sixth, and seventh place hitters out of the lineup, and it’s easy to see Detroit falling in the standings – and on the MLB moneylist.
The good news is the Rays are the fifth-worst home bet this season after starting the year at 26-20 SU (-9.17 units) at the Trop.
That said, there’s only one spot to consider the Tigers in the four-game series, and that’s for Tuesday night’s second game (7:10 PM ET) when Justin Verlander (12-5, 3.76 ERA) takes the ball against James Shields (8-9, 4.90 ERA).
Max Scherzer (7-7, 4.43 ERA) throws for Detroit in Monday night’s series opener (7:10 PM ET, ESPN), while Tampa Bay turns to Matt Garza (10-5, 4.36 ERA). The Tigers are only 1-8 against the moneyline in Scherzer’s nine road starts this season, during which the righthander’s posted a 5.61 ERA.
Garza is coming off one of his worst outings of the season, but he’s been one of the most dependable wagers in the AL lately. The Rays have cashed seven of his last nine starts overall.
Oddsmakers opened Tampa Bay as -165 favorites for Monday night’s game, with Detroit priced at +145. The total was listed at 8½.
Like Scherzer and much of Detroit’s staff, Verlander has been a much better pitcher at Comerica Park than on the road. Still, he represents the Tigers’ best chance at a payday this week, if only because Shields is going for the Rays.
Shields has a 5.59 ERA at Tropicana Field this season, and Tampa Bay is only 3-7 in his last 10 trips to the bump.
Detroit had yet to announce its starters for the Wednesday night (7:10 PM ET) or the Thursday afternoon (12:10 PM ET) games, although you can expect Rick Porcello (4-8, 5.55 ERA) to get the call in one of the contests.
Jeff Niemann (8-3, 2.95 ERA) is Tampa Bay’s starter on Wednesday night, while David Price (13-5, 2.90 ERA) toes the rubber in the getaway game. Price sports a 2.04 ERA at home this season.
This is the first meeting between the teams this season. The Tigers took five of seven from the Rays last season, including all three in Tampa Bay.
Somehow, someway, the Tigers continue to hang around in the playoff hunt. Detroit has just the seventh-best record in the AL yet is only two games out of the AL Central lead. The Tigers could be in for a fall now, however, with a third of their regulars on the DL. Tampa Bay owns the second-best record in baseball, yet sits three games out of the AL East lead with the Yankees following the Tigers on the slate this weekend.
In my preview of last week’s Tigers-Rangers series, I outlined just how lucky Detroit had been up until this point of the season.
It’s a week later, and the cold reality hasn’t changed with the Tigers (51-46 SU, +2.61 units) taking on the Tampa Bay Rays (59-38 SU, +3.41 units) in a four-game set at Tropicana Field beginning on Monday night.
Detroit has allowed eight more runs than it’s scored this season, putting them ninth in the American League in run differential. Still, despite being a pedestrian baseball team by any statistical evaluation, the Tigers were only two games behind the White Sox in the AL Central heading into the week.
Part of the reason for Detroit’s success is due to the division in which it plays. As much as Chicago has gone on a tear of epic proportions to take over top spot in the Central, is anyone under the illusion that it’s one of the top four or five teams in the AL?
Detroit is also the fifth-worst road wager on the MLB betting odds board, making them a prohibitive bet against Tampa Bay this week. The Tigers are only 16-29 against the moneyline away from Comerica Park, down -13.06 units for backers.
Thing is, the numbers are starting to catch up to Detroit on the scoreboard and in the standings. The Tigers have dropped 10 of their last 13 games against the moneyline, and now, a bigger challenge is on the way.
The injury bug is hitting Detroit, and it’s the last thing that needs to happen for a club that’s in the playoff race despite ranking 19th in runs per game (4.42) and 22nd in team ERA (4.32).
Magglio Ordoñez (.304/12 home runs/.852 OPS) is on the 15-day disabled list after breaking his right ankle in Saturday’s 3-2 loss to Toronto, and is expected to be out 6-8 weeks. Ordoñez joins Carlos Guillen (right calf strain) and Brandon Inge (broken hand) on the 15-day DL.
The Tigers’ offense is average at best as it is. Take the third, sixth, and seventh place hitters out of the lineup, and it’s easy to see Detroit falling in the standings – and on the MLB moneylist.
The good news is the Rays are the fifth-worst home bet this season after starting the year at 26-20 SU (-9.17 units) at the Trop.
That said, there’s only one spot to consider the Tigers in the four-game series, and that’s for Tuesday night’s second game (7:10 PM ET) when Justin Verlander (12-5, 3.76 ERA) takes the ball against James Shields (8-9, 4.90 ERA).
Max Scherzer (7-7, 4.43 ERA) throws for Detroit in Monday night’s series opener (7:10 PM ET, ESPN), while Tampa Bay turns to Matt Garza (10-5, 4.36 ERA). The Tigers are only 1-8 against the moneyline in Scherzer’s nine road starts this season, during which the righthander’s posted a 5.61 ERA.
Garza is coming off one of his worst outings of the season, but he’s been one of the most dependable wagers in the AL lately. The Rays have cashed seven of his last nine starts overall.
Oddsmakers opened Tampa Bay as -165 favorites for Monday night’s game, with Detroit priced at +145. The total was listed at 8½.
Like Scherzer and much of Detroit’s staff, Verlander has been a much better pitcher at Comerica Park than on the road. Still, he represents the Tigers’ best chance at a payday this week, if only because Shields is going for the Rays.
Shields has a 5.59 ERA at Tropicana Field this season, and Tampa Bay is only 3-7 in his last 10 trips to the bump.
Detroit had yet to announce its starters for the Wednesday night (7:10 PM ET) or the Thursday afternoon (12:10 PM ET) games, although you can expect Rick Porcello (4-8, 5.55 ERA) to get the call in one of the contests.
Jeff Niemann (8-3, 2.95 ERA) is Tampa Bay’s starter on Wednesday night, while David Price (13-5, 2.90 ERA) toes the rubber in the getaway game. Price sports a 2.04 ERA at home this season.
This is the first meeting between the teams this season. The Tigers took five of seven from the Rays last season, including all three in Tampa Bay.