MLB Odds: Phillies Limp Into Braves Series
Times are tough right now for the Phillies. After missing shortstop Jimmy Rollins much of the first three months, Charlie Manuel has seen two more of his infielders sent to the DL with the loss of second baseman Chase Utley and third baseman Placido Polanco. Philadelphia will look to cut into Atlanta's lead on Monday night at home when Roy Halladay takes to the Citizens Bank Park bump in the ESPN broadcast.
We appear to have fallen into a time warp back to the 2005 baseball season.
The Atlanta Braves are back in first place in the National League East at 48-34, collecting 9.47 units in earnings for their faithful supporters. The Philadelphia Phillies, on the other hand, have slipped to third place in the East at 42-38, sinking 8.60 units into the red against the betting odds.
Things may be about to get worse for the Phillies. All-star second baseman Chase Utley (.915 OPS) tore a ligament in his right thumb while sliding into second base in last Monday’s 7-3 loss to the Cincinnati Reds (-124 at home). Utley will be out eight weeks; third baseman Placido Polanco (.782 OPS) is also out 3-4 weeks with a sore left elbow, and catcher Brian Schneider (.728 OPS) is day-to-day with a sprained right thumb.
The Phillies should be able to weather the loss of Polanco, even though replacement Greg Dobbs is struggling with a .467 OPS. Utley’s injury is more problematic. His spot on the diamond is being filled by Wilson Valdez (.702 OPS), who is playing for his sixth MLB team since joining the majors in 2004.
This is on a team that ranks 11th in the majors with a .745 team OPS. The Braves are not far behind in 16th place (.737 OPS) and have a pair of key injuries of their own in super-rookie Jason Heyward (.821 OPS) and Nate McLouth (.577 OPS).
But Atlanta is getting superior pitching this year, fifth in the majors with a 3.68 ERA (1.30 WHIP). The Phillies are 12th overall in pitching with a 3.96 ERA (1.28 WHIP). They’ll need better pitching than that to compensate for Utley’s absence; fortunately for Philadelphia, the top of the rotation is ready to face the Braves in a key three-game series, with Monday night’s opener broadcast on ESPN.
Derek Lowe vs. Roy Halladay
Monday, July 5, 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Lowe put up some really good numbers in his four years with the Los Angeles Dodgers, aided somewhat by the pitcher-friendly confines at Chavez Ravine. Turner Field is a bit less forgiving; Lowe’s xFIP jumped from 3.35 in 2008 to 4.19 in 2009 and up again to 4.25 this year, but that’s still good enough for the Braves to go 10-7 in his starts and earn 1.65 units.
Halladay (3.04 xFIP) is every bit as good as he was with the Toronto Blue Jays, but even with his perfect game on May 29, the Phillies have lost six of his last nine starts. Halladay chalkeaters are 5.42 units in the hole on a team record of 9-8.
Jair Jurrjens vs. Cole Hamels
Tuesday, July 6, 7:05 p.m. ET
This will be Jurrjens’ second start since spending two months on the DL with a hamstring injury. He looked good over five innings against the Washington Nationals, earning a 4-1 victory. That only improves his xFIP to 5.16; however, that’s a small sample size that includes a horrible 17-2 loss to the San Diego Padres on April 12.
Hamels (3.82 xFIP) is enjoying his fifth straight excellent season with the Phillies, but his teammates are once again leaving him out to dry with just 4.00 runs of support per game. The 'under' is 9-2 in his last 11 starts.
Kris Medlen vs. Jamie Moyer
Wednesday, July 7, 7:05 p.m. ET
Medlen (3.79 xFIP) has pitched up a storm for Atlanta since joining the parent club as a rookie reliever last year. He was promoted to the starting rotation to replace Jurrjens, and he gets to keep his job after leading the Braves to nine wins in his 10 starts – beginning with a 4-1 victory over the Phillies on May 8. That leaves Medlen fifth on the MLB money list at press time with 8.70 units in earnings. Moyer (4.41 xFIP) is the same pitcher at age 47 that he’s ever been, but after suffering groin and abdominal tears last September, he’s placed more of an emphasis on throwing strikes. That’s allowed Moyer to go deeper into games, throwing six quality starts in his last seven appearances.
Times are tough right now for the Phillies. After missing shortstop Jimmy Rollins much of the first three months, Charlie Manuel has seen two more of his infielders sent to the DL with the loss of second baseman Chase Utley and third baseman Placido Polanco. Philadelphia will look to cut into Atlanta's lead on Monday night at home when Roy Halladay takes to the Citizens Bank Park bump in the ESPN broadcast.
We appear to have fallen into a time warp back to the 2005 baseball season.
The Atlanta Braves are back in first place in the National League East at 48-34, collecting 9.47 units in earnings for their faithful supporters. The Philadelphia Phillies, on the other hand, have slipped to third place in the East at 42-38, sinking 8.60 units into the red against the betting odds.
Things may be about to get worse for the Phillies. All-star second baseman Chase Utley (.915 OPS) tore a ligament in his right thumb while sliding into second base in last Monday’s 7-3 loss to the Cincinnati Reds (-124 at home). Utley will be out eight weeks; third baseman Placido Polanco (.782 OPS) is also out 3-4 weeks with a sore left elbow, and catcher Brian Schneider (.728 OPS) is day-to-day with a sprained right thumb.
The Phillies should be able to weather the loss of Polanco, even though replacement Greg Dobbs is struggling with a .467 OPS. Utley’s injury is more problematic. His spot on the diamond is being filled by Wilson Valdez (.702 OPS), who is playing for his sixth MLB team since joining the majors in 2004.
This is on a team that ranks 11th in the majors with a .745 team OPS. The Braves are not far behind in 16th place (.737 OPS) and have a pair of key injuries of their own in super-rookie Jason Heyward (.821 OPS) and Nate McLouth (.577 OPS).
But Atlanta is getting superior pitching this year, fifth in the majors with a 3.68 ERA (1.30 WHIP). The Phillies are 12th overall in pitching with a 3.96 ERA (1.28 WHIP). They’ll need better pitching than that to compensate for Utley’s absence; fortunately for Philadelphia, the top of the rotation is ready to face the Braves in a key three-game series, with Monday night’s opener broadcast on ESPN.
Derek Lowe vs. Roy Halladay
Monday, July 5, 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Lowe put up some really good numbers in his four years with the Los Angeles Dodgers, aided somewhat by the pitcher-friendly confines at Chavez Ravine. Turner Field is a bit less forgiving; Lowe’s xFIP jumped from 3.35 in 2008 to 4.19 in 2009 and up again to 4.25 this year, but that’s still good enough for the Braves to go 10-7 in his starts and earn 1.65 units.
Halladay (3.04 xFIP) is every bit as good as he was with the Toronto Blue Jays, but even with his perfect game on May 29, the Phillies have lost six of his last nine starts. Halladay chalkeaters are 5.42 units in the hole on a team record of 9-8.
Jair Jurrjens vs. Cole Hamels
Tuesday, July 6, 7:05 p.m. ET
This will be Jurrjens’ second start since spending two months on the DL with a hamstring injury. He looked good over five innings against the Washington Nationals, earning a 4-1 victory. That only improves his xFIP to 5.16; however, that’s a small sample size that includes a horrible 17-2 loss to the San Diego Padres on April 12.
Hamels (3.82 xFIP) is enjoying his fifth straight excellent season with the Phillies, but his teammates are once again leaving him out to dry with just 4.00 runs of support per game. The 'under' is 9-2 in his last 11 starts.
Kris Medlen vs. Jamie Moyer
Wednesday, July 7, 7:05 p.m. ET
Medlen (3.79 xFIP) has pitched up a storm for Atlanta since joining the parent club as a rookie reliever last year. He was promoted to the starting rotation to replace Jurrjens, and he gets to keep his job after leading the Braves to nine wins in his 10 starts – beginning with a 4-1 victory over the Phillies on May 8. That leaves Medlen fifth on the MLB money list at press time with 8.70 units in earnings. Moyer (4.41 xFIP) is the same pitcher at age 47 that he’s ever been, but after suffering groin and abdominal tears last September, he’s placed more of an emphasis on throwing strikes. That’s allowed Moyer to go deeper into games, throwing six quality starts in his last seven appearances.
