MLB Series Odds: Twins Visit Tigers in Motown
Minnesota's fall from grace the last month has opened the door for an exciting three-way race in the AL Central. Friday finds the Twins and Tigers opening a crucial weekend set in Motown.
It’s been a while since we’ve had good things to say about the American League Central. But we’ve passed the halfway point of the 2010 MLB campaign, and there are three good teams fighting for the division lead.
The Detroit Tigers (46-37, 8.31 units) are in first place, followed closely by the Chicago White Sox (46-38, 6.48 units) and the Minnesota Twins (45-40, -2.09 units).
Four years have already passed since the Tigers lost the World Series to the upstart St. Louis Cardinals in five disappointing games. Pitchers Justin Verlander (3.97 xFIP) and Jeremy Bonderman (4.45 xFIP) are still around, and Magglio Ordoñez (.858 OPS) is among the holdovers in the field. But the 2006 team didn’t have a hitter the quality of Miguel Cabrera (1.070 OPS). And with all due respect to Todd Jones, he wasn’t the same level of closer then as Jose Valverde (3.61 xFIP) is now.
The Twins have won the division five times in nine years with Ron Gardenhire as their manager, including last year. But they only made it to the AL Championship Series once, in 2002. Their playoff record since then is 2-12. Aside from the 2005 White Sox, the Central champs haven’t won the World Series since the Twins beat the Atlanta Braves in 1991. Ah, those salad days.
Could the Twins finally reach those lofty heights again this year? They’re carrying 10-1 betting odds to win the World Series, well ahead of Chicago (20-1) and Detroit (25-1) in their division. The defending champion New York Yankees are the favorites at 10-3. Minnesota is fifth in the majors in team OPS at .767; Detroit is virtually identical at .766.
However, the Twins are also No. 8 overall in pitching with a 4.14 team xFIP, while Detroit ranks No. 25 with a 4.58 xFIP. And the Tigers only have one pitching matchup in their upcoming three-game series with Minnesota that could be considered favorable.
Francisco Liriano vs. Justin Verlander
Friday, July 9, 7:05 p.m. ET
It isn’t this one, although the MLB betting value may be with Detroit regardless. Verlander is the best starter on the club, striking out 8.43 batters per nine innings and compiling a 12-5 team record, good for 5.60 units in earnings.
But his performance is being dwarfed this year by Liriano (2.88 xFIP, 9.88 K/9), who has rediscovered the form he showed as a rookie in 2006 before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Chalk has been Liriano’s enemy, though. Minnesota is just 8-8 with him on the mound for a deficit of three units, and the 'under' is 10-5-1 in his 16 starts.
Nick Blackburn vs. Jeremy Bonderman
Saturday, July 10, 4:10 p.m. ET
This is more like it for Tigers supporters. Although Bonderman’s been dogged by injuries since his World Series appearance, he’s back in the starting rotation this year, and the Tigers are 8-7 in his 15 appearances for 1.53 units of profit. Blackburn (5.15 xFIP) has struggled somewhat since signing a four-year contract extension in March; his walk rate per nine innings is up from 1.79 to 2.52, strikeouts are down from 4.29 to 3.19, and home runs are up from 1.09 to 1.45. But Minnesota is still 2.38 units to the good on a team record of 9-7 with Blackburn on the hill.
Carl Pavano vs. Andrew Oliver
Sunday, July 11, 1:05 p.m. ET
Pavano (4.02 xFIP) is the poster child for injured pitchers. He was a World Series winner with the Florida Marlins in 2003 and an All-Star the next year, but his move to the Yankees was a colossal failure thanks to shoulder problems, broken ribs and even a case of bruised buttocks. However, Pavano’s back in the saddle after successful Tommy John surgery in 2007. The Twins are 10-7 behind Pavano this year and 1.5 units in the black.
Oliver, a 22-year-old southpaw, is a raw rookie for Detroit making his fourth start in the bigs while Rick Porcello works on his troubles in the minors. Oliver’s career began with two quality starts that turned into Detroit losses; the Tigers (-184) won his third start 12-9 over the Baltimore Orioles even though Oliver only lasted 1.2 innings.
Minnesota's fall from grace the last month has opened the door for an exciting three-way race in the AL Central. Friday finds the Twins and Tigers opening a crucial weekend set in Motown.
It’s been a while since we’ve had good things to say about the American League Central. But we’ve passed the halfway point of the 2010 MLB campaign, and there are three good teams fighting for the division lead.
The Detroit Tigers (46-37, 8.31 units) are in first place, followed closely by the Chicago White Sox (46-38, 6.48 units) and the Minnesota Twins (45-40, -2.09 units).
Four years have already passed since the Tigers lost the World Series to the upstart St. Louis Cardinals in five disappointing games. Pitchers Justin Verlander (3.97 xFIP) and Jeremy Bonderman (4.45 xFIP) are still around, and Magglio Ordoñez (.858 OPS) is among the holdovers in the field. But the 2006 team didn’t have a hitter the quality of Miguel Cabrera (1.070 OPS). And with all due respect to Todd Jones, he wasn’t the same level of closer then as Jose Valverde (3.61 xFIP) is now.
The Twins have won the division five times in nine years with Ron Gardenhire as their manager, including last year. But they only made it to the AL Championship Series once, in 2002. Their playoff record since then is 2-12. Aside from the 2005 White Sox, the Central champs haven’t won the World Series since the Twins beat the Atlanta Braves in 1991. Ah, those salad days.
Could the Twins finally reach those lofty heights again this year? They’re carrying 10-1 betting odds to win the World Series, well ahead of Chicago (20-1) and Detroit (25-1) in their division. The defending champion New York Yankees are the favorites at 10-3. Minnesota is fifth in the majors in team OPS at .767; Detroit is virtually identical at .766.
However, the Twins are also No. 8 overall in pitching with a 4.14 team xFIP, while Detroit ranks No. 25 with a 4.58 xFIP. And the Tigers only have one pitching matchup in their upcoming three-game series with Minnesota that could be considered favorable.
Francisco Liriano vs. Justin Verlander
Friday, July 9, 7:05 p.m. ET
It isn’t this one, although the MLB betting value may be with Detroit regardless. Verlander is the best starter on the club, striking out 8.43 batters per nine innings and compiling a 12-5 team record, good for 5.60 units in earnings.
But his performance is being dwarfed this year by Liriano (2.88 xFIP, 9.88 K/9), who has rediscovered the form he showed as a rookie in 2006 before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Chalk has been Liriano’s enemy, though. Minnesota is just 8-8 with him on the mound for a deficit of three units, and the 'under' is 10-5-1 in his 16 starts.
Nick Blackburn vs. Jeremy Bonderman
Saturday, July 10, 4:10 p.m. ET
This is more like it for Tigers supporters. Although Bonderman’s been dogged by injuries since his World Series appearance, he’s back in the starting rotation this year, and the Tigers are 8-7 in his 15 appearances for 1.53 units of profit. Blackburn (5.15 xFIP) has struggled somewhat since signing a four-year contract extension in March; his walk rate per nine innings is up from 1.79 to 2.52, strikeouts are down from 4.29 to 3.19, and home runs are up from 1.09 to 1.45. But Minnesota is still 2.38 units to the good on a team record of 9-7 with Blackburn on the hill.
Carl Pavano vs. Andrew Oliver
Sunday, July 11, 1:05 p.m. ET
Pavano (4.02 xFIP) is the poster child for injured pitchers. He was a World Series winner with the Florida Marlins in 2003 and an All-Star the next year, but his move to the Yankees was a colossal failure thanks to shoulder problems, broken ribs and even a case of bruised buttocks. However, Pavano’s back in the saddle after successful Tommy John surgery in 2007. The Twins are 10-7 behind Pavano this year and 1.5 units in the black.
Oliver, a 22-year-old southpaw, is a raw rookie for Detroit making his fourth start in the bigs while Rick Porcello works on his troubles in the minors. Oliver’s career began with two quality starts that turned into Detroit losses; the Tigers (-184) won his third start 12-9 over the Baltimore Orioles even though Oliver only lasted 1.2 innings.